Using sophisticated computer modeling, the report projects that by 2025, water scarcity will cause annual global losses of 350 million metric tons of food production-slightly more than the entire current U.S. grain crop.
"Unless we change policies and priorities, in twenty years, there won't be enough water for cities, households, the environment, or growing food," cautioned Dr. Mark Rosegrant, lead author of the report and senior research fellow at IFPRI. "Water is not like oil. There is no substitute. If we continue to take it for granted, much of the earth is going to run short of water or food-or both."
Due in part to rapid population growth and urbanization in developing countries, water use for households, industry, and agriculture will increase by at least 50 percent in the next 20 years. Increased competition for water will severely limit the availability of water for irrigation, which in turn will seriously constrain the world's production of food.
Declines in food supply could cause prices to skyrocket, and higher prices will lead to significant increases in malnutrition, since many poor people in developing countries already spend more than half their income on food.
"For hundreds of millions of poor farmers in developing countries, a lack of access to water for growing food is the most important constraint they face," said Frank Rijsberman, director general of IWMI. "If countries continue to underinvest in building strong institutions and policies to support water governance and approaches to give better access to water to poor communities, growth rates for crop yields will fall worldwide in the next 25 years, primarily because of water scarcity."
According to the report, it would take only a moderate worsening in global water policy to bring about a genuine water crisis. If governments continue to cut spending on crop research, technology, and infrastructure, while failing to implement institutional and management reforms, global grain production will drop by 10 percent over business as usual levels, equivalent to losing the entire annual grain crop of India.
Lack of adequate investment and poorly planned systems will hamper progress in providing water and sanitation services for hundreds of millions of people.
"Currently, more than 1 billion people around the world do not have access to a safe water supply, and adequate sanitation is even less available," noted Dr. Joachim von Braun, director general of IFPRI. "Lack of clean water and sanitation is a major cause of disease and child mortality. While world leaders recently agreed at the World Summit on Sustainable Development to cut in half the number of people without access to clean water by 2015, this goal will not become a reality unless governments redirect their water policies to meet the needs of poor people."
Fundamental changes in water policies and investment priorities could achieve substantial benefits and sustainable use of water. For example, the report recommends pricing water to reflect its cost and value.
"Although water subsidies are commonplace in developing countries, they tend to benefit relatively wealthy people," explained Dr. Peter Hazell, director of Environment and Production Technology at IFPRI. "Making affluent people pay for water would encourage them to conserve. It would also free up financial resources to provide clean, safe water to poor people."
The report also recommends increased investment in crop research, technological change, and rural infrastructure to boost water productivity and growth of crops yields in rainfed farming, which will account for one-half the increase in food production between 1995 and 2025.
"We need to invest in water conservation, for example, using innovative low-cost, small-scale irrigation technologies - such as a five dollar bucket and drip kit or manually operated treadle pumps - that allow smallholder farmers to irrigate crops using less water, and deliver water to crops when it is needed, " said Rijsberman. "A number of useful new small-scale technologies and community-level water management innovations have emerged in recent years. Governments must learn from these practices in order to implement practical solutions for using less water in agriculture. Without conservation, aquifers, lakes, and wetlands will be further depleted."
"A crisis is not inevitable," said Rosegrant. "The world can both consume less water, and reap greater benefits. To achieve sustainable water use, we must act now. The required strategies take not only money and political will, but time as well."
For more information, see:
Global Water Outlook to 2025: Averting an Impending Crisis
or contact:
- Michael Rubinstein, 202/862.5670
m.rubinstein@cgiar.org - Michele Pietrowski, 202/862.5679
m.pietrowski@cgiar.org
The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) seeks sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty. IFPRI is one of 15 Future Harvest Centers and receives its principal funding from 58 governments, private foundations, and international and regional organizations known as the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research.