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  • Discussion Papers (1438)
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  • Project Papers and Notes
    A quantitative risk assessment for the onward transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1
    Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 is endemic in Indonesia, where it is an important cause of disease in commercial, semi-commercial and backyard poultry flocks. It is likely that small-scale broiler farms, which typically have poor ...
  • Project Papers and Notes
    Alignment of poultry sector actors with avian influenza control in Ethiopia
    The outbreak and spread of Asian-lineage highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) from Asia to Europe and Africa in 2003-2007 challenged national disease surveillance and response programs particularly in those countries where infection occurred. ...
  • Project Papers and Notes
    Alignment of poultry sector actors with avian influenza control in Indonesia
    Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was first officially reported in Indonesia in 2004; the disease is now endemic, particularly in the Java, Sumatra, Bali and South Sulawesi Islands. During the early stages of the epidemic, emergency ...
  • Project Papers and Notes
    Alignment of poultry sector actors with avian influenza control in Kenya
    Kenya has a high risk of being infected with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) because it (i) lies along the migratory bird routes, (ii) engages in formal and informal cross-border trade in live birds and other poultry products, (iii) ...
  • Project Papers and Notes
    Analyses of the poultry value chain and its linkages and interactions with HPAI risk factors in Nigeria
    Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has impacts that reverberate throughout the poultry marketing chain. Nigeria suffered waves of HPAI outbreaks that peaked twice in February 2006 and February 2007. The outbreaks affected 3,057 commercial ...
  • Project Papers and Notes
    Economywide impact of avian flu in Ghana
    The primary goal of this paper is to provide a quantitative assessment of the economywide impact of HPAI in Ghana under different scenarios. A dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model for Ghana has been developed for this study, and a ...
  • Project Papers and Notes
    Ghana’s poultry sector value chains and the impacts of HPAI
    Outbreaks of HPAI in poultry have serious implications for food security, employment, and cash income for farmers including smallholders and other stakeholders. The 2007 outbreak of HPAI in Ghana had a multitude of impacts on the livelihoods of ...
  • Project Papers and Notes
    Implications of avian flu for economic development in Kenya
    Kenya is vulnerable to avian flu given its position along migratory bird routes and proximity to other high risk countries. This raises concern about the effect an outbreak could have on economic development. We use a dynamic computable general ...
  • Project Papers and Notes
    Investigating the role of poultry and the impact of HPAI on livelihoods in Ghana
    Since its re-emergence, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 has attracted considerable public and media attention because the viruses involved have been shown to be capable of producing fatal disease in humans. While there is fear that ...
  • Project Papers and Notes
    Mapping the likelihood of introduction and spread of HPAI Virus H5N1 in Africa, Ghana, Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria
    The results of an analysis of the spatial distribution of disease risk and its visual presentation through risk maps allow for the design of targeted and therefore more cost-effective animal disease surveillance strategies. There are various ...
  • Project Papers and Notes
    Mapping the likelihood of introduction and spread of HPAI Virus H5N1 in Indonesia using multicriteria decision modelling
    The spatial distribution of disease risk and its visual presentation through risk maps can assist in the design of targeted animal disease surveillance and control strategies. This approach is particularly useful in situations in which empirical ...
  • Project Papers and Notes
    Poultry value chains and HPAI in Ethiopia
    The Ethiopian poultry sector is almost exclusively dominated by backyard and small-scale production using limited to no inputs in production and which is targeted for either self-consumption or the market. Unlike other parts of the world, there ...
  • Project Papers and Notes
    Poultry value chains and HPAI in Indonesia
    Poultry is an important source of income and protein for poor households in Indonesia. In a normal year, the production of poultry meat in Indonesia is approximately 1.285 million tons per annum, representing around 62% of total domestic meat ...
  • Project Papers and Notes
    Qualitative release and exposure assessment on the risk of HPAI transmission
    This study assessed the risk of transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) between backyard poultry (S4) farms and between S4 and semi-commercial (S3) farms in Kenya. It was designed to complement findings of a study that had been ...
  • Project Papers and Notes
    Qualitative release assessment of the risk of re-introduction of HPAI H5N1 virus from neighbouring countries into Ghana
    By December 2007, there was a continuum of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 affected countries along the West African coast from Cote d’Ivoire to Cameroon. In all, 8 countries in West Africa had recorded HPAI H5N1 (Niger, Burkina ...
  • Project Papers and Notes
    Qualitative risk assessment of HPAI H5N1 transmission between small-scale commercial broiler chicken farms in Bogor, Indonesia
    As part of the DFID-funded Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Reduction Project, a qualitative risk assessment was conducted for risk questions agreed during a stakeholder workshop in November, 2008, related to transmission of HPAI H5N1 between small-scale ...
  • Project Papers and Notes
    Qualitative risk assessment on the transmission of HPAI (H5N1) virus
    The Nigerian poultry industry, comprising both commercial and rural poultry systems, experienced the first highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreak in 2006. This industry provides an affordable source of protein to millions of ...
  • Project Papers and Notes
    Qualitative risk assessments for the risk of introduction of HPAI H5N1 virus into Ethiopia
    As part of the DFID funded Pro-poor HPAI Risk Reduction Project, a qualitative risk assessment was conducted for risk questions, agreed during stakeholders workshop in September, 2008, related to introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza ...
  • Project Papers and Notes
    Surveillance and control of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in Ethiopia
    How does information about a suspected outbreak of avian influenza on the farm level reach the respective authorities? How and through which actors is the response to a confirmed outbreak implemented on the ground? These were the guiding ...
  • Project Papers and Notes
    Surveillance and control of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in Ghana
    How does information about a suspected outbreak of avian influenza on the farm level reach the respective authorities? How and through which actors is the response to a confirmed outbreak implemented on the ground? These were the guiding ...
  • Project Papers and Notes
    Value chain analysis of the Kenyan poultry industry
    The Kenyan poultry industry is characterized by dualism, comprised of both smallholder and large-scale poultry producers. The industry is characterized by two main production systems namely (i) the commercial hybrid poultry production system and ...
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