Publications and Datasets

Multi-stakeholder platforms for enabling agroecological transitions: Configurations and lessons from seven agroecological living landscapes

Agroecological transition (AET) of agrifood systems is a multidimensional process involving diverse stakeholders. Participatory innovation and co-creation of knowledge are also at the heart of agroecology. Deliberately designed Multi-stakeholder platforms (MSPs) are collaborative spaces conducive to driving this type of collaboration and change. However, how these processes are operationalized is poorly documented. This study contributes to filling this gap by highlighting how MSPs can be important vehicles for enabling AETs. As part of the CGIAR Initiative on Agroecology, Agroecological Living Landscapes (ALLs) were set up as MSPs specifically focusing on co-creation of agroecological innovations. By examining different ALL configurations in seven countries, we analyze MSP attributes that can enable and shape AETs at different stages or “levels” of the transition pathway. We find that MSPs can advance different levels of the transition pathway simultaneously by working on multiple innovations involving various stakeholder coalitions. MSPs navigate complex environments, with diverse stakeholders playing multiple policy and non-policy roles to support AETs. The results also illustrate the intersection between MSP configuration and AET objectives, such as policy change, agroecology market support, and scaling adoption. Finally, we discuss the non-linear nature of AET pathways and political economy considerations for stakeholder engagement in MSPs.

Leveraging social protection to strengthen women’s and girls’ climate-resilience in agrifood systems

Women and girls (WGs) have important roles in making agrifood systems more climate resilient. However, systemic inequalities in access to resources, technologies, information, services, and networks, alongside limited agency and restrictive gender norms, reduce their capacity to adapt to and mitigate climate change. WGs’ constraints on adaptation bear implications on the wellbeing of WGs, their households, and the sustainability of agrifood systems. With growing recognition that social protection helps promote WGs’ resilience in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) at large scale, stakeholders are interested in developing social protection programs that are responsive to both climate change and gender inequality. However, little is known about effective approaches. We develop a conceptual framework on how social assistance – the most prevalent type of social protection programming in many LMICs – affects WGs’ coping, adaptive, and mitigative responses to climate hazards. We reflect on the emerging evidence and propose recommendations on program design features that may more effectively promote WGs’ climate resilience in agrifood systems. We additionally highlight important directions for future research to guide practice.

Repairing the mosaic: The political economy of landscape-level agroecological transitions in India

Relevance of more stringent discharge standards for acute malnutrition treatment: A pooled analysis of post-treatment relapse in 21 studies

Cereal production, markets, and policy in Sudan

Cereal production has long been a cornerstone of Sudan’s food security and economy, especially wheat, sorghum, and millet. Given the importance of these staples, policy related to imports and prices of wheat (and sorghum, to a lesser extent) has major effects on food production and consumption. In particular, before 2023, government interventions in wheat markets involved huge implicit—and sometimes explicit—fiscal costs, including interventions on large food aid inflows, official sales prices, direct controls on commercial imports, and subsidies on wheat milling (D’Silva and Badawi 1988; Faki and Taha 2009; Abdelaziz et al. 2022). These policies have generally benefited urban consumers at the expense of rural producers and have not always been well-targeted to the poor (Resnick 2021; Resnick 2026, Chapter 3 in this volume).

Monitoring economic activities: Leveraging satellite and remote-sensing technologies

Understanding disruptions to economic activities in conflict-affected regions such as Sudan is essential for policymakers, humanitarian organizations, and researchers seeking to develop effective response strategies. However, traditional data collection methods, such as official government statistics and household surveys, become unreliable or impractical in these contexts due to security risks, displacement, and institutional breakdowns. In such environments, satellite and remote-sensing technologies provide a powerful alternative, offering near real-time, scalable, and objective insights into economic disturbances, infrastructure damage, population displacement, and environmental degradation. Advances in Earth observation technologies now allow researchers to monitor the economic consequences of conflicts with great accuracy and efficiency, even in regions where on-the-ground data collection is impossible (Hoogeveen et al. 2016; Hoogeveen and Pape 2020; Abay et al. 2023).

Origins and causes of Sudan’s conflict: Domestic and international perspectives

The war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and its subsidiary paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that began in April 2023 follows a succession of civil wars that devasted the economically marginalized, socially ostracized, and politically disenfranchised southern and western regions of Sudan, but it has now brought the conflict to the country’s geographic and economic power center. Unlike the decades-long North–South civil wars or the ongoing deadly conflict in Darfur, today’s conflict began in Khartoum and the agriculturally rich heartland of Central Sudan, bringing death and destruction to the central Aj Jazirah and Sennar states, before moving south and west to Darfur and Kordofan. The same historical, economic, political, and ethnic factors that fueled those previous conflicts are at play now, as the belligerent factions seek to control the country’s resources. This time, however, after working together to halt efforts to democratize Sudan, the SAF and RSF turned on each other, each seeking to dominate the kleptocratic state system.

State failure and elite capture of Sudan’s agrifood system

Since the outbreak of Sudan’s civil war in April 2023, nearly 12 million people have been displaced, and an estimated 44,000 have been directly killed by the violence (UNHCR 2026; ACLED 2025). Many more are estimated to have suffered from war-related disease and malnutrition (Roberts 2025). The decimation of the capital city of Khartoum—the epicenter of the jubilant civilian uprisings in 2019—epitomizes the country’s short journey from a promising democratic opening to a failed state.

Introduction [in War and resilience: The multifaceted impacts of Sudan’s conflict and pathways to recovery]

Sudan is experiencing one of the most severe humanitarian and economic crises in its modern history due to the ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The war has devastated livelihoods, displaced millions, and significantly weakened the country’s agrifood system and broader economic structure. Since the conflict erupted in April 2023, it has escalated into the world’s largest displacement crisis, with nearly 12 million people—nearly one-third of Sudan’s population-forced to flee their homes, including 4.5 million refugees who have sought safety in neighboring countries, including Egypt, Chad, South Sudan, and Ethiopia.

Economywide impact of Sudan’s conflict and pathways to recovery

Massive human displacement and economic devastation have resulted from Sudan’s ongoing conflict, which erupted on April 15, 2023, between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, as of February 2, 2026, nearly 12 million people were internally displaced in Sudan, and 4.5 million had sought refuge in neighboring countries (UNHCR 2026). Public services, including health, education, and sanitation, have collapsed in many regions, compounding the humanitarian crisis and further destabilizing the socioeconomic fabric of the country.

Conflict-induced trade dynamics: A gravity framework analysis of Sudan’s agricultural exports

Long before the April 2023 eruption of armed conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Sudan’s economy was crippled by conflicts. The country’s agricultural production and productivity, internal trade, exports, and overall macroeconomic performance have all been adversely affected, and disruptions to the agrifood system, food insecurity, poverty, and malnutrition will likely remain if the conflict continues.

Food consumption patterns and dietary diversity amid conflict

Sudan is currently experiencing one of the most severe food security crises globally. According to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) more than 21.2 million people—45 percent of the population—are acutely food insecure (IPC Phase 3 or above), with more than 146,000 people facing catastrophic levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 5) as of February 2026 (IPC 2025). As of September 2025, El-Fasher (North Darfur) and the besieged town of Kadugli (South Kordofan) were classified as experiencing famine (IPC Phase 5) with reasonable evidence. These conditions were expected to persist through January 2026. The crisis has also led to the acute malnutrition of 4.7 million children under five and pregnant and breastfeeding women and girls (IPC 2024a).

War and resilience: The multifaceted impacts of Sudan’s conflict and pathways to recovery

Sudan is facing one of the most severe humanitarian and economic crises in its modern history. The current civil war has displaced millions and severely damaged livelihoods, markets, and institutions, causing a rapid deterioration in the economy, agrifood systems, and population welfare. War and Resilience: The Multifaceted Impacts of Sudan’s Conflict and Pathways to Recovery situates the current conflict within Sudan’s longer historical trajectory, explaining how structural factors contributed to the war’s progression and scale. Drawing on recent household and enterprise surveys, satellite indicators, market price data, and economywide modeling, the book documents the crisis’s impacts and identifies realistic entry points for stabilization and recovery. Written by leading IFPRI researchers and colleagues, War and Resilience highlights how Sudan’s population has shown remarkable resilience through social networks, remittances, informal support systems, and adaptation across rural and urban settings. Its final chapters offer decision-makers a forward-looking assessment of pathways toward recovery.

Shocks, coping, and household livelihood strategies in wartime

Since the eruption of conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in April 2023, Sudan has experienced one of the most severe humanitarian and economic crises in recent history. Beyond the tragic toll in lost and displaced lives, the conflict has profoundly disrupted livelihoods, dismantled social safety nets, and eroded the foundations of food and income security across the country. The ongoing war has affected millions, displacing communities and decimating livelihood systems across both rural and urban areas.

Human capital at risk: The impact of conflict on health and education in Sudan

Human capital, including the knowledge, skills, and health of a population, is the foundation for economic growth and development (Lucas Jr. 1988; Mankiw et al. 1992; Pelinescu 2015). Healthcare and education stand out as critical pillars that directly enhance human capital, influencing individual well-being, workforce productivity, and development (Barro and Sala-i-Martin 1995; Schultz 2003; Hanushek and Woessman 2012). Access to quality healthcare ensures a healthy and productive population capable of contributing to economic activities, while education equips individuals with the skills and knowledge essential for innovation and global competitiveness. Together, these sectors constitute the backbone of a nation’s resilience and long-term prosperity (Kim and Ahn 2020; Wang and Gu 2024).

Worsening food security in Sudan amid conflict

The conflict in Sudan, primarily between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has escalated since April 2023 into a significant crisis, affecting the nation’s stability and security and worsening humanitarian conditions. The conflict has severely degraded the food security of many Sudanese households, with profound effects on their diets, coping strategies, and overall welfare.

Delivering aid amid active conflict and insecurity: Digital transfers for delivering social and humanitarian assistance in Sudan

The recent resurgence of armed conflict in Africa is increasing the need for shock-responsive humanitarian and social assistance programs. For example, the armed conflict in Sudan, which erupted in April 2023, has caused the world’s largest displacement crisis, creating a multifaceted humanitarian crisis that requires significant investments in assistance. Armed conflicts in Africa are aggravating poverty and hunger (Corral et al. 2020) and threatening important gains in poverty reduction made in the last few decades. This is causing major setbacks to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 (Corral et al. 2020; World Bank Group 2020), particularly SDG2 (Zero Hunger), SDG3 (Good Health and Well-Being), and SDG16 (Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions).

Drivers of vulnerability and low resilience in Sudan

Sudan is currently facing one of the most severe crises in its modern history, with conflict, economic collapse, and climate disasters driving unprecedented levels of instability. Since April 2023, when the conflict erupted between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the country has experienced a complete breakdown in governance and a near-total collapse of key economic and social structures, leading to one of the world’s largest internal displacement crises and an escalating humanitarian emergency.

A Sudanese strategy for postconflict, agriculture-led transformative growth

The intense factional war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Force (RSF) that erupted in April 2023 has devastated Sudan. This war is a tragic legacy of the kleptocratic regime of General Omar Al-Bashir, which ruled the country from 1989 until it was deposed by the leadership of the two armies in 2019, following a massive popular uprising in December 2018 (see Chapter 2 for details). The presence of a divided military institution in Sudan has been attributed to the coup-proofing strategy of “coup-fearing” autocrats, who were willing to undermine the state’s military effectiveness to extend their own tenure (Powell 2014).

Toward a prosperous and secure Sudan: A way forward

As Sudan’s ongoing conflict enters its third year, the scale of human suffering and economic devastation continues to escalate. The brutal war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has devastated livelihoods, shattered infrastructure, and crippled the country’s agrifood systems and broader economy. Nearly 12 million people—one-fourth of Sudan’s population—have been displaced, including more than 4 million refugees who have fled to neighboring countries such as Egypt, Chad, South Sudan, and Ethiopia (UNHCR 2026). The death toll is estimated to be more than 44,000 as of September 2025 (ACLED 2025), though some assessments suggest fatalities could exceed 150,000 when accounting for deaths from violence, starvation, and disease (Sampson 2025). Children have borne the brunt of this devastation: 16 million are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance, and more than 17 million school-age children are currently out of school. The widespread destruction of hospitals, schools, and essential services continues to deepen the crisis, threatening to reverse decades of development and push the country toward systemic collapse.

Saving lives through technology: Mobile phones and infant mortality

Asking the right question: Toward a research agenda for responsible GAI in agricultural extension

This study explores how generative AI (GAI) tools for agricultural extension can be designed and evaluated more responsibly. While current GAI systems offer scalable, personalized advice, they often ignore the lived realities of smallholder farmers—especially women—by relying on generic datasets and rigid evaluation metrics. We investigate three complementary methods: adversarial testing to expose gendered and contextual blind spots in model outputs; deliberative stakeholder engagement using the C-H-A-T framework, which focused on Collective knowledge, Human insight, Augmentation, and Trust, to surface value tensions and design trade-offs; and field-level insights from extension officers to uncover trust-building, diagnostic reasoning, and social intelligence absent from static GAI interactions. Together, these approaches reveal that responsible GAI requires more than technical accuracy. It demands participatory design processes that foreground user realities, surface stakeholder assumptions, and account for social and institutional context. We recommend developing gender-responsive benchmarks, embedding reflexive, participatory design methods, and modeling advisory reasoning based on real-world extension practice. The findings contribute to a growing agenda for responsible AI development—highlighting the importance of aligning GAI tools not only with technical goals, but with the social, cultural, and political contexts in which they operate.

Trade-offs and synergies in agroecosystem services with organic and integrated nutrient management in South Asian agri-food systems: Evidence from a meta-analysis

Absorption of zinc from mixed diets containing conventional Bangladeshi rice, zinc-biofortified Bangladeshi rice, or conventional Bangladeshi rice with added zinc among young children from a peri-urban community in Bangladesh

Background Previous studies showed total absorbed zinc (TAZ) was comparable in diets containing a higher zinc rice variety or conventional rice variety (Lo-Zn CR). This study compared TAZ in a polished zinc-biofortified rice (Hi-Zn BfR) compared with Lo-Zn CR. Objective To measure the amount of TAZ by young Bangladeshi children from Hi-Zn BfR, Lo-Zn CR, or CR plus sufficient exogenous zinc fortificant (Lo-Zn CR+Zn) matching the zinc content of Hi-Zn BfR. Methods A total of 47 children 36–59-mo-old were enrolled in a crossover study. On the day 1, children received a Lo-Zn CR diet. On days 2 and 4, group A (n = 23) received 150 g of Lo-Zn CR and group B (n = 24) received 150g of Lo-Zn CR+Zn as part of a mixed diet. On days 3 and 5, both groups received 150 g of Hi-Zn BfR. Fractional zinc absorption (FZA) was measured in all diet periods using a triple-isotope tracer (oral 67-Zn and 70-Zn; intravenous 68-Zn) ratio technique; TAZ was calculated as product of zinc intake [total dietary zinc (TDZ)] and FZA. Results TDZ was 4.88, 6.14, and 6.70 mg/d when fed Lo-Zn CR-, Lo-Zn CR+Zn-, and Hi-Zn BfR-containing diets, respectively. Mean FZA: 0.23 ± 0.041, 0.169 ± 0.035, and 0.212 ± 0.048 for respective diets (Lo-Zn CR compared with Hi-Zn BfR: P = 0.26; Lo-Zn CR+Zn compared with Hi-Zn BfR: P < 0.001; and Lo-Zn CR compared with Lo-Zn CR+Zn: P < 0.001). Mean TAZ from respective diets were 1.13 ± 0.23, 1.04 ± 0.20, and 1.40 ± 0.33mg/d. TAZ was not significantly different between Lo-Zn CR and Lo-Zn CR+Zn diets (P = 0.52) but was significantly more in Hi-Zn BfR when compared with other 2 diets (P < 0.001 for both). Conclusions A single-day ration (150 g total) in 3 equally divided servings of Hi-Zn BfR could satisfy 47% of the recommended daily requirement of zinc (3 mg/d) for children 1–3-y old and 28% for children 4–8-y old (5 mg/d) compared with 37% and 23% from Lo-Zn CR for the same age groups, respectively. Hi-Zn BfR is a meaningful component of preventive option for childhood zinc deficiency where rice is staple.

