Publications and Datasets

Hcropland30: A hybrid 30-m global cropland map generated by leveraging global land cover products and Landsat data via deep learning

Tajikistan Rural Household Survey (TRHS) 2025

The Tajikistan Rural Household Survey (TRHS) is a survey data collection effort led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Tajik Academy of Agricultural Sciences (TAAS). It is an ambitious attempt to generate data critical to filling pertinent evidence gaps on the livelihoods and the resilience of rural households in Tajikistan. The TRHS interviewed 3,267 households in the country’s three most populated regions (Sughd Region, Khatlon Region, and Districts of Republic Subordination). The in-person household survey includes a household-level questionnaire that was administered to any knowledgeable adult household member. An accompanying individual-level questionnaire was administered in private to one randomly selected household member, aged 18 to 54 years old. In households were no adult was present in the specified age range, another household member 55 years or older was allowed to respond to the individual-level questionnaire. The dataset also consists of a brief enumerator survey.

Collecting Holistic Evidence on Agroecology Performance to Accelerate Sustainable Food System Transitions

A growing body of research shows the potential of agroecology for enabling a shift to planet-friendly and socially just agrifood systems through context-specific transition pathways. We conduct a scoping review to identify and evaluate the potential of 42 existing agroecology adherence and/or agricultural performance assessment tools to generate credible, legitimate, salient and transferable evidence to inform these transitions. Results show that while multiple relevant tools exist, each of them can be strengthened in at least one area. While most tools are transferable (low time and resource requirements) and have legitimacy (open access with transparent methods), tools have variable saliency (holistic scope inclusive of local priorities) and credibility (use scientific design principles and quality assurance processes). For a subset of 11 tools collecting multidimensional performance data, analysis of 263 identified indicators showed there is a bias towards economic measures (notably income, yield, and resilience), while certain social (e.g. land tenure, traditional knowledge retention) and environmental (e.g. climate mitigation) aspects are regularly overlooked. Through a multidisciplinary process engaging experts across 8 countries, we develop a Holistic Localized Performance Assessment for agroecology (HOLPA) framework that integrates and builds on positive features of existing multidimensional agroecology performance assessments tools and overcomes key limitations. The HOLPA framework for analysis, agroecology indicators, key performance indicators, and low-cost localization process can be used to strengthen agroecology performance assessments, empowering landscape actors to identify evidence-based pathways towards agrifood systems where both people and nature can thrive.

The gendered effects of rainfall shocks on stunting: Evidence from Papua New Guinea

Rainfall fluctuations significantly reduce welfare for poor rural households in low- and middle-income countries dependent on rainfed agriculture for consumption, and the effects of these shocks can be borne disproportionately by vulnerable household members, particularly children and girls. We present new evidence around the effects of rainfall fluctuations on child anthropometric status in Papua New Guinea, an understudied context characterized by some of the highest stunting rates in the world. We show that negative fluctuations in rainfall within the first 12 months of life lead to a reduction in height-for-age and weight-for-age (though not stunting), but this effect is observed only for girls.

Do ultra-poor graduation programs build women’s resilience to weather shocks? Evidence from rural Ethiopia

We assess whether layering an ultra-poor graduation program on Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) protects women and their households from localized weather shocks. Using panel data from a large cluster-randomized trial matched with detailed weather records, we identify community-level exposure to dryness shocks. Women who are exposed to dryness shocks experience deteriorating nutritional status (in conjunction with declining household food security and assets) and a significant increase in the risk of intimate partner violence. However, access to the graduation program fully buffers women from any increase in intimate partner violence, and partially buffers women and their households against other adverse effects. Further analysis suggests that improved household savings likely drives the program’s protective impact.

Food on the go: How engagement with the food environment affects adolescent diets in northern Vietnam

As adolescents grow older, they increasingly engage with the food environment. Our study aimed to: 1) assess the contribution of prepared out of home (POH) foods to the healthiness of adolescent diets and 2) identify socio-demographic factors associated with POH foods intake in a rural, a peri-urban, and an urban area of Vietnam. We conducted a cross-sectional survey among 11–19-year-old adolescents (n = 2,861) and collected socio-demographic and dietary intake data (24-hour recall). The healthiness and micronutrient adequacy of diets was assessed using the Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS) and the micronutrient adequacy ratio (MAR) respectively. We used regression analyses with robust standard errors (to account for school-level clustering) to assess the consequences and identify the drivers of POH food intake. Over 80% of adolescents consumed foods POH on the previous day, contributing 22–26% of daily energy intake. Healthy food groups were underrepresented in POH foods, which were higher in fat, saturated fat, and sodium, but also had higher micronutrient density than foods prepared at home. POH intake was associated with higher energy intake and micronutrient adequacy, but lower diet healthiness. Socioeconomic status, female sex, pocket money, and smartphone ownership were associated with POH consumption, with site-specific differences. Food environments should be made healthier through front-of-package warning labels, reformulation (e.g., reducing milk fat and sugar), and restrictions on the marketing and availability of unhealthy foods combined with the promotion of healthy foods, snacks and meals.

Associations between hygiene practices and carcass contamination by Escherichia coli and coliforms in bovine slaughter facilities in rural Kenya

Carcass contamination during slaughter poses a significant threat to meat safety and public health, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This cross-sectional study, conducted in 25 bovine slaughter facilities in Busia County, Kenya, assessed contamination levels at four anatomical sites on cattle carcasses: rump, flank, brisket, and neck. The study also examined the association between slaughterhouse hygiene practices and microbial contamination by Escherichia coli and coliforms. A total of 193 carcasses were sampled after carcass dressing before sectioning, and E. coli and coliform loads were quantified using MC-Media Pad®. Statistical analyses revealed that contamination levels varied significantly across carcass sampling sites for both coliforms (p = 0.008) and E. coli (p = 0.026), with the brisket showing markedly higher contamination than the rump for coliforms (median 2.15 vs 1.61 log10 CFU/cm2, p = 0.004) and E. coli (median 1.04 vs 0 log10 CFU/cm2, p = 0.020). Key risk factors for increased contamination included carcass contact with the floor, splashing water from wet floors, and visible fecal matter on animal hides. These findings highlight the need for targeted hygiene interventions during slaughter, improved infrastructure, and stronger enforcement of meat safety regulations to reduce contamination and ensure safer meat products for consumers.

The impact of targeted transfer programs on labour supply: Evidence from rural China

Can digital financial services improve household coping capacity? Evidence from nationally representative cross-sectional data in Kenya

Digital financial services (DFS) have expanded financial access in Kenya, but their contribution to household coping capacity may differ substantially across product types. This paper examines trends and socioeconomic correlates of DFS adoption and the associations between DFS use and household coping capacity using nationally representative FinAccess surveys from 2019, 2021, and 2024. The analysis combines descriptive statistics and pooled logistic regressions with inverse-probability-weighted-regression adjustment and propensity score matching. We distinguish between mobile banking savings, mobile money savings, mobile banking loans, mobile provider loans, and app-based digital credit. Mobile phone ownership, internet access, education, income, and financial decision-making are important correlates of adoption, though significant gender and regional disparities remain. Digital savings show the broadest and most consistent positive associations with household coping capacity. Mobile banking savings are associated with an increase of 14 percentage points in emergency saving, an increase of 7.5 percentage points in access to emergency funds, and reductions of 4 and 2.7 percentage points in food insecurity and difficulty accessing medical care, respectively. Mobile banking loans provide narrower benefits, mainly for financial planning and emergency liquidity. In contrast, app-based loans are associated with reduced emergency savings and financial endurance. The findings show that the welfare implications of DFS depend critically on product type. Savings-led digital finance can strengthen household preparedness, while short-term app-based credit may increase financial vulnerability.

Tensions in the Black Sea and regional droughts spark rising global wheat prices

Key takeaways -Wheat prices have climbed sharply in recent weeks as drought and Black Sea shipping disruptions tighten global supplies. -Global wheat production is expected to decline among major exporters, reducing available stocks and export volumes. -Market volatility is increasing as weather risks, conflict, and trade disruptions create greater uncertainty for wheat markets.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: June 2026

This report monitors prices, availability, and market conditions for essential commodities across Sudan in June 2026, covering cereals, pulses, vegetables, animal products, agricultural inputs, fuel, exchange rates, labor markets, and trader perceptions. Commodity prices generally increased during the month, particularly for wheat flour, pulses, vegetables, meat products, cooking oil, sugar, and fuel, while perceived availability declined across most food and input categories, indicating tightening market conditions. Fuel price increases in parallel markets, depreciation of the Sudanese pound, and persistent regional disparities, especially in Darfur and Kordofan states, continued to place pressure on market access and affordability. Surveyed traders reported fewer supply chain, liquidity, and demand-related constraints than in previous months, although challenges remained concentrated in conflict-affected areas such as Khartoum and North Darfur. Despite rising prices and weaker availability, most merchants expected to maintain or expand trading activities over the following one to three months, suggesting cautious optimism about market continuity. -Abstract generated by Copilot AI 2.2

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: July 2026

This report provides an update on prices, availability, and market conditions for essential commodities across Sudan in July 2026, covering staple foods, vegetables, livestock products, agricultural inputs, fuel, exchange rates, labor markets, and trader perceptions. Prices increased across most commodity groups, including cereals, pulses, vegetables, meat products, sugar, cooking oil, fertilizers, and fuel, while trader-reported availability generally declined, indicating worsening market pressures and tighter supplies. Regional disparities remained pronounced, with Darfur and Kordofan states consistently recording some of the highest food and fuel prices and lower commodity availability. Market actors reported increased supply chain and demand-related challenges compared with June, although financial constraints remained relatively limited and most traders expected to maintain or expand their trading activities in the coming months. The report highlights the combined effects of rising parallel-market exchange rates, increasing input and fuel costs, and declining market availability on food affordability and market performance in Sudan. -Abstract generated by Copilot AI 2.2

Agricultural recovery and resilience in Sudan: Findings from the THABAT Project baseline survey of farmers

This report presents the findings from a baseline survey of farmers conducted as part of IFPRI’s impact evaluation of a sub-component of the food security component of the THABAT project in Sudan. The report documents farmers’ pre-intervention conditions across agricultural production, input access, climate-smart practices, food security, market conditions, and institutional trust in the three states in which the project is being implemented—Kassala, Northern, and River Nile. Sudan’s ongoing conflict has severely disrupted agricultural systems, markets, and rural livelihoods. The Sudan Enhancing Community Resilience Project (THABAT) provides resilience-oriented agricultural support that is critical for sustaining food production, protecting livelihoods, and supporting local economic recovery (‘thabat’ in Arabic means ‘stability’ or ‘firmness’). The project is a USD 130 million initiative financed through the Sudan Transition and Recovery Support Trust Fund (STARS) Multi-Donor Trust Fund. This report focuses on Component 2 of the project, which aims to enhance food security through directly providing agricultural production inputs, both goods and services, to farmers. The baseline survey covered 1,308 beneficiary farmers from 115 farmer organizations across the three project states during the 2025/26 agricultural year. The main findings from the analysis of the survey data include: • Beneficiary farmers demonstrate relatively strong agricultural production potential despite operating in a fragile and conflict-affected environment. • Agricultural input support from the THABAT project reached most households, especially climate-adapted improved seeds for wheat, sorghum, and vegetables, and DAP and urea inorganic fertilizers. • However, adoption of climate-smart and adaptive agricultural practices, beyond the use of climate‑adapted improved seeds and fertilizers, generally remains low. • The food security indicators of beneficiary farmers are stronger than those seen in broader crisis-affected populations in Sudan. However, food insecurity levels vary substantially across the three project states. • Farmers continue to face major structural constraints to their economic activities that are related to inflation and currency fluctuations. They also face significant barriers in accessing markets, financial services, and technology, and are subject to substantial conflict-related risks.

A robust spectral-temporal index for cross-regional mapping of plastic-mulched farmland using decametric-resolution images

Familiar strangers: The role of diaspora networks in foreign investment and long-run development

Healthier diets: A global economic modelling study of income and employment impacts across regions

Interest has grown in how to achieve healthy, sustainable, and affordable human diets. The potential income and employment effects of a transition towards healthier diets have received much less attention. We simulate aggregate and sectoral income and employment for business-as-usual and healthier diets for all geographic regions up to 2050 using scenario-based modelling. These healthier diets can increase food’s share of household expenditure in some regions, for example from 18% to 25% in East and Central Africa in 2050. Our results suggest that a global shift towards healthier diets leads to a reallocation of primary factors of production, especially low-skilled labour and capital, from non-agricultural sectors to crop agriculture in parts of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Notably, in 2050, with healthier diets, agriculture’s share of low-skilled labour increases by 3.2 percentage points in East and Central Africa and 1.5 percentage points in South Asia excluding India. Although Gross Domestic Product increases in these regions relative to business-as-usual, this reallocation raises agriculture’s share of Gross Domestic Product, consistent with a slower pace of long-run structural transformation. The reallocation leads to a mild increase in wages for low-skilled workers relative to high-skilled workers in most of these regions, compared to business-as-usual. However, in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, food price increases outweigh wage gains for low-skilled labour, reducing real purchasing power. Policies that encourage healthier diets may also alter income and employment and reduce economic welfare of poor populations in some regions, so care is needed in policy design to avoid adverse unintended consequences.

Food systems policy coherence: A ten-country assessment

Policy coherence is widely recognised as essential for achieving food systems transformation, but attempts to assess food systems policy coherence have been limited to date in terms of their scope of topics and geographies and lack of comparable methods. This paper introduces the Food Systems Policy Coherence (FSPC) Diagnostic Tool and uses it to analyse food systems policy coherence across 10 low- and middle-income countries in Africa and Asia through key informant interviews (n = 189) and review of policy documents (n = 808). The FSPC Diagnostic Tool considers two aspects of policy coherence: (1) the structures and mechanisms that may contribute to achieving stronger policy process coherence and (2) coherence between policies from six sectors and ten common food systems goals. Regarding the former, all countries analysed had strong framework documents for cross-sectoral food policy, backed by high-level political commitment, but they tended to be much weaker when it came to capacity for implementation and especially monitoring and accountability. Policy coherence across sectors was generally strong for the goals of climate change adaptation and social protection but weaker for goals of healthy diets for all, adequate wages for food system workers, and climate change mitigation through food systems. Trade policy was the policy area with the greatest incoherence with a diverse range of food systems goals. The results offer the most comprehensive analysis of food systems policy coherence to date. The tool makes a useful contribution to measuring policy coherence and can serve as both a foundation for future research and enhance accountability for achieving coherent policy outcomes.

Interpersonal communication and maternal behavioral practice: A case study of explanatory causal machine learning in Nepal

Background There is increasing interest not only in whether a program produced impacts but also the mechanisms through which the impacts were produced. Studies of nutrition interventions have frequently highlighted the role of nutrition education interventions, but few studies have investigated the paths through which those interventions achieve impact. Objectives We assessed the total effect of maternal exposure to interpersonal communication with a frontline worker on behavioral practice and the degree to which that effect operated through 2 key pathways: improved awareness and knowledge. We also conducted a comparative case study examining the differences between machine learning (ML) and structural equation model (SEM) approaches. Methods We used data from the endline cross-sectional survey of the quasi-experimental Suaahara study of 2040 mothers with a child less than 2 years of age. We estimated the total effect of maternal exposure to interpersonal communication with a frontline worker on her nutrition-related practices and the indirect effects through improvements in awareness and knowledge using ML and conventional SEMs. Models were adjusted for household, child, and maternal factors as well as household location. Results Maternal exposure to interpersonal communication with a frontline worker translated into practicing more of the ideal, promoted nutrition-related practices. Both methods suggested a similar total effect—ML: 0.58 (95% CI: 0.37, 0.78) and SEM: 0.60 (95% CI: 0.49, 0.72). ML models, however, attributed a much larger proportion of that total effect to indirect effects operating through awareness and knowledge (ML: 0.24; 95% CI: 0.15, 0.33; SEMs: 0.16; 95% CI: 0.09, 0.21). Conclusions Interpersonal communication improved nutrition-related practices, in part due to increasing one’s awareness and knowledge. The disparities in results between ML and SEMs suggested that the production of effects is a more complex, nonlinear or interactive function of awareness, knowledge, treatment and covariates than what is captured by simple linear models.

How do migrants fare in Africa’s urban labour markets?

Absent to care? The effect of parental migration on children’s nutrition, health, and cognition in rural Gansu Province of China

Enhancing farmers’ access to neglected crop seeds for healthy diets in a changing climate: six recommendations for policy action

Food insecurity and poor diets undermine human health, livelihoods, and aspirations. Climate change further exacerbates the problem of achieving zero hunger. Promoting the production of a diverse portfolio of nutrient-dense, climate-resilient crops enables food supply for healthy diets in the coming years and decades. Many are underutilized even though they are considered opportunity crops, with an unrealized potential to improve food security and dietary quality amid climate change. Limited access to quality seed for these crops is a major bottleneck in their supply, as the current policy environment does not support farmers in broadening their portfolio with these crops. This paper identifies three key challenges that should be addressed to enable farmers to access quality seed of opportunity crops at scale. These are to make the diversity of opportunity crops (i) a priority for policy (ii) available for evaluation and breeding, and (iii) accessible to farmers, especially women and other disadvantaged groups. Six policy actions are recommended to address these challenges, which, if implemented, are likely to have both short- and long-term impacts in increasing farmers’ access to quality seeds of opportunity crops. Adopting these policy actions will help mainstream opportunity crops into seed systems as part of a broader strategy to diversify food systems from seed to plate.

Trends, determinants, and anthropometric consequences of low birthweight in Indian children: A prospective analysis of national data

Background Low birthweight (LBW) is a major concern for child survival and growth, and India accounts for the highest number of such cases globally. Studies have examined determinants of birthweight and child growth but little evidence exists on how birthweight influences growth outcomes during early childhood. This paper examines associations between maternal, household, and health-related factors, LBW, and growth faltering, and explores childhood growth trajectories across birthweight groups. Methods Data from three waves of India’s National Family Health Survey were used to examine heaping-adjusted trends and predictors of LBW. Regression-based decomposition was used to quantify the way in which changes in predictors could reduce future LBW prevalence. Trajectories of childhood anthropometry by LBW status and determinants were examined by using smoothing and regression methods. Results The LBW prevalence between 2000 and 2020 was 20% (unadjusted) and 40% (heaping-adjusted). Improvements in maternal stature, weight, household wealth, and antenatal care coverage could yield the largest future reductions in LBW. Children born with LBW had 1.5 times higher odds of being underweight and 1.3 times higher odds of stunting. Maternal short stature, underweight, and poverty were associated with higher odds of subsequent anthropometric faltering regardless of LBW. Conclusion Findings show the dominant role of maternal nutrition in birthweight and childhood growth outcomes. Once a child is born with LBW, there is limited potential to prevent subsequent anthropometric failure. To break the intergenerational cycle of undernutrition, programs must prioritize improved nutrition for girls beginning early in life and sustained through adolescence and preconception.

The state of global food insecurity measurement: A mix of methods, and a mix of messages

Robust food insecurity indicators are needed for monitoring development targets, emergency responses, and rationally allocating foreign aid. For decades, global food security monitoring relied on the FAO’s prevalence of undernourishment, but this indicator’s fundamental limitations led the FAO to develop the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) and adopt the unaffordability of the healthy diet. In parallel, The World Bank monitors monetary poverty, arguably a food insecurity indicator in its own right. In this study we assess whether this larger suite of indicators agrees on: (a) which countries are most food insecure; and (b) whether global food insecurity is really deteriorating. Unfortunately, this new mix of methods produces mixed messages. Longstanding criticisms of the prevalence of undernourishment still apply, while rising undernourishment in the past decade is driven by modelled increases in calorie inequality that are inconsistent with income inequality trends. The FIES fares no better: severe FIES food insecurity is higher in several Latin American and Caribbean countries than in extremely food-insecure African countries such as Niger. The World Bank’s poverty and healthy diet affordability monitoring efforts are significantly constrained by systematically fewer household surveys in poorer and more crisis-affected countries. How can this situation be improved? First, experience-based indicators need to be more rigorously evaluated for cross-cultural comparability, and alternatives need to be considered. Second, international agencies and national governments should pool resources to implement coordinated, high-frequency, multi-purpose surveys – focusing on poor and crisis-affected countries – to jointly monitor food insecurity, poverty and malnutrition, as well as their root causes.

IFPRI’s insights on nutrition challenges and opportunities in Latin America and the Caribbean

Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) face a unique set of dietary and nutritional challenges. The region’s nutrition transition—population-wide shifts from traditional diets to more processed, unhealthier foods—began decades ago, well before countries in Africa and Asia that are now undergoing similar changes. Compounding that problem, healthy diets in LAC are currently the most expensive globally and are unaffordable for over a quarter of the region’s population.

Strengthening land tenure security and women’s land rights in Kenya: Policy analysis, implementation gaps, and gender-transformative pathways

In Kenya, the legal foundation for land governance was transformed by the country’s 2010 Constitution and reinforced by several subsequent laws that provide important entry points to strengthen women’s land rights. However, gaps in implementation remain significant; titles held by women represent less than 2 percent of all titled land, and women are less likely than men to own agricultural land and be named on title documentation. Evidence shows that women’s tenure security improves when legal recognition is matched with accessible implementation. The community land agenda is equally urgent; community land covers a major share of Kenya’s land area, especially in arid and semi-arid lands, yet the transition from former group ranches to registered community land has been slow. Investments should focus on five mutually reinforcing pathways: 1) strengthening sex-disaggregated land administration data, 2) supporting community land registration and inclusive bylaws, 3) combining legal literacy with paralegal support and alternative justice systems that meet constitutional standards, 4) promoting gender-transformative household and community approaches that shift norms around inheritance, joint titling, and decision-making, and 5) integrating women’s land rights into agricultural productivity, climate resilience, and market systems interventions.

Strengthening land tenure security and women’s land rights in Ethiopia: Policy analysis, implementation gaps, and gender-transformative pathways

Ethiopia’s land rights regime has evolved from an unequal imperial system, through nationalization, to a contemporary federal framework that recognizes secure, inheritable, registrable, and transferable land-use rights for women and men farmers and pastoralists. Ethiopia has undertaken one of Africa’s largest rural land certification reforms over the past three decades, beginning with provision of household certificates and progressing to geospatial mapping of parcels and a digital registry of landholdings. By 2024, an estimated 23 million certificates had been produced. While the certification reforms are a huge achievement, key challenges to transforming recognized rights into usable rights remain, especially for women, pastoral communities, and peri-urban households.  Progress towards gender equality in land rights is real, but uneven. Women are still less likely to have documented ownership compared to men, and they face constraints in controlling farmland, accessing credit, and benefitting from climate finance. Future policies and investments should focus on keeping rights current through registry maintenance, enforceable, gender-equitable, and adaptable to pastoral, peri-urban, and climate-vulnerable contexts.

