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Who we are

With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

Erick Boy

Erick Boy

Erick Boy is the Chief Nutritionist in the HarvestPlus section of the Innovation Policy and Scaling Unit. As head of nutrition for the HarvestPlus Program since 2008, he has led research that has generated scientific evidence on biofortified staple crops as efficacious and effective interventions to help address iron, vitamin A, and zinc deficiency in sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and South Asia.

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What we do

Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

Where we work

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Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

Publications and Datasets

IFPRI publications provide evidence-based insights and analysis on critical issues related to policies for food systems, food security, agriculture, diets and nutrition, poverty, and sustainability, helping to inform effective policies and strategies. Materials published by IFPRI are released under a Creative Commons license, and are available for download. IFPRI authors also publish in external sources, such as academic journals and books. Where possible we provide a download link for the full text of these publications.

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By Title By Author By Country/Region By Keyword

Book

What do we know about the future of food systems?

2025Wiebe, Keith D.; Gotor, Elisabetta

What do we know about the future of food systems?

Food systems have achieved remarkable progress in recent decades, but moving forward, they will face significant challenges in delivering the many outputs and services we expect and need. This book presents a collection of short chapters on the current state of knowledge about different aspects of the future of food systems, written by a diverse group of scientists from around the world with expertise in a wide range of related disciplines and regions. Each chapter examines a particular aspect of food systems, describes recent trends and challenges that highlight the importance of the topic, summarizes the latest available foresight research on that topic, and identifies key gaps in existing foresight research that merit further attention. In a world of complexity and uncertainty, the goal of this book — and the purpose of foresight analysis, more generally — is not to predict the future with precision, but rather to carefully consider and present what can be known about possible future pathways in order to inform choices today. The collection includes 15 chapters focused on major drivers and impacts of change in food systems, 11 chapters that provide regional and national perspectives on the future of food systems, 7 chapters on the future of major food commodities, and 3 chapters on food systems measurement and modeling tools. The contributors come from across CGIAR and many other partner research institutions around the world. This collection was begun as part of the CGIAR Research Initiative on Foresight during the 2022–2024 period and completed as part of the ongoing area of work on foresight and prioritization under the CGIAR Science Program on Policy Innovations.

Year published

2025

Authors

Wiebe, Keith D.; Gotor, Elisabetta

Citation

Wiebe, Keith D.; and Gotor, Elisabetta. 2025. What do we know about the future of food systems? Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175019

Keywords

Food Systems; Forecasting; Natural Resources; Policies; Uncertainty

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book

Journal Article

How much do our neighbors really know? The limits of community-based targeting

2026Trachtman, Carly; Permana, Yudistira Hendra; Sahadewo, Gumilang Aryo

How much do our neighbors really know? The limits of community-based targeting

Social assistance programs in developing countries often rely on local community members to identify potential beneficiaries. As community members may observe neighbors’ welfare, their reports may capture transitory shocks better than the proxies typically observable by a centralized policy implementer. To test this, we conduct a lab-style experiment in Central Java, in which participants rank other community members’ welfare, using benchmarks that vary in sensitivity to transitory shocks, and target small cash transfers. We find little evidence that community-held welfare information better reflects transitory shocks and find that targeting decisions mostly depend on perceived differences in overall wealth. JEL Codes: O12, I32, D83

Year published

2026

Authors

Trachtman, Carly; Permana, Yudistira Hendra; Sahadewo, Gumilang Aryo

Citation

Trachtman, Carly; Permana, Yudistira Hendra; and Sahadewo, Gumilang Aryo. 2025. How much do our neighbors really know? The limits of community-based targeting. Journal of Development Economics 178(January 2026): 103555. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103555

Country/Region

Indonesia

Keywords

Asia; South-eastern Asia; Oceania; Community Development; Policy Innovation; Poverty; Targeting

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Record type

Journal Article

Journal Article

Policy and regulation in seed sector development for vegetatively propagated crops: Insights from Kenya, Nigeria, and Vietnam

2025Spielman, David J.; Gatto, Marcel; Wossen, Tesfamicheal; McEwan, Margaret; Abdoulaye, Tahirou; Maredia, Mywish K.; Hareau, Guy

Policy and regulation in seed sector development for vegetatively propagated crops: Insights from Kenya, Nigeria, and Vietnam

Context In many low- and middle-income countries, smallholder farmers cultivating vegetatively propagated crops (VPCs) have limited access to quality planting material. This constraint can limit both the yield and returns to VPC cultivation. Yet policy and regulations designed to strengthen access to quality VPC planting materials and scale innovative programs that deliver these materials have been relatively unsuccessful to date. Part of the problem lies the unique biological and economic characteristics of vegetative propagation and its distinctness from cereal crops that dominate narratives on seed sector reforms and the resulting policy and regulatory regimes. Objective The study analyzes both theory and evidence on existing and alternative models of regulation that may incentivize cost-effective multiplication and distribution in VPC seed systems and markets. Methods The study draws on case studies of policy and practice related to quality assurance regulations in four crop-country combinations: cassava in Nigeria and Vietnam, and potato in Kenya and Vietnam. The case studies rely on qualitative analysis that was conducted using a combination of key informant interviews, focus group discussions, analysis of regulatory documents, and analysis of publicly available secondary data. Results and conclusions The study describes five strategies for regulating VPC seed systems in our four crop-country combinations, each with its own generalizable costs and benefits. The application (or marginalization) of these strategies is often shaped by fluid coalitions of actors with competing interests and framing narratives, and driven by organizational innovations, technological opportunities, trade relationships, and crises that are crop- and country-specific. Significance These findings suggest that regulations designed around strict, centralized quality control systems tend to limit market size, while more localized production systems are limited by both capacity and reach. They also suggest the need for alternatives that balance a permissive regulatory regime with decentralized production systems, grassroots capacity development, market surveillance, and systems that integrate multiple approaches to quality assurance. A detailed set of policy recommendations follows from these findings that inform ongoing country efforts to revise VPC seed sector policies and regulations—reforms that are being pursued not only in the crop-country case studies highlighted here, but also in other countries in both Africa and Asia.