Systematic risk profiling: Assessing compounding economic risks in developing countries

This paper presents a systematic risk profiling (SRP) framework to identify the most critical economic risks facing developing countries. Integrating computable general equilibrium (CGE) models with historical shock data and machine-learning tools, we examine how compound shocks affect development outcomes. We apply this method to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi, simulating thousands of plausible combinations of world price, capital flow, and productivity exogenous shocks and their impacts on countries’ GDP, household consumption, poverty, and undernourishment. The results reveal distinct risk profiles driven by structural differences: Kenya’s primary vulnerability is the volatility in global beverage crop prices, whereas Rwanda and Malawi face the highest risks from domestic root crop and cereal yields, respectively. These findings underscore that vulnerability is not just a function of shock magnitude, but of the specific structure of each economy. Specifically, the high economic volatility in Malawi and Rwanda is driven by the larger role of subsistence agriculture and more volatile domestic yields, whereas Kenya’s agricultural sector is more export-oriented. Unlike standard ad hoc scenario analysis, SRP quantifies both the likelihood of compound events and the relative importance of their drivers. This transparent, scalable framework provides policymakers a new tool to move beyond reactive measures and design targeted, country-specific resilience strategies for an increasingly volatile world.

Nutrition, diet, and academic performance among school-age children in urban low-income settings: A case-control study in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Objective To examine the effects of nutrition, dietary practices, and other related factors on academic performance and IQ among children in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Methods A case-control study was conducted among 309 children aged 6–14 years attending public and private schools in low-income districts of Addis Ababa from March to August 2023. Binary and multinomial logistic regression models were used to estimate crude (COR) and adjusted odds ratios (AOR) with 95% confidence intervals. Results Hand washing (AOR = 3.7; 95% CI: 1.4, 9.8), access to toilets (AOR = 3.37; 95% CI: 1.25, 9.09), and effective teaching (AOR = 2.94; 95% CI: 1.04, 8.33) good academic performance. Stunting (AOR = 0.16; 95% CI: 0.04, 0.59), underweight (AOR = 0.25; 95% CI: 0.09, 0.70), and overweight (AOR = 0.04; 95% CI: 0.01, 0.14) were associated with poor academic performance. Low meal frequency (AOR = 2.65; 95% CI: 1.06, 6.67) and teachers with BA/BSc degrees (AOR = 6.97; 95% CI: 1.14, 42.68) predicted lower IQ. Conclusion Many factors, especially nutrition and diet, strongly influence academic and cognitive performance; targeted school interventions improve outcomes.

When the fire ends: Straw burning, regulation, and pollution substitution

Environmental regulations can trigger unintended pollution externalities if they lack well-designed economic incentives or fail to account for the responses of polluters. This paper examines the effectiveness and unintended consequences of the Universal Prohibition on Straw Burning (UPSB) policy in China. By exploiting a generalized difference-in-differences design, we find that the UPSB policy significantly reduces agricultural fires and air pollution through top-down campaign-style enforcement. However, as straw burning is commonly used to kill pests and fertilize the soil, the UPSB policy also increases the use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, leading to magnified water pollution. Cost-benefit analysis suggests that much of the health benefit from improved air quality is offset by the health cost from degraded water quality. Our findings highlight the importance of considering the potential responses of individuals subject to the regulation when conducting policy evaluation.

The effects of cash and group therapy in the context of conflict: Evidence from a randomized evaluation in Ethiopia

The prevalence of depression remains high in low-income contexts, particularly those affected by conflict. This paper reports on a randomized controlled trial conducted in rural Ethiopia assessing the effects of a psychological (group therapy) intervention delivered by non-specialist health staff, as well as a large one-time cash transfer delivered post-therapy. The trial includes three arms comparing group therapy, cash, and both jointly to a status quo control within a sample of individuals reporting some depressive symptoms or functional impairment at baseline. The study occurred between 2022 and 2024, during a period of active armed conflict. Findings show that sixteen months post-baseline, there are no persistent positive effects of group therapy alone; cash alone improves time use and economic outcomes. Group therapy and cash jointly improve psychosocial skills, time use, and economic outcomes, and in areas not affected by conflict, the joint intervention also improves mental health.

Synopsis: Evolution of and opportunities for the fresh produce value chain in PNG

Enhancing the fresh produce value chain in PNG will contribute to wider development goals including rural economic growth, food and nutrition security and rural employment diversification. An important component of strengthening agriculture value chains in PNG will be increasing crop productivity and quality. However, equally important is strengthening agricultural markets and rural – urban linkages. Recognizing the importance of supporting greater domestic fresh produce marketing, the PNG government (GoPNG) continues to promote investments that link farmers to markets, primarily through the Fresh Produce Development Agency (FPDA) (DAL 2023). A principal mechanism for promoting rural economic growth and strengthening agriculture value chains involves enabling the more commercially oriented smallholder farming households to significantly increase their productivity through greater use of modern farming inputs over an increasing share of local arable land (Benny et al., 2022). As the income of more productive farm households grows, their demand for locally produced goods and services increases. These goods and services are generally labor-intensive, require limited capital in their production, and are typically not marketed outside of the local community. This includes construction and associated services; transport and infrastructure services; education, health, and other social services; food and beverage processing; and the like, which facilitate greater (and often higher value) labor diversification and specialization within the rural economy. Fresh produce value chains remain understudied in many low- and middle-income countries, despite their demonstrated role in promoting rural economic growth, improved welfare, and dietary diversity. This lack of information and analysis is particularly acute in Papua New Guinea (PNG), whereby dated or limited evidence exists on agriculture production and expansion, fresh produce trade flows, price formation and price variation over time, throughout seasons, and across regions. Understanding these production and market dynamics is essential for supporting value chain actors in developing profitable and sustainable systems that provide farmers with the incentives they need to supply fresh produce to trustworthy and transparent markets. This synopsis draws upon 2 detailed studies (Schmidt et al., 2025; and Minten et al., 2025) that aim to inform opportunities for investment in the fresh produce value chain by: 1) analyzing remote sensing data to estimate agricultural expansion in horticulture production areas of the PNG highlands; 2) evaluating unique market flow and fresh produce price data collected over a 15-year period by FPDA; and 3) estimating the price margins of each value chain actor in the fresh produce value chain through in-depth stakeholder interviews. The structure of this synopsis report is as follows. Section 2 provides an analysis of agriculture expansion over time and fresh produce market flows from the Highlands fresh produce corridor. Section 3 examines price trends and marketing margins across 6 key markets in diverse locations of the country. Section 4 reports on in-depth stakeholder interviews to unpackage costs along the value chain from farmgate to retailer. Section 5 concludes with key findings and implications.

Market channel and other drivers of tomato farmer production and handling practices in Nigeria

Non-contract farming arrangements remain the dominant marketing option for poor, often food-insecure smallholder farmers in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs), yet such farming arrangements are less studied than contract farming. Using a case study of 1,673 Nigerian tomato farmers, this study examined whether selling to midstream actors such as wholesalers and aggregators (via informal market arrangements) supports farmers’ adoption of good agricultural practices. We first explored the drivers of farmer sales to different market channels using a multinomial logit model. Then, using multivariate probit analysis, we identified factors associated with the adoption of good agricultural practices (GAP) and good handling practices (GHP) with particular attention to a farmers’ market channel. We found that larger smallholder farmers using modern irrigation are more likely to sell to midstream actors. We also found that selling to wholesalers and aggregators is an important determinant of farmers’ adoption of GAP and GHP, and this holds even for the smallest smallholder farmers. These results confirm that even where informal trading arrangements dominate (as is common in most LMICs), value chain actors in the midstream of food supply chains can support farmer adoption of GAP and GHP. These relationships have important implications for food security via enhancing the livelihoods of smallholder producers and improving the availability and safety of fresh produce for consumers, and thus should be leveraged in the design and implementation of efforts to expand farmer adoption of GAP and GHP.

