An Investment Policy Model of the Fisheries Sector in the Pacific Coral Triangle Countries

What is the challenge?

To alleviate the detrimental impacts of changing climate to the fisheries sector that harm the food security and livelihood opportunities of the coastal communities in the Pacific Region, the Environment and Production Technology Division (EPTD) of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) implemented an economic analysis study on “Future Prospects and Adaptation Strategies for the Fisheries Sector under Climate Change in the Pacific Coral Triangle Countries” in 2011-2013. Using supply-demand modeling and scenario analyses, results of the study demonstrate the substantial growth in fish demand up to 2050 in Fiji, Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu. These countries are presently fish net exporters (excluding foreign tuna catch). However in contrast to fish demand, expansion of domestic fish production is estimated to decelerate due to changes in the climate conditions as well as other constraints. The study also emphasized the high probability of most Pacific countries becoming large net fish importers if mitigation and adaptation strategies to reverse if not totally prevent the impacts of climate change will not be applied. Proposed adaptation strategies analyzed in the study include aquaculture, low-cost inshore fish aggregating device (FAD) and establishment of marine protected areas (MPA). Development of aquaculture is expected to expand fish production, consumption and trade but given the low base level of production, this strategy is not enough to meet fish demand of the growing population in the Pacific region. Furthermore, modeling exercises to estimate fish production, demand and trade are likewise applied to FAD and MPA strategies. Similarly, estimates on the levels of investments are determined to guide the policy analysts and decisionmakers on appropriate and feasible opportunities that can be applied at the country-level. Hence there is a need to transfer the technical knowledge and strengthen the skills of national experts in the three Pacific Island countries on modeling and investment policy analyses. It is anticipated that through this research the national staff from government agencies (e.g. department/ministry of fisheries, environment, climate change, development planning) in Fiji, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu will build and strengthen their skills and knowledge on economic modeling where the outputs will be utilized to develop and/or support investments and national policies on climate change adaptation strategies for the fisheries sector.

Key research questions

  • What are the current investment approaches for the fisheries sector as response to food security in Fiji, Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu?
  • What are the national development plans and policies affecting the fisheries sector in Fiji, Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu?
  • How will the impacts of climate change affect fish production, consumption and trade under climate change to 2030 and 2050 in the three Pacific Island countries?
  • How will FishPaCT, the mathematical investment programming model of Fiji, Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu, be utilized in determining the impacts of climate change to the fisheries sector?

Basic information about the activity

This research activity focuses on knowledge-and-technology transfer through the development of a computer-based model that can be used and maintained in-house in Fiji, Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu for policy analyses of investment and climate change adaptation strategies.


  • Fish-PaCT model
  • Project note
  • Technical paper describing the FishPaCT model
  • Technical paper on policy analysis of investment and adaptation strategies using the model
  • Policy brief for distribution to Pacific government (non-technical)
  • Trained researchers, policy analysts and decisionmakers

We would like to extend our appreciation to the following national government agencies and their leaders for their continued cooperation and support to IFPRI:

  • Mr. Suresh Chand, Director, Department of Fisheries, Fiji;
  • Dr. Melchoir Mataki, Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Environment, Climate Change, Disaster Management and Meteorology, Solomon Islands;
  • Mr. Andrew Prakash, Director, Ministry of Development Planning and Aid Cooperation, Solomon Islands;
  • Dr. Chris Ramofafia, Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Resources, Solomon Islands;
  • Mr. Albert A. Williams, Director, Department of Environmental Protection and Conservation, Vanuatu; and
  • Mr. William Naviti, Director, Department of Fisheries, Vanuatu


Mark W. Rosegrant, Director and Project Leader, Environment and Production Technology Division, IFPRI; email: