Publications and Datasets

Irrigation technologies and management and their environmental consequences: Empirical evidence from Ethiopia

The main objective of this study is to understand the interlinkages between different irrigation technologies and management systems and environmental outcomes. We use a unique and comprehensive household and plot-level dataset covering ten districts of Ethiopia complemented with remotely sensed data and qualitative information collected from the study sites. The econometric results show that compared to open-access plots equipped with pump irrigation, other irrigated configurations, and especially private groundwater-based systems, have higher vegetation cover and show less susceptibility to the most common environmental concerns mentioned in the survey regions: water logging, soil salinity, and erosion externalities.

Diet quality and associations with motivation and ability to consume a healthy diet among adolescents from urban low-income households in Bangladesh

In low- and middle-income countries, particularly in urban areas, adolescent diets consist mainly of energy-dense and nutrient-poor foods, putting them at risk of malnutrition and non-communicable diseases (NCD). In Bangladesh, little is known about the diet quality of adolescents, their food choices and the drivers of such choices. This study assessed motivations and ability to consume a healthy diet among adolescent girls and boys from low-income urban families and how these drivers were associated with dietary diversity and diet quality. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 299 adolescents (15–19 years) from low-income households in Dhaka city during September–October 2020. The Diet Quality Questionnaire was used to collect non-quantitative food intake in the previous day or night to calculate diet quality indicators of food group diversity score, % of adolescents achieving minimum dietary diversity, NCD-Protect and NCD-Risk and the Global Dietary Recommendations score. Motivation was measured by 11 food choice motives. Ability was measured by belief in own ability to engage in healthy eating behaviors (self-efficacy). Adolescent diets showed a mean food group diversity of 4.9 out of 10, with 60% of adolescents achieving minimum dietary diversity, but lacked health-promoting foods (average of 2.7 out of 9 food groups) yet included few foods to avoid and limit (1.6 out of 9). Adolescents valued food choice motive ‘safety’ the most, followed by ‘health’, ‘taste’, ‘price’, ‘convenience’ and ‘local or seasonal’. A higher motivation to consume ‘local or seasonal’ and a lower motivation driven by ‘price’, and a higher perceived self-efficacy were associated with better diet quality. Future interventions should address self-efficacy, concerns about food price and increase local and seasonal foods availability in the urban poor food environment of Dhaka to improve overall diet quality.

Toilet construction under the Swachh Bharat Mission and infant mortality in India

Improvement of water and sanitation conditions may reduce infant mortality, particularly in countries like India where open defecation is highly prevalent. We conducted a quasi-experimental study to investigate the association between the Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM)—a national sanitation program initiated in 2014—and infant (IMR) and under five mortality rates (U5MR) in India. We analyzed data from thirty-five Indian states and 640 districts spanning 10 years (2011–2020), with IMR and U5MR per thousand live births as the outcomes. Our main exposure was the district-level annual percentage of households that received a constructed toilet under SBM. We mapped changes in IMR and U5MR and toilet access at the district level over time. We fit two-way fixed effects regression models controlling for sociodemographic, wealth, and healthcare-related confounders at the district-level to estimate the association between toilets constructed and child mortality. Toilet access and child mortality have a historically robust inverse association in India. Toilets constructed increased dramatically across India following the implementation of SBM in 2014. Results from panel data regression models show that districts with > 30% toilets constructed under SBM corresponds with 5.3 lower IMR (p < 0.05), and 6.8 lower U5MR (p < 0.05). Placebo, falsification tests and robustness checks support our main findings. The post-SBM period in India exhibited accelerated reductions in infant and child mortality compared to the pre-SBM years. Based on our regression estimates, the provision of toilets at-scale may have contributed to averting approximately 60,000–70,000 infant deaths annually. Our findings show that the implementation of transformative sanitation programs can deliver population health benefits in low- and middle-income countries.

Africa in world agricultural trade: Recent trends and carbon footprint

Agriculture, deeply embedded within the cultural and economic fabric of African societies, is a linchpin for the continent’s socioeconomic advancement. With its diverse array of climatic conditions, Africa hosts a spectrum of agricultural practices, ranging from traditional subsistence farming to modern commercial enterprises. However, alongside agriculture’s pivotal role in livelihoods and economic growth, the sector poses a challenge as a significant contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Against this backdrop, a nuanced understanding of the intricate relationship among agricultural activities, emissions, and international trade emerges as crucial for balancing sustainable development within Africa and global climate change mitigation efforts. In an era marked by the urgent imperative to address climate change and curb GHG emissions, the role of agriculture has come under intense scrutiny (Smith et al. 2014). The global agriculture sector, intricately interwoven with international trade, underscores the multifaceted environmental complexities inherent in agricultural production and distribution. Climate change significantly impacts global agrifood trade dynamics, influencing production patterns, market accessibility, and economic resilience (Bozzola, Lamonaca, and Santeramo 2023; Gouel and Laborde 2021; Lamonaca, Bozzola, and Santeramo 2024). These effects are compounded by climate-induced shifts in crop yields, water availability, and temperature regimes, altering both supply and demand dynamics across international markets. Notably, agricultural goods traded across borders “carry” the emissions generated during their production and transportation. This notion of emissions embodied in exports and imports has garnered increasing attention in contemporary literature (Davis and Caldeira 2010). Recent studies emphasize the significant interlinkages between climate change and emissions embedded in trade within the agrifood sector. For example, Santeramo, Ferrari, and Toteti (2024) explore the intricate balance required to achieve climate change and environmental goals without resorting to protectionist measures, emphasizing the complexities of international trade policies in mitigating emissions. Li et al. (2023) highlight that despite efficiency gains along global supply chains, changes in global food consumption patterns have contributed to increased GHG emissions, underscoring the need for sustainable trade practices to mitigate environmental impacts.

Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor 2024

The 2024 AATM investigates critical issues related to African agricultural trade. As in previous editions of the report, we have developed a database that corrects discrepancies in trade flow values, as reported by importing and exporting countries, as the basis for analyzing Africa’s international, domestic, and regional economic community (REC) trade. Given the pressing need to address climate change and curb greenhouse gas emissions, this year’s AATM takes an in-depth look at the relationship between climate change, water use, and emissions and African agricultural trade.

Agricultural trade integration in ECOWAS

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is a regional economic community (REC) composed of 15 member states and an associate country. Created in 1975 in Abuja, ECOWAS was established to pursue stability and regional integration in Africa and, over time, has expanded its mandate to include political dimensions. It is one of the largest RECs in Africa, covering a physical area of 5.1 million square kilometers with an estimated population of 424.3 million people as of 2022. The region’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022 was estimated at US$758 billion, which represents a quarter of Africa’s GDP (World Bank 2024). As the ECOWAS region pursues a process of structural transformation, the region’s economy has shifted toward industry and services, and the share of agriculture in GDP in ECOWAS countries has been declining, as in many developing countries (Laborde et al. 2018). However, the agriculture sector still represents 26 percent of GDP2 on average across the region, although with a high degree of heterogeneity: the share of agriculture in total GDP ranges from 5 percent in Cabo Verde to 60 percent in Sierra Leone. The REC is a heterogenous bloc that encompasses economic and demographic giants like Nigeria and small states like Cabo Verde and Gambia. It also includes landlocked countries (Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger), members with access to the sea (Guinea-Bissau and Sierra Leone), and island states (Cabo Verde). ECOWAS is often cited as a successful example of regional integration in Africa. Indeed, since its beginning, the integration process has moved forward continuously with key successes such as the free movement of people, which has been in effect since 1979. Among the eight RECs recognized by the African Union, ECOWAS ranks fifth for trade integration and first in terms of the free movement of people, according to the Regional Integration Index built by the United Nations’ Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA). However, when it comes to movement of goods, results are mixed, and serious challenges remain despite the formal processes of liberalization adopted by member states. The frictions affecting the free movement of goods are problematic, particularly for agricultural products, given that, in an environment marked by global crisis (notably the pandemic of COVID-19 in 2020 and the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war), regional trade could mitigate the negative impacts and stabilize domestic markets. Furthermore, recent political tensions, marked by the intention of three member states (Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger) to withdraw from the organization, raise questions about the REC’s sustainability. This chapter assesses the level of agricultural trade integration in the ECOWAS area, progress made, and the challenges ahead. In the next section, we provide the historical background, reviewing early regional integration initiatives in Africa and the main steps in the construction of ECOWAS. The following section assesses trade costs within ECOWAS, including tariffs, nontariff measures, and logistics performance, with a special focus on costs arising from currency diversity as an impediment to trade. We then examine intraregional trade flows, including informal cross-border trade, which represents the bulk of these flows. Before concluding, the chapter presents key achievements and main challenges to greater integration.

