Our research focused on outlooks and scenarios provides a platform upon which decision-makers can base strategic planning and investment decisions. In particular, our analyses highlight particular opportunities that address challenges facing agriculture and the productivity of crop-livestock systems globally and in critical regions of the world.

Research based on outlooks and scenarios leads directly to an improved understanding of the drivers of global change and how these impact agricultural growth and human welfare. With our emphasis on the agricultural sector, we bring an in-depth and comprehensive perspective to the approach taken to building future scenarios for food production and the role that technology and policy can play in improving outcomes. This research complements IFPRI 2020 and other related studies such as the global assessments for the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA), Global Environmental Outlook (GEO), the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the International Assessment for Agricultural Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD), and the World Bank’s World Development Report (WDR2008).

Our current suite of scenarios covers key environmental, technological, and socioeconomic drivers of global change and how they might evolve over alternative plausible futures. These scenarios also have regionally-specific features that address the peculiarities of important global sub-regions and cover the most vulnerable populations and food systems.

Using these scenarios, we build outlooks that enable us to better understand the implications that diet change, climate change and biofuels and energy prices—among other drivers—might have on the functioning of food systems and the ability to deliver needed services. The primary tool used for outlooks in this research is the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). The IMPACT model allows us to carry out direct comparisons between technological and policy interventions that help in improving the overall value-added productivity of the agricultural sector and its ability to respond to the future challenges of providing sufficient food, feed, fiber, and fuel to meet growing global demands.

See IMPACT: Global Trends in Food Supply and Demand

IFPRI’s research agenda has included many collaborative efforts and consultations with colleagues in other institutions. The publications section details several of the outlooks this research has produced to date. In addition, the following links provide more resources on outlooks and scenarios related to agricultural production and food security:

• OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook
• FAO Global Perspective Studies Unit
• USDA Agricultural Long-term Projections
• FAPRI Agricultural Outlook
• United Nations Environment Program, Global Environment Outlook (GEO)
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
• International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development
• World Development Report 2008: Agriculture for Development