Coordinating AgMIP data and models across global and regional scales for 1.5°C and 2.0°C assessments

Cynthia Rosenzweig, Alex C Ruane, John Antle, Joshua Elliott, Muhammad Ashfaq, Daniel Mason-D'Croz, Keith Wiebe
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
2018

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has developed novel methods for Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of agriculture and food security in a changing world. The present study aims to perform a proof of concept of the CGRA to demonstrate advantages and challenges of the proposed framework. This effort responds to the request by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the implications of limiting global temperature increases to 1.5°C and 2.0°C above pre-industrial conditions. The CGRA consistently links disciplines, models and scales in order to track the complex chain of climate impacts and identify key vulnerabilities, feedbacks and uncertainties in managing future risk. CGRA proof-of-concept results show that, at the global scale, there are mixed areas of positive and negative simulated wheat and maize yield changes, with declines in some breadbasket regions, at both 1.5°C and 2.0°C.