Year published

2025

Authors

Spielman, David J.; Gatto, Marcel; Wossen, Tesfamicheal; McEwan, Margaret; Abdoulaye, Tahirou; Maredia, Mywish K.; Hareau, Guy

Citation

Spielman, David J.; Gatto, Marcel; McEwan, Margaret; Abdoulaye, Tahirou; Maredia, Mywish K.; and Hareau, Guy. 2025. Policy and regulation in seed sector development for vegetatively propagated crops: Insights from Kenya, Nigeria, and Vietnam. Agricultural Systems 229(October 2025): 104441. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104441

Country/Region

Kenya; Nigeria; Vietnam

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Western Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Asia; South-eastern Asia; Policy Analysis; Regulations; Seed Systems; Quality Assurance

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Seed Equal

Record type

Journal Article


Explore Our Latest Publications

Important: This website search is limited to displaying the 100 most recent results to ensure optimal performance. For access to the complete archive of IFPRI publications and resources, please visit the IFPRI Institutional Repository at https://cgspace.cgiar.org/.

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Journal Article

The effect of teacher training and community literacy programming on teacher and student outcomes

2026Chimbutane, Feliciano; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Herrera-Almanza, Catalina; Leight, Jessica; Lauchande, Carlos
Details

The effect of teacher training and community literacy programming on teacher and student outcomes

Motivated by extremely low levels of basic reading skills in sub-Saharan Africa, we experimentally evaluate two interventions designed to enhance students’ early-grade literacy performance in rural Mozambique: a relatively light-touch, scalable teacher training in early-grade literacy including the provision of pedagogical materials, and teacher training and materials in conjunction with community-level reading camps. Using data from 1,596 third graders in 160 rural public primary schools, we find no evidence that either intervention improved teachers’ pedagogical knowledge or practices or student or teacher attendance following two years of implementation. There are some weak positive effects on student reading as measured by a literacy assessment, primarily observed in a shift away from scores of zero, and these effects are consistent across arms. Our findings are aligned with the growing consensus that more intensive school- and/or community-based interventions are required to meaningfully improve learning.

Year published

2026

Authors

Chimbutane, Feliciano; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Herrera-Almanza, Catalina; Leight, Jessica; Lauchande, Carlos

Citation

Chimbutane, Feliciano; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Herrera-Almanza, Catalina; Leight, Jessica; and Lauchande, Carlos. 2025. The effect of teacher training and community literacy programming on teacher and student outcomes. Journal of Development Economics 178(January 2026): 103578. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103578

Country/Region

Mozambique

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Education; Learning; Literacy; Teacher Training

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Record type

Journal Article

Journal Article

How much do our neighbors really know? The limits of community-based targeting

2026Trachtman, Carly; Permana, Yudistira Hendra; Sahadewo, Gumilang Aryo
Details

How much do our neighbors really know? The limits of community-based targeting

Social assistance programs in developing countries often rely on local community members to identify potential beneficiaries. As community members may observe neighbors’ welfare, their reports may capture transitory shocks better than the proxies typically observable by a centralized policy implementer. To test this, we conduct a lab-style experiment in Central Java, in which participants rank other community members’ welfare, using benchmarks that vary in sensitivity to transitory shocks, and target small cash transfers. We find little evidence that community-held welfare information better reflects transitory shocks and find that targeting decisions mostly depend on perceived differences in overall wealth. JEL Codes: O12, I32, D83

Year published

2026

Authors

Trachtman, Carly; Permana, Yudistira Hendra; Sahadewo, Gumilang Aryo

Citation

Trachtman, Carly; Permana, Yudistira Hendra; and Sahadewo, Gumilang Aryo. 2025. How much do our neighbors really know? The limits of community-based targeting. Journal of Development Economics 178(January 2026): 103555. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103555

Country/Region

Indonesia

Keywords

Asia; South-eastern Asia; Oceania; Community Development; Policy Innovation; Poverty; Targeting

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Record type

Journal Article

Journal Article

Whole maize flour could enhance food and nutrition security in Malawi

2025Ngoma, Theresa Nakoma; Taleon, Victor; Mvumi, Brighton M.; Gama, Aggrey P.; Palacios-Rojas, Natalia; Matumba, Limbikani
Details

Whole maize flour could enhance food and nutrition security in Malawi

Maize is the staple cereal in Malawi, with a daily per capita consumption of 383 g (dry matter basis), primarily consumed in the form of nsima, a thick porridge. We combined a milling experiment with focus group discussions (FGDs) to provide insights into mass and nutrient losses during maize grain dehulling and maize flour consumption patterns in rural Malawi. Milling batches (30 kg) of four maize grain varieties were dehulled at three abrasive disk dehullers under controlled conditions. The impact of maize variety and dehuller design on mass and nutrient losses during dehulling was statistically significant (p < 0.05), with a mean mass loss of 28.1 ± 5.7%, and nutrient losses of 9.8 ± 1.9% for protein, 61.7 ± 2.0% for zinc, and 47.7 ± 3.6% for iron. Six FGDs conducted in rural areas of Lilongwe District revealed a preference for refined flour due to convenience and cultural norms, despite the nutritional benefits of whole grain flour, which was recognized for its ability to provide satiety, particularly during periods of maize scarcity. Participants also highlighted switching between flour types based on seasonal maize availability, social stigma associated with whole grain flour, and awareness of nutrient losses during dehulling. Given Malawi’s precarious food insecurity situation, transitioning from dehulled maize flour nsima to whole maize flour or less refined nsima, is imperative. Our study findings can have food and nutritional savings for other southern Africa countries where the dehulling is a common practice.

