• Discussion Papers
    The 1991 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Zimbabwe that we document in this paper is intended to provide benchmark data for economy-wide analysis under the MERRISA Project. Its construction is based on a three-step process: (1) building a macro ...
  • Discussion Papers
    As part of the Tanzania country study being done under the IFPRI research project on Macroeconomic Reform and Regional Integration in Southern Africa (MERRISA), a social accounting matrix (SAM) has been constructed for the base year 1992. A SAM ...
  • Discussion Papers
    This paper documents the construction of the 1995 Social Accounting Matrix for Zambia (ZAMSAM). The SAM incorporates economy-wide data in a consistent framework and provides the benchmark data for the analysis under the MERRISA project. Data ...
  • Discussion Papers
    The last few years have seen a proliferation of attempts by various institutions to create a framework that would enable analysts to have a broad overview of all transactions in the Malawian economy. It was decided that 1998, the most recent ...
  • Discussion Papers
    This paper documents the features of a 1998 social accounting matrix (SAM) for Thailand. It begins with a description of the overall economy both via a macro SAM and a national accounts balance sheet. The macro SAM was the result of aggregating a ...
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    This paper provides a detailed documentation of an applied CGE model of Malawi - the first ever for Malawi - developed in the context of the project “Collaborative Research and Capacity Strengthening for Multi-Sector Policy Analysis in ...
  • Discussion Papers
    Since the late 1980s, Mexico has liberalized its agricultural sector, moving from a system of price supports, producer subsidies and consumer subsidies to a less distorting scheme in which market forces play a greater role. Coinciding with these ...
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    This working paper documents the construction of a 1993-94 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Bangladesh. The SAM distinguishes 10 agricultural sectors -including two different kinds of rice technology - and 19 manufacturing sectors, out of 43 ...
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    This paper uses a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the short-run effects of alternative food- subsidy scenarios. Savings from reduced subsidy spending are used to reduce direct taxes uniformly for all household types. The ...
  • Discussion Papers
    Changes in real wages are often used to measure welfare changes. There is a problem, however, in interpreting measures of changes in factor returns when analyzing the impact of changes in taxes - such as tariffs and indirect taxes - that operate ...
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    Using a regionally disaggregated computable general equilibrium model, we analyze the differential welfare impacts of a cash transfer program targeted at rural areas. The direct effect of the transfers decreases regional income differentials, but ...
  • Discussion Papers
    Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are used widely in policy analysis. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to and facilitate the use of CGE models. The paper includes a detailed presentation of a “standard” CGE model ...
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    “The paper reports on the construction and testing of a Standard International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) computable general equilibrium model for South Africa. A 1998 social accounting matrix (SAM) for South Africa is compiled ...
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    After protracted and difficult negotiations, agreement was recently reached on the dimensions of a South African-EU free trade deal. Because of South Africa’s prominence in the sub-region, implementation of this agreement will have an ...
  • Discussion Papers
    The comparative effects on GDP and household incomes associated with various pathways of agricultural growth in Zimbabwe are investigated, based on SAM (social accounting matrix) multiplier analysis. Among the five growth paths considered, the ...
  • Discussion Papers
    Events in Zimbabwe during seven years from the start of economic reforms in 1991 have highlighted the contradictions in the ideologies underlying economic development and institutional reform in the country. They have also highlighted the ...
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    This paper examines the role of agriculture and rural development, in general, in the most successful countries of Asia, termed, by the World Bank, the “East Asian Miracle.” The basic hypothesis of the paper is that agricultural ...
  • Discussion Papers
    As in most low-income countries, the majority of the poor population in Viet Nam is found in rural areas, where agriculture provides the primary means of livelihood. It has been argued that an agriculture-based development (ABD) strategy is more ...
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    In this article, we examine the economy-wide effects of three alternative growth paths for Indonesia’s industrial sector using SAM (social accounting matrix) multiplier analysis and CGE (computable general equilibrium) modeling. The context ...
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    With the aid of an intertemporal, multi-region general equilibrium model, the authors study issues of agricultural trade liberalization, growth and capital accumulation in the context of a world economy moving towards a multi-polar structure. ...
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    This study quantitatively analyzes the general equilibrium effects of declines in world demand for tobacco products. The study finds that tobacco exports and production in the three developing countries, Malawi, Zimbabwe, and Turkey, would be ...
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    “This paper assesses the economy-wide impact of implementing and financing a universal or basic income grant (BIG) in South Africa. The various financing scenarios suggested by the proponents of the grant are presented, and these are ...
