Dr. Sara Scherr, Visiting Fellow, University of Maryland

Dr. Scherr summarized and evaluated the results of over 80 recent studies on the food security-related impacts of soil degradation in developing countries, and predicted future soil degradation concerns in the context of expected changes in population and agricultural economies. Her analysis concludes that soil degradation is likely to pose only a modest threat to international food trade between now and 2020, due to the global capacity for substitution and the dominance of temperate producers. But it could have significant effects on national agricultural supply in many countries, and on global and particularly national and local prices. The greatest impact will be the dampened economic growth effects of lower farm incomes, especially in countries and sub-regions where agriculture is the "engine of economic growth." The greatest threats to nutrition and food consumption by poor farmers will be in the densely populated marginal lands of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Total agricultural land loss predicted by 2020 does not pose a threat to global wealth in soil assets; however, for countries with a limited land base, conserving farmland quality should be a strategic long-term food security concern.

The greatest future economic problems due to soil degradation are likely to be found in the densely-populated marginal lands. To address these will require large-scale mobilization of land-improving investment and new technology development. Second in importance will be degradation of irrigated lands through salinization and waterlogging; technical and institutional solutions are largely known, but will depend on economic incentives and political leadership. In high quality rainfed lands, farmers are likely to respond actively to degradation with improved land management, where economic and policy environments are generally supportive of agricultural development. Agricultural land quality and preservation in urban and peri-urban areas will become more problematic, and call for institutional innovations. Soil degradation in lightly-populated marginal lands is likely to pose greater environmental than socioeconomic costs; which may be addressed through new technical and institutional approaches.

Download the Brief and Discussion Paper

2020 Brief 58

2020 Discussion Paper 27