Year published

2025

Authors

Ngoma, Theresa Nakoma; Taleon, Victor; Mvumi, Brighton M.; Gama, Aggrey P.; Palacios-Rojas, Natalia; Matumba, Limbikani

Citation

Ngoma, Theresa Nakoma; Taleon, Victor; Mvumi, Brighton M.; Gama, Aggrey P.; Palacios-Rojas, Natalia; and Matumba, Limbikani. 2025. Whole maize flour could enhance food and nutrition security in Malawi. Discover Food 5(1): 40. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44187-025-00311-y

Country/Region

Malawi

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Southern Africa; Maize; Maize Flour; Nutrition; Food Security; Milling; Food Losses

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Record type

Journal Article

Journal Article

Buyer-side gender discrimination in bargaining: Evidence from seed sales in Uganda

2025Van Campenhout, Bjorn; Nabwire, Leocardia
Details

Buyer-side gender discrimination in bargaining: Evidence from seed sales in Uganda

Year published

2025

Authors

Van Campenhout, Bjorn; Nabwire, Leocardia

Citation

Van Campenhout, Bjorn; and Nabwire, Leocardia. 2025. Buyer-side gender discrimination in bargaining: Evidence from seed sales in Uganda. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics 119(December 2025): 102404. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socec.2025.102404

Country/Region

Uganda

Keywords

Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Africa; Gender; Discrimination; Seeds; Bargaining Power

Language

English

Access/Licence

Limited Access

Project

Market Intelligence

Record type

Journal Article

Journal Article

Using a list experiment to measure intimate partner violence: Cautionary evidence from Ethiopia

2025Gilligan, Daniel O.; Hidrobo, Melissa; Leight, Jessica; Tambet, Heleene
Details

Using a list experiment to measure intimate partner violence: Cautionary evidence from Ethiopia

While indirect response methods are increasingly used in surveys to measure sensitive behaviours such as intimate partner violence, important questions persist around how respondents understand and react to these methods. This article presents evidence from a list experiment measuring multiple forms of intimate partner violence in rural Ethiopia. We find that the list experiment does not generate estimates of intimate partner violence that are higher than direct response questions; rather, prevalence estimates using the list experiment are lower vis-à-vis prevalence estimates using the direct reports, and are sometimes even negative. We provide suggestive evidence that this pattern may reflect ‘fleeing’ behaviour by respondents who do not wish to be associated with statements indicating their exposure to intimate partner violence.

Year published

2025

Authors

Gilligan, Daniel O.; Hidrobo, Melissa; Leight, Jessica; Tambet, Heleene

Citation

Gilligan, Daniel O.; Hidrobo, Melissa; Leight, Jessica; and Tambet, Heleene. 2025. Using a list experiment to measure intimate partner violence: Cautionary evidence from Ethiopia. Applied Economics Letters 32(11): 1594-1600. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2024.2308579

Country/Region

Ethiopia

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Domestic Violence; Behaviour; Measurement; Questionnaires

Language

English

Access/Licence

Limited Access

Project

Policies, Institutions, and Markets

Record type

Journal Article

Journal Article

Zinc distribution in structural components of high kernel‑zinc maize and its retention after milling

2025Taleon, Victor; Palacios-Rojas, Natalia; Dollah, Yusuf; Rosales, Aldo; Kalejaiye, Olatundun; Menkir, Abebe
Details

Zinc distribution in structural components of high kernel‑zinc maize and its retention after milling

High kernel‑zinc maize (HKZM) has the potential to contribute to addressing zinc deficiency in regions with high maize consumption, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, milling HKZM may lead to loss of zinc when removing the pericarp and embryo. This study evaluated the zinc distribution in kernel components of HKZM maize grown in different environments, and examined how milling affected its zinc concentration. The zinc concentration in HKZM lines was 27.0–30.7 μg g−1 while in conventional maize it was 19.5–22.6 μg g−1. Zinc in maize endosperm represented 20.5 to 28.2 % of the total kernel zinc while that in the embryo represented 68.1 to 75.7 %. HKZM retained 43 % of its kernel zinc after milling, resulting in flour with 5 μg g−1 higher zinc concentration compared to regular maize flour. Environmental factors had a significant effect on kernel zinc concentrations. Maize grain from commercial mills had 21 μg g−1 zinc, with zinc losses of 22 % to 65 % during milling, resulting in flours with 6–10 μg g−1 of zinc. While HKZM shows promise in alleviating zinc deficiency, its anticipated impact may be limited in regions where refined maize is frequently used for making foods. The development of maize varieties with higher zinc concentration in the endosperm, along with promoting increased consumption of less refined maize products can boost zinc intake for deficient populations.