Strengthening land tenure security and women’s land rights in Nigeria: Policy analysis, implementation gaps, and gender-transformative pathways

Nigeria’s land governance system has not delivered secure, affordable, and inclusive land documentation for most citizens, which is needed for agricultural productivity, food security, housing, climate resilience, peacebuilding, and women’s economic empowerment. Despite wide consensus on the need for land reform, the pluralistic system and the constitutionally entrenched Land Use Act have limited advances. Formal land registration remains limited in Nigeria, with more than 90% of land estimated to be unregistered. Customary, Islamic, and informal institutions continue to govern many land relations, but women and pastoralists frequently face weaker or inadequately documented rights. The lack of systematic gender- and conflict-sensitive recognition and tracking of land and resource rights at the national level contributes to the gender gap and to violent farmer–herder conflicts. A significant opportunity for reform has been opened by national attention to Land4Growth, state-level digitization, experience with systematic land titling and registration (SLTR), Supreme Court rulings on women’s inheritance, and growing evidence on gender-transformative land programming. A high-impact land reform program in Nigeria should invest not only in surveying, digitization, and title issuance, but also address the legal overlap of statutory and customary tenure, the gendered effects of inheritance and marital property norms, practical barriers that reduce women’s land rights, and the rights of pastoral communities.

WEAGov in practice: Lessons from early adopters in the AWARD/GRASP Fellowship

This note synthesizes lessons from a purposvie sample of early adopters of WEAGov: four recipients of the Gender Responsive Agriculture Systems Policy (GRASP) fellowship from the African Women in Agricultural Research and Development (AWARD) who applied WEAGov in active policy innovation project across diverse country and policy contexts. This approach of gathering structured practitioner feedback during the tool’s early diffusion phase is well-suited to identifying usability barriers, adaptation needs, and measurement gaps that can inform the next iteration of the methodology. Drawing on structured interviews conducted in 2025 and 2026, this note documents what worked, what proved challenging, and what changes the IFPRI development team should prioritize in the tool’s next iteration. While four cases cannot support generalizable claims, the consistency of findings across applications in Uganda, Kenya, and Malawi lends credibility to the lessons drawn here. This note is intended for researchers, program managers, and development practitioners considering the use of WEAGov.

Understanding agrifood systems in flux: Johan Swinnen and Christopher Barrett on the award-winning 2025 Global Food Policy Report

IFPRI’s 2025 Global Food Policy Report—which received the American Agricultural Economics Association’s (AAEA) Quality of Communication Award on July 27—continues to spark discussion about the future of food systems and the role of evidence-based policymaking. Edited by IFPRI Director General Johan Swinnen and Cornell University economist Christopher B. Barrett, the report marked IFPRI’s 50th anniversary by taking stock of five decades of advances in food policy and considering the challenges that lie ahead for global agrifood systems. In this conversation, Swinnen and Barrett discuss the report’s key findings, emerging trends, the value of interdisciplinary research, and how evidence can help guide policymaking in an increasingly uncertain world.

The economics of agricultural carbon markets: Nepal’s opportunity and strategic options

Key takeaways Agricultural carbon markets can boost farm incomes in Nepal. Carbon credits could create a new revenue stream for smallholder farmers while supporting climate-smart agriculture. Methane reduction offers major potential. Improved rice and livestock practices could cut emissions and generate significant carbon credit revenues. Success depends on strong institutions. Better monitoring, fair benefit-sharing, and cooperative-based farmer participation are essential for scaling agricultural carbon trading.

Bridging agronomic science and context specific farm-level advisory through generative AI for rice systems in India

Agriculture is increasingly characterized by a data paradox, while the sector generates massive volumes of genomic, climatic, remote sensing, and field data. Translating this information into actionable, farm-level insights remains a critical bottleneck. Traditional advisory mechanisms cannot operate at the spatial scales or provide the context-specificity needed for climate adaptation and food security. The work presents GenAI as a transformative interface that makes advanced agricultural science, including crop simulation models and remote sensing diagnostics, accessible to rice farmers in India through natural language, provided that challenges related to data sovereignty, infrastructure gaps, and the need for human oversight in advisory systems are effectively addressed. We trace the shift from static, rule-based expert systems to dynamic foundation models capable of complex reasoning and multimodal analysis. The paper critically reviewed the rise of crop-specific LLM agro-advisory model architectures, such as SeedLLM Rice and IPM-AgriGPT, which outperform general-purpose models by utilizing specialized scientific corpora to reduce hallucinations. Main attention is on the hybrid integration framework of LLMs with Knowledge Graphs (KGs) for factual grounding, and connecting with process-based simulators (e.g., DSSAT, APSIM) to make biophysical modelling more accessible through natural language. Furthermore, the manuscript examines the fusion of satellite, drone, and smart phone imagery with vision-language models, enabling real-time, context-aware diagnostics for smallholder farmers. The review concludes that while GenAI has the potential to support more equitable forms of precision agriculture, it can only do so under specific conditions. Its success depends on resolving infrastructure gaps, ensuring data sovereignty, and maintaining a “human-in-the-loop” architecture to guarantee scientific rigour and social inclusion.

Transforming Nigeria’s livestock sector: Evidence and policy priorities for sustainable food systems

Nigeria has the largest livestock population in West Africa and the fourth-largest cattle herd in Africa, yet the sector remains, in the words of long-standing diagnoses, a “sleeping giant” (Jega 2025). The livestock sector contributes approximately USD 32 billion, or 5 percent of national GDP, and around 17 percent of agricultural GDP. The livelihoods of 30 million people are directly supported by livestock, including those of over 15 million pastoralists. Roughly 40 percent of the protein consumed by Nigerians is sourced from animals. Nigeria has the largest livestock population in West Africa and the fourth-largest cattle herd in Africa, yet the sector remains, in the words of long-standing diagnoses, a “sleeping giant” (Jega 2025). The livestock sector contributes approximately USD 32 billion, or 5 percent of national GDP, and around 17 percent of agricultural GDP. The livelihoods of 30 million people are directly supported by livestock, including those of over 15 million pastoralists. Roughly 40 percent of the protein consumed by Nigerians is sourced from animals. The binding constraints to accelerated growth in Nigeria’s livestock sector are feed systems failure, an endemic and underreported animal disease burden, structural herder–farmer conflict, low genetic potential, the near-absence of processing and cold chain infrastructure, and intensifying climate risk. These interact as reinforcing cycles rather than isolated problems. In this paper that has been prepared to inform the development of a strategic action plan for Nigeria’s livestock sector, we examine the prospects for removing these barriers in order to put the sector on a pathway of sustained growth. Fortunately, the policy architecture for livestock sector development in Nigeria is now the strongest in the sector’s history. The Federal Ministry of Livestock Development, created in July 2024, anchors the Nigeria Livestock Growth Acceleration Strategy for 2025 to 2035, the first-ever Nigeria Livestock Master Plan, and the Livestock Productivity and Resilience Support investment program. Major financing is being mobilized, including a USD 2.5 billion commitment to invest in livestock processing from JBS S.A., a Brazilian meat processing company, the creation of the Africa Pastoral Markets Development platform with a USD 3 billion private-investment target, and the Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones project. Early progress under these initiatives is visible—by mid-2026, the Ministry had vaccinated 6.2 million livestock in a nationwide anthrax campaign, profiled over 600,000 livestock farmers using electronic tools, validated a National Dairy Policy Implementation Framework, and approved a veterinary reform roadmap to run through 2036. The principal conclusion we draw from this study is that Nigeria’s livestock sector development challenges are primarily linked to ineffectual implementation rather than poor policy design. The Nigeria Livestock Growth Acceleration Strategy should therefore prioritize implementation architecture—binding federal–state compacts on livestock development actions, foundational data systems that include a completed baseline on Nigeria’s livestock resources and a National Livestock Identification and Traceability System, feed systems development, animal health recapitalization, and putting in place the mechanisms that will convert committed private capital into operational investments in Nigeria’s livestock sector.

