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VISUALS
A Visual Guide to the Future World Food Situation
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1. About 98 percent of the increase in world population between 1995 and 2020 will occur in the developing world. The absolute population increase will be largest in Asia, 1.1 billion, but the relative increase will be greatest in Sub-Saharan Africa, 80 percent.
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2. Much of the population growth in coming decades is expected to take place in the cities of the developing world. By 2020 more than half of the developing world's population will be living in urban areas.
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3. Prospects for economic growth appear favorable in the developing world. IFPRI projects total income in the developing world to increase at an average of 4.3 percent annually between 1995 and 2020, which would double per capita incomes to more than $2,200.
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4. Global demand for cereals is projected to increase by 39 percent between 1995 and 2020 to reach 2,466 million tons.
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5. Global demand for meat is projected to increase by 58 percent to reach 313 million tons. About 85 percent of this increase will come from developing countries.
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6. By 2020 developing countries as a group are forecast to demand twice as much cereals and meat products as developed countries.
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7. Per capita demand for cereals and meat products in developing countries will continue to lag far behind that in developing countries. By 2020 a developing-country person will consume less than half the amount of cereals consumed by a developed-country person and slightly more than one-third of the meat products.
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8. Per capita demand for meat is projected to increase by 40 percent in the developing world between 1995 and 2020. The increase will be largest in East Asia and smallest in South Asia. By 2020 East Asia's per capita demand for meat would be as much as seven times that of South Asia.
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9. The world's farmers will have to produce 40 percent more grain in 2020. Increases in cultivated areas are expected to contribute only one-fifth of the global cereal production needed to meet demand between 1995 and 2020. Higher crop yields will be required to bring about the necessary production increases.
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10. Growth in farmers' cereal yields is slowing in both developed and developing countries from the heyday of the Green Revolution in the 1970s.
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11. While the gap in average cereal yields between the developed and developing countries is slowly beginning to narrow, it is widening considerably within the developing world as Sub-Saharan Africa lags further behind.
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12. Despite large increases, cereal production in the developing world will not keep pace with demand. Net cereal imports by developing countries as a group will increase by 80 percent between 1995 and 2020 to fill the gap between production and demand.
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13. About 60 percent of the developing world's net cereal imports in 2020 will come from the United States.
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14. Under the most likely scenario, the number of malnourished children will decline by only 15 percent from 160 million in 1995 to 135 million in 2020. Sub-Saharan Africa, the only region where the number of malnourished children is forecast to increase, and South Asia will remain "hot spots" of child malnutrition and food insecurity.
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15. The number of malnourished children in the developing world as a whole declined from 204 million in 1970 to 167 million in 1995. The actual number of malnourished children is still rising in many countries. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the number of children thus affected rose by 70 percent over this quarter century.
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16. While the prevalence of malnutrition in the developing world as a whole fell from 46.5 percent to 31 percent between 1970 and 1995, the pace of change is slowing. During 1970-85 the prevalence of malnutrition fell by 0.8 percentage points per year; during 1985-95 it fell by 0.3 points.
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17. The prevalence of child malnutrition in the developing world fell from 46.5 percent to 31 percent between 1970 and 1995. Together, improvements in women's education and status have contributed to more than half of the reduction in the prevalence of child malnutrition.
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18. About 1.97 billion hectares (23 percent of globally used land) has been degraded from World War II to 1990. While the effects of soil degradation on food consumption by the rural poor, agricultural markets, agricultural income, and in some cases national wealth are significant, degradation appears not to threaten global food supply by 2020.
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19. Global water withdrawals are projected to increase by 35 percent between 1995 and 2020 to reach 5,060 billion cubic meters. A significant structural change in demand for water will occur in developing countries as growth in domestic and industrial uses reduces the share for agricultural uses.
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20. The depletion of nutrients from Africa's agricultural soils is contributing to stagnant or declining crop production. Over 8 million tons of nutrients are lost every year, representing a total loss of US$1.5 billion per year.
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21. Fertilizer use has increased in both developed and developing countries, but growth was much faster in developing countries, which increased their share of global fertilizer consumption from 10 percent in 1959/60 to 43 percent in 1989/90. By 2020 fertilizer demand in developing countries is forecast to reach 122 million tons.
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22. While total development aid dropped nearly 15 percent between 1995 and 1996, agricultural aid plummeted almost 50 percent in real terms over 1986-96.
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23. A close relationship exists between conflict and food production. Sub-Saharan African countries experiencing conflict during 1970-93 produced 12.4 percent less food per person in war years than in peacetime. Peace would have added 2 to 5 percent to Africa's food production per capita per year since 1980.
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24. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to experience the most rapid growth in demand for roots and tubers between 1993 and 2020. Two-thirds of the increase will come from cassava, reflecting its important role in many African diets.
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25. While demand for roots and tubers in developed countries will remain virtually unchanged between 1993 and 2020, it will increase by almost 60 percent in developing countries, driven to a large extent by increases in demand for cassava, followed by potato. Roots and tubers will play economically important and increasingly diversified roles in developing-country food systems over the next two decades.
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To print a file containing all visuals above, with each graph on a separate page:
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