World Science Day for Peace and Development 2022: Studying how to help vulnerable populations contend with shocks

World Science Day for Peace and Development (November 10) focuses attention on the important role of science in society—particularly in understanding how societies are contending with the challenges and threats of a world in which the frequency and severity of shocks and conflicts continues to grow.

Having worked in over a dozen developing countries, where shocks and conflicts of various kinds are common, I’ve come to appreciate the many ways in which research can contribute to building stronger and more resilient households, communities, and societies as they face disruptions from climate change and other risks.

Beyond the essential function of providing evidence of what works (and what doesn’t) in addressing the impacts of such crises, science can also help predict and in some cases even prevent them. Research plays a crucial role in identifying the key types of shocks, the most vulnerable populations, and the best ways to reach them. My recent research has focused on these questions, particularly on how income shocks and natural disasters affect households and individuals, and how governments can foster trust, peace, and social cohesion through policies responding to these problems. Here is a look at some of that work, done with colleagues at IFPRI, CGIAR, and elsewhere.

Effects of income shocks and disasters

While shocks to incomes and natural disasters can affect everyone, impacts vary across social classes, demographic groups, households, and individuals. Women may be affected differently than men, poorer people are typically the hardest-hit, and villagers and city dwellers will experience different effects. Understanding the likely impacts of economic shocks, and how they may vary across households and individuals, allows more appropriate, targeted policies that avert the greatest negative impacts. This is central to promoting peace and security.

In Kyrgyzstan, over a quarter of the population lives below the national poverty line, and people face a number of social and economic stresses. For instance, the country has recently experienced a dramatic escalation of violence along its border with Tajikistan—the kind of disruption that has many broader impacts.

Work analyzing 13 consecutive years of individual- and household-level panel data from Kyrgyzstan, alongside data on price shocks, has explored how income fluctuations affect labor supply decisions and migration, as well as health, nutrition, and well-being. The results show that reductions in income fuel temporary as well as permanent migration (for both men and women, but more so for men); longer hours of employment for women who remain at home; fewer secondary education opportunities for women; and declines in child health and nutrition, especially in rural households.

In Pakistan, we looked at how different weather patterns affected long-term mobility, finding that heat stress—though not flooding—has been a major driver of long-term, long-distance migration for both men and women. With a changing climate, this result underscores the potential for increased migration—which can be an positive force in development (supporting livelihoods, building resilience, and protecting against fragility and conflict), but can also generate development challenges.

In another study examining these same households, we found that despite significant gains in consumption, migrants in Pakistan experience a deterioration in physical health, mental health, and subjective well-being. This decline coincides with decreased wealth accumulation and unrealized aspirations with respect to wealth. These results underscore the need for a better understanding of what happens when shocks spur migration, and how to protect individuals from potentially negative aspects of migration.

An additional study on Pakistan found that citizens’ aspirations are important predictors of future-oriented behaviors and investments that can help them rise out of poverty, but that natural disasters significantly lower aspirations—especially among the rural poor. However, it also found that government social protection (programs targeted specifically at disaster victims) can significantly blunt the negative impacts on aspirations stemming from natural disasters. Thus, the value of social protection is underestimated if aspirations are ignored.

Overall, these studies underscore the substantial unpredictability in the world that can dramatically affect households, spur migration, and lower incomes and aspirations. Can appropriate policy responses address these problems?

A role for government policy to foster peace, trust, and social cohesion

Several studies show how cash transfer programs contribute to trust in government and civil society. Working closely with the government of Tanzania to evaluate its pilot conditional cash transfer program, we found that receiving transfers fosters trust in government—especially in elected officials, and when there are enough community meetings to convey the aims of the program and how it is targeted. Given links between trust in government and peace and stability, this suggests government social protection programming has peace-building benefits.

In another study of the same population, we found that cash transfers foster trust in members of the community through increased ability to reach out for informal support, thus improving social cohesion in the group.

Additionally, our research in Pakistan reveals that cash transfers promote trust in government and support for government and the political system (e.g., over extremist groups that position themselves against the state)—with the largest effects when feelings of relative deprivation/poverty are highest.

A research agenda moving forward

Collectively, these studies underscore how science can trace out the impacts of various shocks and crises afflicting the world today, as well as trace out policy solutions that can address them and improve the lives of the rural poor.

To further these efforts, CGIAR researchers have proposed a new research initiative on the topic of Fragility, Conflict, and Migration that aims to strengthen early warning, anticipatory action, and governance to mitigate the impacts of overlapping crises; bridge emergency operations with long-term sustainability principles; generate evidence to guide effective policies and programming to promote stability and women’s empowerment; and accelerate innovations that address humanitarian-peace-development priorities alongside local innovators, including women. We hope to collaborate with partners in a number of fragile and conflict-affected countries. The initiative is led by me (Katrina Kosec, IFPRI), Peter Laderach, (Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT), and Sandra Ruckstuhl (International Water Management Institute). We look forward to working with many CGIAR colleagues and partners to expand the body of scientific evidence to promote peace and development.

Katrina Kosec is a Senior Research Fellow with IFPRI's Development Strategy and Governance Division.