Year published

2025

Authors

Taleon, Victor; Palacios-Rojas, Natalia; Dollah, Yusuf; Rosales, Aldo; Kalejaiye, Olatundun; Menkir, Abebe

Citation

Taleon, Victor; Palacios-Rojas, Natalia; Dollah, Yusuf; Rosales, Aldo; Kalejaiye, Olatundun; and Menkir, Abebe. 2025. Zinc distribution in structural components of high kernel‑zinc maize and its retention after milling. Food Research International 217(October 2025): 116830. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodres.2025.116830

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Zinc; Maize; Milling; Nutrient Deficiencies

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Record type

Journal Article

Journal Article

Gender-just mitigation in the agrifood systems sector: Potential and pitfalls

2025Nassif, Gabriella; Ringler, Claudia; Bryan, Elizabeth
Details

Gender-just mitigation in the agrifood systems sector: Potential and pitfalls

Mitigation action in agrifood systems is essential for addressing growing negative impacts from climate change. It remains unclear, however, to what extent mitigation in the agrifood systems space addresses gender inequalities and involves women as agents of climate action. This article reviews the literature to identify the main linkages between gender and mitigation in agrifood systems, examines the key barriers preventing women from equitably participating in and benefiting from mitigation actions in agrifood systems, and concludes with best practices to mainstream gender in mitigation actions in a substantive and sustainable way. Promising approaches include strengthening women’s land rights; supporting women’s economic empowerment through access to finance, information, and opportunities; and supporting women’s groups. JEL codes: Q10, Q18, Q20, Q24, Q54

Year published

2025

Authors

Nassif, Gabriella; Ringler, Claudia; Bryan, Elizabeth

Citation

Nassif, Gabriella; Ringler, Claudia; and Bryan, Elizabeth. Gender-just mitigation in the agrifood systems sector: Potential and pitfalls. Annual Review of Resource Economics. Article in press. First published online on June 18, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-112923-094228

Keywords

Gender; Climate Change Mitigation; Agrifood Systems; Women; Land Rights; Women’s Empowerment

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Record type

Journal Article

Journal Article

Looks matter? Field performance and farmers’ preferences for drought-tolerant maize in Kenya

2025Kramer, Berber; Wellenstein, Hailey; Waweru, Carol; Kivuva, Benjamin
Details

Looks matter? Field performance and farmers’ preferences for drought-tolerant maize in Kenya

Context To help farmers adapt to climate change, breeding programs have developed drought-tolerant (DT) maize varieties, but varietal turnover among smallholder farmers is slow. One possible reason for low adoption is that DT varieties produce higher yields than older hybrid maize varieties but are not visibly more drought tolerant, especially if morphology is a factor in farmers’ varietal choice. Objectives Motivated by this conjecture, our first objective is to compare the drought tolerance of a new hybrid DT maize variety and older varieties under farmer-managed conditions in terms of both morphology and yields. Our second objective is to analyze whether increasing farmers’ exposure to this variety increases their awareness of its DT traits and subsequent adoption. Methods We leverage a project that provided seed trial packs of a new DT maize variety to randomly selected farmers in seven counties in Kenya with varying rainfall conditions. Picture-based crop monitoring across two seasons yielded a novel panel dataset of 18,225 smartphone images labeled for drought damage, and, for a subsample of fields, yields. We use this dataset to compare the performance of promoted and commonly grown varieties. We then use exogenous variation in receiving trial packs to analyze how providing trial packs affects varietal preferences and adoption. Results and conclusion The promoted variety produces higher yields than other varieties. Under good conditions, it also appears visibly less damaged during the flowering stage, but morphological differences disappear under more severe moisture stress, and once the crop reaches maturity. Consistent with these observations, treatment farmers do not perceive this variety to be more drought tolerant than other varieties and are more likely to plant the promoted variety only when receiving a free trial pack. Significance It could be that limited visibility of DT traits hinders sustained adoption. Increasing adoption of DT varieties to enhance climate change adaptation in drought-prone regions may require facilitating prolonged learning and experimentation opportunities, increasing awareness of how DT traits manifest themselves in terms of yields and morphology under varying rainfall conditions, and, costs permitting, selecting for visible DT traits in plant breeding.

Year published

2025

Authors

Kramer, Berber; Wellenstein, Hailey; Waweru, Carol; Kivuva, Benjamin

Citation

Kramer, Berber; Wellenstein, Hailey; Waweru, Carol; and Kivuva, Benjamin. 2025. Looks matter? Field performance and farmers’ preferences for drought-tolerant maize in Kenya. Agricultural Systems 229(October 2025): 104434. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104434

Country/Region

Kenya

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Climate Change; Crop Monitoring; Drought Tolerance; Maize; Seed Systems; Smallholders; Technology Adoption

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Record type

Journal Article

Journal Article

Policy and regulation in seed sector development for vegetatively propagated crops: Insights from Kenya, Nigeria, and Vietnam

2025Spielman, David J.; Gatto, Marcel; Wossen, Tesfamicheal; McEwan, Margaret; Abdoulaye, Tahirou; Maredia, Mywish K.; Hareau, Guy
Details

Policy and regulation in seed sector development for vegetatively propagated crops: Insights from Kenya, Nigeria, and Vietnam

Context In many low- and middle-income countries, smallholder farmers cultivating vegetatively propagated crops (VPCs) have limited access to quality planting material. This constraint can limit both the yield and returns to VPC cultivation. Yet policy and regulations designed to strengthen access to quality VPC planting materials and scale innovative programs that deliver these materials have been relatively unsuccessful to date. Part of the problem lies the unique biological and economic characteristics of vegetative propagation and its distinctness from cereal crops that dominate narratives on seed sector reforms and the resulting policy and regulatory regimes. Objective The study analyzes both theory and evidence on existing and alternative models of regulation that may incentivize cost-effective multiplication and distribution in VPC seed systems and markets. Methods The study draws on case studies of policy and practice related to quality assurance regulations in four crop-country combinations: cassava in Nigeria and Vietnam, and potato in Kenya and Vietnam. The case studies rely on qualitative analysis that was conducted using a combination of key informant interviews, focus group discussions, analysis of regulatory documents, and analysis of publicly available secondary data. Results and conclusions The study describes five strategies for regulating VPC seed systems in our four crop-country combinations, each with its own generalizable costs and benefits. The application (or marginalization) of these strategies is often shaped by fluid coalitions of actors with competing interests and framing narratives, and driven by organizational innovations, technological opportunities, trade relationships, and crises that are crop- and country-specific. Significance These findings suggest that regulations designed around strict, centralized quality control systems tend to limit market size, while more localized production systems are limited by both capacity and reach. They also suggest the need for alternatives that balance a permissive regulatory regime with decentralized production systems, grassroots capacity development, market surveillance, and systems that integrate multiple approaches to quality assurance. A detailed set of policy recommendations follows from these findings that inform ongoing country efforts to revise VPC seed sector policies and regulations—reforms that are being pursued not only in the crop-country case studies highlighted here, but also in other countries in both Africa and Asia.

Year published

2025

Authors

Spielman, David J.; Gatto, Marcel; Wossen, Tesfamicheal; McEwan, Margaret; Abdoulaye, Tahirou; Maredia, Mywish K.; Hareau, Guy

Citation

Spielman, David J.; Gatto, Marcel; McEwan, Margaret; Abdoulaye, Tahirou; Maredia, Mywish K.; and Hareau, Guy. 2025. Policy and regulation in seed sector development for vegetatively propagated crops: Insights from Kenya, Nigeria, and Vietnam. Agricultural Systems 229(October 2025): 104441. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104441

Country/Region

Kenya; Nigeria; Vietnam

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Western Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Asia; South-eastern Asia; Policy Analysis; Regulations; Seed Systems; Quality Assurance

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Seed Equal

Record type

Journal Article

Journal Article

Social identity and crisis resilience in agriculture: Caste, gender, and migration in Nepal

2025Alvi, Muzna; Barooah, Prapti; Saini, Smriti; Kishore, Avinash
Details

Social identity and crisis resilience in agriculture: Caste, gender, and migration in Nepal

Capacity to weather economic shocks is often mediated by social identity, which in turn determines access to social, economic and physical capital. We study the repercussions of a large economic shock on access to agriculture inputs, agricultural extension, output markets, and the consequent effects on income and livelihoods in rural Nepal. We focus on heterogeneity by caste, gender, and household migration status, using panel survey data from 2300 maize farmers. We observe prolonged effects of the 2020 pandemic induced lockdowns on the incomes of farmers, driven in part by reduced remittances. The shock intensified inequalities in agriculture, especially for female farmers and farmers from disadvantaged caste groups. As the economic impacts of multiple crises continue, policy measures to support the agriculture sector should target disadvantaged farmers, while simultaneously implementing long term strategies to shield the agriculture sector from future shocks.

Year published

2025

Authors

Alvi, Muzna; Barooah, Prapti; Saini, Smriti; Kishore, Avinash

Citation

Alvi, Muzna; Barooah, Prapti; Saini, Smriti; and Kishore, Avinash. 2025. Social identity and crisis resilience in agriculture: Caste, gender, and migration in Nepal. Asia and Pacific Policy Studies 12(3): e70024. https://doi.org/10.1002/app5.70024

Country/Region

Nepal

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Agriculture; Economic Shock; Gender; Migration; Resilience

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Record type

Journal Article

Journal Article

The complex economics of a complete ban on child labor in the cobalt supply chain: The case of the DR Congo

2025Ulimwengu, John M.; Sanginga, Blandine
Details

The complex economics of a complete ban on child labor in the cobalt supply chain: The case of the DR Congo

Year published

2025

Authors

Ulimwengu, John M.; Sanginga, Blandine

Citation

Ulimwengu, John M.; and Sanginga, Blandine. 2025. The complex economics of a complete ban on child labor in the cobalt supply chain: The case of the DR Congo. Extractive Industries and Society 23(September 2025): 101687. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.exis.2025.101687

Keywords

Congo, Democratic Republic of; Africa; West and Central Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Child Labour; Cobalt; Economics; Mining; Poverty; Supply Chains

Language

English

Access/Licence

Limited Access

Record type

Journal Article

Journal Article

Traders and agri-food value chain resilience: The case of maize in Myanmar

2025Goeb, Joseph; San, Cho Cho; Belton, Ben; Synt, Nang Lun Kham; Aung, Nilar; Maredia, Mywish; Minten, Bart
Details

Traders and agri-food value chain resilience: The case of maize in Myanmar

Year published

2025

Authors

Goeb, Joseph; San, Cho Cho; Belton, Ben; Synt, Nang Lun Kham; Aung, Nilar; Maredia, Mywish; Minten, Bart

Citation

Goeb, Joseph; San, Cho Cho; Belton, Ben; Synt, Nang Lun Kham; Aung, Nilar; et al. 2025. Traders and agri-food value chain resilience: The case of maize in Myanmar. World Development Perspectives 39(September 2025): 100699. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wdp.2025.100699

Country/Region

Myanmar

Keywords

Asia; South-eastern Asia; Agricultural Value Chains; Resilience; Maize; Agricultural Prices

Language

English

Access/Licence

Limited Access

Record type

Journal Article

Journal Article

Private sector promotion of agricultural technologies: Experimental evidence from Nigeria

