Food Security Outlook in Africa to 2025
Water and Food Security
Projections from: Looking Ahead: Long-Term Prospects for Africa’s Agricultural Development and Food Security (unless otherwise noted) International Food Policy Research Institute
August 2005
- Water plays a critical role in shaping Africa’s agricultural productivity. Dwindling water resources can significantly affect the continent’s food security.
- Overall water consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow by 67 percent over the next two decades. In Egypt and other West Asian/North African regions, water consumption will grow at a slower rate at 21 and 20 percent, respectively.
- Despite Africa’s projected water consumption increase over the next two decades, Sub-Saharan Africa will not experience major water scarcity issues. However, North Africa's water stress level is projected to worsen by 2025 if current policies remain in place.
- Present water resource development levels will not keep pace with future irrigation demands in Africa. Availability of water for irrigation will become increasingly unreliable throughout much of the continent, with the exception of Nigeria, over the next two decades if current policies remain unchanged.
- Irrigated land in Africa will amount to 15.4 million hectares in 2025, comparatively smaller than the rest of the world. Irrigated cereal area in Sub-Saharan Africa is very small, comprising only 4.5 percent of global cereal area in 1995 and 4.8 percent in 2025. North Africa accounts for a slightly larger percentage, with 31.9 percent in 1995 and a projected 32.1 percent in 2025.
- Rainfed agriculture in Africa is critical for the growth of food production. By 2025, rainfed land for cereal production will amount to 119.9 million hectares, compared to 15.4 million hectares for irrigated land. For roots and tubers, rainfed production in 2025 will increase to 11.2 million hectares, compared to 10.7 million hectares for irrigated land.
- Investments and policy reforms that enhance rainfed agriculture are essential for food security over the next two decades. Water harvesting, the collection of rainwater for use in agricultural production, is one technique that has the potential to improve rainfed crop yields, increase water availability, and enhance soil fertility.
- IMPACT-Water model projections found that more effective rainfall use in rainfed areas of Africa can result in food production increases, price decreases, and when employed alongside irrigation practices, it can also keep food prices from escalating. In Sub-Saharan countries alone, more effective rainfall use can cut Africa's cereal import burden by half, reducing imports from 17.4 million metric tons per year to 8.7 million metric tons per year in 2021-25.