Impact of climate change on trade in Africa

The literature on the complex relationship between trade and climate change is rich. While trade can affect climate change through dirty production techniques or carbon emissions due to transport (Brenton and Chemutai 2021), climate change can affect trade through its effect on agricultural productivity (Ben Zaied and Cheikh 2015; Chandio et al. 2020), production, and thus countries’ specialization (Gouel and Laborde 2021), primarily due to high temperatures and water stress (Hamududu and Ngoma 2020). As Africa is a net importer of agricultural products, the consequence is that climate change will likely affect food security in the medium and long term. Against this background, the objective of this chapter is twofold. First, we examine the extent to which African countries are exposed to climate change relative to other regions of the world. Second, we show how Africa’s comparative advantages can be altered with rising temperatures and water stress. Our main findings show that climate change effects in Africa are more pronounced than in other regions, reflected in the increase in extreme weather events associated with rising temperatures and greater variability in precipitation. These developments are likely to increase the number of food insecure people. Furthermore, we identify how climate change can affect African countries’ specialization based on products’ sensitivity to changes in temperature and their dependence on water. We show that several crops (such as leguminous vegetables, edible nuts and coconuts, groundnuts, oilseeds, and oleaginous fruits) will be affected by climate change. Other crops’ production may be less affected, but their future expansion may be limited by climate change–related factors.

Overview and Recent Challenges [In Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor 2024]

The Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor (AATM) is an annual flagship publication of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and AKADEMIYA2063. This seventh edition provides an overview of short- and long-term trends and drivers behind Africa’s global trade, intra-African trade, and trade within Africa’s regional economic communities (RECs), with a focus on the nexus of trade and climate change. The six chapters of this 2024 AATM report are as follows. This first chapter offers an overview of the food security concerns in African countries in the wake of the global crisis related to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine war, and the global resurgence of protectionist policies. It examines trade through a food security lens, including availability, utilization, accessibility, and stability of food supplies, as well as the effects of tariffs, nontariff measures (NTMs), and deep trade agreements on food security in Africa. Special attention is paid to fertilizers, given the importance of these inputs for agricultural productivity and food security. As a result of Africa’s heavy dependence on fertilizer imports, farmers, and particularly smallholders, were severely challenged in the recent crisis when spikes in international fertilizer prices were compounded by high rates of domestic inflation.

Fruit and vegetable value chains in Africa

The patterns of Africa’s participation in fruit and vegetable value chains (FVVCs) clearly reflect the continent’s colonial past. The restructuring of African exports around a few commodities to serve European markets during the colonial period largely undermined the farming of local food crops, including indigenous fruits and vegetables. Postcolonial governments focused on cash crops as the main source of foreign exchange earnings, reinforcing the status quo. However, the mid-1980s witnessed a major shift in global demand away from traditional cash crops and toward high-value products, including fruits and vegetables. This shift was an opportunity for developing countries, including those in Africa, to diversify their exports and reduce their vulnerability to global commodity price fluctuations. Participation in FVVCs can also have positive impacts on employment creation, income mobility, and poverty reduction. Yet, Africa’s participation in FVVCs is undermined by a number of structural challenges, some of which are typical of FVVCs, and some related to long-standing issues facing African economies in general, and the agriculture sector in particular.

Digital Twin for management of water resources in the Limpopo River Basin: a concept

A Digital Twin is a virtual representation of an object or system that spans its lifecycle, is updated from real-time data, and uses simulation, machine learning and reasoning to help decision making. The use of Digital Twins to aid decision-makers to make realtime decisions in complex systems is a growing field, with large potential for water system management. The CGIAR Initiative on Digital Innovation is developing a prototype Digital Twin for the Limpopo River Basin in close combination with stakeholders, to enable better management and conservation of this imperilled natural resource upon which millions of people depend. The Digital Twin will provide an attractive and easy-to-use interface for users to intuitively understand large volumes of data and modelling results for timely management decisions, and to simulate the impact of these decisions on the complex river basin ecosystem before they are put into action. This includes an artificial intelligence (AI) tool to interrogate and visualize key actionable data and forecasts. It will be developed in a phased approach according to stakeholder priorities.

Can farmer collectives empower women and improve their welfare? Mixed methods evidence from India

Farmer Producer Organizations (FPOs)—farmer collectives, often legally registered – can mitigate some of the constraints smallholder farmers face by improving their access to extension, services, and markets, especially for women. We evaluate the effects of a set of interventions delivered through women-only FPOs in Jharkhand, India, using a panel of 1200 households and a difference-in-difference model with nearest neighbor matching. A complementary qualitative study in the same areas helps triangulate and interpret our findings. The interventions aimed to improve agricultural productivity by coordinating production and improving access to services, while also providing gender sensitization trainings to FPO leaders and members. We collect household data on asset ownership and agricultural outcomes and individual data on women’s and men’s empowerment using the project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index for Market Inclusion (pro-WEAI+MI). Our results for asset ownership, land cultivated, cropping intensity, and per acre yields, revenues or costs are statistically insignificant. Effects on men’s and women’s empowerment are mixed. While we see positive effects on women’s decisionmaking, asset ownership, control over income and attitudes towards intimate partner violence, the program is associated with an increase in workload and a reduction in active group membership for both men and women. Men appear to cede control over resources and decisionmaking to other household members. Additional analyses suggest that while some effects can occur in the short-term, others take time to accrue. FPO based interventions that aim to empower women or other marginalized groups likely require sustained investments over multiple years and will need to go beyond improving FPO functioning and increasing women’s participation to transforming social norms.

The unmet financial needs of intermediary firms within agri-food value chains in Uganda and Bangladesh

Intermediary firms within agri-food value chains operating between the farmgate and retailers typically account for at least as much, if not more, value added as the primary agricultural production sector of the economy, but little is known about how these small and largely informal firms conduct their business. Drawing on a set of innovative surveys implemented amid the arabica coffee and soybean value chains in Uganda and the rice and potato value chains in Bangladesh, we describe the financial activities of the firms that transform agricultural produce into food. We document four sets of results. First, across all intermediary actors in our data the overwhelming majority of transactions are cash-based. Second, although many intermediary actors are un-banked, access to financial accounts varies considerably by value chain segment, commodity, and country. Third, while most intermediary actors report using mobile money for personal purposes, especially in Uganda, very few use mobile money to facilitate business transactions. Fourth, although intermediary actors frequently report exposure to risk, very few effectively manage this risk. We conclude by discussing how intermediary agri-food value chain actors represent an underappreciated population for the promotion of new technologies both to improve the stability of the agricultural sector and to improve outcomes among smallholder farmers.

The agrifood system in PNG: Structure and drivers of transformation

Although the economy of Papua New Guinea is heavily influenced by the oil and natural gas sector, which accounts for 30 percent of GDP and most of the country’s foreign exchange earnings, small-scale agriculture continues to be the major source of livelihoods for most of the population. Much of the food crop production (particularly starchy staples such as sweet potatoes, cassava, yams and sago) is not traded internationally; however, oil palm, coffee and cocoa are major exports. A large share of agricultural production undergoes little value-added through processing and much of it is consumed by farm households themselves. Thus, there would appear to be substantial scope for increases in employment and incomes through further development of the broader agrifood system, including agroprocessing, trade and transport, and food services. Subsistence farming typically dominates agriculture during the earliest stages of development; as agricultural productivity rises; however, farmers start to supply surplus production to markets, thus creating job opportunities for workers in the nonfarm economy both within and outside of agrifood sectors (Haggblade, Hazell, and Dorosh 2007). Rising rural incomes generate demand for more diverse products, leading to more processing, packaging, transporting, trading, and other nonfarm activities. In the early stages of agricultural transformation, the agriculture sector serves as an engine of rural and national economic growth. Eventually, urbanization, the nonfarm economy, and nonagricultural incomes play more dominant roles in propelling agrifood system development, with urban and rural nonfarm consumers creating most of the demand for agricultural outputs via value chains connecting rural areas to towns and cities (Dorosh and Thurlow 2013). The exact nature of this transformation process varies across countries because of the diverse structure of their economies and the unique growth trajectories of their various agrifood and nonfood subsectors. This paper describes the current and changing structure of PNG’s agrifood system (AFS) and evaluates the potential contribution of different value chains to accelerate agricultural transformation and inclusiveness. We start by offering a simple conceptual framework of the AFS and then compare PNG’s AFS to that of other countries at different stages of development. We go on to disaggregate PNG’s AFS across agricultural value chains, taking into consideration their different market structures and historical contribution to economic growth and transformation. Finally, we use a forward-looking economywide model to assess the diverse contributions that specific value chains can make to each of a set of broad development outcomes. We conclude by summarizing our main findings.

Geopolitical changes and their implications for agricultural trade negotiations

The dissolution of the Soviet Union (USSR) in the 1990s marked a significant geopolitical shift, resulting in the clear and undisputed preeminence of the United States (USA) in global affairs. This new dominance was bolstered by the support of its closest allies, primarily the European Union (EU), Japan, Australia, and a few others. In the wake of this geopolitical shift, a new phase of global economic interdependence emerged characterized by a growing reliance on trade and the development of global value chains, which connected production processes across multiple countries. This collaborative approach to production rapidly accelerated at the beginning of the 21st century and played a crucial role in the rapid economic development of countries like China and the Republic of Korea.

Global food security concerns and agricultural trade: Building a responsible and effective relationship

Since the Agreement on Agriculture came into effect trade in food has quintupled. The rules agreed under the framework of the World Trade Organization (WTO) allowed developing countries to join external markets and increase their participation to the point that they now account for two thirds of the overall flow of agricultural trade.

Environmental concerns and agricultural trade: Building a responsible and effective relationship

The rapid expansion of goods and services trade over the last several decades has created complex interdependencies between production, consumption, and job creation across economies. At the same time, a range of environmental issues-declining biodiversity, water scarcity, and water pollution, as well as climate change-are becoming more acute and call for strong, immediate, and coordinated international action. Countries and companies around the world are making ambitious climate change mitigation plans to address the climate crisis and to reach the net-zero emissions global target determined at the Paris Agreement. In this context, addressing the nexus between international trade and sustainable development is now more urgent than ever.

Transforming agricultural support for a sustainable future: A Latin America and Caribbean view

Addressing the complex challenges facing agricultural and food systems requires a detailed and integrated approach that ensures food security, enhances nutrition, protects environmental sustainability, and supports livelihoods. Governments are crucial in guiding this transformation through a range of policy tools, including regulatory measures, market-based mechanisms, price adjustments that reflect true production costs, and the reassessment of agricultural subsidies. Achieving comprehensive solutions to these challenges across the domains of food security, nutrition, and sustainable development hinges on reforming domestic agricultural support.

Public stockholding programs and the WTO

The issue of how support for public stockholding (PSH) programs is calculated and disciplined within the WTO Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) has been a point of contention since 2012. PSH was largely uncontroversial during the Doha negotiations, where issues like the Special Safeguard Mechanism, domestic support, and cotton contributed to the collapse of negotiations in 2008 (Blustein 2009; Jones 2010; Margulis 2023). However, members who raised administered prices to keep up with surging market prices in the late 2000s found themselves facing potential challenges, as support levels for PSH programs threatened to exceed domestic support commitments under the AoA. At the Ministerial Conference in Bali in 2013 (MC 9), members agreed to an interim mechanism, which granted a “peace clause” to countries with existing PSH programs, effectively shielding them from challenges regarding compliance with domestic support obligations under the WTO Dispute Settlement Mechanism. Under the Bali Decision, members agreed to provide data on how the program operated and to ensure that such programs were not trade distorting or would not affect the food security of other WTO members. PSH remains controversial and members failed to reach agreement on a permanent solution at subsequent Ministerials in Nairobi, Buenos Aires and Geneva. More than 10 years later, failure to reach an agreement on PSH continues to block significant progress in overall negotiations.

Price volatility, export restrictions and the need for transparency

In this chapter, we explore how the WTO has struggled to fulfill its mission of advancing negotiations post the Uruguay Round. As export restrictions were not prioritized during the creation of GATT and the establishment of the WTO, this led to the utilization of export restrictions by countries, particularly in an unstable context, further exacerbating volatility in agricultural commodities. Moreover, as a result of an insufficient WTO notification system, countries have failed to promptly notify all measures. Furthermore, due to the paralysis of the Dispute Settlement Body, the WTO has lost its enforcement capacity, reducing the incentive for countries to engage in discussions within that forum, even when it is necessary to enhance transparency levels that provide greater certainty to dynamic and stressed markets, which is crucial for driving global food security and ensuring efficient allocation.

Agriculture negotiations priorities and sustainable development at the WTO

During a meeting of the WTO Committee on Agriculture in Special Session (CoASS) in June 2023, agricultural negotiators made new submissions on domestic support and export restrictions. Submissions on domestic support were made by the African Group, the Cairns Group -a coalition of developed and developing agricultural exporting economies-, and Costa Rica. The United Kingdom also submitted an analytical paper on export restrictions, making the case for WTO members to pursue more focused discussions on the food security impact of export restrictions on agricultural products, based on data and members’ experiences.

Proposed pathways for moving forward

In Chapter I, the introduction of this book, we present a succinct description of the many difficulties that the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its member countries have encountered over the last decade in their attempts to advance in negotiations toward agreements that could contribute to more open and transparent global trade and the discussions taking place as a result of these difficulties. Starting from this context, the rest of the book aims to contribute to three important themes that have emerged from recent discussions in the WTO. The selection of these themes and the authors’ proposals to solve these themes are influenced by the needs and perspectives of Latin America, specifically the region’s food-exporting countries.

Introduction: Creating context and unveiling crucial issues

The World Trade Organization’s (WTO) 12th Ministerial Conference (MC12) was held in June 2022 in Geneva, Switzerland, after a year-long delay due to COVID-19-related travel restrictions and other disruptions. The same year, a new wave of export restrictions and trade disruptions resulted from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier that year, adding to the disruptions brought on by the pandemic. In many ways, these events were the beginning of geopolitical changes that have now led to a profound transformation in the structure of production and trade, including a growing tendency toward protectionism. MC13 took place in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, in February 2024. Little progress was made in general, but especially in relation to agricultural trade. With respect to the latter, the main discussion centered on reducing trade-distorting agricultural subsidies to ensure fair competition, improving market access for developing countries by lowering tariff and nontariff barriers, addressing export restrictions to ensure stable supplies during food crises, and providing flexibility and support to developing countries through special and differential treatment. Additionally, strategies were discussed to enhance global food security amid challenges such as climate change and conflicts, aiming to create a more equitable and sustainable global agricultural trading system. However, positive outcomes from these discussions were few and not very significant.

Navigating the trade landscape: A Latin American perspective building on the WTO 13th ministerial conference

This publication-a joint effort by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA)-is being released in the context of growing changes and fragmentation in global economic and trade relationships. Countries are increasingly adopting protectionist measures in response to recent crises and the decreased competitiveness of value chains, due to rising production, marketing and transportation costs. The complex multilateral trade system and the urgent need to implement concrete actions in this area are prompting countries to work towards the adoption of new standards that aim to protect and preserve the environment but could also become barriers to trade that impose a significant economic and social cost on other countries. The countries of the Americas must continue to support efforts to strengthen the multilateral trade system, ensuring that it is open, transparent and science-based, as well as to effectively participate in discussion forums such as the ministerial conferences of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Amidst this scenario, international trade plays a vital role in transforming food systems, by interconnecting them and contributing to creating a more sustainable global food system. In recent years, the growth of production and exports has converted Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) into the largest net food exporting region in the world. On average, agrifood exports from the region in 2021-2023 accounted for 17% of global agrifood exports, representing one fourth of total exports from the region. During that period, LAC agrifood exports grew by 7.6%. Yet, it bears mentioning that, despite its important role, the region has its share of challenges. During 2023, 85% of LAC agrifood exports were directed at external markets and 53% of the value of exported agrifood exports was concentrated among only 10 products. This demonstrates the region’s significant vulnerability and is undoubtedly a challenge that must be addressed. This document is an inter-institutional effort to share ideas and reflections on the main issues to be tackled building on the 13th WTO Ministerial Conference. We hope that it will serve as input in strengthening the participation of the countries of the Americas in WTO multilateral negotiations, while also highlighting the key role of agricultural trade in agrifood system transformation.

Shaping multilateral trade: The changing institutional landscape

This chapter highlights the fact that many international trade stakeholders agree on the urgent need to strengthen the multilateral trade system and its governing body, the World Trade Organization (WTO). This will mean that the WTO will need to strengthen its intrinsic negotiating function, in particular its ability to achieve results in different processes in the trade agenda, and particularly in the negotiations on agriculture. Indeed, it has failed to completely fulfill its mandate to deepen the reform process, through the adoption of key disciplines in the major negotiation pillars, among them, domestic support, export restrictions and the search for innovative options to fulfill the Bali mandate on the establishment of public entities to promote food security. Moreover, negotiations on other issues that are relevant to a significant group of countries, such as market access, are moving at their own pace. Undoubtedly, tackling major challenges such as food security and climate change will require innovation and the adoption of new technologies and science, in order to increase production and the productivity of agrifood systems. Production volume, quality and sustainability must be improved, without losing sight of the fact that producers are social and economic players in the countries whose economic activity must be profitable. It must also be mentioned that trade and national production play an important role in achieving global food security.

