Nairobi -- By 2050, the percentage of the world's children who are malnourished could drop dramatically from the current 31 percent to 11 percent, if policymakers respond to the global challenge of hunger. However, rates will drop only modestly if there are serious policy or technology failures in the next half-century. These new findings are from a paper to be presented at the annual meeting of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research on October 29.

"We have come to a major crossroads for the world food situation. Fifty years from now, one child in four could be suffering from chronic hunger, or it could drop to one child in ten. The outcome depends on decisions made now and in the next few years," said Joachim von Braun, director general of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and lead author of the paper.

Under an optimistic scenario, the research projects that 38 million children would be malnourished in 2050, down from the current 166 million. This scenario would be possible if progressive policy actions take place in the near future, including:

• Increased public spending on agricultural and rural development by both developing and industrialized countries
• Expanded investment in agricultural research
• High levels of investment in education, social services, and health
• Improved irrigation efficiency

The "progressive policy" scenario projects that after 2015, child nutrition will improve steadily in all developing regions of the world, including sub-Saharan Africa. Latin America, the Middle East, and China virtually eliminate child malnutrition by 2030.

The paper also provides two pessimistic scenarios, which leave 135 - 140 million children malnourished in 2025. The "policy failure" scenario assumes increased conflict over policies to increase investment, no progress on agricultural trade negotiations, more protectionism, and other political failures. The "technology and resource management failure" scenario assumes water mismanagement, worsening pest problems, and lack of adaptation to climate change. Under these scenarios, child malnutrition in developing countries actually increases until 2015, and then declines only modestly thereafter. In sub-Saharan Africa, child malnutrition rates continue to grow through 2050.

"While pessimistic, these scenarios are possible, if current trends worsen," warned Mark Rosegrant, report co-author and director of Environment and Production Technology at IFPRI. "These projections should raise alarm bells for governments in both developing and industrialized countries."

The paper notes that three months ago, the Heads of State Summit of the African Union agreed to devote 10 percent of public expenditures to agriculture, in order to bolster food security on the continent. By contrast, in the 1990s, African governments devoted just five percent to agriculture.

"It is extremely encouraging that African policymakers at the highest level are expressing a commitment to reverse the downward spiral in sub-Saharan Africa, where per capita food production has declined over the past 30 years and child malnutrition is expected to increase," von Braun commented.

For more information, contact:

• Michele Pietrowski, 202/862.5679
  m.pietrowski@cgiar.org