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    This paper presents an overview of macroeconomic and agricultural trends in Latin America and the Caribbean. It argues that world-level macroeconomic and agricultural cycles, of expansion during the 1960s and 1970s, and stagnation and ...
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    This analysis examines the implications of WTO accession for China’s domestic policies and institutions by identifying some of Chinese agricultural policies and institutional arrangements that may generate conflicts with WTO requirements ...
  • Discussion Papers
    Using a mathematical-programming agricultural-sector model of Egypt, this paper analyzes mechanisms for allocating scarce water and for charging the farmers the Operation and Management (O&M) costs of irrigation and drainage, currently ...
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    The gains to developing countries from agricultural reform in developed countries is found to benefit most, even the net food importers, although the gains vary depending on a country’s trade pattern. This results because the agricultural ...
  • Discussion Papers
    The first section of this paper reviews the most recent evidence on inequality in 18 Latin American countries and shows that in all but four the changes in inequality over the 1990s were small and insignificant. The distribution depends on the ...
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    The question whether production flexibility payments to farmers are likely to be minimally trade distorting is considered in an inter-temporal and economy wide context. Our contribution lies in showing the circumstances, over time, under which a ...
  • Discussion Papers
    Using an agriculture-focused CGE model for Zimbabwe with 1991 as base period, this paper examines quantitatively the income and equity effects of trade liberalization in isolation and in conjunction with potentially complementary changes in ...
  • Discussion Papers
    Differences and similarities in the development paths taken by six East Asian economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, South Korea, and Taiwan) provide a fertile ground for policy analysis from which important lessons are drawn and ...
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    This paper analyzes the economy-wide gains obtainable from the allocation of surface irrigation water to its most productive use, and evaluates a decentralized mechanism for achieving this result in a spatially heterogeneous environment. The ...
  • Discussion Papers
    Weather fluctuations, such as those caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), add to the riskiness associated with agricultural production. Improved predictive capacity may help ameliorate negative impacts of climate and weather shocks ...
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    This paper considers supply decisions by firms in a dynamic setting with adjustment costs and compares the behavior of an optimal control model to that of a rule-based system which relaxes the assumption that agents are explicit optimizers. In ...
  • Discussion Papers
    There is a continuing need to use recent and consistent multisectoral economic data to support policy analysis and the development of economywide models. Updating and estimating input-output tables and social accounting matrices (SAMs), which ...
  • Discussion Papers
    There is a continuing need to use recent and consistent multisectoral economic data to support policy analysis and the development of economywide models. Updating and estimating input-output tables and Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) for a ...
  • Discussion Papers
    Income mobility can be viewed as a first-order Markov process, with a matrix of transition probabilities which measure how individuals move from an income status in time t to a new status in time t+1. Direct estimation of transition matrices is ...
  • Discussion Papers
    This paper presents the construction of a 1996 regionalized Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Mexico. The SAM differentiates production across five regions, four rural and a fifth “national” urban region. The rural regions are ...
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    This paper presents a framework for analyzing the contributions of government policies and exogenous (mostly, external) factors to the observed changes in the relative price of a tradable agricultural product. A decomposition analysis is ...
  • Discussion Papers
    Two sets of issues loom large on the economic horizon of Malawi: poverty alleviation and the country’s vulnerability to shocks emanating from the outside world. In this paper, simulations with a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of ...
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    This study, based on the data of China’s agricultural census of 1997, focuses on the land distribution among rural households and its effects on crop production structure and employment of labor and capital. The Census data show that the ...
  • Discussion Papers
    An important issue in WTO trade negotiations is whether further liberalization of trade and agricultural policies may help or hinder food security in WTO member countries, especially the developing countries. The WTO recognizes various ...
  • Discussion Papers
    In MENA, household food insecurity, which is closely related to poverty and undernourishment, is most severe in rural areas and concentrated within Iraq, Sudan, and Yemen. 25% of the MENA population may be poor and 7% undernourished. The key to ...
  • Discussion Papers
    Countries in Southern Africa have engaged in a variety of trade liberalization initiatives. In this paper, the authors use a multi-country, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the impact of trade liberalization on countries, ...
  • Discussion Papers
    This paper documents the computer code implementing the CE-SAM estimation technique in GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System). It defines the estimation problem in a deterministic setting; extends the approach to include a stochastic treatment ...
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    In this paper, we present a comparative analysis of the extent to which indirect taxes, tariffs, and exchange rates affected relative price incentives for agricultural production in a representative sample of 15 developing countries in the 1990s. ...
  • Discussion Papers
    Advocates of the use of genetic engineering techniques in agriculture contend that this new biotechnology promises increased productivity, better use of natural resources and more nutritious foods. Opponents, on the other hand, are concerned ...
