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discussion paper

Improving coffee productivity in Ethiopia: The impact of a coffee tree rejuvenation training program on stumping

Coffee is Ethiopia’s most important export commodity, cultivated by over 6 million smallholder farmers in the country, and accounting for about one-third of the country’s commodity exports. While coffee production has increased over the last decade, co…

discussion paper

Assessing the economic cost of depleting groundwater in Balochistan: A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier approach

Prolonged droughts and depleting groundwater resources have been a serious challenge to the economy of province of Balochistan, Pakistan. Proliferation of tube-wells incentivized by government policy interventions and continued subsidy for electric tub…

discussion paper

Impacts of COVID-19 on people’s food security: Foundations for a more resilient food system

As part of the work implemented by CGIAR on COVID-19, the COVID-19 Research Hub Working Group 4 “Address food systems’ fragility and build back better” was tasked with implementing a global assessment of the impacts of COVID-19 on food systems and thei…

discussion paper

Forecasting commodity prices using long-short-term memory neural networks

This paper applies a recurrent neural network (RNN) method to forecast cotton and oil prices. We show how these new tools from machine learning, particularly Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) models, complement traditional methods. Our results show that ma…

discussion paper

Drivers and disruptors shaping the future of agriculture and the food system in LAC: Climate change and trade tensions

Agri-food production remains vital to the economies in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Food systems are rapidly changing and are driven by income growth, (urban) population growth, shifts in dietary preferences, and agricultural productivity gro…

discussion paper

Quantification and benefits of reducing post-harvest losses: Evidence for vegetables in Senegal

This study examines on-farm post-harvest losses (PHL) for three vegetable crops (onion, tomato, and pimento) in Senegal and the potential economic benefits associated with reducing PHL for these three vegetables. Household survey data was used to quant…

discussion paper

Distributional impact of the rice tariffication policy in the Philippines

In March 2019, the government of the Philippines promulgated a bill called the Rice Tariffication Law (RTL). It has dramatically changed the policy landscape in the rice sector and generated heated debates on how it would affect food security and pover…

discussion paper

Negotiating the social contract in urban Africa: Informal food traders in Ghanaian cities

How do cities build a social contract with their diverse constituencies and foster political trust among the urban poor? This study focuses on informal traders, who constitute a major source of food security and employment in urban Africa. Centered on …

discussion paper

From bad to worse: Poverty impacts of food availability responses to weather shocks in Zambia

Since Amartya Sen’s famous work on Poverty and Famines, economists have understood that policy responses to food market shocks should be guided by changes in households’ incomes and access to food, rather than by overall food availability. Perhaps beca…

discussion paper

Patterns of regional agri-food trade in Asia

This paper analyzes the implication of economic structural change and dietary transformation on changing patterns of agri-food trade among 17 Asian development countries. Sub-regional trade in Central, South, and Southeast Asia is the focus of the pape…

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