Global Food Projections to 2020:
Emerging Trends and Alternative Futures

China and India

• In the next 23 years, worldwide demand for meat is expected to rise by 57%; China alone will account for more than 40% if this increase.
• Developing countries in Asia will account for half of the predicted increase world demand for cereals by 2020, with China alone accounting for one-fourth.
• Though India and China are home to one-third of the globe's people, expected increases in imports of grain and meat by their burgeoning populations will not threaten the global food supply, even if food production in the two countries is much lower than expected.
• If current trends and policies continue, the number of China's malnourished children will fall over 50% by 2020. Malnutrition in India will improve at a slower rate, and India will remain home to 1/3 of all malnourished children in the developing world in 2020.
• Attempts by China and India to reduce their dependency on the import of foreign crops, including the use of high import tariffs and subsidies to domestic farmers, could increase the number of malnourished children in the region by 2020.

• An estimated 10% of China's children under 5 are underweight, 3% suffer from wasting and 17% from stunting. In India, more than 50% are underweight and suffer from severe to moderate stunting; 18% suffer from wasting. (UNICEF State of the World's Children 2001)
• The average income per capita is $780 in China and $450 in India. (UNICEF State of the World's Children 2001)
• From 1990-1999, UNICEF estimates 19% of China's population and 44% of India's population lived on less than a dollar a day. (UNICEF State of the World's Children 2001)
• In 1998-2000, India produced 2,293 kilograms and China produced 4,879 kilograms of cereals per hectare of arable land. The world average is 2,067 kilograms/hectare. (World Bank World Development Indicators 2001)