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Who we are

With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Agnes Quisumbing

Agnes Quisumbing is a Senior Research Fellow in the Poverty, Gender, and Inclusion Unit. She co-leads a research program that examines how closing the gap between men’s and women’s ownership and control of assets may lead to better development outcomes.

Where we work

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Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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experts

Timothy Thomas

Senior Research Fellow

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Bio

Tim Thomas is a Senior Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. His research focuses on the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. This work has expanded recently to include evaluating the fuller impact of climate change by accounting for uncertainty and interannual variability, especially in regard to extreme events and low-productivity years. Tim’s work involves developing innovative methods for simulated climate futures; generating crop yield emulators to provide intuition and to speed simulations; and model coordination between climate, crop, water, energy, and economics. Tim has also worked in a variety of domains developing innovative methods such as spatial disaggregation (applied to gridded agricultural GDP in Brazil); determining optimal cropland level subnationally (for Ethiopia); and together with other researchers, investigating the impact of climate change on aflatoxins.

Publications

Publications

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Report

The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model documentation for version 3.6

2024
Robinson, Sherman; Dunston, Shahnila; Mishra, Abhijeet; Sulser, Timothy B.; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Robertson, Richard D.; Cenacchi, Nicola; Thomas, Timothy S.; Zhu, Tingju; Gueneau, Arthur
…more Pitois, Gauthier; Wiebe, Keith D.; Rosegrant, Mark W.
Details

The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model documentation for version 3.6

The International Food Policy Research Institute’s IMPACT model is a robust tool for analyzing global and regional challenges in food, agriculture, and natural resources. Continuously updated and refined, IMPACT version 3.6 is the latest update to the model for continuously improving the treatment of complex issues, including climate change, food security, and economic development. IMPACT 3.6 multimarket model integrates climate, crop simulation, and water models into a comprehensive system, providing decision-makers with a flexible platform to assess the potential impacts of various scenarios on biophysical systems, socioeconomic trends, technologies, and policies.

Year published

2024

Authors

Robinson, Sherman; Dunston, Shahnila; Mishra, Abhijeet; Sulser, Timothy B.; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Robertson, Richard D.; Cenacchi, Nicola; Thomas, Timothy S.; Zhu, Tingju; Gueneau, Arthur; Pitois, Gauthier; Wiebe, Keith D.; Rosegrant, Mark W.

Citation

Robinson, Sherman; Dunston, Shahnila; Mishra, Abhijeet; Sulser, Timothy B.; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Robertson, Richard D.; Cenacchi, Nicola; et al. 2024. The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model documentation for version 3.6. Modeling Systems Technical Paper 1. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/148953

Keywords

Agriculture; Commodities; Policy Analysis; Policy Innovation; Models

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Report

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Journal Article

Food and nutrition security under changing climate and socioeconomic conditions

2024Rosegrant, Mark W.; Sulser, Timothy B.; Dunston, Shahnila; Mishra, Abhijeet; Cenacchi, Nicola; Gebretsadik, Yohannes; Robertson, Richard D.; Thomas, Timothy S.; Wiebe, Keith D.
Details

Food and nutrition security under changing climate and socioeconomic conditions

Food and nutrition security have become increasingly critical concerns for policy makers given that the slow progress on eliminating these challenges has reversed in recent years, with an increase in the number of hungry people by 122 million (20 percent) between 2019 and 2022. In addition to rebuilding in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, the global food system faces inter-related challenges from climate change, trade disruptions, increasing scarcity of water and land, environmental degradation, and evolving food demand patterns, among other factors. This paper assesses prospects to 2050 for food and nutrition security with a focus on low- and middle-income countries around the world in the context of these broader food system changes. Measures of food security presented here include per capita food and kilocalorie availability, the number and prevalence of hungry people, and micronutrient availability. Projected outcomes are assessed using the latest version of the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) framework, a modeling system that combines information from climate models, crop simulation models, and river basin level hydrological and water supply and demand models linked to a global, partial equilibrium, multimarket agriculture sector model.

Year published

2024

Authors

Rosegrant, Mark W.; Sulser, Timothy B.; Dunston, Shahnila; Mishra, Abhijeet; Cenacchi, Nicola; Gebretsadik, Yohannes; Robertson, Richard D.; Thomas, Timothy S.; Wiebe, Keith D.