Individual interventions, collective lessons: Developing mid-range theory on women’s groups to improve health

Background Interventions with women’s groups have been widely implemented to improve health outcomes in low- and middle-income settings, particularly India. While there is a large evidence base on the effectiveness of single interventions, it is challenging to predict whether a women’s group intervention delivered in one setting can be expected to work in another. Methods We applied realist principles to develop and refine a mid-range theory on the effectiveness of women’s groups interventions, summarised key lessons for implementation, and reflected on the process. We synthesised primary data from several interventions in India, a systematic review, and an analysis of behaviour change techniques. We developed mid-range theories across three areas: maternal and newborn health, nutrition, and violence against women, as well as an overarching mid-range theory on how women’s groups can improve health. Results Our overarching mid-range theory suggested that effective interventions should: build group or community capabilities; focus on health outcomes relevant to group members; and approach health issues modifiable through women’s individual or collective actions. We identified four key lessons for future interventions with women’s groups, including the importance of skilled and remunerated facilitation, sufficient intensity, supply-side strengthening, and the need to adapt delivery during scale up while maintaining fidelity to intervention theory. Conclusions Our experience demonstrated the feasibility of developing mid-range theory from a combination of evidence and insights from practice. It also underscored the importance of community engagement and ongoing research to ‘thicken’ mid-range theories to design effective and scalable women’s groups interventions in India and similar settings.

Gender and age gaps in voice & agency in community governance: The value of female local political representation in India and Africa South of the Sahara under intensifying conflicts and climate uncertainty

Expanding women’s voice and agency (VA) within governance and decision-making has increasingly been recognized as necessary for promoting women’s welfare, community development, and inclusive food systems. VA are critical components of gender equality, in addition to access to resources and economic opportunities. While agency relates to an individual’s ability to make meaningful choices (our specific focus is on choices made beyond the household), voice within community governance and decision-making relates to an individual’s ability to play a public role in decision-making processes that affect one’s life. Exercising VA within community governance and decision-making involves having a meaningful say in the public sphere. Women’s VA within communities may strengthen resilience, increase women’s access to essential resources, improve women’s decision-making power in various domains including the household, and facilitate broader social networks for women. Sustainable Development Goal five on gender equality specifically targets the full and effective participation and equal opportunities for leadership for women at all levels of political life. However, gender gaps in VA are persistent. These gaps can be further aggravated by adverse external shocks, such as climate uncertainty and conflicts, which can impact resources, capital, and economic opportunities and which are often disproportionately harmful to women.

Sustainable livestock development in Sudan: Challenges, opportunities, and policy priorities

Livestock in Sudan plays a crucial role in the national economy, particularly in alleviating poverty and enhancing food security. Despite its significance, the last comprehensive livestock census for the country was conducted in 1975, resulting in now outdated and often unreliable data. Recent estimates by USAID indicate that Sudan ranks among the top three African countries in terms of livestock numbers, with an estimated 105.6 million animals. The livestock population in Sudan is predominantly composed of camels, goats, sheep, and cattle. The spatial distribution of livestock is variable and influenced by local factors such as feed resources, land use, and ecological conditions. The Greater Kordofan and Greater Darfur regions have the largest livestock numbers. However, discrepancies between official statistics and field data show the need for updated and accurate livestock data. The livestock sector provides 40 percent of employment and 34 percent of Sudan’s agricultural gross domestic product (GDP). The livestock sector is a vital source of foreign exchange for the Sudanese economy through exports of livestock and livestock products. Besides its economic contributions, the livestock sector provides essential food products, including meat, eggs, and milk, and draught power for agricultural operations and transportation, particularly in rural areas. However, relative to irrigated agriculture, the sector faces challenges due to underinvestment and minimal government attention.

IFPRI Malawi Monthly Maize Market Report, July 2024

The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi to provide clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. All prices are reported in Malawi Kwacha (K).

The Mekong is in transition, what does it mean for food security?

Communities along the Mekong River are already seeing their food access shrink as the climate worsens. Smart imminent solutions could ease the burden.

Beyond the consumer food price index: Measuring the cost of a healthy diet in India

2017/18 Social Accounting Matrix for Indian State Bihar

The Nexus Project is a collaboration between IFPRI and its partners, including national statistical agencies and research institutions. Our aim is to improve the quality of social accounting matrices (SAMs) used for computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling. The Nexus Project develops toolkits and establishes common data standards, procedures, and classification systems for constructing and updating national SAMs. The 2017/18 Indian State Bihar SAM follows the Standard Nexus Structure. The open access version of the Indian State Bihar SAM separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital. Labor is further disaggregated across three education categories. Representative households are disaggregated by rural and urban areas and by per capita consumption expenditure quintile. The remaining accounts include enterprises, government, taxes, savings-and-investment, and the rest of the world.

2017/18 Social Accounting Matrix for Indian State Uttar Pradesh

The Nexus Project is a collaboration between IFPRI and its partners, including national statistical agencies and research institutions. Our aim is to improve the quality of social accounting matrices (SAMs) used for computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling. The Nexus Project develops toolkits and establishes common data standards, procedures, and classification systems for constructing and updating national SAMs. The 2017/18 Indian State Uttar Pradesh SAM follows the Standard Nexus Structure. The open access version of the Indian State Uttar Pradesh SAM separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital. Labor is further disaggregated across three education categories. Representative households are disaggregated by rural and urban areas and by per capita consumption expenditure quintile. The remaining accounts include enterprises, government, taxes, savings-and-investment, and the rest of the world.

South Asia Nutrition Knowledge Initiative: Abstract Digest August 2024

In this third edition of the South Asia Nutrition Knowledge Initiative’s Abstract Digest, we present studies on global, regional, and country-specific evidence on various topics of nutrition. These include the impact of short birth intervals on child malnutrition in the Asia-Pacific region, a summary of lessons from program evaluations of food systems interventions for nutrition in South Asia, the effect of zinc supplementation in pregnant and lactating mothers in a three-country study, and a review of evidence on school meals, impact on nutrition, and their other evolving dimensions. The peer-reviewed country-specific studies are on anemia among women in Bangladesh, the double burden of malnutrition among women of reproductive age in India, and reproductive and child health transitions in India. Other country-specific studies pertain to community-based and nutrition program and multi-sectoral community development interventions in Nepal, and utilization of an integrated child development services program in India. This issue also includes studies focusing on methods, such as measures for coverage of nutrition-sensitive social protection programs, a systematic scoping review examining aspects of quantitative nutrition research engaging with the intersectionality of inequities, a protocol to develop a data repository to support interdisciplinary research into childhood stunting, and a concept exploratory study on empowerment among adolescent girls. We also highlight the availability of an open-access dataset for an integrated food systems assessment, which includes a wealth of data collected from Bangladesh, India, and Nepal spanning climate adaptation, agricultural production, food purchasing and shopping practices, gender disparities in unhealthy eating, adolescent diets and aspirations, and much more! Below is the list of articles. Please scroll down to explore the abstracts in the pages that follow. If this Abstract Digest was forwarded to you, we invite you to subscribe. Happy reading!

Conflict, inclusivity, and transformation of the rice value chain in Myanmar

In numerous low- and middle-income countries, agricultural value chains (AVC) are undergoing rapid transformation, yet scant evidence exists regarding such changes in fragile and conflict- affected settings, and little is known about inclusivity in this transformation. This study focuses on changes in Myanmar’s rice value chain – using unique large-scale primary data – from 2013 to 2022, during an economic boom and subsequent political upheaval and conflict. We document remarkable shifts, including a fourfold increase in rice exports, propelling Myanmar to the world’s fifth-largest rice exporter. Concurrently, domestic market conditions improved, and there was modernization in the ‘hidden middle’ of the value chain including increased investments in modern milling equipment and drying methods. At the farm level we note greater adoption of modern inputs (e.g., improved seed) and harvest/post-harvest technologies and increased reliance on modern specialized service providers. The transformation was not everywhere inclusive, and modernization in some areas decelerated due to conflict. Mills and farms in insecure and conflict-affected areas, as well as remote millers and smallholders, participated to a lesser extent, and the gaps widened during the crisis years. The rapid modernization in Myanmar’s rice value chain from 2013 to 2019 highlights the positive impacts of stable governance, infrastructure investment, and liberalization on AVC transformation while the observed variations in modernization inclusivity across different segments of the value chain underscore the complex interplay between governance, conflict, and AVC transformation. JEL Codes: Q13, Q17, Q18

Assessing the development impacts of bio-innovations: The case of genetically modified maize and cassava in Tanzania

Tanzania’s agriculture is characterized by low productivity due to unpredictable rainfall and the prevalence of pests and diseases. Genetically modified (GM) maize offering protection against drought and insects are being developed. Likewise, GM varieties resistant to cassava brown streak disease were developed. Building on prior crop-based analyses, we use the Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) CGE model to assess the impacts of the adoption of those GM crops. GM maize and cassava have positive effects on the economy, the Agri-Food System (AFS), and poverty. Given its stronger linkages in the AFS, the effects of the GM maize are stronger, especially in higher adoption and high yield scenarios. Likewise, the effects on the poorest and rural households are greater. The high variation across scenarios, and the significant effect of the high adoption/high yield scenarios, suggests a high return to investments and policies that realize these adoption rates and yield potential. JEL Codes: O10, O30, O55

Traders and agri-food value chain resilience: the case of maize in Myanmar

Myanmar has experienced a sequence of dire crises beginning in 2019 including the unexpected closure of a principal trade route, COVID-19 lockdowns and travel restrictions, and a military coup leading to years of disruptions in the banking and transport sectors, inflation, and conflict. Yet, through these cascading shocks Myanmar’s maize sector experienced robust growth in production and exports. This paper examines the reasons underlying this apparent paradox and our findings contribute to the small but growing literatures on agri-food value chain (AVC) resilience and adaptation by traders. Strengthening the resilience of AVCs to shocks has important implications for welfare in developing countries and is increasingly drawing attention from policymakers and development partners. Using data from several sources including rare panel data sets of traders and farmers, and key informant interviews, we show that crop traders have been critical to the resilience of the maize value chain in Myanmar during this turbulent period. Maize traders performed three key functions contributing to resilience: (i) market discovery when primary trade routes were closed; (ii) overcoming transportation disruptions and bank closures to move maize from the farmgate to local and export markets; (iii) maintaining flows of credit to farmers throughout the crises in the form of selling inputs on credit and lending cash, thereby injecting much needed liquidity at times of incredible uncertainty, disruptions in the banking sector, and rising input prices. JEL Codes: Q13, D74, Q02, Q12, D22

Climate shocks and fertilizer responses: Field-level evidence for rice production in Bangladesh

The fertilizer response of yield has been one of the major indicators of agricultural productivity in both developed and developing countries. Filling the evidence gap remains vital regarding fertilizer response in Asia, particularly in South Asia, given the evolution and emergence of new challenges, including intensifying climate shocks. We aim to partly fill this knowledge gap by investigating the associations between climate shocks and fertilizer response in Bangladeshi rice production. Using three rounds of nationally representative farm household panel data with plot- level information, we assess fertilizer response functions regarding rice yield and how the shapes of these response functions are heterogeneous in relation to anomalies in temperatures, droughts, and rainfall. We find robust evidence that climate anomalies have adverse effects on fertilizer responses, including higher temperatures for the Boro and the Aman irrigated systems and higher temperatures and droughts for the Aman rainfed systems. These findings hold robustly under various fertilizer response function forms, i.e., polynomial function and stochastic Linear Response Plateau. Furthermore, results for stochastic Linear Response Plateau are also consistent for both switching regression type models and Bayesian regression models. JEL Codes: Q01, Q12, Q01, Q19

Remoteness, farm production, and dietary diversity in Nepal

This paper explores the relationship between agriculture, dietary diversity, and market access in Nepal, testing the complex causal chains involved, and the nuanced connections between production diversity and dietary diversity among smallholder farmers. While diversifying farm production could enhance dietary diversity, the case of Nepal indicates a varied and context specific relationship. Market access emerges as a crucial factor, often exerting a more significant impact on smallholder farm households than production diversity. Access to markets not only influences economic viability but also contributes directly to food and nutrition security, offering a practical solution to address dietary needs. Focusing on Nepal’s diverse terrain, the study analyzes the interplay of remoteness, market access, irrigation availability, and complementary inputs in shaping farmers’ decisions, providing valuable insights into sustainable agricultural strategies for improved dietary outcomes in low- and middle-income countries. JEL Codes: D13, I15, O12, Q10, Q12, Q18

Nutrition and diet profile: Sri Lanka

• Sri Lanka faces a double burden of malnutrition with the co-existence and persistence of multiple forms of malnutrition, e.g., stunting, wasting, underweight, overweight/ obesity, anemia, and micronutrient deficiences. • Inadequate intake of many micronutrients is common across several population groups in Sri Lanka, indicating low intake of nutrient-dense foods such as F&Vs and animal-source foods. • A diverse diet with adequate intake of nutrient-dense foods should be encouraged to address nutrient gaps among Sri Lankans and reduce the risk of NCDs. • Many government-issued diet- and nutrition-related policies, strategies, and programs have been adopted in Sri Lanka. However, these often do not place enough emphasis on F&Vs. • While national food based dietary guidelines exist, as well as other guidelines and policies, there is uncertainty about the level of public awareness and the population’s adherence to the recommendations. • Evaluations of diet- and nutrition-related interventions are also scarce, indicating a need for rigorous evidence on what works to help guide programs and policies that aim to improve diet and nutrition outcomes among Sri Lankans.

Educational impacts of an unconditional cash transfer program in Mali

In rural West Africa, the rate of out-of-school children is high and delayed entry to primary school is common, particularly for girls. Using the randomized roll-out of a large-scale unconditional cash transfer program in Mali, we examine its impact on child schooling by age and sex. The program leads to significant improvements in schooling outcomes for girls, but not boys. Improvements are especially salient among younger (ages 6–9) and older (ages 15–18) girls. Complementary analysis reveals that the program reduces the time younger girls spend in agricultural work at home and the time older girls spend in domestic work as well as self-employment. Households in the program also spend more on education for older girls in terms of school fees, materials, and transport.

Special issue opening editorial: Designing, assessing and scaling approaches for integrated seed sector development

The paper of how: Estimating treatment effects using the front-door criterion

We illustrate the use of Pearl’s (1995) front-door criterion with observational data with an application in which the assumptions for point identification hold. For identification, the front-door criterion leverages exogenous mediator variables on the causal path. After a preliminary discussion of the identification assumptions behind and the estimation framework used for the front-door criterion, we present an empirical application. In our application, we look at the effect of deciding to share an Uber or Lyft ride on tipping by exploiting the algorithm-driven exogenous variation in whether one actually shares a ride conditional on authorizing sharing, the full fare paid, and origin–destination fixed effects interacted with two-hour interval fixed effects. We find that most of the observed negative relationship between choosing to share a ride and tipping is driven by customer selection into sharing rather than by sharing itself. In the Appendix, we explore the consequences of violating the identification assumptions for the front-door criterion.

From streets to tables: Bottom-up cocreation case studies for healthier food environments in Vietnam and Nigeria

Current food systems fail to provide equity, sustainability, and positive health outcomes, thus underscoring the critical need for their transformation. Intervening in food environments holds substantial promise for contributing to this much-needed transformation. Despite scholars and practitioners often recognizing the necessity for bottom-up approaches, there is a dearth of empirical investigations evaluating the potential of these approaches to contribute to food system transformations in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Our study aims to address this research gap, providing a unique perspective in this regard. Drawing on evidence from two co-creation case studies conducted with small-scale informal fruit and vegetable vendors and poor consumers in Vietnam and Nigeria from January 2020 to December 2021, we explore the relevance of bottom-up community-engaged co-creation processes in intervening within LMICs’ food retail environments. Employing a mixed-methods approach that includes quantitative surveys, qualitative interviews, participatory workshops, and focus group discussions, we demonstrate that bottom-up co-creation processes involving marginalized socioeconomic groups can generate retail-level innovations that are tailored to informal retail contexts, while remaining aligned with established top-down theories and literature pertaining to food environments and healthy diets. We provide empirical evidence highlighting how both vendors and consumers respond positively to the co-created innovations. Expanding upon our results, we offer methodological insights applicable to interventions targeted at food environments in LMICs, and considerations for future research or development initiatives in this domain. Our findings reveal the capacity of vulnerable stakeholders to actively engage in public health initiatives and contribute to developing innovative solutions that are context-specific and conducive to the adoption of healthier dietary practices. These results confirm the potential of bottom-up, co-creation, real-world interventions within informal settings to contribute towards fostering inclusive transformation of food systems.

School meals are evolving: Has the evidence kept up?

School meal programs are popular social programs. They are provided to 61 percent of primary students in high-income countries but to a smaller share of students in less wealthy countries. There is a body of evidence documenting their contribution to education, health and nutrition, and social protection. But in each domain, program objectives have evolved: schooling is recognized to be more about learning than grades obtained; nutrition goals include healthy diets that reduce risks of non-communicable diseases and are more environmentally responsible; social protection programs aim to respond to acute crises and address chronic poverty. In addition to assisting in these sectors, school meal programs are tasked with creating food systems that assist smallholder farmers, an endeavor that has yet to be extensively studied. This review examines the latest evidence on these evolving dimensions of school meal programs. Findings suggest that while there is a strong evidence base for school meals, there are also specific gaps in the evidence of effectiveness and a particular lack of clarity around costs. The country-led School Meals Coalition, developed in response to COVID pandemic-related school closures, has brought new momentum to national programs and new urgency for reliable evidence on effectiveness and costs.