  • Discussion Papers
    This paper analyzes price, production and trade consequences of changing consumer preferences regarding the use of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) in food production. The analytical framework used is an empirical global general equilibrium ...
  • Discussion Papers
    “For the health community, globalization offers opportunities but also poses important challenges. Dramatic progress has been made in the area of health over the past forty years; however, improvements have been unequally distributed across ...
  • Discussion Papers
    This paper presents an applied microsimulation model built on household data with explicit treatment of heterogeneity of skills, labor preferences and opportunities, and consumption preferences at the individual and/or household level, while ...
  • Discussion Papers
    “We analyze the implications of the HIV/AIDS pandemic in Tanzania for labor markets and human capital accumulation. Three analyses are undertaken. First, we examine the 2000/01 Labor Force Survey and compare it with the 1990/91 Labor Force ...
  • Discussion Papers
    As in other countries in the southern Africa region, a human development catastrophe is unfolding in Mozambique. Recently released data estimate HIV prevalence rates amongst the adult population in the year 2000 at around 12% with substantial ...
  • Discussion Papers
    This study constructs a regional CGE model of China to analyze the differential regional impacts of China’s WTO accession on agricultural production, trade, and farmers’ income. The results show that China’s WTO accession will ...
  • Discussion Papers
    This study focuses on the possible impact of the MFA phase-out on the world economy. Starting from analyzing trends in world textile and apparel trade, the study found that the developing countries were a growing factor in world T&A trade in ...
  • Discussion Papers
    This paper has been prepared as part of the Zambia country study of the Macroeconomic and Regional Integration in Southern Africa (MERRISA) project and serves as a background paper for modeling exercises. The paper focuses on analyzing ...
  • Discussion Papers
    Does a restrictive foreign trade regime reduce the effectiveness of agricultural productivity growth in promoting overall income growth and equity? Based on counterfactual simulations using a multi-sector, computable general equilibrium (CGE) ...
  • Discussion Papers
    Three types of trade policy adjustments to deal with an unsustainable current account deficit are examined in this paper for their economywide income and equity effects, based on the results of simulation experiments using a CGE model of the ...
  • Discussion Papers
    Thailand has experienced economic growth well above world averages for about 40 years. It is a challenge to understand the sources of this high growth path, and in particular why growth has not slowed down with assumed decreasing returns to ...
  • Discussion Papers
    Against the background of increasing interest in closer economic relations in the Middle East, the contribution that greater integration of markets might make to improving food security in the region is investigated, using a quantitative ...
  • Discussion Papers
    There is widespread agreement on the need for land reform in Zimbabwe as a means of reducing poverty. This paper assesses the potential consequences of a land-reform scheme that draws on proposals from Zimbabwe’s government in 1998 and ...
  • Discussion Papers
    The tax and subsidy system in Egypt in 1986-88 was very distorted, involving large, sectorally variegated, output taxes and subsidies. In agriculture, there were also major input subsidies and no charges for water. In this paper, an ...
  • Discussion Papers
    In this paper, the impact of alternative development strategies on growth and poverty is assessed in an economywide framework, using Egypt as a case study. The analysis is guided by the following question: By pursuing a development strategy ...
  • Discussion Papers
    “As a result of Zambia’s dependence on copper mining, both the falling world copper price and the possible withdrawal of investment from the mining sector might seriously threaten economic growth and stability. Accordingly, the impact ...
  • Discussion Papers
    Using a Computable General Equilibrium model for Egypt based on data for 1991/92, this paper analyzes the short-run impact of removing price-distorting subsidies for oil products sold domestically and for commodities covered by the consumer ...
  • Discussion Papers
    Trade liberalization in the early 1990s in Bangladesh has enabled the private sector to respond with market-stabilizing inflows of rice and wheat following major production shortfalls. At the same time, easing of restrictions on foreign ...
  • Discussion Papers
    This paper describes, in quantitative terms, the macroeconomic adjustments effectively implemented and accompanying agricultural and overall economic performance, particularly since 1980, in four low-income countries in Southern Africa, namely, ...
  • Discussion Papers
    Using a CGE (computable general equilibrium) model for Zimbabwe with 1991 as base period, this paper examines quantitatively the income and equity effects of macroeconomic reform measures in isolation and in conjunction with potentially ...
  • Discussion Papers
    Improvements in agricultural productivity and reductions in marketing costs in Mozambique are analysed using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The model incorporates detailed marketing margins and separates household demand for ...
  • Discussion Papers
    The effects of trade on women vary by socio-economic characteristics, sector and country. This paper assesses how well such effects can be captured by a gendered social accounting matrix (SAM) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. These ...