Consequences of increased farm resilience on food security in Tajikistan

Unprecedented climate change, socio-economic shocks, and political conflict exacerbate food insecurity. Worsened conditions and increased vulnerability now give prominence to improving farm resilience to withstand shocks. This article aims to analyse the effect of farm resilience on food security outcomes in Tajikistan. Using panel data collected in 12 districts in the Khatlon Province of Tajikistan from 2015 to 2023, the study has the following. (a) measure farm resilience determinants (pillars) through adaptive capacity, transformation capacity, and robustness; (b) estimate the relationship between resilience pillars and food security outcomes; (c) cluster farm households based on the level of resilience pillars; and (d) estimate the effect of farm resilience on food security outcomes. The study first measures farm resilience pillars using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Next, Latent Profile Analysis (LPA) is used to classify farm households into three resilience categories: “Low Resilience”, “Medium Resilience”, and “High Resilience”. The estimation strategy involves making causal claims using LPA and Propensity Score Matching (PSM) techniques. Our results suggest a positive relationship between farm resilience and food security outcomes. Our findings also confirm that “High Resilience” and “Medium Resilience” profiles experience better dietary diversity, higher fruit and vegetable consumption, or decreased household hunger, compared to the “Low Resilience” profile. Such a positive relationship underlines the importance of strengthening farm resilience. Further development agendas for Tajikistan should consider resilience thinking, especially in shock-prone zones. Objectives: (a) measure farm resilience determinants (pillars) through adaptive capacity, transformation capacity, and robustness; (b) estimate the relationship between resilience pillars and food security outcomes; (c) cluster farm households based on the level of resilience pillars; and (d) estimate the effect of farm resilience on food security outcomes. The study first measures farm resilience pillars using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Next, Latent Profile Analysis (LPA) is used to classify farm households into three resilience categories: “Low Resilience”, “Medium Resilience”, and “High Resilience”. The estimation strategy involves making causal claims using LPA and Propensity Score Matching (PSM) techniques. Our results suggest a positive relationship between farm resilience and food security outcomes. Our findings also confirm that “High Resilience” and “Medium Resilience” profiles experience better dietary diversity, higher fruit and vegetable consumption, or decreased household hunger, compared to the “Low Resilience” profile. Such a positive relationship underlines the importance of strengthening farm resilience. Further development agendas for Tajikistan should consider resilience thinking, especially in shock-prone zones.

Social protection and gender: Policy, practice, and research

Gender considerations in the design and delivery of programs are critical for social protection to achieve its primary objectives of reducing poverty and vulnerability. First, prevalence and risk factors for poverty differ by gender, as does the nature of vulnerability. Thus, to sustainably reduce poverty for all, strategies must take gender into account. Second, gender shapes the impact of social protection. Not only are the effects of programs mediated by gender norms and intra house hold dynamics, but gender differences in opportunities, constraints, and preferences determine the extent to which dif fer ent individuals can participate in and benefit from social protection. Third, entrenched societal inequities imply that women and girls are often disproportionately held back from achieving their potential. Addressing these inequities through social protection may be particularly promising to achieve longer- term poverty- reduction goals, increase productive efficiency, and promote a better, more sustainable future. Lastly, to the extent that social protection intrinsically aims to increase equity, there may be an implicit mandate to prioritize women and girls.

Agriculture after independence

Market flows and price patterns of fresh produce in Papua New Guinea

This study analyzes the fresh produce market in Papua New Guinea (PNG) using unique market flow and price data collected by the Fresh Produce Development Agency (FPDA) over the past 15 years across multiple markets. We document substantial flows of fresh produce from diverse production zones to major urban centers, with Port Moresby emerging as the primary terminal market. Hard fresh produce and sweet potato supplied there largely originate from the Highlands, while other staples and soft fresh produce are mostly sourced from other regions. Price analysis reveals four key patterns: (i) fresh produce prices have risen significantly relative to non-food products, particularly for items less supplied by the Highlands; (ii) prices exhibit strong seasonality—lowest at year-end and highest mid-year (June–August)—reflecting major cultivation periods and possibly seasonality in household labor availability; (iii) marketing margins have increased substantially, especially for soft fresh produce, creating new opportunities for Highland producers to compete in Port Moresby markets; and (iv) in 2023–2025, marketing and wastage costs accounted for the largest share of retail prices in Port Moresby—up to 85 percent for cabbage—while producer shares ranged from 15 percent for cabbage to 61 percent for Irish potatoes. These findings underscore evolving market dynamics and the critical role of supply chain efficiency in PNG’s fresh produce sector.

Scoping report: Understanding the fresh produce value chain in Papua New Guinea

The Government of Papua New Guinea (GoPNG) aims to promote agricultural transformation through strategic investments to support greater commercialization via increases in production output and quality. To accomplish this goal, the GoPNG recently released the National Agriculture Sector Plan (NASP) 2024-2033 which acknowledges the fresh produce sector’s potential to contribute to poverty alleviation and economic growth via increased income for rural farmers (Department of Agriculture and Livestock 2023). With growing urbanization and expanding mining operations, the demand for fresh produce is increasing within the country (Chang et al. 2015). While the challenges that PNG faces to promote a more competitive fresh produce agriculture sector are not simple hurdles to overcome, they are not impossible barriers to surpass either. This report sets out to achieve three goals: 1) provide an assessment of PNG’s fresh produce farming and sales trends using remote sensing data and recent data collected by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Fresh Produce Development Agency (FPDA); 2) report on current programming (namely Market for Village Farmers) aimed at supporting fresh produce value chain development; and 3) inform future programming of fresh produce value chain support through a detailed account of a scoping study of the fresh produce sector conducted in June, 2025 and November, 2025.

The Urban Food Environments and Diets (UFED) Tool

How do urban food environments shape diets and nutritional status? The UFED tool offers guidance on suggested methods, indicators, and practical tips for assessing diets and food environments in urban and peri-urban settings, many of which may also be relevant for rural contexts.

Myanmar monthly food price report – February 2026

Rice prices in February 2026 remained significantly lower year-on-year (down 13 percent), although they increased slightly month-on-month, indicating an early recovery following several months of decline driven by lower international prices and increased domestic supply. While easing pressure on consumers, these trends continue to raise concerns for paddy producers facing rising input costs. Export crop prices strengthened this month, with pulses and maize increasing month-on-month supported by the revised foreign exchange policy and stronger international market demand. Vegetable prices showed mixed year-on-year trends but increased month-on-month, partly driven by seasonal demand during the Tabaung festival period. Supply disruptions, including weather-related production impacts, also influenced price movements for key crops such as potato and chili. Animal-sourced food prices continued to rise sharply year-on-year, led by mutton, chicken, and fish, reflecting supply constraints, disease outbreaks, and strong export demand. The war in Iran has led to a partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than a quarter of the world’s oil exports and 20–30 percent of global fertilizer exports pass. These developments are especially concerning for Myanmar’s agrifood system, which depends heavily on fuel for transport, irrigation, mechanization, and processing. In addition, disruptions in fertilizer supply could adversely affect the upcoming monsoon season.

Shaken, but Not Deterred : Acute Stressors and the Formation of Hope and Aspirations among Tertiary-Educated Youth in Myanmar in the Aftermath of the 2025 Earthquake

Although hope and aspirations are increasingly considered to be both intrinsically and instrumentally valuable, quantitative evidence on the formation of these factors is limited. Using data from a sample of educated youth in Myanmar, this paper documents the relationship between various sources of chronic (ongoing and long-term) and acute (brief and intense) stressors with measures of hope and aspirations. The findings indicate that hope and aspirations are tightly linked with chronic stressors (low relative income and labor market mismatch). However, exposure to an acute stressor (a large and destructive earthquake) does not meaningfully influence hope and aspirations. These results are relevant to both development and emergency relief efforts that consider incorporating mental health into policy design and implementation. The results suggest that policies that aim to address sources of chronic stress (such as poverty and employment outcomes) may have underappreciated psychological benefits that complement standard economic benefits measured in the form of higher wages and employment outcomes. This further emphasizes the need to continue efforts toward development objectives that can mitigate the effects of chronic stressors, even when more acute shocks occur. Additionally, policy responses to emergency and disaster situations may be most effective if they focus on immediate material needs so that an acute stressor does not become a chronic stressor.