Can participation in agricultural programmes improve youth agribusiness performance? Insights from the Enable Programme in East Africa

This study addresses the gap in understanding the impact of agribusiness empowerment programmes on youth business performance in developing countries, taking the case of the ENABLE-TAAT programme in Kenya and Uganda. A multistage sampling technique was used in obtaining primary agribusiness-level data from a sample of 1003 young agripreneurs from the study countries. An Endogenous Treatment Effect Regression (ETER) model was used to identify factors influencing programme participation and impact on youth agribusiness performance. Results show that marital status, agribusiness experience, asset value, credit access, residence, prior programme awareness, and perception were the key determinants of participation. The ETER results chow that participation in the programme significantly increased youth’s agribusiness income by 7 percent and food security by 76 percent, with participants having higher asset value than non-participants. Based on these findings, we suggest policy interventions or programmes focusing on youth agribusiness empowerment, particularly those that target young actors along different agricultural value chains. We also suggest interventions geared towards mitigating constraints to credit access by young agripreneurs to ease barriers to working capital and business innovation. To increase access and participation, we recommend strategies to improve youth perception and raise awareness of these programmes. JEL Codes: J000, J430, Q190

The causal effect of early marriage on women’s bargaining power: Evidence from Bangladesh

Early marriage restrains women’s agency and bargaining strength in postmarital households, impairing their ability to make meaningful contributions to household decision making. This paper employs a comprehensive measure of women’s empowerment in the domestic and productive spheres, and isolates the causal effect of age at marriage, instrumented by age at menarche, on their bargaining strength, using nationally representative data from Bangladesh. Results suggest that delayed marriages result in significantly higher empowerment scores and probability of being empowered for women, because of higher likelihood in achieving adequacy in their autonomy in agricultural production, control over income, ownership of assets and rights in those assets, and ability to speak in public. Favorable impacts of delayed marriage are also found on women’s freedom of mobility, fertility choices, and their ability to decide on household expenses and investments, with the impacts likely coming via improvements in education and labor market outcomes when women married later.

Emerging outsource agricultural services enable farmer adaptation in agrifood value chains: A product cycle perspective

Outsource agricultural service enterprises emerged a century ago in high-income countries and in the past several decades in developing regions. We contribute by analyzing and illustrating the emergence of these services from the perspective of phases of the Product Cycle. These services help farmers adapt to international and domestic agrifood value chains: (1) in the commoditization phase, e.g., with rice combine harvesting services in China and Myanmar for domestic and export markets; (2) in the early product differentiation phase into quality traits, e.g., with horticultural services to Ethiopian and Indonesian farmers for urban wholesale markets; (3) in the advanced product differentiation phase into environmental traits, e.g., with A-Z services to help French farmers grow eco-labeled vegetables for supermarkets. These services addressed farmers’ shortfalls in information, skills, labor, and equipment. The services are supplied by medium/large farmers with excess capacity say of a combine; by wholesalers who want to reduce search costs and risks; by input “agro-dealers”; and by agribusinesses servicing their outgrowers. In new cases shown in France, outsource firms partner with farm input companies such as Bayer or with robot/drone companies. Governments have – and can do much more to – support the emergence of these services such as in developing regions today through: (1) promotion of a business ecosystem, based on policies of investment in hard and soft infrastructure, favoring the coadaptation of these firms with farmers’ needs; (2) policies facilitating access, such as through import liberalization, of equipment and seeds and chemicals.

Feeding minds, fueling futures: How School Feeding Programs (SFP) drive development in low-Income nations like Ethiopia

Ethiopian households face daunting challenges due to inflation, conflict, drought, climate change, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite significant socio-economic growth, the country remains highly susceptible to climate-induced shocks, compounded by destructive conflicts and persistent insecurity (1). Ethiopia is one of the most impacted countries in the world regarding food security, with up to 20 million (16% of the population) suffering from severe food insecurity (2,3). Many children are dropping out of school due to hunger (3). This predicament is exacerbated by students’ inability to concentrate or attend class, either due to hunger or familial obligations to seek food.

Papua New Guinea rural household survey (2023): Synopsis of selected results

From May to December 2023, IFPRI implemented the 2023 PNG Rural Household Survey which was designed to understand rural livelihoods and welfare across different areas of PNG (Schmidt et al., 2024). Given the rural nature of the survey sample, almost all surveyed households depend on their own-farm production (predominantly starchy roots and tubers) to meet daily caloric needs. On average, households reported utilizing about 1.6 hectares of land for agriculture cultivation at the time of the survey. The survey collected a detailed account of the quantity of food types consumed by the household in order to estimate the average caloric intake per adult equivalent. Comparing the estimated caloric intake reported by surveyed households, with a recommended calorie intake suggests that only 45 per cent of individuals in surveyed households meet the recommended daily caloric intake for a lightly active individual. The survey also collected anthropometry data for children under five years of age and found that 36 percent of surveyed children were stunted in their growth. The 2023 Rural Household Survey represents an important effort in collecting a wide breadth of information about rural livelihoods. However, greater investments of in-depth data collection and analysis should be undertaken to examine specific components of PNG household livelihood strategies.

From bargaining power to empowerment: Measuring the unmeasurable

Measuring power is central to empirical work on intrahousehold and gender relations. Early efforts to test household models focused on measuring spousal bargaining power, usually in models featuring two decisionmakers within the household. Proxy measures for bargaining power included age, education, assets, and “outside options” that could affect spouses’ threat points within marriage. Evidence rejecting the collective model of the household has influenced the design of policies and programs, notably conditional cash transfer programs. Efforts have since shifted to measuring empowerment, drawing on theories of agency and power. Since 2010, several measures of women’s empowerment have been developed, including the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) and its variants. A distinct feature of the WEAI, like other counting-based measures, is its decomposability into its component indicators, which makes identifying sources of disempowerment possible. The WEAI indicators also embody jointness of decision-making or ownership, which better reflects actual decision-making within households compared to 2-person bargaining models. This paper reviews how progress in the measurement of power within households has facilitated our understanding of household decision-making and creates new opportunities for programs and policy. JEL Codes: D13, J16, I38

Rural electrification and the changing energy irrigation nexus in Bihar

Over the past few decades Agricultural irrigation in South Asia has emerged to be dominantly groundwater sourced. The size and structure of a region’s groundwater economy is closely intertwined with its energy economy. Until only a few years ago, diesel was the main source of energy for groundwater irrigation in the region while farmers in the rest of South Asia had access to subsidized or free electricity to operate their pumps. With rapid improvements in rural energy supply, this energy-divide is now disappearing. This has potential to change the area’s groundwater energy nexus. Farmers in Bihar, a populous state of India, have installed more than 200 thousand electric pumps for irrigation since 2015. We use data from a representative sample of 1440 farmers from the state to assess the pattern of electrification of groundwater irrigation and its impact on pump ownership, water markets, and water use in agriculture. Electrification of irrigation is skewed towards west and south Bihar. On average, electric pump owners have smaller landholdings than diesel pump owners and they charge significantly lower irrigation fees from water buyers. However, three out of four pump owners report not selling water from their pumps. Farmers using electric pumps—owned or rented—irrigate their crops more intensively and have higher cropping intensity. Near free electricity for irrigation may undermine the fiscal and environmental sustainability of the irrigation led agricultural growth in Bihar.

Papua New Guinea food price bulletin: July 2024

This bulletin provides an overview of select food prices during the second quarter of 2024, from April to June. During this quarter, two rounds of data were collected per month across all markets, except for Goroka in April and Lae in May, where only one round of data was collected. The prices presented here are the monthly averages. The graphs in this bulletin show price changes within the second quarter and compare second quarter prices with the first quarter of 2024, between January and March. To access the complete food price dataset, please download it from our website.

Papua New Guinea Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Policy Support Program

In Papua New Guinea (PNG), more than 80 percent of the population depends on agriculture for their livelihoods, with a vast majority working as smallholder farmers. Recognizing the need to revitalize and transform its agriculture sector, PNG’s government has set ambitious growth targets for agricultural exports and domestic agricultural production. It considers strategic investment in agricultural research and food security fundamental to overall economic growth and structural transformation. The Papua New Guinea Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Policy Support Program (PNG-AFNP), supported by the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) through the Australian High Commission (AHC) in Port Moresby, and the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR), will support PNG’s forward-looking strategy for economic growth and transformation through data-driven policy analysis, capability development, and strategic partnerships to inform policy dialogue and investment opportunities.

Addressing food system transformation, food security, and deforestation in Indonesia: Challenges and opportunities

This study identifies food system interventions with high transformational potential for Indonesia by utilizing the MIRAGRODEP a multi-region, multisector computable general equilibrium model to analyze policy scenarios. Our findings reveal a range of economic, social, and environmental impacts. Initiatives such as social safety nets and food stamps can enhance affordability, while repurposing farm subsidies can improve socio-economic sustainability. Comprehensive policy packages that include social safety nets, repurposing agricultural supports, environmental regulation and investment in sustainable production, can lead to substantial GDP growth, poverty reduction, and dietary enhancements. However, each intervention presents distinct trade-offs between economic gains and environmental implications. This analysis underscores the need for a holistic policy approach when trying to achieve multiple sustainability goals. Implementing a blend of policies designed to promote environmental, social, and economic sustainability simultaneously could drive Indonesia towards a sustainable and resilient food system, addressing the complex interplay between economic development, environmental conservation, and improved nutrition.

