Integrated economic modeling of global and regional micronutrient security

Siwa Msangi, Timothy B. Sulser, Andrew Bouis, Daniel Hawes, Miroslav Batka
harvestplus working paper
2010

In this paper, we examine the implications of alternative country-specific scenarios for biofortification on the reduction of micronutrient deficiency prevalence in under-fives. The scenarios are implemented within a long-term projections model of agriculture production and consumption, given the timeframe needed to develop and implement biofortification of crops and the need to account for changing diets over time. The effectiveness of the various biofortification strategies is largely determined by the evolution of regional dietary patterns over time, which show continued reliance on staple food crops among the poor. It suggests that cereal grain-focused biofortification is likely to be most effective in South Asia, while targeting roots and tubers is most effective in Sub-Saharan Africa.