  • Discussion Papers
    An important component of the current debate about agriculture trade negotiations is whether further liberalization of trade and agricultural policies may help or hinder food security in WTO member countries. These concerns were formulated first, ...
  • Discussion Papers
    Two empirical regularities in the beef-cattle sector have been observed for a long time. First, the time-series for cattle stock exhibits strong cyclicity with a period of several years. Second, beef supply seesms to be negatively related to ...
  • Discussion Papers
    For the past two decades, Bangladesh has enjoyed steady growth in per capita incomes enabling a significant reduction in poverty. An increase in rice productivity, achieved through a combination of improved seeds, increased fertilizer use, and ...
  • Discussion Papers
    We introduce a maximum entropy approach to parameter estimation for computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The approach applies information theory to estimating a system of nonlinear simultaneous equations. It has a number of advantages. ...
  • Discussion Papers
    The paper examines the impact of industrial protection, agricultural export taxes, and overvaluation of the exchange rate on the balance between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. A variety of agricultural terms-of-trade indices are ...
  • Discussion Papers
    The development of effective and sustainable economic policies for Tanzania requires access to appropriate databases. One such database is a social accounting matrix (SAM) that details the structure of the entire economy, taking into account the ...
  • Discussion Papers
    This paper examines the role of price incentives in the observed decline in cotton production during the 1980s and in the apparent improvement in recent years. The following determinants (in an accounting sense) of the changes in the relative ...
  • Discussion Papers
    This paper presents an approach to reconciling household surveys and national accounts data that starts from the assumption that the macro data represent control totals to which the household data must be reconciled. The economic data gathered in ...
  • Discussion Papers
    This paper presents an agriculture-focused computable general equilibrium model that can be used to analyze the economy-wide impacts of changes in technology, market structure, and the foreign exchange rate on resource allocation, production, and ...
  • Discussion Papers
    This paper presents an agriculture sector focused Computable General Equilibrium (AG-CGE) model for analyzing the economy-wide impacts of changes in technology, protection, and market structure on resource allocation, production, and trade in ...
  • Discussion Papers
    In this study, an economywide model focused on Morocco’s rural economy is used as a laboratory for analyzing issues at the core of such a rural development strategy.The model is used to explore the effects of alternative scenarios for water ...
  • Discussion Papers
    Continued industrialization in China and increase in its agricultural productivity imply that surplus rural workers will to be attracted into non-agricultural production activities and, consequently, will have the opportunity to increase their ...
  • Discussion Papers
    This paper analyzes two potential trade liberalization scenarios - a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) and possible links between MERCOSUR and the European Union (EU) - in a world computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The model also ...
  • Discussion Papers
    Much of the debate over whether or not developing countries gain from regional trade agreements (RTA’s) has focused on two characteristics that are common to developing countries: their relatively high tariffs and their high trade ...
  • Discussion Papers
    This working paper documents the construction of the 1994 and 1995 Mozambican social accounting matrices (SAMs). The aggregate macro-SAM is called MACSAM, and the disaggregated version is MOZAM. With 13 agricultural and two agricultural ...
  • Discussion Papers
    This paper documents the construction of social accounting matrices (SAMs) for Vietnam for 1996 and 1997. The data sources used to construct the SAMs include national accounts statistics, government budget data, the official 1996 input-output ...
  • Discussion Papers
    This paper analyzes the wheat market in South America, with a focus on MERCOSUR. It argues that wheat markets in South America have undergone significant changes over the last decade, driven by the world macroeconomic and agricultural cycle of ...
  • Discussion Papers
    Many of the countries in the Southern Africa region have very sketchy trade data, due to disruptions in data collection (caused by war in the case of Mozambique and sanctions-induced secrecy in South Africa, for instance) or weak statistical ...
  • Discussion Papers
    The spatial dimension of economic policy is often important. However, as opposed to partial-equilibrium multi-region programming models, existing multi-region Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models have rarely explicitly treated geographical ...
  • Discussion Papers
    The Asian financial crisis led to a major devaluation of the Indonesian exchange rate, macro instability, and the need for a “structural adjustment” program. The real devaluation affects prices throughout the economy and has a major ...
  • Discussion Papers
    Current agricultural negotiations in the World Trade Organization are grappling on how to fully integrate agriculture within the general rules for trade in goods. The notion of multifunctionality of agriculture has been suggested as a reason to ...
  • Discussion Papers
    Between 1993 and 1996, two developments occurred in world grain markets which posed a potential threat to the food security of import-dependent developing countries. First, starting in later 1994, real grain prices increased, limiting the ability ...