2025Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O.; Dillon, Andrew; Bloem, Jeffrey R.; Adjognon, Guigonan Serge
Details

Private sector promotion of agricultural technologies: Experimental evidence from Nigeria

Private sector agricultural businesses are critical for scaling new and potentially environmentally-friendly technologies, though much attention has focused on public agricultural investment. Working with a private firm, we conduct an experiment testing the effectiveness of alternative marketing strategies for promoting the adoption of urea super granule fertilizer (USG) among rice farmers in Nigeria. We disentangle the effects of price discount vouchers and the firm’s standard marketing package. We find that the firm’s standard marketing increases the adoption of USG fertilizer by 24 percentage points while reducing prilled urea utilization by 17 percentage points. Discount vouchers increase adoption of USG by an additional eight percentage points, but are not profitable for the firm. Although the adoption of USG leads to substantial environmental benefits by reducing nitrogen loss, farmer rice yields did not increase. Thus, despite the potential public benefits, private incentives facing firms and farmers are insufficient to drive scaling after a one-year intervention.

Year published

2025

Authors

Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O.; Dillon, Andrew; Bloem, Jeffrey R.; Adjognon, Guigonan Serge

Citation

Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O.; Dillon, Andrew; Bloem, Jeffrey R.; and Adjognon, Guigonan Serge. 2025. Private sector promotion of agricultural technologies: Experimental evidence from Nigeria. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 133(September 2025): 103201. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103201

Country/Region

Nigeria

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Western Africa; Technology Adoption; Private Sector; Nitrogen; Rice; Urea

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Record type

Journal Article

Journal Article

Herder-related violence, labor allocation, and the gendered response of agricultural households

2025Bloem, Jeffrey R.; Damon, Amy; Francis, David C.; Mitchell, Harrison
Details

Herder-related violence, labor allocation, and the gendered response of agricultural households

Violent conflict between nomadic herders and settled agricultural communities in Nigeria occurs as both groups clash over the use of land and natural resources, in part, due to a changing climate. We generate theory and evidence to study the labor responses of individuals within agricultural households to herder-related violence and consider a “shadow of violence” mechanism, whereby previous exposure to a violent event alters labor responses to a recent event. Using panel data from 2010 through 2019, we highlight how exposure to violence can lead to differing responses in the planting or harvest seasons and among men or women. In the planting season, among both men and women living in households with no previous exposure to herder-related violence, we find that exposure (i.e., singular exposure) leads to a reduction in household enterprise work, but among households with previous exposure experience, exposure (i.e., repeated exposure) leads to an increase in household enterprise work. Meanwhile, repeated exposure to herder-related violence reduces agricultural work among men only. This leads total hours worked to decline in response to singular exposure and to increase in response to repeated exposure especially among women. In the harvest season, we find that singular exposure increases agricultural work among both men and women, but repeated exposure reduces agricultural work among men only. JEL Codes: E26, E29, I31, Q12

Year published

2025

Authors

Bloem, Jeffrey R.; Damon, Amy; Francis, David C.; Mitchell, Harrison

Citation

Bloem, Jeffrey R.; Damon, Amy; Francis, David C.; and Mitchell, Harrison. 2025. Herder-related violence, labor allocation, and the gendered response of agricultural households. Journal of Development Economics 176(September 2025): 103512. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103512

Country/Region

Nigeria

Keywords

Africa; Northern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Western Africa; Agriculture; Conflicts; Gender; Households

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Project

Fragility, Conflict, and Migration

Record type

Journal Article

Journal Article

The agrifood-system wage gap and structural transformation: cross-country evidence

2025Benali, Marwan; Slavchevska, Vanya; Piedrahita, Natalia; Davis, Benjamin; Sitko, Nicholas; Azzarri, Carlo; Nico, Gianluigi; Le, Dung Thi; Kluth, Jessika
Details

The agrifood-system wage gap and structural transformation: cross-country evidence

Evidence from high income countries shows that the gender pay gap in wage employment has decreased over time, though it has not closed. However, little evidence exists on how the gender wage gap varies as countries undergo processes of structural transformation that lead to rising wages and a shift in employment from primary agricultural production. Disaggregating agricultural, agrifood-system and non-agrifood-system wage employment, this study provides empirical estimates of the gender pay gap across countries at different stages of structural transformation. Based on a multi-country dataset and using the Kitagawa-Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition approach, the study sheds light on the different factors driving the pay gap along the structural transformation process. Our analysis shows significant gender gaps in both agrifood systems and non-agrifood systems that do not always decrease with structural transformation. Both differences in female and male employee’s observed characteristics and differences in returns continue to contribute to gender gaps, suggesting the need for gender-responsive policies to address the underlying factors that drive these gaps.

Year published

2025

Authors

Benali, Marwan; Slavchevska, Vanya; Piedrahita, Natalia; Davis, Benjamin; Sitko, Nicholas; Azzarri, Carlo; Nico, Gianluigi; Le, Dung Thi; Kluth, Jessika

Citation

Benali, Marwan; Slavchevska, Vanya; Piedrahita, Natalia; Davis, Benjamin; Sitko, Nicholas; Azzarri, Carlo; et al. 2025. The agrifood-system wage gap and structural transformation: cross-country evidence. Global Food Security 46(September 2025): 100851. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100851

Keywords

Gender Inequality; Women; Remuneration; Agrifood Systems; Structural Adjustment

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Record type

Journal Article

Journal Article

Achieving transformational sustainable land Intensification: Integrated general equilibrium and portfolio analysis for Senegal

2025Pradesha, Angga; Siddig, Khalid; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James
Details

Achieving transformational sustainable land Intensification: Integrated general equilibrium and portfolio analysis for Senegal

Feeding a growing global population while conserving natural resources remains a central challenge of Sustainable Intensification (SI). Despite decades of SI efforts, cropland expansion in many developing countries continues to accelerate, contributing to deforestation and biodiversity loss. Even with observed increases in crop yields, studies suggest that farmers continue to expand cropland, underscoring the need to consider market dynamics and the economywide effects of productivity gains. This study offers a new perspective on achieving transformational sustainable land intensification by treating farming activities as investment decisions shaped by risk and return under production and markets uncertainties. Unlike the traditional SI strategies that focus on efficiency gains through improved inputs or agronomic practices, we apply an optimal portfolio analysis to cropland allocation, aiming to enhance farming efficiency by considering market interconnections across sectors. Using Senegal as a case study, we demonstrate that adopting an optimal diversification strategy on new cropland investment could reduce land expansion needs by up to 68 % by 2030. This strategy not only helps mitigate emissions and reduce water footprint but also enhances crop biodiversity. Socioeconomic and environmental benefits are found to be greater when the country promotes high-value crops in its portfolio, such as fruits and vegetables, compared to grain crops. Our findings also contribute to ongoing debates around land-sparing versus land-sharing strategies and offer new insights into the drivers of cropland expansion in light of current global land use patterns.

Year published

2025

Authors

Pradesha, Angga; Siddig, Khalid; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James

Citation

Pradesha, Angga; Siddig, Khalid; Pauw, Karl; and Thurlow, James. 2025. Achieving transformational sustainable land Intensification: Integrated general equilibrium and portfolio analysis for Senegal. Journal of Cleaner Production 519(10 August 2025): 145929. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2025.145929

Country/Region

Senegal

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Western Africa; Sustainable Intensification; Farmland; Land Allocation; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Modelling; Sustainability

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Journal Article

Journal Article

Profiling Chinese entrepreneurs

2025Huang, Qing; Wang, Ruixin; Xie, Yu; Zhang, Xiaobo
Details

Profiling Chinese entrepreneurs

Entrepreneurship has played a crucial role in China’s economic growth. However, research has predominantly focused on listed firms and state-owned enterprises, overlooking the vast number of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) due to data paucity. Limited knowledge exists on the characteristics of entrepreneurs, particularly those in the SME sector. This study aims to address this knowledge gap by profiling two types of Chinese entrepreneurs: self-employed and incorporated private business owners. The analysis utilizes data from two large surveys of entrepreneurs and salaried workers conducted in the same six provinces of China (N = 8948, comprising 3218 self-employed entrepreneurs, 1338 incorporated entrepreneurs, and 4392 salaried workers). The comparison reveals that self-employed entrepreneurs share more similarities with incorporated entrepreneurs than salaried workers in terms of key personality traits. Both groups of entrepreneurs exhibit higher risk tolerance, greater trust in others, and stronger interpersonal skills compared to their salaried counterparts. On the other hand, self-employed entrepreneurs align more closely with salaried workers in terms of human capital and family background than with incorporated entrepreneurs. The findings suggest that equalizing opportunities, particularly in education, could pave the way for self-employed entrepreneurs to transition into incorporated entrepreneurship.

Year published

2025

Authors

Huang, Qing; Wang, Ruixin; Xie, Yu; Zhang, Xiaobo

Citation

Huang, Qing; Wang, Ruixin; Xie, Yu; and Zhang, Xiaobo. 2025. Profiling Chinese entrepreneurs. China Economic Review 92(August 2025): 102443. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102443

Country/Region

China

Keywords

Asia; South-eastern Asia; Economic Growth; Entrepreneurship; Human Capital; Risk

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Record type

Journal Article

Journal Article

Women’s tenure security on collective lands: A conceptual framework

2025Meinzen-Dick, Ruth S.; Doss, Cheryl; Flintan, Fiona E.; Knight, Rachael; Larson, Anne M.; Monterroso, Iliana
Details

Women’s tenure security on collective lands: A conceptual framework

Within discussions of land and resource rights, there is growing attention to women’s rights, mostly in terms of household and individual rights to private property. This leaves unanswered questions about whether and how women’s land rights can be secured under collective tenure, upon which billions of people worldwide depend. There is an important gap in conceptual tools, empirical understanding, and policy recommendations on this topic. To address this gap and lay the foundations for a sound body of empirical studies and appropriate policies, we develop a conceptual framework to improve understanding of women’s land rights under collective tenure. We discuss what secure tenure for women on collective lands would entail, then what factors would affect women’s tenure security. We give attention to particularities of rangelands, forests, and other types of collective lands as well as commonalities across types. A key theme that emerges is that for women to have secure tenure under collective tenure, the collective (group) itself must have tenure security and the women must have secure rights within this collective. The latter requires us to consider the governance structures, how men and women access and control land, and the extent to which women have voice and power within the collective. More consistent analyses of collective tenure systems using the conceptual framework presented in this paper can help to identify which action resources are important for groups to secure rights to collective lands, and for women to advocate for their rights within the group.

