Modeling the distribution and probability of aflatoxin occurrence using environmental data

Aflatoxins, which are produced by Aspergillus molds, depend on environmental conditions in order to thrive. These toxins occur under drought conditions, when plants are more vulnerable to colonization by Aspergillus (Sanders et al. 1993), and post-harvest storage conditions that involve high humidity.

In recent years, there have been numerous studies of on the use of ecological niche models to determine species distribution. These models use species presence records recorded as point locations with environmental layers to predict the distribution of the species. In this paper, we discuss our plan to use the Maxent program (Phillips, Dudik, and Schapire 2004; Phillips, Anderson, and Schapire 2006) to create an ecological niche model for aflatoxin.

Author: 
Masuoka, Penny
Chamberlin, Judith
Elias, Maribel
Published date: 
2010
Publisher: 
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
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