2020 Focus No. 01When trade ministers meet in the United States(Seattle ) late this year, they may launch a newround of global trade talks under the auspices of the World Trade Organization (WTO). If the ministers indeed initiate this “millennium round,” agriculture will be part of it. Otherwise, agricultural negotiations will proceed on their own, since Article 20 of the Uruguay Round (UR) Agreement on Agriculture states that agricultural negotiations should be resumedduring1999.
Agriculture was key to the conclusion of the Uruguay Round. Along with textiles and apparel, intellectual property, and services, it was a critical component of the complex reformpackage neededtogarner support fromthe many countries involved.
The world environment has changed substantially since the completion of the UR negotiations. The European Union (EU) is expanding its membership. Regional and subregional trade agreements in Africa, the Americas, and Asia are increasing their prominence. In agriculture, the EU, Japan, U.S. and have undertaken some market-oriented reforms, while many developing countries have initiated or continued the process of policy reform aimed at more market competitionandmacroeconomic stability.
Yet the horizon is not cloudless. The U.S. trade deficit is headed toward historic highs andthe president has yet tosecure “fast-track” negotiating authority, which is considered necessary for serious trade negotiations. Although the U.S. has implemented newdomestic agricultural policies consistent with UR agreements, there are strong pressures to go back to more distorting programs. The EU appears set to implement further reforms to its Common Agricultural Policy, but the changes proposed will still impose important budgetary and trade burdens on those countries and the rest of the world. Asia, the largest source of net demand for world agricultural products, has been hit by a crippling financial crisis that has spread to other countries. The crisis highlights the complexity of international finances and couldpose a threat togreater market openness. The world economy is decelerating and, after years of fighting inflation, deflationhas emergedas a key concern. All these developments will shape the nature and pace of the new round of negotiations on agriculture andother trade issues as well.
Full Text of all Briefs
Individual Briefs in Focus 01:
- Eugenio Diaz-Bonilla and Sherman Robinson
- Eugenio Diaz-Bonilla and Lucio Reca
- Marcus Noland
- Natasha Mukherjee and Rebecca Lee Harris
- Ulrike Grote and Peter Wehrheim
- Stefan Tangermann
- Dale Hathaway
- Eugenio Diaz-Bonilla, Marcelle Thomas, and Valeria Piñeiro
- Kym Anderson