Quality upgrading in dairy value chains: Mixed methods evidence from southwestern Uganda

Quality upgrading may be lagging in value chains where the assessment and traceability of the quality of the underlying commodity is challenging. In Uganda’s southwestern milk shed, a variety of initiatives are trying to increase the quality of raw milk in dairy value chains. These initiatives generally involve the introduction of technologies that enable measurement of key quality parameters at strategic nodes in the value chain, in conjunction with a system that allows for tracking of these parameters throughout the supply chain. In this paper, we use a combination of focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and quantitative data that is generated by these initiatives to document outputs, describe emerging outcomes, and reflect on the potential impact. We find clear evidence that milk quality improved, but the effects on milk prices are more subtle.

Women’s Empowerment in Agricultural Governance (WEAGov) technical workshop: India pilot study

Gender Equality research initiative Gender Equality (HER+) is a One CGIAR Research Initiative seeking to address the following four dimensions of gender inequality in agrifood systems: o Women’s lack of agency or limited ability to define and act on goals, make decisions that matter to them, and participate in the economy and in public life; o Women’s lack of access to and control over resources; o Social norms that discriminate based on gender; and o Policies and governance that fail to include and benefit women. HER+ uses impactful gender research to address the four dimensions of gender inequality by applying gender-transformative approaches to address harmful norms. It does this by bundling innovations for women’s empowerment, leveraging social protection to increase women’s access to and control over resources, and promoting inclusive governance and policies for increased resilience. HER+ will generate learning and evidence on levers and entry points to disrupt the foundations of inequality in agrifood systems (AFS).

IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, June 2024

The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi with the goal of providing clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. The reports are intended as a resource for those interested in maize markets in Malawi, namely producers, traders, consumers, policy makers, and other agricultural stakeholders.

Sustained underweight in rural areas and emergence of overweight in urban Ethiopian women: A multivariate analysis of EDHS data 2000–2016

A growing body of evidence indicates the emergence of overweight/obesity in developing countries before the battle against undernutrition has been won. We conducted this study to quantify the reduction of underweight and the emergence of overweight among Ethiopian women from 2000 to 2016 and evaluate factors explaining the progress. We used the four Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys (2000–2016) to analyze body mass index (BMI) trends among women. Data from 43,815 non-pregnant, non-puerperal reproductive-age women was used to evaluate the linear change in BMI and changes in the percentage of overweight and underweight over time. Using multivariate decomposition analysis of change in underweight and overweight percentages, we identified sources of change in BMI in the past 16 years of the survey periods. The BMI of Ethiopian reproductive-age women increased by 0.88 kg/m2 from 2000 to 2016. The increment was pronounced in urban areas with 1.46 kg/m2. There has been a significant reduction in underweight women since 2000 (p-value < 0.001), and 87.62% of the changes were attributed to behavioral changes toward weight management. And there was a significant upswing in overweight women from 2000 to 2016 (p-value < 0.001) as well. A compositional change of factors including region, women’s age, women’s educational status, religion, type of place of residence, and use of contraceptives contributed to 57.51% of the observed increment in the percentage of overweight women. A relatively slow decrease in underweight and an increment in overweight have been observed. This progress can be disaggregated into persistent underweight in the rural and poorest, and swift development of overweight in the urban and richest communities. Targeted nutrition interventions for both underweight and overweight women are mandatory. Nutritional interventions in Ethiopia should focus on behavioral change to reduce hunger and malnutrition as well as to avert the emergence of overweight or obesity in the affected communities.

The effectiveness of cash and cash plus interventions on livelihoods outcomes: Evidence from a systematic review and meta-analysis

Cash transfer programs have become increasingly popular tools for fighting chronic poverty and food insecurity in lowand middle-income countries (Fiszbein and Schady, 2009; USAID, 2022; WFP, 2023). Cash transfers offer recipients flexibility by permitting them to finance immediate consumption needs or to increase future income streams through investments and savings. Moreover, these programs are generally feasible to implement and scale across diverse contexts. While studies consistently show cash transfers effectively reduce poverty in the short term, the evidence on their long-term impact is less clear.

Biofortification: Conventional plant breeding to increase the nutrient density of commonly consumed staple foods

Geospatial variation in dietary patterns and their association with heart disease in Bangladeshi population: Evidence from a nationwide survey

Heart disease is a significant public health threat, and its burden is increasing worldwide. Recent evidence suggests that dietary pattern is a key modifiable factor for heart disease. Research regarding dietary patterns and heart disease in Bangladesh with their spatial variability is limited. In this study, the spatial variation and relationship between dietary patterns and heart disease among Bangladeshi people was investigated. The country-representative Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2016 dataset was used, and a total of 77,207 participants aged 30 years and over were included. A principal component analysis was conducted to derive the dietary patterns. Both statistical and spatial analyses were performed. The overall prevalence of heart disease was 3.6%, with a variation of 0.6% to 10.4% across districts of Bangladesh. Three major dietary patterns, named “festival pattern”, “pickles and fast foods pattern”, and “rice and vegetable pattern” were identified, accounting for 25.2% of the total dietary variance. Both the dietary pattern and heart disease rate varied across the region. A higher risk of heart disease was persistent in the western-south, southern, central, and eastern regions, as was greater adherence to the “festival pattern” and “pickles and fast foods pattern.” After adjusting for confounders, participants with the highest adherence to the “rice and vegetable pattern” were associated with a lower likelihood of developing heart disease (AOR: 0.78, 95% CI: 0.64–0.95, p <0.05), while the highest adherence to the "pickles and fast foods pattern" was associated with a higher likelihood of developing heart disease (AOR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.27–1.76, p <0.001). The spatial disparities in the prevalence of heart disease and dietary patterns underscore the significance of prioritizing intervention at the district level, especially in the western-south, southern, central, and eastern regions, to control the rising heart disease trends in Bangladesh.

Climate smart agriculture and food systems that reduce poverty and hunger

Poor communities that rely on functioning food systems for their livelihoods are highly vulnerable to the devastating effects of climate change while agri-food systems are significant emitters of greenhouse gases. This chapter reviews opportunities to scale up innovative technology and practices to transform food systems and to leverage climate action to reduce poverty, hunger and malnutrition in line with the complementary Sustainable Development Goals. Drawing on country experiences – India, Tajikistan, Lao People’s Democratic Republic and Myanmar – with integrated strategies, it looks at how climate strategies such as nationally determined contributions can be aligned with national agricultural and antipoverty strategies; the need for multisector and multistakeholder action and participation; challenges to joint financing for climate action, poverty and hunger goals; and adapting government and donor systems to co-ordinate implementation.

Nature-Positive Solutions initiative baseline evaluation survey report: Kenya

Conventional agriculture, while providing mass-scale production of cheap and plentiful food, has extracted a massive toll on both the environment and humans. On the one hand, industrial agriculture drives 80 percent of deforestation, threatens 86 percent of the 28,000 species currently at risk of extinction (through habitat conversion and pollution), is responsible for significant loss of crop and genetic diversity and up to 37 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE), accelerates land degradation and land-use change, and uses 70 percent of global water resources withdrawn. On the other hand, it has reduced nutrition outcomes for families and farming incomes due to impoverished soil and water health, reduced crop resistance to pests and diseases, and poor waste management. This unsustainable food production toll is further exacerbated by misaligned public policies and economic incentives. There is an urgent need to shift to more resilient farming systems capable of supporting smallholder farmers and ensuring that agriculture is a net positive contributor to nature. In 2021 the United Nations Food Systems Summit formally recognized nature-positive production as one of five critical pathways to sustainable food systems (Von Braun et al. 2023).

Nature-Positive Solutions initiative baseline evaluation survey report: Vietnam

The report’s main objective is to describe socio-economic conditions and agricultural systems in the survey areas. It provides a baseline assessment characterizing the main agricultural and socioeconomic challenges within the surveyed localities, and to inform the array of research interventions currently underway. Furthermore, the study will provide a baseline for estimating the impacts of NATURE+ (including waste management, water management, development or a resilient seed system, development of value chains for neglected and underutilized species, participatory varietal selection, encouragement of designs for increasing agrobiodiversity, etc.) on inclusion, poverty reduction, as well as on food security, livelihoods, and jobs. The report is structured as follows: Section 2 presents detailed information on the survey design, its coverage and implementation. Sections 3 and 4 discuss the main analytical results of the report, separately for the household and the workers survey, respectively. Finally, section 5 concludes.