Towards sustainable fisheries and aquaculture in Nigeria: Evidence, constraints, and investment priorities

Nigeria is Africa’s largest fish consumer by volume and a leading producer. Fisheries and aquaculture contribute between 3 and 4 percent of national GDP, provide around 40 percent of the animal-source protein consumed by Nigerians, and support the livelihoods of around 12 million artisanal fishers and fish farmers. Women constitute over 60 percent of the sector workforce. However, the sector is locked in a structural supply-demand crisis. Domestic fish production meets only about one-third of annual demand of between 3.2 million and 3.6 million mt. The domestic supply deficit of approximately 2.4 million mt is filled by imports that cost Nigeria over USD 1.0 billion annually. Domestic fish production has begun to respond to the growing demand for fish in Nigeria. The Federal Department of Fisheries and Aquaculture reports output rising to 1.4 million mt in 2025 from 1.1 million mt in 2024. This increase in production was attributed to improved federal-state coordination, the use of better aquaculture technology, and establishing more sustainable marine farming systems with the support of Nigeria’s development partners. Nonetheless, the structural deficit in fish supply for Nigerian markets remains large. The constraints hindering growth in Nigeria’s fisheries and aquaculture sector include: A fish-feed cost crisis—feed makes up 60 to 70 percent of aquaculture production costs, The near-absence of cold chains for storing, transporting, and marketing fish, resulting in postharvest losses of up to 40 percent, Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing costs of USD 450 million per year, Fragmented fish fingerling supply systems, Financial exclusion of artisanal fishers, and An outdated governance framework centered on the Sea Fisheries Act of 1992. Moreover, climate change will acutely affect Nigeria’s fisheries and aquaculture sector. Under high-emission climate-change scenarios, its maximum marine catch potential will fall between 23 and 53 percent by 2050. This makes the scaling up of aquaculture not merely an economic growth option but a structural and nutritional necessity. However, aquaculture will also be adversely affected by a changing climate, with growth in aquaculture in Nigeria expected to decelerate from 11 percent per year between 2010 and 2015 to only 2 percent per year in the 2035 to 2050 period. The National Fisheries and Aquaculture Policy, 2025–2029, provides the operational framework for the growth of the fisheries and aquaculture sector. Its principal target is to achieve aquaculture output of 1.3 million mt by 2029 while cutting postharvest losses in half. This paper concludes that any strategic action plan for Nigeria’s fisheries and aquaculture sector must be built around closing the supply deficit through accelerated sectoral growth that is anchored in improved domestic feed and fingerling supply systems, cold chain investment at 12 priority fish landing sites, reforms of the Sea Fisheries Act to address IUU fishing losses, and a dedicated fisheries investment facility to correct the structural financial exclusion of Nigeria’s fisheries and aquaculture sector.

What it takes to integrate women’s empowerment and nutrition in survey monitoring and policy at scale

Key takeaways: Integrated data gives deeper insights. Collecting empowerment and nutrition data from the same individuals better reveals how women’s agency affects nutrition outcomes. Scaling requires more than good metrics. Government buy-in, strong institutional support, and stakeholder engagement are essential for lasting adoption. Simple, practical tools encourage use. Shorter survey modules and integration into existing surveys can reduce burden while improving monitoring and policy impact.

Applying foresight analysis in national agrifood system investment planning

National governments, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, face considerable complexity in long- and midrange agrifood system development planning. These processes must translate political priorities and commitments into credible investment strategies, while coordinating across ministries, engaging diverse stakeholders, and mobilizing domestic and external financing. At the same time, planners must contend with deep uncertainty around climate change, technological change, market dynamics, and demographic and nutrition transitions, often under conditions of constrained analytical capacity and limited resources.

Resilience of agricultural value-chains in Sudan: Findings from the THABAT Project Survey of Small- and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs)

Sudan’s ongoing conflict has severely disrupted agricultural systems, markets, and rural livelihoods. In this context, resilience-oriented agricultural support remains critical for sustaining food production, protecting livelihoods, and supporting local economic recovery. The Sudan Enhancing Community Resilience Project (THABAT) provides resilience-oriented agricultural support that is critical for sustaining food production, protecting livelihoods, and supporting local economic recovery (‘thabat’ in Arabic means ‘stability’ or ‘firmness’). The project is a USD 130 million initiative financed through the Sudan Transition and Recovery Support Trust Fund (STARS) Multi-Donor Trust Fund. This report focuses on the small -and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) sub-component of Component 2 of the project, which aims to improve food security through supporting farmers, SMEs, and consumer cooperatives to enhance value addition in agricultural value chains. This component of the THABAT project is being implemented by the World Food Programme (WFP) through Mercy Corps. Specifically, this report presents the initial findings from interviews with 100 small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) active in the agrifood sector that have been shortlisted to receive support through a matching grant element of the THABAT project. The surveyed SMEs are quite diverse in the nature of their enterprises—crop production, agricultural input supply, agrifood processing and packaging, storage, transport, and a range of postharvest services. WFP and Mercy Corps identified the SMEs that were included in the survey sample, which comprises both selected and unselected SMEs for the THABAT matching grant. Baseline data from the sample SMEs were collected using computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI). This baseline report serves as a description of the status quo for SMEs in the THABAT project zone at the start of the project. The findings indicate that SMEs there have relatively good access to basic infrastructure and digital technologies. More than 90 percent report access to electricity, water, and internet services, although electricity reliability remains limited. The operators of the SMEs generally demonstrate strong growth ambitions, with most expecting increases in capital investment, workforce size, and market expansion in the coming year. This baseline report serves as a description of the status quo for SMEs in the THABAT project zone at the start of the project. The findings indicate that SMEs there have relatively good access to basic infrastructure and digital technologies. More than 90 percent report access to electricity, water, and internet services, although electricity reliability remains limited. The operators of the SMEs generally demonstrate strong growth ambitions, with most expecting increases in capital investment, workforce size, and market expansion in the coming year. The SMEs operate in a challenging business environment characterized by inflation, market disruptions, supply chain constraints, and recurring shocks. More than 90 percent reported experiencing at least one shock during the previous year, while concerns regarding corruption, governance, and limited access to finance remain widespread. At the same time, these SMEs maintain strong linkages with other actors in the agricultural value chains in which they operate and demonstrate considerable resilience and willingness to invest and grow despite many challenges. Overall, these initial SME baseline results show the critical roles SMEs are playing in creating value addition in agricultural value chains despite the challenging business environment and inefficiencies in markets in Sudan. These data, along with those to be collected through a planned endline survey of the same SMEs, will enable assessments to be made of the type of impacts the matching grants and associated business development support offered by the THABAT project had on SME performance and resilience.

Strategic grain reserves and maize price stabilization in Malawi: What policies are feasible?

