Global Food Projections to 2020:
Emerging Trends and Alternative Futures

Effects of Trade Liberalization

• By 2020, international trade will play an even larger role in bringing food to many regions of the world. Food imports will especially rise in developing nations that are unable to meet their cereal needs with local production. Much of the increased production and cereal exports will come from the US and Europe.
• Liberalizing trade generates global benefits. Full global trade liberalization of major agriculture commodities* would provide global benefits of $36 billion in 2020, nearly two-thirds of which would be seen in developing countries. However, though most developing countries have opened their market to agricultural products, many industrialized nations still practice protectionism.
• The United States is the nation that will gain most from free trade in agricultural goods. By liberalizing global trade in key commodities, the US could gain an additional $4.1 billion in 2020.
• Sub-Saharan Africa is the developing region of the world that would benefit most from free trade in agricultural goods. For this to happen, European nations need to remove farm subsidies. African nations too, must eliminate taxes on food production and consumption.

• According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in 2000, the European Union provided $90.2 billion in producer support, while the U.S. provided $49.0 billion in producer support. (Agricultural Policies in OECD Countries: Monitoring and Evaluation 2001)
• Developing countries account for one-quarter of all food trade. By the mid 1990's developing countries imported $100 billion in food. (Food and Agriculture Organization)
• In 1999, the world exported $544 billion worth of agricultural products, which added up to about 10% of total world merchandise trade. (World Trade Organization International Trade Statistics 2000)
• "The products of greatest interest to the least-developed countries - many agricultural products together with clothing and other labor-intensive manufactures - are among the most heavily protected in the markets of their current and potential trading partners, both developed and developing." (World Trade Organization Press Release, April 27, 2001)