• Business as Usual Scenario
• Water Crisis Scenario
• Sustainable Water Scenario

• By 2025, water scarcity will cause annual global losses of 350 million metric tons of food production-slightly more than the entire current U.S. grain crop.
• Consumption of water for all nonirrigation uses will rise dramatically, by 62 percent.
• Household water use will increase by 71 percent, of which more than 90 percent will be in developing countries, but many households will remain unconnected to piped water.
• Industrial water demand will increase significantly in developing countries and, by 2025, a major shift will occur: industrial water demand in the developing world will exceed the demand in developed countries.
• Water scarcity will cause substantial shifts in where the world's food is grown. Developing countries will dramatically increase their reliance on food imports. In sub-Saharan Africa, grain imports will more than triple. Poor countries, unable to finance imports, will experience increased hunger and malnutrition.

Selected assumptions include:

• Current trends in water and food policy, management, and investment will remain as they are. Governments and water users will implement institutional and management reforms in a limited, piecemeal fashion.
• Governments will continue to transfer management of irrigation systems to farmer organizations and water user associations, but water use efficiency will not improve in many places due to lack of a supportive policy and legal environment.
• Due to low prices and little regulation, farmers will expand groundwater pumping. In parts of the western U.S., China, India, Egypt, West Asia, and North Africa, users will pump water faster than aquifers can recharge, threatening water supplies.
• The share of water devoted to environmental uses will not improve, and environmental degradation will increase.
• The cost of supplying water to households and industries will rise dramatically, but industrial water prices will remain relatively low.
• Greater food production will depend primarily on increases in yield, yet growth in crop yields will diminish due to falling public investment in agricultural research, rural infrastructure, irrigation, and reservoirs.

• Food production will decline significantly. Grain output will be 10 percent less than business as usual levels-the equivalent of annually losing the entire grain crop of India.
• Food prices will skyrocket. The price of rice will increase by 40 percent, wheat by 80, and maize by 120. Poor consumers in developing countries will not be able to afford the high prices, and malnutrition and food insecurity will increase substantially.
• In 2025, global water consumption will increase by 13 percent over business as usual levels, but much of this water will be wasted. Virtually all of the increase will go to irrigation.
• Worldwide, demand for domestic water will be 23 percent less than business as usual levels.
• By 2025, demand for industrial water will increase by 33 percent over business as usual levels, but industrial output will remain the same.
• Global environmental flows will decline substantially by 2025, dropping 460 cubic kilometers below business as usual levels.

Selected assumptions include:

• Urban population growth will increase demand for household water, but poorly planned water and sanitation services will lead to a breakdown in services for hundreds of millions of people. Many households will remain unconnected to piped water.
• The costs of building dams will soar, discouraging new investment. Reservoir storage will decline in developing countries and remain constant in developed countries.
• After 2010, key aquifers in China, India, West Asia and North Africa will begin to fail.
• Decreased public investment in crop breeding for rainfed agriculture will lead to further declines in productivity growth in rainfed areas and yields will fall.
• Farmers will expand slash-and-burn agriculture and groundwater pumping. Deforestation, erosion, river and reservoir sedimentation, and encroachment on wetlands will increase.
• Governments will cut spending on irrigation systems and hasten the turnover of systems to farmers, but without reforms in water rights. Irrigation water prices will increase.
• Due to increases in water prices and scarcity, conflict over water will increase.
• Spending on the operation and maintenance of water systems will fall dramatically and infrastructure will deteriorate. Attempts to organize basin organizations to coordinate water management will fail due to low funding and high conflict among stakeholders.

• In 2025, total global water consumption will be 20 percent less than business as usual levels, and industrial water demand will decrease by 35 percent worldwide.
• Environmental flows will expand dramatically. Compared to the water crisis scenario, the increase is equivalent to five times the annual flow of the Mississippi River.
• Global rainfed crop yields will increase by 7 percent over business as usual levels due to breakthroughs in water harvesting systems and adoption of advanced farming techniques.
• Food production will increase slightly over business as usual levels, and shifts will occur in where the world's food is grown. Grain production will decrease by 10 million tons in developed countries and increase by 29 million tons in the developing world.
• For most crops, prices will decline slowly from 1995 to 2025.

Selected assumptions include:

• By 2025, agricultural water prices will double in developed countries and triple in the developing world, relative to business as usual. Industrial water prices will also increase.
• Water prices for connected households will double, with targeted subsidies for low-income households. Revenues from price hikes will be invested to reduce water losses in existing systems and to extend piped water to previously unconnected households. By 2025 all households, both rural and urban, will be connected to piped water.
• Price increases and incentive programs will induce savings and reduce demand for water. All cuts in household and urban water used will be allocated to environmental uses.
• Governments and international donors will increase investments in crop research, technological change, rural infrastructure, and reform of water management to boost water productivity and the growth of crop yields in rainfed farming, while reducing risks.
• Farmers will increase their investments in irrigation and water management technology. Water use efficiency and effective stakeholder participation will improve significantly.
• Policy towards groundwater pumping will change considerably. Market-based approaches will assign rights to water, and regulations will be stricter and better enforced. Excessive pumping will be phased out in areas that previously pumped groundwater unsustainably.
• Many governments will transfer responsibility for operating and managing irrigation systems to community groups, while improving legal and institutional mechanisms, and providing technical and organizational training and support.