Maize price instability remains a major policy challenge in Malawi, where most households depend on maize for both production and consumption. Many farmers sell maize after harvest, when prices are low, only to buy it back during the lean season, when prices are high. This paper examines whether Malawi’s Strategic Grain Reserve, managed by the National Food Reserve Agency, can meaningfully stabilize maize prices. It reviews the sources of maize price volatility, assesses past government interventions—including minimum farmgate prices, trade restrictions, and public grain purchases and sales—and develops a conceptual framework for buffer stock operations. The analysis shows that while a strategic grain reserve can help mitigate the most extreme seasonal price movements, its effectiveness is severely constrained by limited storage capacity, financing and timing challenges, and, in particular, the market-determined import and export parity prices that govern cross-border trade. The paper argues that Malawi should retain its strategic grain reserve but calibrate its price-stabilization mandate to what is operationally feasible, while preserving the reserve’s emergency and safety-net functions.

Aligning the World Bank AgriConnect Initiative with the CAADP Kampala Declaration: A strategic imperative for transforming Africa’s agrifood systems

Over the past two decades, the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) has become Africa’s primary, African-owned framework for agricultural transformation. CAADP provides a coherent framework for agrifood sector planning and implementation, guided by shared goals and anchored in core principles of African ownership, evidence-based planning, inclusive dialogue, and mutual accountability. It has elevated agriculture on the political agenda, guided national and regional investment plans, strengthened policy coordination and stakeholder participation, and established continental mutual accountability through the CAADP Biennial Review. Evidence also links CAADP implementation to improvements in agricultural productivity, agricultural trade, poverty reduction, and nutritional outcomes.

Scaling digital financial services for smallholder farmers in Kenya: A stakeholder consultation on challenges, opportunities, and action pathways

Key takeaways • The new Tool for Agricultural Risk Assessment (TARA) helps expand access to credit and insurance in Kenya. The AI-based platform aids financial institutions in better assessing risk and serving smallholder farmers. • A recent workshop focused on efforts to scale TARA. Partners aim to reach 50,000 farmers by 2028. The initiative sets strong inclusion targets for women, youth, and marginalized groups. • Scaling will require coordinated action. Stakeholders prioritized credit guarantees, farmer awareness, financial literacy, and stronger partnerships.

From agreements to action: Practical tools for strengthening transboundary water cooperation

Key takeaways Addressing small bottlenecks in managing transboundary water resources is key to realizing the broad goals elaborated in formal agreements. Rapid assessments help identify realistic solutions. A case in Central Asia found strong day-to-day cooperation but outdated rules, unclear responsibilities, and limited stakeholder engagement. Inclusive institutions make water governance more resilient. Multistakeholder platforms help build trust, improve decision-making, and support long-term cooperation.

Predicting agricultural productivity under climate change using crop yield emulator

This study develops a crop yield emulator as a computationally efficient alternative to the DSSAT process-based model, enabling fast, large-scale assessments of how temperature, rainfall, CO2, and nitrogen influence crop yields. Implemented using fixed-effects polynomial regression in R, the emulator was trained on DSSAT outputs and validated across seven globally important crops, maize, wheat (spring and winter), rice (indica and japonica), soybeans, sorghum, groundnuts, and potatoes. It showed high predictive accuracy (R2 > 0.90) for most crops, especially spring wheat, groundnut, and potato, and performed reliably under climate scenarios such as RCP7.0. The emulator captured key crop-specific responses, such as maize’s sensitivity to heat and nonlinear yield responses to nitrogen inputs. While its performance is slightly lower for maize and Indica rice compared to other crops, it remains a scalable and cost-effective tool for climate scenario analysis. This tool offers valuable support for agricultural decision-making and climate adaptation planning by enabling rapid, data-driven insights into yield outcomes under future conditions.

Myanmar monthly food price report – June 2026

Rice prices rose modestly in June 2026, up 5.2 percent year-on-year and 1.8 percent month-on-month. While national price movements were limited, substantial regional price disparities persisted, reflecting differences in production conditions, market access, and transport costs. Most export crop prices showed limited month-on-month movements. Pulses prices remained broadly stable, while maize prices increased modestly, supported by continued export demand. In contrast, green gram prices declined as concerns over pesticide residues and grain quality reportedly led some Chinese buyers to reject shipments. Vegetable prices showed mixed trends. Onion and chili prices increased, supported by stronger export demand, while garlic and potato prices declined as increased market supplies, including higher inflows of Chinese garlic and potatoes, placed downward pressure on prices. Most animal-sourced food prices remained substantially above year-earlier levels, led by mutton, fish, and beef. Month-on-month price movements were generally modest, although mutton prices remained at record highs due to constrained goat supply, while fish prices continued to be supported by seasonal fishing restrictions through the end of June. The conflict in Iran and partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz — through which more than a quarter of the world’s oil and 20–30 percent of global fertilizer exports transit — continue to keep fuel and fertilizer prices in Myanmar well above year-earlier levels. Some farmers report cultivating smaller areas or reducing plowing in response. With paddy prices largely flat, thinner margins are likely to translate into lower fertilizer application rates and, ultimately, reduced monsoon-season production. Flood warnings have been issued in recent weeks for parts of the country. Moreover, a new El Niño phase is expected to develop within the coming weeks, increasing the risks of drought in the country.

Half a day’s pay for a healthy household diet in Papua New Guinea

Key takeaways • Healthy diets are too expensive for many in Papua New Guinea and can cost up to 45% of a low-skill urban worker’s daily wage. • Diet quality falls short of healthy standards, with only about half of surveyed workers meeting minimum dietary diversity recommendations. • Processed foods are driving health risks as high consumption of sugary drinks, instant noodles, and processed meats increases the risk of chronic diseases.

Productivity gains and work conditions in coercive labor markets: Experimental evidence from the Bangladesh brick sector

Productivity growth in competitive labor markets can improve worker welfare over time through higher wages or better conditions, but it is unclear if productivity gains benefit workers in coercive labor markets (where force or threats shape employment). We examine this issue in the Bangladesh brick sector using a randomized trial that introduced a more efficient production method. Despite large productivity improvements, we find no reduction in (high) rates of labor trafficking or child labor. These findings suggest that in the short-term, productivity growth alone may be insufficient to improve work conditions in coercive settings.

Gender, labor, and output allocation in Nigeria’s aquacultural sector

Aquaculture is an important source of food and income in Nigeria, but evidence on gender differences in labor participation and output allocation remains limited. Using nationally representative microdata from the National Agricultural Sample Survey and weighted ordinary least squares (OLS) and fractional logit models, this study examines whether the gender of the aquacultural manager is associated with labor participation, production, and allocation of output to home consumption and sales. The results show that after controlling for observable characteristics, households managed by women are not less engaged in aquaculture and do not produce less than households managed by men. Instead, gender differences appear in how farms operate and distribute their output. Households managed by women employ a substantially higher share of women’s labor and allocate approximately 4 percentage points more of their output to home consumption, even after conditioning on production scale, a result that is robust across OLS and fractional logit specifications. Sales shares, however, do not differ significantly by the manager’s gender. The consumption share results may suggest that women’s management is associated with greater home retention of output, which could carry food security implications not captured by standard income-focused metrics, although the survey does not permit direct assessment of food security or nutritional outcomes. The findings suggest that policies aimed at strengthening women’s participation in aquaculture should consider differences in how labor is organized and output allocation, alongside efforts to improve productivity and market participation.

