Christopher L. Delgado, Nikolas Wada, Mark W. Rosegrant, Siet Meijer, and Mahfuzuddin Ahmed 226 pages / 2003 / ISBN 0-89629-725-X Jointly published by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and WorldFish Center

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Using a state-of-the-art computer model of global supply and demand for food and feed commodities, this book projects the likely changes in the fisheries sector over the next two decades. As prices for most food commodities fall, fish prices are expected to rise, reflecting demand for fish that outpaces the ability of the world to supply it. The model shows that developing countries will consume and produce a much greater share of the world’s fish in the future, and trade in fisheries commodities will also increase. The authors show the causes and implications of these and other changes, and argue for specific actions and policies that can improve outcomes for the poor and for the environment.

“This analysis of world fish markets to 2020 is the first of its kind that is firmly rooted in modeling of supply and demand based on economic theory, taking into account economic and technological as well as biological variables, and also analyzing implications for equity as well as international trade under alternative scenarios.This book is bound to become a seminal contribution in this field.”

-- Trond Bjorndal, professor of Fisheries Economics, Centre for Fisheries Economics, Bergen and University of Portsmouth

“We have all heard about the crisis in fisheries: dwindling catches, swordfishermen out of work, and the environ- mental questions that are dimming hopes for aquaculture. Here, five experts apply thoughtful scenario-building and solid economic analysis to construct a plausible picture of what this vital industry will look like in 2020.Their work should command the serious attention of policymakers—in the developing world as in the North.”

-- Donald Kennedy, editor-in-chief, Science

“Previous IFPRI reports have been uniquely important in helping decisionmakers understand global agriculture. adds to this tradition by providing a comprehensive, quantitative, and readable account of both wild-caught and farmed fish.With its careful assessment of supply, demand, prices, and policy, this volume is must reading for anyone serious about the future of fish, fishing, and the environment.”

-- Roz Naylor, senior fellow, Center for Environmental Science and Policy, Stanford University

Entire Book

Book Chapters:

Table of Contents; Lists of Tables, Figures, and Boxes; Foreword, Acknowledgements
(PDF 54K)

Chapter 1 - Introduction

(PDF 60K)

Chapter 2 - Historical Trends and Current Patterns of Fisheries Production

(PDF 109K)

Chapter 3 - Demand for Fish as Food and Feed Through the 1990s

(PDF 120K)

Chapter 4 - Projections to 2020 Under Different Scenarios

(PDF 98K)

Chapter 5 - Interactions Between Fisheries and the Natural Environment

(PDF 92K)

Chapter 6 - Implications for Fisheries Technology Needs and Prospects

(PDF 127K)

Chapter 7 - Rapidly Growing Fisheries Trade and its Impacts

(PDF 150K)

Chapter 8 - Conclusions

(PDF 70K)

Appendix A: Regional Classification of Countries

(PDF 34K)

Appendix B: Commodity Groups

(PDF 36K)

Appendix C: Commodity Aggregation and Balancing Procedure

(PDF 30K)

Appendix D: Handling Fisheries Trade Data in IMPACT

(PDF 42K)

Appendix E: Supplementary Tables

(PDF 80K)

Appendix F: Acronyms and Glossary

(PDF 41K)

Bibliography

(PDF 70K)

Index

(PDF 43K)

Contributors

(PDF 29K)