Cooling technologies and long-term efficiency improvement of horticulture market agents: Panel data evidence from a solar-powered cold storage intervention in Nigeria

Modern cooling technologies that use renewable energy sources have been increasingly recognized as a promising tool to address a multitude of challenges emerging in progressively complex food systems in developing countries. When provided as cold storage inside horticulture markets, cooling technologies can contribute to improved quality of products and strengthened vertical linkages. Knowledge gaps about the medium- to long-term impacts of these technologies in developing countries remain, especially in Africa south of the Sahara (SSA). This study partly fills this knowledge gap by revisiting the 2021 short-term impact evaluation study (Takeshima et al. 2023) to assess the medium- to longer term impacts of interventions in northeast Nigeria in which 7 small solar-powered cold storages were installed across 7 horticulture markets. Combinations of difference-in-difference and variants of propensity score-based methods suggest that using cold storage significantly increased horticulture sales volumes and revenues of market agents. Using cold storage also reduced the share of food loss and lengthened the products’ shelf-life while raising prices received by both market agents and farmers, which were associated with improved product quality, expanded value-adding activities by market agents, and increased use of advance payments. We find no evidence of negative spillover effects inside horticulture markets. Observed effects are driven by the technical improvements that raise the efficiency of the use of purchased raw commodities, enabled by cold storage, based on modified efficiency analyses. At the same time, the efficiency of cold storage use remains low despite some improvement over time, and scopes exist to enhance this efficiency.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: January 2026

Figures on: Cereals and Flour, Lentils, Rice, and Pigeon Peas, Vegetables, Meat and Animal Products, Oilseeds, Cooking Oil, Sugar, and Fava Beans, Seeds, Fertilizers, Diesel and Petrol, Exchange Rates, Labor wages, and Market Actors’ Perceptions,

The state of food security and nutrition in Myanmar, 2021-2025: Findings from nine rounds of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey

Persistent Hunger: Extreme hunger continued to affect nearly 3.5 percent of households in late 2025. Poor Adult Diet Quality: Over a quarter of adults (27.1 percent) lack adequate dietary diversity. Women’s diet quality has worsened faster than men’s over the past three years. Deteriorating diets of young children: Over 36.5 percent of 6-23 months and 24.3 percent of 6-59 months old children are without an adequately diverse diet, significantly higher than in previous years. Multiple Factors Affecting Risk & Resilience: Low assets, conflict, and high food prices drive insecurity; remittances reduce food-related risks. This working paper explores the state of food security and nutrition in Myanmar using nine rounds of nationally representative household panel data collected from December 2021 to October 2025. Overall, the state of food security and nutrition has deteriorated in Myanmar from 2021-2025. Nearly 3.5 percent of households were in moderate to severe hunger in July-October 2025, with low asset households disproportionately affected. Households with a low Food Consumption Score increased from 9.4 percent in December 2021-February 2022 to 14.2 percent in August-November 2023 and remained high at 16.2 percent in July-October 2025. Inadequate diet diversity among adults rose from 20.5 percent to 27.1 percent between December 2021-February 2022 and July-October 2025. Women saw a faster decline in diet quality during this time (8.7 percentage points increase in poor diet quality compared to 3.9 percentage points for men). Decreases in diet quality among adults were driven by lower consumption of animal sourced food. In the latest round of survey, children with poor diet quality increased compared to previous rounds – currently in 2025, 36.5 percent of 6-23 months and 24.3 percent of 6-59 months children are without an adequately diverse diet compared to 30.7 percent and 21.3 percent, respectively, in 2024. Similarly, 42.9 percent of children aged 6-23 months in Myanmar do not meet the Minimum Acceptable Diet (MAD), a composite indicator of meal frequency and dietary diversity, indicating widespread inadequacy in infant and young child feeding. Regression analysis reveals low income and limited assets to be important risk factors for food security and adequate diet quality. Wage workers and low wage communities were particularly vulnerable. Rising food prices, conflict and physical insecurity also increase the likelihood of poor diet quality. Receiving remittances was a source of resilience; remittance-receiving households were less likely to experience hunger or poor dietary diversity at the household, adult, and child level. To avert a full-blown nutrition crisis in Myanmar, effective multisectoral steps are required to protect nutritionally vulnerable populations. Expanded implementation of nutrition- and gender-sensitive social protection programs, including maternal and child cash transfers, particularly to vulnerable groups, is needed. Further, given the importance of remittances as an effective coping mechanism, supporting migration and the flow of remittances would help to improve the welfare of the Myanmar population.

Evidence-Led Solutions for Ethiopia’s Rural Transformation Challenges – Ethiopia Policy Innovation Hub – Launch and Policy Dialogue

Conceptualizing and measuring dimensions of tenure security: Gendered analysis from Malawi, Bangladesh, and Nepal

Women’s property rights and tenure security are recognized as critical for development policy and practice. Yet there is no consensus on how to conceptualize or measure these concepts. In this paper, we explore the relationships between perceived tenure security, as reported by survey respondents, with documentation and the bundle of rights that are often used to define property ownership. We use data from the pilot of the Women’s Empowerment Metrics for National Statistics (WEMNS) in Malawi, Nepal, and Bangladesh on both agricultural land and housing. The land rights module was designed to match indicators being collected to support the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Similar questions were asked regarding the dwelling. Regression results find few associations between perceived tenure security and property rights (holding individual or sole land rights, having your name on a document, and holding rights to sell and bequeath). We thus use Sankey diagrams to visualize these relationships. In Malawi, two-thirds of those without documents, both men and women, are tenure secure. In Bangladesh, over half of the respondents are landless and thus do not have tenure security. Two-thirds of Bangladeshi women respondents in landed households report that they are tenure secure, in spite of not having their own names on the documents. In Nepal, we find a high level of both property ownership (90 percent) and tenure security (80 percent). The patterns differ across contexts and between land and housing. The results confirm that the documentation of rights and having sole or joint rights are important but should not be conflated with tenure security.

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, February 2026

Average retail prices of maize recovered from a January slump before returning to a longer-term trend of marginal decline. Retail price changes were driven by changes in the cost of imported maize. Imports dominated cross-border trade in maize despite some strong but localized informal exports to Zambia and Tanzania.

Crop diversification and nutritional resilience amid conflicts: Evidence from farmers in Myanmar

Resilient food and nutrition systems that support dietary diversity are central to improving welfare outcomes and fostering the formation of human capital, with lasting implications for socioeconomic development. Historically, while smallholders in developing countries have accessed food both from diversified farms or kitchen gardens, markets have increasingly become the more dominant source of diet diversity as agrifood systems continue their transformation. Yet little is known regarding how intensifying conflicts and social instability affect these linkages between agrifood systems and households’ dietary diversity. Addressing this knowledge gap is particularly relevant for countries like Myanmar, which is characterized not only by escalating conflicts in recent years but also by relatively lower levels of overall crop diversification and dietary diversity at the national level compared to many other countries in East and Southeast Asia. By using unique panel datasets from Myanmar that cover significant spatiotemporal variation in conflict intensity and addressing the potential endogeneity of crop diversification, we provide new evidence on the resilience of household dietary diversity in conflict-affected settings. We find that increased incidence of violent events at township levels (a proxy for conflict intensity) significantly lowers household dietary diversity during the post-monsoon season, particularly the diversity derived from purchased food items. These adverse effects are relatively more pronounced for healthier food items, such as pulses/legumes/nuts and vegetables/leaves. However, the negative impacts of conflicts on dietary diversity in the post-monsoon season are significantly mitigated by greater diversity in food crop production for farm households during the preceding monsoon season. Results are robust across different measurements of crop diversification and violent events. These findings suggest that in conflict-prone developing countries like Myanmar, household-level crop diversification remains an important strategy for farmers to safeguard household dietary diversity.

Building resilient farmer producer organizations: Driving inclusive and sustainable rural transformation through collective strength

Farmer Producer Organizations (FPOs) are increasingly recognized as engines of inclusive agricultural growth. By enabling small and marginal farmers to aggregate produce, access inputs, and improve bargaining power, FPOs hold the promise of transforming rural economies. Yet, many continue to struggle with weak governance structures, limited managerial capacity, and challenges in accessing markets and finance. To unlock their true potential, FPOs need systematic capacity-building. Recognizing this, the Department of Agriculture and Farmers’ Empowerment (DA&FE), Government of Odisha, in collaboration with IFPRI, organized state-level trainings to strengthen FPOs across the state. Over three days, 130 representatives, including board members, chief executive officers (CEOs), and staff from 38 FPOs covering all districts, participated in three batches. The training was designed not only to impart technical knowledge but also to create a platform for peer learning, reflection, and problem-solving. The overarching goal was clear: move FPOs from scheme-driven entities to self-sustaining, market-ready businesses.