Societal Challenges and Suitability Mapping of Resilient Nature-Based Water Solutions: Evidence from Case Studies in White Nile, El Gedaref, and Kassala, Sudan

This study focuses on three refugee-hosting areas in Sudan—Kassala, El Gedaref, and White Nile—with three main aims: to assess key societal and environmental challenges in each state; to identify Resilient Nature-based Water Solution (RNBWS) suited to local socio-ecological conditions; and to map areas most suitable for implementing these solutions to enhance environmental sustainability and livelihood resilience. The study combined a review of published and grey literature with multi-temporal satellite imagery and geographic information system (GIS)-based analysis. These methods were used to assess societal challenges, land-use and land-cover change, land degradation neutrality, and site characteristics such as slope and soil type. Spatial analysis, guided by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Global Standards for Nature-based Solutions and the Restoration Opportunities Assessment Methodology (ROAM), was used to identify and prioritize suitable areas for RNBWS. Results show that economic hardship, conflict, weak governance, natural disasters, and climate change are key drivers of displacement and migration across the three states. Over the last two decades, forestlands, shrublands, grasslands, and water bodies have declined, while agricultural land, settlements, and degraded areas have expanded. Socio-economic and governance constraints—including insecure land tenure, dependence on rainfed agriculture, food insecurity, competition over land, water, grazing, and fuelwood, and weak institutional coordination—shape both vulnerability and implementation feasibility. At the same time, the analysis identified extensive areas suitable for multiple RNBWS, including tree-based solutions, rainwater harvesting, soil and water conservation, and ecological restoration. The findings provide spatially explicit evidence to guide humanitarian programming, state-level planning, climate adaptation, and investment decisions in Sudan’s displacement-affected landscapes.

Can rice policy reform help improve food security and diets in India?

India’s rice policies have played a crucial role in shaping the country’s agricultural sector and ensuring food security for its vast and diverse population. Since rice is a staple food for millions, policies governing its production, pricing, and distribution are vital to maintaining sufficient supplies, stabilizing prices, and making rice affordable and accessible to everyone. However, as dietary patterns change and there is increasing concern about nutrition and environmental sustainability, it is important to consider whether shifting existing rice support toward more targeted or diversified strategies could better promote food security and healthier diets in India. This paper explores this question by evaluating, in advance, the effects of different ways of allocating current support using model-based scenario analysis. The study shows that eliminating all current support would do little to improve the affordability of rice and other foods or to make production more sustainable in India. In contrast, redirecting just a portion of input subsidies—the main type of domestic agricultural support—toward increased investment in research and development for productivity-boosting and climate-resilient technologies could drive meaningful change. This shift could promote more sustainable agricultural practices, lower food prices and the cost of a healthy diet and, ultimately, enhance food security and nutrition across the country.

Urban living linked to slightly healthier diets but also higher overweight and obesity among adolescents in Viet Nam

Key takeaways • Adolescents living in urban areas of Viet Nam face a complex mix of diet challenges , a recent study shows. • Urban adolescents face higher overnutrition risks. Overweight and obesity were nearly three times more common in urban than rural areas. • Adolescent diets were slightly healthier in urban than in rural areas. Urban adolescents ate more healthy foods but also consumed more unhealthy foods.

Links between school meal programs and regenerative agriculture: Scoping literature review

School meal programs (SMPs) are among the largest public investments in child well-being worldwide, and they have untapped potential to act as levers for sustainable food systems transformation. This discussion paper provides an overview of evidence on linkages between regenerative agriculture and SMPs, and also presents a framework to guide future analytical work on integrating regenerative agriculture and SMPs for food systems transformation. We conducted a scoping review using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Systematic Reviews (PRISMA). The reviewed literature reveals a geographically diverse but uneven distribution of research on how SMPs incentivize regenerative agriculture. The review reports emerging evidence on the ability of SMPs to generate positive outcomes for livelihoods and community development. That evidence, however, is limited in scope as it is dominated by studies on Brazil’s SMP. Beyond Brazil, our review found no evidence that conclusively establishes a causal relationship between SMPs and the uptake of regenerative agriculture. Much of the literature focuses on smallholder procurement, organic production, or agroecological practices more broadly, with relatively few studies explicitly measuring regenerative outcomes such as soil health restoration, biodiversity gains, or carbon sequestration.

Monitoring the impact of recent price volatility on food group consumption in Rwanda

This research uses high-frequency food price data from more than 60 Rwandan markets integrated with bi-weekly dietary consumption data collected during two periods in 2021/22 and 2023/24. During these periods considerable price fluctuations were observed, providing a unique opportunity to track consumption responses to large price instability created by global shocks.

Targeting fertilizer subsidies: Five lessons for sustainable and equitable policy reform

Key takeaways • A systematic analysis of 39 national fertilizer subsidy programs suggests major data gaps exist , complicating reform efforts. • While many fertilizer subsidies are designed to be universal, few meet that standard. Registration requirements, paperwork, and supply shortages often limit access. • Subsidies are progressive, reaching more poorer households, but this is mainly because those households are more likely to rely on farming. • Better data are essential for reform. Governments often lack reliable information on who receives subsidies and who benefits most.

Modernizing Bangladesh’s social protection system: Priorities for more effective and inclusive social protection

Bangladesh has made considerable progress in reducing poverty, with social protection programs playing an important role in protecting poor and vulnerable households from economic shocks and promoting human development. Despite these achievements, the system faces persistent challenges, including fragmented programs, weak coordination, targeting errors, and inefficient allocation of public resources. A substantial share of social protection spending is directed toward programs that do not primarily benefit the poor, while many vulnerable households remain inadequately covered. Addressing these shortcomings has become increasingly important as Bangladesh confronts rising food prices, slower economic growth, and climate-related risks. This policy note presents a roadmap for building a more efficient, equitable, and adaptive social protection system. It recommends scaling up successful programs while phasing out inefficient ones. By improving targeting and reducing benefit leakage, social protection coverage for poor households can be significantly expanded even within the current budget. This policy note presents a roadmap for building a more efficient, equitable, and adaptive social protection system. It recommends scaling up successful programs while phasing out inefficient ones. By improving targeting and reducing benefit leakage, social protection coverage for poor households can be significantly expanded even within the current budget.

Assessing environmental and social burdens in agrifood systems: Insights from Colombia and Peru

Agrifood systems (AFS) in Colombia and Peru generate substantial economic value but also impose significant environmental and social externalities that remain unpriced and largely invisible in policy and market decisions. Using the Global Impact Database (GID) and a True Cost Accounting (TCA) framework, this paper quantifies the hidden costs embedded in 19 AFS sectors, with a focus on seven major crop sectors. As one of the first cross-country applications of GID data in Latin America, the analysis offers a harmonized and comprehensive assessment of the true costs of food production, processing, and distribution. Results show that externalities are equivalent to 12 percent of AFS output in Colombia and 13 percent in Peru—a substantial burden that is not captured by conventional economic indicators. Environmental externalities dominate in both countries, driven primarily by land occupation, climate change, air pollution, and use of scarce water. Social externalities—especially underpayment, child labor, and gender wage gaps—are smaller in aggregate but become markedly more significant within crop sectors, as labor intensity and informality characterize production systems. Livestock, dairy, and bovine meat products consistently emerge as the most externality‑intensive sectors, while cereals, rice, sugarcane, oilseeds, and fruits and vegetables exhibit comparatively lower externality costs. Value‑chain decomposition shows that most externalities originate at the production stage (at farm level). These findings highlight several clear leverage points for targeted policy and investment: reducing environmental pressures in livestock systems, improving labor conditions in crop sectors, and integrating TCA metrics into national planning and sustainability strategies. Making the hidden costs visible is essential for advancing more sustainable, equitable, inclusive, and resilient food systems in Colombia and Peru.

