The H5N1 form of avian influenza that has swept across Asia into parts of Europe and Africa presents an extraordinary challenge to the international community. While a strong global response to contain the disease is essential, efforts in many developing countries show that conventional approaches may not always work as there is considerable uncertainty about spread mechanism, the timing, extent and severity of a potential outbreak. Yet developing countries must make critical decisions about how to defend against a potential outbreak of AI. If an outbreak occurs, they must take action to eliminate the disease and prevent further spread. Such action will involve direct costs associated with the eradication effort, as well as indirect costs that accrue to poultry producers and infected people. The rural poor, whose livelihoods depend in large part from poultry, may disproportionately feel these costs. In light of this, a number of research questions are both under-researched and of particular relevance to poor families in developing countries. Researchers at IFPRI and the International Livestock Research Institute are spearheading a new research program to study the patterns and determinants of the spatial spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Africa and parts of Asia, the economic impact of not controlling it on different size producers, and cost-effective control options for different size producers. The research will provide an understanding of how the above may differ in the short-run and long-run depending on whether the disease is acute or endemic. The goal of this proposed project is to help governments make more informed decisions on how to control the spread of a transboundary animal disease such as HPAI while minimizing the impact of different groups, particularly the poor. Research will focus on:

• evaluating the risk of spatial transmission of AI from migratory birds and commercial trade in breeding stocks, veterinary inputs, and live animals;
• assessing the social and economic impact of the disease and its control, particularly on poor poultry producers, sellers, and consumers in the short-run/long-run and the benefit of controlling it;
• identifying cost-effective disease control measures appropriate to the scale and location of poultry producers and whether the disease is acute versus endemic;
• understanding market failures that prevent the adoption of control measures, particularly for smallholder producers. providing information of the benefits, costs, and risks of alternative mitigation measures to aid decision makers in understanding the short-run/long-run distributional implications of their decisions;
• creating a decision tool to aid policymakers in evaluating the impact of alternatives control methods on the livelihoods of small- and large-scale producers and communicating the findings to different stakeholders.