The making of a non-parametric multi-shock index (MSI)

Households in low- and middle-income countries increasingly face overlapping economic, climatic, health, and conflict-related shocks that jointly erode welfare and food security. Yet many empirical and operational tools still measure shocks one at a time or aggregate them using ad hoc rules that assume equal severity and linear effects. This paper proposes a non-parametric multi-shock index (MSI) that summarizes household exposure to multiple shocks using an assumption-light, data-driven approach. The MSI construction proceeds in two steps: (i) shocks are empirically filtered based on their observed negative association with food security outcomes (anchored to the Food Consumption Score), and (ii) retained shocks are aggregated using alternative weighting schemes, including unweighted, population-weighted, and prevalence-weighted variants. We validate the MSI using multiple food security measures—Food Consumption Score (FCS), Reduced Coping Strategy Index (rCSI), Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES), and Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS). An application using FAO’s Data in Emergencies (DIEM) household survey for Nigeria illustrates the approach and shows that cumulative exposure—especially systemic and compound exposure—is strongly associated with deteriorating food security outcomes. Among tested variants, the prevalence-weighted MSI provides the clearest discriminatory power and distributional sensitivity, supporting its use for targeting, monitoring, and shock-responsive programming (FAO, 2016; Maxwell et al., 2014; World Bank, 2018).

Evidence of the multifunctional performance of the Akole Landscape in Maharashtra, India

This report presents evidence on the multifunctional performance of the Akole landscape in Ahmednagar district, Maharashtra, India, located in the ecologically significant Western Ghats. Drawing on assessments conducted between 2022 and 2024, the study evaluates agronomic, economic, environmental, and social dimensions to understand landscape-level sustainability and resilience. Akole, situated in the Sahyadri ranges, is predominantly inhabited by tribal and rural communities dependent on agriculture and forest resources. Despite its rich biodiversity and traditional knowledge systems, the landscape faces mounting pressures from soil erosion, declining water retention, deforestation, monocropping, excessive tillage, and high fertilizer use. Increasing climatic variability—marked by erratic rainfall, droughts, and pest outbreaks—further exacerbates vulnerability. Limited livelihood diversification, high poverty levels, and malnutrition intensify socio-economic risks, while critical data gaps persist, particularly in assessing human health and well-being. The report identifies key bottlenecks and synthesizes available data to evaluate early outcomes of targeted nature-positive and agroecological interventions. It advocates a transition from production-centric agriculture to a Multifunctional Landscape approach that integrates diversified livelihoods, sustainable resource management, and equity. Such a shift is essential to enhance long-term resilience, ecological integrity, and economic sustainability under changing climatic conditions.

Barriers and opportunities for youth in northern Nigeria’s agrifood value chains: Findings from qualitative research

In Africa, the population of youth ages 15–35 is expected to exceed 100 million by 2030, underscoring the need for the inclusion of youth in the design of programs and policies that promote sustainable livelihoods (International Labour Organization [ILO], 2017). Moreover, half of the youth population will be young women, emphasizing the need for gender-sensitive approaches. While many rural African youth are involved in various nodes of agricultural value chains (AVCs), far fewer—particularly young women—have access to dignified and fulfilling work. Many of the barriers that youth face in fully participating in the agricultural sector are reinforced by gender norms. Addressing the barriers to dignified and fulfilling work can help transform AVCs to be more inclusive of youth and ensure both young women and young men have access to improved livelihood opportunities. Considering the great potential of African youth for inclusive growth, in 2018, the Mastercard Foundation launched its Young Africa Works Strategy in nine countries, including Nigeria. The objective of the strategy is to increase access to dignified and fulfilling work opportunities for African youth, particularly young women (Mastercard Foundation, 2025b; Wallace, Lindsay, 2020). This report presents findings from a qualitative research study on the barriers and opportunities experienced by young women and young men who participate in key AVCs in northern Nigeria. This study is especially important given that many who reside in the region are somehow involved in agriculture and that youths’ livelihood experiences may be influenced by religious and gender norms, as well as the ongoing conflict. We investigate youth participation in key AVCs, their perceptions of dignified and fulfilling work, facilitators and constraints to their participation in AVCs, with an emphasis on gender norms, and their experiences with financial services. To investigate these topics, we conducted semi-structured interviews (SSIs) and sex-segregated focus group discussions (FGDs) with young women and young men. We also interviewed non-youth adults (those ages 35 and older), including value chain actors, financial service providers, and frontline program staff using key informant interviews (KIIs), and conducted community profiles (group interviews with community leaders) to gain a holistic perspective on the experiences of youth in AVCs. While our study emphasizes the opportunities and challenges faced by youth, it relies on perspectives from a diverse range of youth and non-youth adults to provide comprehensive insights into the context in which youth live and work. All participants were recruited by liaising with local community leaders, except for program staff, who were recruited with support from project partners, and financial service providers, who were recruited by field team members scouting banks in the study area. The qualitative methods used for this study do not allow for generalizable, population-level results; rather, they provide rich insights into the “how” and “why” behind various experiences, perspectives, and opinions underpinning youths’ livelihood opportunities. In other words, the findings presented in this report offer insights into the processes that underlie youths’ experiences with dignified and fulfilling work, particularly regarding their participation in AVCs. Unsurprisingly, young women and young men participate in processing and marketing in different ways, which is often reinforced by gender and religious norms. For instance, young women are discouraged from working outside the home and are largely confined to home-based processing, where they can be monitored and remain separated from unrelated men. Such concerns may limit the ability of young women to participate in AVCs in more public roles, such as selling goods in the town market. Moreover, young women’s family members, either her husband or parents, are often responsible for enforcing these norms. Women of all ages are responsible for housework and childcare, which limits them from pursuing income-generating activities. However, some young women are able to circumvent these restrictive norms. Non-Muslim women are not subject to the same religious gender norms, internally displaced young women are able to engage in a wider range of economic activities, some young women violate gender norms despite criticism, and others participate in AVC activities through others, such as by using hired labor. Young men may also participate in some aspects of processing, particularly when it involves mechanization, as using equipment is considered a man’s domain. As for marketing, young men predominantly sell raw agricultural products in bulk. Young women typically purchase raw goods from men and process them into various food products for home-based sale. Importantly, the findings presented in this report inform potential solutions to mitigate the constraints faced by youth participating in AVCs, including but not limited to the specific constraints imposed by gender norms. We discuss gender-transformative approaches, such as household and community dialogues, to challenge norms that restrict the ability of young women to pursue livelihood opportunities. We also highlight several promising approaches that can be paired with gender-transformative approaches. The development of systematized cottage industries may facilitate young women’s entrance into AVCs in a gender-responsive way (meaning in a way that works with existing gender norms). Stronger mentorship programs and financial services that are responsive to youth needs may also bolster young women’s and men’s participation in AVCs in northern Nigeria.

Mechanizing agriculture in Bangladesh: Trends, challenges, and policy priorities

Agricultural mechanization has become a cornerstone of rural transformation in Bangladesh (Zhang et al. 2014). Since the 1980s, the country has made significant strides in mechanizing various stages of agricultural production, from land preparation to harvesting (Mottaleb, Krupnik, and Erenstein 2016; Rahman et al. 2021). As in India and other neighboring countries, both informal custom-hiring businesses and government support have enabled the widespread use of agricultural machinery in Bangladesh (Biggs and Justice 2015). Mechanization has helped address growing labor shortages, increase labor productivity and input-use efficiency, and raise farmers’ incomes (Islam 2021; Mandal 2017).

