Economywide impact of avian flu in Ghana

A dynamic CGE model analysis

The primary goal of this paper is to provide a quantitative assessment of the economywide impact of HPAI in Ghana under different scenarios. A dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model for Ghana has been developed for this study, and a recent (2005) social accounting matrix with a detailed production structure at both national and sub-national levels is used as the dataset for this analysis. Like many other West African countries, Ghana has a diversified agricultural economy. At the national level, the agricultural sector accounts for 35 percent of national GDP (Table 1). Within agriculture, root crops compose the largest sub-sector, accounting for almost one-fourth of agricultural GDP (AgGDP). The second largest agricultural sub-sector is staple crops other than cereals and root crops, which includes plantains, pulses and oilseed crops. This sub-sector accounts for 23.6 percent of AgGDP. Livestock, including poultry, cattle, sheep, goats and other livestock products (Table 2), actually is the smallest sub-sector in agriculture, after export crops, (18.7 percent), fishery and forestry (16.3 percent) and grain crops (9.5 percent), and accounts for 7.1 percent of AgGDP.

Diao, Xinshen
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International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) with the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) and Royal Veterinary College (RVC)
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