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journal article

Decomposing USDA ending stocks forecast errors

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) publishes monthly Ending Stocks projections, providing an estimate of the end-of-marketing-year inventory of a particular commodity, which effectively summarizes its supply and demand outlook.

journal article

Mapping global cropping system: Challenges, opportunities and future perspectives

Spatially explicit global cropping system data products, which provide critical information on harvested areas, crop yields, other management variables, are imperative to tackle current grand challenges such as global food security and climate cha

journal article

Multivariate random forest prediction of poverty and malnutrition prevalence

Advances in remote sensing and machine learning enable increasingly accurate, inexpensive, and timely estimation of poverty and malnutrition indicators to guide development and humanitarian agencies’ programming.

journal article

From bad to worse: Poverty impacts of food availability responses to weather shocks

Since Amartya Sen's famous work on Poverty and Famines, economists have understood that the impacts of food market shocks on the poor depend much more on their impacts on households’ incomes and access to food than on overall food availability, an

discussion paper

When implementation goes wrong: Lessons from crop insurance in India

Based on experiments to bring about comprehensive crop insurance coverage over the last 50 years, the Indian government introduced a new crop insurance program, called Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY), in April 2016.

discussion paper

Forecasting commodity prices using long-short-term memory neural networks

This paper applies a recurrent neural network (RNN) method to forecast cotton and oil prices. We show how these new tools from machine learning, particularly Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) models, complement traditional methods.

report

Can call detail records provide insights into women’s empowerment? A case study from Uganda

We use CDRs of mobile phone users in Uganda combined with data from a phone survey to train machine-learning models to predict the sex of the mobile phone user and several indicators of economic empowerment such as ownership of a house and land, o

journal article

A cultivated planet in 2010 - Part 2: The global gridded agricultural-production maps

Data on global agricultural production are usually available as statistics at administrative units, which does not give any diversity and spatial patterns; thus they are less informative for subsequent spatially explicit agricultural and environme