  • Discussion Papers
    This paper presents a regionally disaggregated computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Mexico in order to examine the differential effects of external shocks across the regions. The model demonstrates how the internal migration regime is ...
  • Discussion Papers
    This paper analyzes the income and equity effects of the dramatic growth in rice yield in the Philippines during the “green revolution” period 1965-1980 using a modified Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) framework. Proportionately larger ...
  • Discussion Papers
    Addressing longer-term issues of economic development in Egypt, the paper employs a dynamically recursive computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the outcomes associated with two types of development approaches over the period ...
  • Discussion Papers
    We compare the impact of alternative domestic and global trade liberalization scenarios on five economies in Southern Africa. The study applies a computable general equilibrium model that employs standardised 12-sector social accounting matrices ...
  • Discussion Papers
    This paper uses a two-country, computable general equilibrium (CGE), trade model to analyze the impact on Mexico and the U.S. of the precipitous peso depreciation in late 1994 and early 1995, and of the policy response to the crisis. The model ...
  • Discussion Papers
    This paper reviews the experience of the use of computable or applied general equilibrium (CGE or AGE) models to affect public policy. The range of issues on which CGE models have had an influence is quite wide, and includes structural adjustment ...
  • Discussion Papers
    In Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models, it is typically assumed that agricultural resources are smoothly substitutable in neoclassical functions, with flexible prices generating market equilibrium in a setting with full resource ...
  • Discussion Papers
    The Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson (HOS) model in international trade theory provides a powerful general-equilibrium paradigm for analyzing the impact of changes in trade on factor returns. In the HOS model, factor returns are determined solely by ...
  • Discussion Papers
    A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to explore alternative scenarios for 1990-2020 in areas critical for Egypt’s economy — productivity growth, investment, foreign trade, and water. The model is formulated as ...
  • Discussion Papers
    Empirical evidence and microeconomic theory suggest that, in many settings, farm household production and consumption decisions are “non-separable.” Non-separability may have important policy implications, including lack of response ...
  • Discussion Papers
    “There is a continuing debate about the role of changes in trade on the evolution of relative wages particularly the skilled-unskilled wage gap. In the 1980’s, the wage gap widened considerably in the United States, and there was an ...
  • Discussion Papers
    We extend the Salter-Swan model to include both factor markets and semi-traded goods. In our model, changes in relative factor prices depend on changes in world commodity prices, factor endowments, and the trade balance. In contrast, only changes ...
  • Discussion Papers
    “New advances in biotechnology have enhanced production of maize, soybeans, and cotton. Consumer reactions to the new technology have been mixed. Both the supply shock, from an increase in productivity or a reduction in input use, and the ...
  • Discussion Papers
    In this study, a dynamically recursive general equilibrium model of Morocco is used to examine alternative trade and domestic policy scenarios involving the implementation of the EU Association Agreement for the period 1998-2012. The model has a ...
  • Discussion Papers
    The debate over the impact of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on world welfare hinges upon (1) whether they are net trade creating or trade diverting and (2) whether they impede multilateral trade liberalization. Theoretical models are ambiguous ...
  • Discussion Papers
    Morocco is currently about to start reducing industrial protection in the context of its association agreement with the European Union. However, agriculture, which represents the major income source for the disfavored rural population, is the ...
  • Discussion Papers
    The 2002 U.S. farm bill has been widely criticized for increasing subsidies with detrimental effects on competing agricultural producers abroad and for undermining U.S. leadership in achieving liberalized world agricultural trade. This paper ...
  • Discussion Papers
    The problem in estimating a social accounting matrix (SAM) for a recent year is to find an efficient and cost-effective way to incorporate and reconcile information from a variety of sources, including data from prior years. Based on information ...
  • Discussion Papers
    The paper presents a “Watershed Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model “for the Olifants River Catchment.” A CGE provides an appropriate framework in which to explore policy alternatives for achieving more efficient water ...
  • Discussion Papers
    Growth in the first post-reform decade in Latin America has been disappointing, largely because of a severe slowdown after 1995 in the countries in South America. Per capita income grew at only .9% per year between 1995 and 1999 compared to 2.7% ...
  • Discussion Papers
    The paper compares the effects of productivity growth in agriculture in a standard CGE model and an adjusted CGE model with special features in order to replicate partial equilibrium behavior of traded agricultural sectors within a general ...
  • Discussion Papers
    The objective of this paper is to present a survey of trade issues in agriculture from the perspective of developing countries. Developing countries are a large percentage of the World Trade Organization (WTO) membership, and agriculture is ...