“Smart” targeting of fertilizer subsidies in Kenya: Productivity, welfare, and soil health

Fertilizer subsidy programs in the Global South often juggle competing policy objectives of maximizing aggregate production and providing social protection for the poorest households. Using 2026 survey data from 3105 Kenyan households paired with parcel-level soil tests, this paper evaluates the targeting performance of Kenya’s National Fertilizer Subsidy Program (NFSP). Specifically, we analyze the extent to which the current “de facto” targeting—driven by digital registration and e-vouchers—aligns with these possibly conflicting policy goals. We find that the subsidy recipient populations who would maximize productivity do not tend to include the poorest and most vulnerable farmers. Furthermore, the current pool of NFSP beneficiaries shows limited overlap with the ideal beneficiaries for either policy objective. Among those who we would ideally target, we find that factors such as mobile phone ownership and knowledge of fertilizer recommendations may help predict which households actually receive benefits. We conclude that integrating soil testing into subsidy frameworks could significantly reduce these inefficiencies and improve the alignment between program delivery and national agricultural goals.

The early bird gets the cash: When should a scholarship for secondary school arrive? Evidence from Ethiopia

Key takeaways • A study in Ethiopia found conditional cash transfers increased secondary school enrollment. Youth offered transfers were more likely to enroll and stay in school. • Earlier notification delivered bigger impacts. Students informed more than a year in advance saw larger enrollment gains and higher exam pass rates. • Benefits extended beyond schooling. The program reduced early marriage and improved household well-being, including increased school enrollment among younger siblings.

Agricultural inputs and harvest among vegetable producers in rural Sri Lanka: Insights from a baseline survey of the Fruit and Vegetables for Sustainable Healthy Diets (FRESH) end-to-end evaluation

Sri Lanka’s agricultural sector plays a vital role in the food security and nutrition of its people. In recent years, overlapping crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, severe economic collapse, climate-related shocks, such as cyclone Ditwah and subsequent flooding, and global political unrest have disrupted food systems and exacerbated food insecurity for Sri Lankans. These challenges have constrained access to nutrient-rich foods, while increasing reliance on cheaper, less nutritious alternatives. At the same time, Sri Lanka has been undergoing a nutrition transition characterized by increased consumption of ultra-processed foods and a double burden of malnutrition including micronutrient deficiencies and rising rates of overweight and obesity.

Anticipatory action and early warning systems: A community engagement toolkit for the Sahel

A key finding from this work was that community leaders expressed strong demand for training and concrete guidance on how to act before disasters arrive. Leaders understood the value of early action and were eager for practical tools that could help their communities move from awareness to preparation. There was also significant appetite for understanding how anticipatory action programming could complement and strengthen the preventative efforts communities were already undertaking on their own. This motivated developing the following field-ready storyboard tool – designed to introduce anticipatory action to leaders and community members in concrete, accessible terms and to support community leaders in building the shared understanding and buy-in needed to put early action plans in place before the next crisis arrives.

When more migrants stay home: Evidence from Guatemala

Key takeaways • When emigration declines and return migration increases in Guatemala, economic growth is projected to improve, a new study indicates. GDP rises faster, exports increase, and manufacturing and agriculture perform better. • However, these economic gains do not reach everyone equally. Reduced migration lowers remittance inflows, slowing income and consumption growth among households that depend on them, especially in rural areas. • Policies should support returnees and vulnerable households. Facilitating migrants’ economic reintegration while protecting remittance-dependent households can help spread the benefits of stronger growth.

Intake of aquatic and terrestrial animal source foods among women of reproductive age in northern Tanzania

Aquatic foods and terrestrial animal source foods (TASF) provide crucial nutrients that build and maintain muscle mass and function. These foods are particularly rich in essential micronutrients, including iron, zinc, vitamin A (as retinol), vitamin D, and vitamin B12, as well as essential fatty acids. Notably, vitamin B12 is found almost exclusively in TASF and some aquatic foods, underscoring their importance in diets. Compared with plant-sourced protein foods, aquatic foods and TASF generally provide micronutrients in more bioavailable forms, which is critical for populations at risk of micronutrient deficiencies. However, aquatic foods and TASF have a higher environmental footprint than plant-sourced protein foods, requiring diversified strategies to meet global dietary needs under increasing environmental pressures.

Boosting resilience of agrifood systems through synchronization of financial and fiscal instruments

This chapter defines the scope of fiscal and financial instruments deployed to enhance the resilience of agrifood systems. The analysis covers core fiscal tools, such as public investment, subsidies, and policy guarantees as methods of government resource allocation, alongside the key financial instruments, including credit, insurance, financial derivatives, and public–private partnership (PPP) investments. Financial instruments are key to mobilizing funds and managing risks in building a resilient agrifood systems. Green finance plays a pivotal role in resource mobilization, and green insurance stands out for its ability to buffer shocks and safeguard stakeholders through risk management. Medium- and long-term loans (often development-oriented) provide essential funding for rural infrastructure, as well as food processing and storage equipment, all of which are critical to a resilient agrifood systems. Public funds and national financial and monetary policies are major drivers of green finance. Amid increasingly stringent global trade rules, structural shifts are occurring in government support for the agrifood systems, with more public funds being allocated to promote green and resilient systems. National financial policies, central bank monetary tools, and regulatory frameworks have played a crucial role in strengthening the coordination between fiscal and financial support for agrifood systems resilience. Blended finance is playing an increasingly important role in strengthening agrifood systems resilience. Public and philanthropic funds typically serve as seed capital to leverage private investment. On the one hand, blended finance amplifies the impact of public and philanthropic funding; on the other hand, it helps ensure efficient fund use in line with market principles. International organizations, philanthropic foundations, and specialized research institutions have emerged as key catalysts in this evolving ecosystem.

Qualitative research tools to study women’s voice, leadership, and the role of collectives and programs on household and community change

These guides are designed to support researchers and implementing organizations in conducting rigorous, in-depth qualitative research on women’s voice, agency, and leadership and its impacts on households and communities. This toolkit is intended for social scientists, research teams, and program staff who want a structured, validated approach to understanding how women experience and exercise voice and agency and how collectives, social movements, and programmatic interventions shape those experiences. It is designed to be used when the objective is to understand current conditions, to reconstruct the process of change that produced those conditions, and the consequences on communities and community groups of women’s leadership over time. The toolkit takes a multi-level approach, comprising five instruments that together capture individual, household, collective, and organizational perspectives on women’s leadership. Community- and individual-level instruments capture individual and collective experience from the perspective of male and female group members and non-members, leaders, and household members. An organizational-level instrument captures the programmatic perspective — what conditions preceded program entry, how decisions were made about where to start programming, and how organizations understand their own contribution to change. Together the instruments enable a more complete account of how women’s voice and leadership environments develop than any single data source could provide.

Development strategy under the permanent emergency: Building continuity amid crisis

Key takeaways • The world has entered a period of permanent emergency defined by continual overlapping crises. • Development strategy must be built to address persistent disruption , not temporary shocks. • Continuity should be the key priority. Strong institutions, infrastructure, and productive sectors help countries keep progressing during crises.

El Niño preparedness and response

El Niño is a phase in an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the Pacific Ocean. It occurs on average every 2 to 7 years and typically lasts between 9 months and 2 years. El Niño affects global weather patterns, resulting in above-average precipitation in some places and droughts in others. Malawi and its neighbors typically experience drier than usual weather during El Niño, which often leads to poor growing conditions and below-average harvests (Anderson et al., 2023). In mid-June 2026, conditions in the Pacific Ocean have surpassed El Niño thresholds, and it is becoming increasingly probable that they will strengthen further (NOAA, 2026).

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, June 2026

Retail prices of maize stagnated in the Southern and Central Regions. The continued arrival of newly harvested maize drove price declines in the Northern Region, reflecting its later harvest season compared with the rest of the country. Continued maize imports of maize from Mozambique and Zambia also helped keep Malawian prices down.

Clarifying the debate over AI in qualitative research