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Assessments and Projections from Outlook for Fish to 2020: Meeting Global Demand
- In 2020, China will produce a projected 53 million metric tons of fish for food, a 59 percent increase over 1997 production levels. This will account for 41 percent of global fish production.
- Aquaculture production in China in 2020 is expected to be 80 percent higher than it was in 1997, increasing from 19.5 to 35.1 million metric tons. By 2020, China will account for two-thirds of global aquaculture production.
- Net exports of fish for food in China will increase from 181,000 metric tons in 1997 to 543,000 in 2020.
- China imported 685,000 metric tons of low-value food fish in 1997, but is projected to export 711,000 metric tons of that commodity by 2020.
- Per capita food fish consumption in China is projected to climb from 26.5 kilograms per person per year in 1997 to 35.9 kilograms in 2020. This is roughly twice the projected average global per capita consumption of 17.1 kilograms in 2020.
- Total consumption of all food fish in China will increase from 33.2 million metric tons in 1997 to a projected 52.5 million in 2020, a 58 percent increase.
- By 2020, China will account for 41 percent of all fish consumed globally.
Other facts about China:
- China's population is 1.3 billion. The country's fertility rate is 1.8, down from 2.1 in 1991. (United Nations World Health Organization, China Population Estimates, 2003)
- Agriculture comprises 15.2 percent of China's gross domestic product and employs 47 percent of the labor force. (World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2003; Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2002)
- China accounts for one-quarter of the 900 million poor people in Asia. (United Nations Development Programme, China Human Development Report, 2002)
1This information is based on projections made using the IMPACT model's baseline scenario, which uses official government data. For alternative perspectives, please see information on the Lower China Production scenario.
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