Citation

Rosegrant, Mark W.; Sulser, Timothy B.; Dunston, Shahnila; Mishra, Abhijeet; Cenacchi, Nicola; et al. 2024. Food and nutrition security under changing climate and socioeconomic conditions. Global Food Security 41: 100755. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2024.100755

Keywords

Food Security; Nutrition Security; Climate Change; Socioeconomic Aspects; Modelling

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-NC-ND-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2024.100755 Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Journal Article

Resource thumbnail

Journal Article

Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: Case study of Malawi

2024Mukashov, Askar; Thomas, Timothy S.; Thurlow, James
Details

Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: Case study of Malawi

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of agriculture-led versus non-agriculture-led development strategies under climate-induced economic uncertainty. Utilizing Malawi as a case study, we introduce the application of Stochastic Dominance (SD) analysis, a tool from decision analysis theory, and compare the two strategies in the context of weather/climate-associated economic uncertainty. Our findings suggest that an agriculture-led development strategy consistently surpasses its non-agriculture-led antagonist in poverty and undernourishment outcomes across almost all possible weather/climate scenarios. This underscores that, despite increasing exposure of the entire economy to weather/climate uncertainty, agriculture-led development remains the optimal strategy for Malawi to reduce poverty and undernourishment. The study also endorses the broader use of SD analysis in policy planning studies, promoting its potential to integrate risk and uncertainty into policymaking.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Thomas, Timothy S.; Thurlow, James

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Thomas, Timothy; and Thurlow, James. 2024. Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: Case study of Malawi. Climatic Change 177: 91. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03733-2

Country/Region

Malawi

Keywords

Eastern Africa; Agriculture; Development; Climate Change; Stochastic Models; Poverty; Undernutrition

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03733-2 Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Journal Article

Blogs

For climate change, the American farmer is the sleeping giant
IFPRI Blog
 | 
September 07, 2017

For climate change, the American farmer is the sleeping giant

By Timothy Thomas

U.S. corn farmers have largely avoided rising temperatures during growing seasons. What happens when climate change kicks in?

Heat dome to do approximately $2 billion in damage to U.S. corn
IFPRI Blog
 | 
July 27, 2016

Heat dome to do approximately $2 billion in damage to U.S. corn

By Timothy Thomas

An IFPRI researcher's estimate shows just a few days of widespread high temperatures will end up harming U.S. corn yields

Do economic predictions of damage from climate change cause policymakers to focus on the wrong thing?
IFPRI Research Blog
 | 
December 01, 2015

Do economic predictions of damage from climate change cause policymakers to focus on the wrong thing?

By Timothy Thomas

Do economic predictions of damage from climate change cause policymakers to focus on the wrong thing?

Events

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

August 2 to 7, 2024

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists

The triennial International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE-2024), centred on the theme “Transformation Towards Sustainable Agri-Food Systems” is scheduled from August 2-7, 2024, in New Delhi, India. The conference offers a distinctive platform, providing a golden opportunity for the agricultural academic institutions and researchers to convene in person, exchange knowledge, and actively contribute to the […]

What does climate change mean for the future of agriculture? Insights from the IMPACT modeling system
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

May 15, 2024, 10:00 – 11:00 am

What does climate change mean for the future of agriculture? Insights from the IMPACT modeling system

Virtual Event: May 15, 2024 at 10:00am-11:00am EDT. This webinar, the first in the series, will focus on how IMPACT can be used to analyze how climate impacts on agrifood systems (and particularly crop productivity) may vary both across locations and over time in the coming decades, and how that can inform decisions about policies and investment today.

Beyond COVID-19: Strengthening Climate Resilience in Egypt’s Agricultural Sector
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

July 21, 2020, 2:00 – 3:00 pm

Beyond COVID-19: Strengthening Climate Resilience in Egypt’s Agricultural Sector

IFPRI’s Egypt Strategy Support Program (Egypt SSP) is organizing a seminar on research findings from an assessment of alternative adaptation options at the farm and policy levels. On-farm options include, among others, changing planting dates, improved seed technology, and alternative irrigation technologies, to name a few. Off-farm options include enhanced efficiency of farm input delivery and […]

News

December 14, 2015 | In the News

Can the Paris agreement protect poor farmers from climate change? (Thomson Reuters Foundation)

Research by Mark Rosegrant, Director of IFPRI’s Environment and Production Technology Division, and a team of distinguished researchers was featured by Thomson Reuters Foundation in a story about COP21. The work examined the effects of climate change on the Philippines and found that the number of people at risk of hunger will increase by 1.4 […]