A dynamic computable general equilibrium model with working capital for Honduras

Samuel Morley, Valeria PiƱeiro, Sherman Robinson
ifpri discussion paper

In this paper we develop a dynamic real-financial computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Honduras that incorporates working capital. The model is designed to be useful as a development tool and to be used by policymakers who deal with short-run macro and trade issues. Our model extends previous modeling work on Honduras in several ways. First, it uses a new, updated social accounting matrix (SAM) for the country. Second, it is a recursive dynamic model that incorporates unemployment of labor in the short run. Most CGE models are not useful for short-run analysis because they are comparative static models that assume full employment. We specify a fixed minimum wage and an informal sector and use a recursive dynamic framework to solve for the short-run adjustment process that occurs as the economy responds to shocks. Finally, the model introduces working capital as an additional factor of production, complementary to physical capital, which allows us to examine the impact of monetary shocks that affect the supply of credit on the balance of payments, employment, and real income during periods of adjustment.