Key Findings from IFPRI Research Brief, Two Opportunities to Deliver on the Doha Development Pledge
Impact of Full Access to Wealthy-Country Markets *
- Fully opening wealthy-country markets to developing countries could deliver significant benefits. Global income gains would increase from US$ 54.7 billion to US$ 69 billion in 2020, with nearly half of these gains going to least developed countries.
- Middle-income and low-income countries would experience income gains of US$ 23 billion and US$ 7 billion, respectively. Developed countries would gain nearly US$ 39 billion.
- Full access to wealthy-country markets would have a particularly positive impact for Bangladesh, which would see an additional increase in income of US$ 1.2 billion. Additional gains would also occur in developing Asian countries (US$ 3.1 billion) and in Malawi (US$ 0.1 billion).
- For developing countries in Asia, the impact of fully opening wealthy-country markets to least developed countries is also significant. Rice production in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, for example, would fall by 32 percent compared to a decline of just four percent if these markets were not fully open.
Impact of Fewer Sensitive and Special Agricultural Products *
- Reducing the number of products defined as sensitive and special from five percent to one percent would increase global income from US$ 54.7 billion to US$ 62 billion-an increase of US$ 7.3 billion.
- While these gains would be widely distributed, developed countries are projected to receive the most. However, global gains remain limited as one percent of agricultural products would still receive sensitive and special protective status.
- Seven middle-income countries would benefit from additional income gains-Thailand, Vietnam, Uruguay, Morocco, Tunisia, the South African Customs Union, and Zimbabwe.
- Restricting the number of special and sensitive products has a positive impact on the exports in several middle-income countries, such as rice for Thailand, Vietnam, and Uruguay, and vegetables and fruits for Morocco and Tunisia.
* The gains noted here are additional to the gains identified in a previous IFPRI study that modeled a compromise scenario of the most ambitious and least ambitious components of World Trade Organization proposals put forth by the United States, European Union,, and Group of Twenty countries.