Exchange rate misalignment in Pakistan and its general equilibrium distributional implications

Dario Debowicz, Wajiha Saeed
pssp working paper

Recent findings in the growth literature suggest that developing countries need to keep a devalued exchange rate to stimulate their economic growth. Building on these findings, we econometrically evaluate to what ex-tent the real exchange rate of Pakistan has been aligned with its economic fundamentals, and find that the Pa-kistan rupee has been significantly and systematically overvalued during the last years. We then simulate the general equilibrium effects of an eventual re-alignment of the real exchange rate with economic fundamen-tals, and find not only an expected increase in the relative size of the tradable sector - where productivity in-creases tend to be faster – but also an associated improvement in the income of the poorest groups.