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discussion paper

Forecasting commodity prices using long-short-term memory neural networks

This paper applies a recurrent neural network (RNN) method to forecast cotton and oil prices. We show how these new tools from machine learning, particularly Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) models, complement traditional methods. Our results show that ma…

discussion paper

Assessing the impact of lending through Kisan Credit Cards in rural India: Evidence from Eastern India

This paper attempts to identify the determinants of access to the KCC program and empirically evaluate its impact on farmers’ use of agricultural inputs and farm household incomes in Eastern India. We have also examined whether the possession of KCC re…

discussion paper

Games for triggering collective change in natural resource management: A conceptual framework and insights from four cases from India

As resource users interact and impose externalities onto each other, institutions are needed to coordinate resource use, create trust, and provide incentives for sustainable management. Coordinated collective action can play a key role in enabling comm…

discussion paper

Crop insurance and crop productivity: Evidence from rice farmers in eastern India

The paper explores the spread of crop insurance in India and analyzes the factors affecting the demand for crop insurance. The study also assesses the impact of crop insurance on the rice yields of smallholder rice producers. Using data from a large fa…

discussion paper

Effects of public expenditures on agriculture at subnational levels on households’ welfare and economic resilience in Nigeria

Agricultural development has long been considered an important driver of overall economic development in developing countries such as Nigeria. Whether increasing public expenditures on agriculture (PEA) can directly improve broad dimensions of househol…