Global Food Projections to 2020:
Emerging Trends and Alternative Futures

Sub-Saharan Africa

• If current trends continue, Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region in the world where child malnutrition will rise the next 20 years. IFPRI projects an increase of 6.6 million or 20% in the number of malnourished children from 1997 to 2020.
• With extra investments (approximately $76-$183 billion more than expected) in roads, irrigation, clean water, education and agricultural research and dramatic changes in policies to promote rapid economic growth and higher crop yields, child malnutrition could fall by one-third by from 1997 to 2020.
• Between 1967 and 1997 cereal production in Sub-Saharan Africa more than doubled. However, due to rapid population growth, about 2.8% annually, the amount of cereal produced per capita actually dropped slightly.
• Despite widespread malnutrition, cereal imports into Sub-Saharan Africa have remained low due to persistent poverty. In 1997, imports provided only 15% of Sub-Saharan Africa's total grain consumption.
• Cultivating more and more land will not solve Sub-Saharan Africa's food security problems for the long-term. Between 1967 and 1997, the region expanded cereal cultivation by 31 million hectares and roots and tubers cultivation by 8 million hectares. This rate of expansion is not sustainable; therefore, higher crop yields are needed to reduce malnutrition in Africa.
• The population of Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow from 560.9 million in 1997 to 958.6 million in 2020, a 71% increase.

• During 1998-2000, farmers in Europe produced nearly 6 times as much cereal per hectare as did farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa. (World Bank World Development Indicators 2001)
• Of children in Sub-Saharan Africa under five years old, 10% suffer from moderate or severe wasting, 31% are moderately or severely underweight, and 37% suffer from moderate or severe stunting. (UNICEF State of the World's Children 2001)
• The average annual per capita income in Sub-Saharan Africa is $513, and 39% of the population lives on less than a dollar a day. (UNICEF State of the World's Children 2000)