Foresight for food markets: Developing and implementing market forecasting methods/models

The “Foresight for Food Markets: Developing and Implementing Market Forecasting Methods/Models with Hands-on Training at the FPMU” is an element of Integrated Food Policy Research Program (IFPRP). Originally signed in 2016 between the Government of Bangladesh (GoB) and the Joint Venture (JV) comprising the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), the Bangladesh Institute of the Development Studies (BIDS), and the University of Illinois, IFPRP was extended and modified in subsequent periods. The most recent updated contract between the GoB and the JV was signed in mid-2022. Deliverable 4.3, Foresight for Food Markets: Developing and Implementing Market Forecasting Methods/Models with Hands-on Training at the FPMU is one of the new deliverables included in the updated contract. Rising prices of essential commodities affect consumer welfare and pose a serious challenge to the Government of Bangladesh. Knowing prices of essentials in advance would allow the government to take necessary measures to restrain the extent of price increases or to mitigate effects of rising prices; such measures could include provisions of direct distributions of rice and wheat through social safety net programs or of subsidized open market sales on the one hand and engaging in direct imports of essentials or easing import restrictions for the private sector, on the other. Because price fluctuations are a feature of a free market, there is a persistent need for the government to be able to project consumer prices in advance. Accordingly, it is important that in addition to receiving estimates prepared by external experts, the government has the ability to obtain its own price projections; the government should have the estimates when it needs them and for commodities for which such information is needed. Against this backdrop, IFPRP is providing hands-on training on price projection techniques to officials from the Food Planning and Monitoring Unit (FPMU), the Directorate General of Food (DG Food), and the Ministry of Food (MoFood). It is envisioned that trained officials from the DG Food, the Ministry of Food, and mostly from the FPMU will produce price projection estimates on their own with IFPRP personnel helping a consultative capacity.

Implementation of paddy drying technology: Introducing small/medium paddy dryers in remote areas

Grain drying has become increasingly challenging for the Bangladesh food system as postharvest innovations have not kept pace with production growth and an increasing volume of grain is harvested during wet or foggy periods, when conventional open-air drying is problematic. This activity sought to build capacity for mechanical dryer service provision by small-scale entrepreneurs and to demonstrate a model for providing mobile grain drying services through entrepreneurs using a locally manufactured small-scale dryer. In coordination with Ministry of Food officials, the project selected 20 farmers to train as mechanized drying service providers, provided them with use of small-scale mobile batch dryers, and deployed them in rural areas from which Local Supply Depots (LSDs) source grain. The service providers were active in Bogura and Rangpur Districts in late May 2023, during the closing phases of the Boro harvest season. The pilot revealed nuances of the costs of operation and indicated potential for viable business activities, especially in areas where open-air drying is relatively costly or inadequately available. Additionally, a scoping visit to Naogaon District revealed significant interest in mechanized drying services. The findings suggest a value to additional observation of the service providers to document capacity utilization over an Aman season and a full Boro season. Such observations would allow confirmation about parameters related to annual capacity utilization which are important determinants of business viability

Feasibility of nationwide warehouse receipt system: An assessment of the potential for a nationwide warehouse receipt system and recommendation for the requisite legal and regulatory framework

Warehouse receipts systems (WRS) have been used to tackle multiple challenges faced by farmers. In the absence of adequate collateral and consequent credit constraints, a WRS enables the use of inventory as collateral for loans, thus removing a key constraint farmers face. With growing digital reach, electronic based Negotiable Warehouse Receipts (e-NWR) that can be swapped, exchanged and traded and can assist in deepening financial markets while maintaining the integrity of the system. While e-NWRS can potentially address farmer level constraints, they can also be viewed from a larger policy perspective as a system that aids government plans for food security and manage public procurement operations better and more nimbly; it can also play a key role for enhancing the efficiency and food quality and safety along value chains by enabling mid-stream players like traders and importers to manage these chains better. This report seeks to inform the policy process around e-NWRS by focusing on the potential of Ware house Receipt Financing, more broadly, in the agricultural development of Bangladesh. To do this we review global evidence as well as evidence closer to home, within South Asia, to understand the pre-conditions and prerequisites for a successful system.

Diagnostic study of DG Food: An assessment of DG Food’s current mandates, performance, and capacity gaps, and a remedial program to strengthen the agency

This study conducts an assessment of the current mandates, performance, and capacity gaps of the Directorate General of Food (DG Food) and suggests remedies to strengthen the agency. Formed originally as the Supply Department in undivided Bengal under British rule in the early 1940s, the organization was named the Directorate General of Food by the provincial government of East Pakistan in 1956. Upon the independence of Bangladesh in 1971, DG Food became a part of the Ministry of Food and Civil Supplies and was later renamed as the Directorate General of Food in 1975. The last major reorganization of the agency took place in 1984. The current mandates and organogram are from 1984. As the custodian of the Public Food Distribution System (PFDS), DG Food plays an important role for the Government of Bangladesh (GoB). Under the Social Safety Net Programs (SSNP) of the GoB, DG Food ensures food security for vulnerable populations. In its sprawling countrywide network of 650-plus traditional warehouses, DG Food has an effective storage capacity of 1.9 million tons. In recent years, DG Food has procured and distributed approximately 3.0 million tons of foodgrains per year. A very large organization, DG Food has a sanctioned workforce of over 13,000 officers and employees, and an annual budget of approximately 1.5 billion U.S. dollars.

Introduction and executive summary for the supplement micronutrients in Latin America: Current state and research

Global health and nutrition stakeholders are facing a period full of changes and challenges, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Almost every country is experiencing at least, one burden of malnutrition,1 and among them many are facing the triple burden of malnutrition, both associated with unhealthy and nondiverse diets and reduced physical activity. According to the State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World Report, in 2022, between 691 and 783 million people faced chronic hunger, representing an increase of 122 million people compared to 2019. It also informed that 3.1 billion people could not afford a healthy diet.2 On the one hand, economic shocks, war, violence, and climate-related disruptions are the leading causes of the current steep increase in the global burden of hunger in all its forms. The COVID-19 pandemic and other repeated pandemic shocks further reduce food and nutrition security of poor countries.3 On the other hand, chronic noncommunicable diseases, most of which are associated with overweight-obesity and unhealthy behavioral and environmental risk factors, continue to rise as the principal causes of death and disability worldwide, also disproportionately impacting LMIC.4 While the prevalence of hunger in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is lower than the global average, food insecurity affects a higher proportion of the population in the region (40%) relative to the global prevalence (29.3%). The region also experiences the highest cost of a healthy diet, with 131 million people unable to afford to meet the recommended nutritional requirements that healthy diets would provide.5-7 Consequently, the risks of nutrient deficiency and excess for the region can be inferred, but the scarcity of current nationally representative data on micronutrient deficiencies is neither useful for program planning or evaluation nor conducive to narrowing the equity and justice gaps in the region.

Private investments in modern food storage: An economic feasibility analysis for private investments in modern food storage and potential public sector roles in promoting such investments

Unprecedented growth in rice production in Bangladesh over the last four decades has outpaced the capacity of post-harvest operations, resulting in substantial grain losses. While production technology has changed dramatically over time, there has been relatively little private investment in transforming storage capacity in the country. This paper explores the lack of widespread private investment in improved grain storage and examines the potential for public support to stimulate greater private sector investment in modern storage. We calculate the returns to investment in bulk grain silos and hermetic cocoons that could upgrade warehouse storage, and calculate the grain loss that conversion to those technologies would prevent. We then assess the public support that would be required to trigger private investment in modern storage systems. Our analysis shows that storage in jute bags in warehouses or homes outperforms the modern technologies in terms of financial returns at observed prices. Our analysis further shows that given the observed price changes during the harvest and post-harvest periods from 2008 to 2018, cocoon and silo storage as well as conventional warehouse storage were unprofitable in most years and on average overall. Although seasonal variation in market prices for paddy is sometimes pronounced, the pattern of the variation is not sufficiently large or consistent to make paddy storage reliably profitable. Conventional warehouse storage implied an average loss of BDT 2,877/MT/season over the 20 seasons considered. Use of modern storage methods would have implied average losses of BDT 3,200/MT/season to BDT 4,950/MT/season, depending on technology used. These results imply that a public sector co-investment on the order of BDT 300/MT would be required to trigger a shift from conventional to modern storage by traders or millers. This shift would imply a reduction in grain loss of 30kg to 80kg per MT stored for a public cost of BDT 3.75 to BDT 10.00 per kilogram of loss avoided. To make it profitable for intermediaries to provide commercial storage services to farmers who currently store on-farm would require a much larger co-investment of about BDT 3,200/MT stored, implying BDT 40 to BDT 106 per kilogram of loss avoided. Removal of import tariffs on storage technologies or realization of a price premium for silo-stored or hermetically stored grain could be sufficient to encourage millers to adopt modern storage, but would be inadequate to trigger increased off-farm storage as an independent activity. There is anecdotal evidence of a price premium for paddy that has been stored using improved technology. Existence of such a premium could significantly reduce public support needed to trigger private investment in improved storage.