Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture - Factsheet on Middle East and North Africa

  • The crop modeling results indicate that climate change will have a negative effect on crop yields in the Middle East and North Africa in 2050. The region will face yield declines of up to 30 percent for rice, about 47 percent for maize and 20 percent for wheat.

  • Without climate change, calorie availability is expected to increase in the Middle East and North Africa between 2000 and 2050, from 2,846 to 3,119 daily calories per person. With climate change, however, calorie availability in the region in 2050 will be about 2,500, or up to 500 calories less per person per day, compared to a no-climate change scenario.

  • In a no-climate change scenario, North Africa and the Middle East will see dramatic improvements in the number of malnourished children between 2000 and 2050, declining from 3.5 million to just over 1 million. Climate change will counteract much of this progress, resulting in over 2 million malnourished children in 2050, 1 million more than in a no-climate change scenario.

  • To counteract the effects of climate change on nutrition, North Africa and the Middle East require additional annual investments of 241-271 million USD. The majority of investment expenditures should be in agricultural research.

Source: International Food Policy Research Institute, Climate Change: Impact on Agriculture and Costs of Adaptation, 2009

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