What determines a farmer’s adoption of agricultural machinery: Assessing demographic factors and asset ownership of smallholder farmers in Bangladesh

Agricultural mechanization provides a pathway to support farmers by reducing labor dependency, increasing efficiency, and improving the timeliness of agricultural operations. This enables smallholder farming communities to apply multiple cropping patterns between seasons, thereby improving their overall livelihoods (Amponsah et al. 2025; Gathala et al. 2022 Paudel et al. 2019; Chaudhary et al. 2023). In South Asian countries, especially Bangladesh, mechanization has historically been lower than in other regional nations. However, over the past 2 decades, there has been a notable increase in mechanization, as demonstrated by the substantial growth in the use of mechanical power for farming activities (Bakhtiar et al. 2025; Brown et al. 2025; Hossen et al. 2020). Understanding this trend and its implications is essential due to the complexities of mechanization adoption in Bangladesh. As the country’s population grows, expanding agricultural mechanization will be crucial to efficiently meet rising food demand.

Impact of climate change on cost and cost efficiency of solar irrigation in Sub‐Saharan Africa

Irrigation is widely recognized as a promising strategy for enhancing agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa. To support its expansion, solar-powered irrigation systems are increasingly promoted as a sustainable alternative. However, unlike fossil fuel-based systems, the performance of solar irrigation is more sensitive to climate variability and change. This study assesses the impact of climate change on the cost and cost efficiency of stand-alone solar irrigation systems across Sub-Saharan Africa, using 15 CMIP6 climate scenarios. Our findings indicate that climate change is likely to increase investment costs and reduce the cost efficiency of solar irrigation systems compared to diesel-powered alternatives in most countries and agricultural areas of the region. Nevertheless, the expected decline in cost performance of solar irrigation systems is moderate and is likely to be offset by continued reductions in solar panel prices.

Addressing conflict and weather shocks in agrifood value chains: Policy preferences of Nigerian maize wholesalers

Resilient futures: Acknowledging the shared challenges of early career food system researchers in uncertain times

Transforming food systems to deliver sustainable, equitable, and nutritious outcomes requires confronting profound global challenges, from climate change and biodiversity loss to widening inequities and persistent malnutrition. Early career researchers (ECRs), who make up a large proportion of the research workforce, hold unique potential to drive this transformation through fresh perspectives, systems thinking, and transdisciplinary collaboration. Yet they also face distinct barriers: precarious employment, limited funding, and institutional structures that privilege dominant knowledge systems, while undervaluing Indigenous and community-centred approaches. For many, particularly in resource-constrained or Indigenous contexts, these professional pressures are compounded by structural inequities, colonial legacies, and personal responsibilities, amplifying the emotional burden of engaging with such complex challenges. This paper explores strategies to empower ECRs to navigate food systems research without becoming overwhelmed. We highlight the importance of adaptability, mentorship, and building supportive networks, alongside recognition of Indigenous knowledge systems and the contextual realities shaping food systems across geographies. Collaboration and co-production emerge as critical pathways for innovation, trust-building, and collective action, while diverse outputs beyond peer-reviewed publications are essential to translate research into meaningful policy and practice. By embracing persistence, equity, and shared responsibility, ECRs can position themselves not as isolated individuals but as key actors in a global movement for resilient and just food systems. Balancing realism with optimism, we reaffirm the transformative potential of ECRs, and call on institutions, funders, and senior researchers to establish structures that enable them to thrive as changemakers in pursuit of a sustainable food future.

Estimating the number of people eating biofortified foods on-farm and from markets: A detailed methodology and tool

Background Biofortification is a cost-effective and scalable approach to reduce micronutrient deficiencies. Currently there is scant data detailing the number (reach) and proportion (coverage) of individuals consuming biofortified foods, which is a key limitation for policymakers. Objective Develop a method to estimate the reach and coverage of biofortified foods using primary and secondary data sources. Methods We used data from 2023 to estimate the reach and coverage of zinc biofortified rice in Bangladesh and wheat in Pakistan, and vitamin A maize and cassava in Nigeria. Our calculation is divided into 5 phases: 1) seed availability, 2) agricultural production, 3) on-farm consumption, 4) off-farm consumption, and 5) overall national level reach and coverage. Phase 4 includes two consumption scenarios: full replacement and half replacement, where biofortified foods respectively account for 100% or 50% of the per capita consumption. Results In 2023, approximately 13 to 16 million people (8-9% of the population) consumed biofortified rice in Bangladesh. In Pakistan, between 97 to 173 million people consumed biofortified wheat (39-70% of the population). In Nigeria, biofortified maize was consumed by 42 to 66 million people (18-29% of the population) and biofortified cassava by 25 to 38 million people (11-17% of the population). Conclusions Our method estimates on-farm and off-farm reach and the reach/coverage of biofortified foods with visible and invisible traits. Because there is insufficient primary or secondary data describing the intake of biofortified foods, we estimated a range for off-farm reach. We estimate that in 2023, between 177 and 293 million people consumed the four biofortified crops explored in this analysis. This approach can be used to estimate the reach and coverage of other biofortified crops in other countries. More information about the consumption of these foods is needed to improve the accuracy of national reach and coverage estimates.

The rapid global rise of agricultural drones: Evidence, drivers, impacts and an agenda for future research

Implications of food trade policy for domestic and international food price volatility

This article investigates the impact of food trade policies on domestic and international price volatility, focusing on rice and wheat markets. It posits that policymakers aim to minimize the political costs associated with changing domestic prices and those associated with deviating from political-economy equilibria. The study uses price data, adjusted to reflect trade costs, to estimate an Error Correction Model that identifies key policy response parameters. The findings suggest that systematic, short-run protection changes designed to insulate against changes in world prices reduce shocks to domestic prices but exacerbate world price volatility. However, idiosyncratic, national shocks to protection rates—such as those due to national weather shocks—increase domestic price volatility relative to the amplified volatility of world prices. Our findings challenge the conventional view of price insulation as a zero-sum game, suggesting it is a negative-sum game that increases domestic price volatility for almost all countries, creating opportunities for policy reforms to lower costs and reduce price volatility.

Diets, fruit and vegetable intake, and nutritional status in Sri Lanka: A scoping review

Suboptimal diets, including low fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake, are major contributors to malnutrition and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Sri Lanka. Understanding dietary patterns is essential for addressing these challenges. This scoping review synthesizes the literature on diet, F&V intake, and nutritional status across different population groups in Sri Lanka. Searches were conducted in PubMed in October 2023. In total, 30 publications on diet, 13 on F&V intake, and 26 on nutritional status met the inclusion criteria. Sri Lankan diets were found to be rice-dominant with limited variety of nutrient-dense foods such as animal-source foods (ASF) and F&V. Trends in nutritional status varied across life stages. Among children < 5, undernutrition was prevalent, with stunting affecting 14%–21%, wasting 10%–15%, and underweight 17%–21%. Anemia was found in 8%–15% of children < 5 and 25%–30% of pregnant women. Micronutrient deficiencies, particularly vitamin D, iron, and zinc, affected more than one-third of pregnant women. In adults, over one-third were overweight/obese, 8%–12% had diabetes, and 20%–25% had hypertension. Diet, F&V intake and nutrition outcomes also differed by socioeconomic, demographic, and geographic characteristics, with estate sector residents, Indian Tamil populations, and low-income groups disproportionately affected by poor diet quality, low F&V intake, insufficient nutrient intake and malnutrition, while women (vs. men) and urban (vs. rural/estate) residents exhibited higher prevalence of overweight/obesity and NCDs. This review revealed evidence gaps such as the lack of recent dietary intake data based on individual quantitative dietary assessments that limit understanding of current diet adequacy. Additionally, only one impact evaluation designed to improve diet was identified. More research is needed to understand how to effectively improve diet including increasing intake of F&V and ASF in Sri Lanka.

Climate change‐driven shifts in staple crop structure: Evidence from northern China

Spatially explicit global assessment of cropland greenhouse gas emissions circa 2020

Spatially explicit cropland greenhouse gas emission data are essential for identifying emission hotspots and guiding sustainable mitigation strategies. Here we develop high-resolution (5 arcmin) global maps of cropland emissions across 46 crop classes in 2020 by integrating sectoral datasets on synthetic fertilizer, manure, crop residue, in-field burning, rice cultivation and cultivated drained peatlands. Global croplands emitted 2.5 (95% CI 2.4–2.7) GtCO2e yr−1, with drained peatlands (35%), rice paddies (35%) and synthetic fertilizer (23%) as the primary contributors. Four crops—rice, maize, oil palm and wheat—accounted for 67% of total emissions. Emission areal intensities averaged 2 MgCO2e ha−1 globally, with higher intensities in Asia and Europe, where croplands also achieved high caloric productivity. Spatial correlations between emission intensity and production efficiency reveal geographic trade-offs between mitigation potential and food production. The resulting dataset establishes a unified global framework for a spatially explicit assessment of agricultural emissions and efficiency.

