International Agricultural Research for Food Security, Poverty Reduction, and the EnvironmentThe recent food crisis, combined with the energy crisis and emerging climate-change issues, threatens the livelihoods of millions of poor people as well as the economic, ecological, and political situation in many developing countries. Progress in achieving development goals (such as cutting hunger and poverty in half by 2015) has been delayed significantly; in fact, the number of food-deficient people actually increased in the past two years by at least 75 million. These challenges require multifaceted, science-based technological, economic, and political approaches.
Through its international research centers, its publicly available research, its broad network of partnerships, and its long experience in the field, the CGIAR is well-positioned to contribute to the global effort to foster food production, increase access to food, and reduce poverty and hunger in both rural and urban areas. However, the system cannot effectively address these global challenges without additional funding and improved organizational design. The latter is being addressed by an ongoing change process. The former is the focus of this paper, which examines what can be expected from a scaled-up CGIAR.
There can be no doubt about the strong role of agricultural research in concert with other development investments: numerous studies have shown that investments in agricultural research typically rank first or second in terms of returns to growth and poverty reduction, along with investments in infrastructure and education. Fortunately, there is a new and broad-based consensus that investment in agriculture and in related, research-based innovations must be accelerated. But the obvious questions are: by how much should this investment be accelerated, where should it be focused, and what can be expected from it?
This paper utilizes two different approaches to assess the impact of significantly scaling up investment in public agricultural research in developing countries in general, and in the CGIAR in particular. First, it models the potential impact of doubling research investment on agricultural (food) production and poverty reduction, and also on international food prices. It then provides a compilation of "best bets" for large-scale research investments, as identified by the CGIAR centers in a survey done for this study.
The modeling indicates that increasing investment in public agricultural research in the countries included in the model from about US$4.6 billion to US$9.3 billion during the next five years (2008-13), and doubling CGIAR investment from US$0.5 to US$1.0 billion as part of that, would increase output growth coming from research and development (R&D) from 0.53 to 1.55 percentage points. Doubling this R&D investment would also reduce $1-a-day poverty by 204 million people by 2020. This scenario assumes that expanded investment is targeted toward maximizing total agricultural output, which means allocating R&D investment more to Southeast/East Asia and South Asia than other regions. If, on the other hand, expanded agricultural research is targeted toward maximizing poverty reduction, then R&D investment should be allocated more to Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. This could increase overall agricultural output growth somewhat less (from 0.53 to 1.11 percentage points per year), but would lift about 282 million people out of poverty by 2020 (compared to 204 million in the first scenario).
A different global model (IFPRI's IMPACT model) was used to estimate the effects of accelerated R&D investment—combined with plausible increases in other development investments—on international food prices. The results suggest that when compared to the baseline scenario, a high-investment scenario could reduce the price of maize by 67 percent in 2025, wheat by 56 percent, and rice by 45 percent, while reducing unit costs of production to main farm income. Such expanded R&D investment in agriculture is critical for preventing future global food crises.
The paper also describes 14 examples of "best bets" for large-scale research investments, ranging between about US$10-150 million each over five years. They encompass the broad areas of increasing the agricultural productivity of crop and livestock systems, reducing risks, improving the nutritional quality of food, mitigating climate change and improving ecosystem resilience, enhancing germplasm exchange, and improving market information and value chains. These illustrative "best bets" include:
- Revitalizing yield growth in intensive cereal systems [estimated investment: $150 million; people reached: 3 billion];
- increasing fish production [estimated investment: US$73.5 million; people reached: 32 million];
- addressing threatening pests such as virulent wheat rust [estimated investment: US$37.5 million; people reached: 2.88 billion];
- tackling cattle diseases such as East Coast Fever [estimated investment: US$10.5 million; people reached: 32 million, with additional indirect effects on many more];
- breeding drought-resistance maize in 20 countries [estimated investment: US$100 million; people reached: 320 million, with additional indirect effects on many more];
- scaling up biofortification [estimated investment: US$125 million; people reached: up to 672 million];
- including poor forest people in climate change-mitigation opportunities [estimated investment: US$45 million; people reached: 48 million];
- enhancing yield growth in the context of climate change [estimated investment: US$127.5 million; people reached: 1.18 billion];
- combining organic and inorganic nutrients for increased crop productivity [estimated investment: US$55 million; people reached: 400 million];
- promoting the sustainable and efficient use of ground water [estimated investment: US$24 million; people reached: 261 million];
- expanding the exchange of genetic resources [estimated investment: US$15 million; people reached: global impact, with a focus in developing countries];
- promoting innovations to improve small farmer access to trade, market, and value-chain systems in six countries [estimated investment: US$10.5 million; people reached: 45 million];
- ensuring women's full participation in agricultural innovation [estimated investment: US$30 million; people reached: 200 million]; and
- reducing the adverse effects of agriculture on health and improving the health benefits of agriculture for the poor [estimated investment: US$75 million; people reached: global].
These "best bets" would reach billions of people, even before assessing synergies and adding up effects across "best bet" programs. While some of these "best bets" are currently on the desired and actual agenda of the CGIAR, the respective investments are currently far below the needed scale for optimal impact. The CGIAR is also constrained from effectively utilizing new science in biotechnology and nanotechnology for the poor, which should be included among the emerging opportunities that require scaling up of investment in the CGIAR. While most of the identified CGIAR research opportunities are characterized by large-but-slow wins, some have opportunities for large-scale, quick wins, especially institutional and policy research that leads to policy changes in the short run, such as research related to markets and to food and nutrition programs and policies.
A reformed and more efficient CGIAR will not only help increase productivity, improve the natural-resource base, and strengthen policy and institutions through its own research, but will also be better able to link with private-sector innovation and end-user oriented operations in cooperation with national agricultural research systems (NARS), which would yield high pay-offs to development investments.
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