The impact of climate change and adaptation on food production in low-income countries

Evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Mahmud Yesuf, Salvatore di Falco, Temesgen T. Deressa, Claudia Ringler, Gunnar Kohlin
ifpri discussion paper

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the impact of climate change on food production in a typical low-income developing country. Furthermore, it provides an estimation of the determinants of adaptation to climate change and the implications of these strategies on farm productivity. The analysis relies on primary data from 1,000 farms producing cereal crops in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Based on monthly collected meteorological station data, the thin plate spline method of spatial interpolation was used to interpolate the specific rainfall and temperature values of each household. The rainfall data were disaggregated at the seasonal level. We found that climate change and climate change adaptations have significant impact on farm productivity. Extension services (both formal and farmer to farmer), as well as access to credit and information on future climate changes, affect adaptation positively and significantly. Farm households with larger access to social capital are more likely to adopt yield-related adaptation strategies.