Risks from solar powered groundwater irrigation: Emissions reductions may not meet expectations, and groundwater use will likely increase

Solar-powered groundwater irrigation is expanding exponentially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), creating opportunities and risks. In South Asia, more than 500,000 small stand-alone pumps have already been installed (see the figure). In Sub-Saharan Africa, solar pumps are gaining traction to expand food production and alleviate poverty. There is optimism about solar-powered irrigation helping LMICs meet their climate change mitigation obligations, but insights from behavioral sciences, and early evidence, suggest that such emissions reductions are complex to calculate and likely lower than assumed. Groundwater pumping is likely to increase. Moving from siloed accounting of land, water, and energy use to integrated assessment frameworks can help manage unintended risks to land and water resources (1) and prevent lock-ins. By assessing social costs and benefits of solar-powered groundwater pumping, policy-makers can navigate tradeoffs where irrigation expands food production and alleviates poverty but has unintended or unaccounted consequences for groundwater depletion and carbon emissions.