Time is money: Spatially explicit system analysis for rice-wheat cropping systems of Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains, India

CONTEXT: Late sowing of wheat is a major reason for poor yields in eastern India (Bihar and Eastern Uttar Pradesh) due to a shorter growing period, and risk of terminal heat stress. Despite big losses and widespread awareness, late sowing of wheat is widely prevalent in the region. Why? Most wheat is sown after harvesting monsoon rice from the same plot. Later rice harvests interfere with timely wheat sowing. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study is to analyse the interdependence between the rice and wheat to optimize crop establishment dates at the cropping systems level for increasing yields, revenues and mitigating risks. METHODS: We collected production practices data from 5021 plots sequentially cultivated with rice and wheat in the State of Bihar and the eastern districts of Uttar Pradesh. We use this unique data to implement a multivariate Bayesian geo-additive model and risk-return optimization framework to determine rice and wheat sowing dates that give the highest risk-adjusted economic gains to farmers. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: Early transplanting of rice and early sowing of wheat have spatially differentiated yield, revenue, and risk (minimal variance) benefits. We find that early transplanting of rice (between June 20 and July 20) and wheat (between November 1 and November 15) leads to a revenue gain of 5000–10,000 Rs ha−1 (∼62.5–125 US$ ha−1) at minimal risk and no revenue trade-offs (non-negative correlation). Conversely, late transplanting of rice has negative effects on correlation of rice and wheat yields therefore leading to a yield and revenue tradeoff. Evidence of spatially differentiated dependence between rice and wheat yield systems implies that analysing these crops separately may be suboptimal. SIGNIFICANCE: Spatial intelligence on cropping system inter-dependence can help farmers select the appropriate crop management practices (e.g., variety duration, irrigation, fertilizer application) and adjust their sowing dates based on local conditions and constraints, thereby optimizing yields and incomes in the rice-wheat system. It can also help policy makers in implementing spatially differentiated entry points for increasing yields and farm incomes at minimum risks.

When the wind blows: Agricultural fire exposure, parental investment, and long-term outcomes

Armed conflict, community-based cash transfers, and social cohesion: Evidence from a randomized intervention in Ethiopia

Gender attitudes in agriculture and positivity bias: A survey experiment in four countries in sub-Saharan Africa

Community-driven development, infrastructure, and public services: Overview of the evidence

Community-driven development (CDD) reliably delivers locally prioritized public infrastructure and services, often at a lower cost and with less leakage than traditional government-managed projects, and it has proven particularly effective in challenging contexts affected by institutional fragility, conflict, and violence. CDD effectively supports communities in prioritizing projects, producing a wide range of positive local outcomes. Yet, the diversity of choices makes generalizing the efficacy of CDD across settings difficult, highlighting the need for more research and better approaches to generating evidence and identifying impact. Emerging evidence suggests that infrastructure built by communities through CDD programs often endures longer than development projects that employ more traditional “top-down” approaches, with positive effects persisting for a decade or more.

Climate change can generate enemy‐free space for crop‐feeding herbivores

Crop-feeding herbivores reduce the world’s food output by approximately 20% and climate change (CC) is bound to deepen those losses. Endemic or introduced consumer organisms (i.e., biological control agents) naturally regulate herbivore populations and secure a quarter of crop yields, but are exceptionally susceptible to CC-related disturbances. Here, we use niche modeling for 14 globally-important herbivores (or pests) to forecast how richness of the associated biological control agents of each pest—as a proxy of service strength—may alter under a CC-driven range expansion. Results show that 57%–100% of pests are bound to lose parasitoid and predator associates. The cassava mealybug Phenacoccus manihoti may experience a 27% decline in parasitoid pressure, whereas cosmopolitan pests of cereal and horticultural crops benefit from 6% to 7% drops in predator pressure. Such ‘enemy release’ can possibly exacerbate pest-induced yield losses and threaten future harvests. Ant-pest associations change in both directions, implying that pests may either face strengthened or weakened biological control. For pests spreading towards or within food-deficit regions in the equatorial belt, parasitoid declines and increases in ant pressure are most pronounced. By exposing the fragility of biodiversity-based ecological safeguards in farmland, our work calls for urgent, integrative, and nature-friendly solutions to uphold food security under environmental change.

Community-driven development, governance, and collective action: Overview of the evidence

As foreign aid declines, which interventions should we prioritize? Advocates of community-driven development (CDD) have long argued that we should ask this question of the communities and people whom aid is meant to serve. CDD provides village-level grants and facilitation that support communities in choosing and implementing the projects they consider local priorities, including basic health and education services, local infrastructure, income-generating activities, or other community priorities. In recent years, a growing body of evidence has begun to document and assess the effects of this approach. This brief and a companion brief1 synthesize findings from a range of rigorous evaluations to describe what we know about the multidimensional impacts of CDD in low- and middle-income contexts and highlight gaps that should be addressed in future research. Here, we focus on the effects of CDD on governance and collective action.

Promoting regional income equity under structural transformation and climate change: An economywide analysis for Senegal

The energy sector in Nepal: Economic potential and financial challenges of renewable energy transition

Nepal’s commitment to harness its vast renewable potential under the Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0) presents a transformative opportunity with economic and environmental benefits. It aims to capitalize on domestic hydropower and solar potential to ensure energy security, achieve higher economic growth, and reduce reliance on traditional biomass and petroleum imports. In this brief, we utilize IFPRI’s dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model calibrated to the 2022 Nepal’s Social Accounting Matrix to measure the economic benefits of achieving the NDC 3.0 electricity capacity targets through a diversified renewable mix. Two scenarios were analyzed: a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario and an ambitious renewable expansion scenario aligned with NDC 3.0 goals but with accelerated emphasis on solar power, modeled at 15,000 MW from solar and other renewables, with the remainder from hydroelectricity. Integrating solar with hydropower emerges as a highly promising scenario for Nepal’s energy landscape, leveraging the country’s vast solar potential while building resilience against climate-related risks to hydroelectricity. This integrated approach represents a strategic and effective pathway toward achieving Net-zero. Model results indicate that such renewable transition generates substantial macroeconomic and welfare benefits. Achieving the NDC 3.0 aligned targets would expand the Nepal’s economy by 2.2% by 2035 over the BAU scenario, generating over 82,000 new jobs, and lifting more than 36,000 people from poverty. Although renewable energy transition presents a huge economic opportunity, its benefits hinges on the country’s ability to secure financing, implement policy reforms, and ensure equitable distribution. Without strategic financial planning and coordinated policy reforms, Nepal risks replacing existing energy dependencies with new vulnerabilities even as it pursues long-term sustainability.

Agriculture in Nepal’s NDC 3.0: Economy-wide impacts on Nepal’s economy

Nepal’s agriculture sector, central to food security, and rural employment and livelihoods faces mounting pressures from climate change, land degradation, and declining productivity. The Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0) introduces a set of targeted agricultural interventions designed to enhance climate resilience while improving productivity and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This policy brief assesses the economy-wide implications of achieving these agricultural targets using IFPRI’s dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model calibrated to 2022 Nepal’s Social Accounting Matrix. Two scenarios are evaluated: a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario and an NDC 3.0 scenario reflecting successful implementation of interventions such as climate-smart agriculture, improved cattle shed management, soil organic matter enhancement, irrigation expansion, and post-harvest loss reduction. Model results indicate substantial economic and welfare gains: agricultural GDP increases by 2.85 percent annually through 2035, national GDP growth rises by 0.94 percentage points per year, and approximately 317,400 individuals are lifted above the $2.15/day poverty line. Among all interventions, post-harvest loss reduction contributes the most, followed by improved livestock management. While NDC-aligned agricultural interventions offer substantial economic potential, their success depends on addressing significant fiscal, institutional, and implementation challenges. Without strengthened coordination, adequate financing, and improved extension capacity, Nepal risks falling short of the productivity and resilience gains envisioned under NDC 3.0.