Year published

2025

Authors

Meinzen-Dick, Ruth S.; Doss, Cheryl; Flintan, Fiona E.; Knight, Rachael; Larson, Anne M.; Monterroso, Iliana

Citation

Meinzen-Dick, Ruth S.; Doss, Cheryl; Flintan, Fiona; Knight, Rachael; Larson, Anne M.; and Monterroso, Iliana. 2025. Women’s tenure security on collective lands: A conceptual framework. Journal of Rural Studies 118 (August 2025): 103694. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2025.103694

Keywords

Common Property; Forests; Land Rights; Rangelands; Tenure Security; Women

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Livestock and Climate

Record type

Journal Article

Journal Article

A comparative study of the legal and regulatory dimension of seed sector development in Sub-Saharan Africa using regulatory systems maps: The case of Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Uganda

2025Kuhlmann, Katrin; Nalinya, Adron Naggayi; Francis, Tara; Spielman, David J.
Details

A comparative study of the legal and regulatory dimension of seed sector development in Sub-Saharan Africa using regulatory systems maps: The case of Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Uganda

Year published

2025

Authors

Kuhlmann, Katrin; Nalinya, Adron Naggayi; Francis, Tara; Spielman, David J.

Citation

Kuhlmann, Katrin; Nalinya, Adron Naggayi; Francis, Tara; and Spielman, David J. 2025. A comparative study of the legal and regulatory dimension of seed sector development in Sub-Saharan Africa using regulatory systems maps: The case of Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Uganda. Agricultural Systems 228(August 2025): 104351. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104351

Country/Region

Ethiopia; Rwanda; Uganda

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Development; Food Security; Regulations; Rules; Seed Systems

Language

English

Access/Licence

Limited Access

Project

Seed Equal

Record type

Journal Article

Journal Article

Agency and behavior change in agricultural research for development: New directions for guiding agri-food system transformations

2025
Freed, Sarah; Voss, Rachel C.; Falk, Thomas; Rietveld, Anne M.; Alary, Véronique; Chimonyo, Vimbayi G.P.; Frija, Aymen; Guettou-Djurfeldt, Nadia; Lestrelin, Guillaume; Singh, Sonali
…more Ndiwa, Aurillia Manjella; Zingwena, Taurai
Details

Agency and behavior change in agricultural research for development: New directions for guiding agri-food system transformations

CONTEXT Agri-food system transformations require change across sectors and actors within the system. Initiatives contributing to these changes need to connect system change processes to individual and collective agency and behaviors. OBJECTIVE We propose a conceptual framework on agency and behavior change for transforming agri-food systems (ACT framework). ACT emphasizes agri-food system actors’ behaviors with attention to their power, agency, and the influence of structural agri-food system elements. Researchers can apply ACT to assess an initiative’s contributions to changes in system elements through individual and collective behaviors. METHODS We conducted literature reviews and key informant interviews for 29 initiative case studies. Using ACT, we identified patterns in terms of initiatives’ targeted actors, behaviors, and the factors shaping actors’ agency and behavior. We then applied ACT in an initiative in Zimbabwe to develop a theory of change that links behavior change pathways with broader systems transformation. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS The reviewed initiatives focused heavily on shaping producers’ behavior through knowledge transfer, less often considering other actors and structural challenges and opportunities. Key informants frequently reported enablers and impediments to achieve initiative outcomes that were associated with structural system elements. Few were able to articulate their initiative’s theory of change and underlying assumptions. SIGNIFICANCE ACT can support a more diverse and theory-based exploration of agri-food system initiatives’ target actors, behaviors, and factors shaping behaviors. Development professionals can apply the ACT framework to design more effective TOCs that attend to diverse actor groups and leverage the factors influencing these actors’ agency and behaviors.

Year published

2025

Authors

Freed, Sarah; Voss, Rachel C.; Falk, Thomas; Rietveld, Anne M.; Alary, Véronique; Chimonyo, Vimbayi G.P.; Frija, Aymen; Guettou-Djurfeldt, Nadia; Lestrelin, Guillaume; Singh, Sonali; Ndiwa, Aurillia Manjella; Zingwena, Taurai

Citation

Freed, Sarah; Voss, Rachel C.; Falk, Thomas; Rietveld, Anne M.; Alary, Véronique; Chimonyo, Vimbayi G.P.; Frija, Aymen; et al. 2025. Agency and behavior change in agricultural research for development: New directions for guiding agri-food system transformations. Agricultural Systems 228(August 2025): 104399. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104399

Keywords

Agrifood Systems; Agricultural Research; Development; Theory of Change; Agroecology

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-NC-4.0

Project

Agroecology

Record type

Journal Article

Journal Article

Perspective: Growth monitoring and promotion as an opportunity to improve early childhood development

2025Larson, Leila M.; Frongillo, Edward A.; Akter, Fahmida; Wooten, Shelbie; Brander, Rebecca L.; Ruel, Marie T.; Leroy, Jef L.
Details

Perspective: Growth monitoring and promotion as an opportunity to improve early childhood development

Growth monitoring and promotion (GMP) visits provide a frequent contact point with caregivers which can be an opportunity for the promotion of early child development (ECD). Using a combination of quantitative analyses of longitudinal and cross-sectional data and a review of the literature, we investigated whether the GMP platform could improve ECD by identifying children at risk of poor development and delivering responsive parenting education to caregivers of young children. Cross-sectional and lagged regression analyses and area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) indicated that growth indices were not accurate predictors of concurrent and later child development. Rather, validated tools, such as the Ages and Stages Questionnaire or the Survey of Well-being of Young Children, could be utilized during GMP visits to screen individual children for suboptimal development. Through a review of published literature on ECD interventions, we identified 10 light-touch ECD interventions which could feasibly be implemented during GMP visits, but only half have been evaluated for their effectiveness. Our findings demonstrate that, while growth indices cannot accurately identify children at risk of suboptimal development, the GMP platform could offer an opportunity to screen children for suboptimal development and to deliver ECD interventions. Further evidence on the implementation and effectiveness of light-touch parenting programs, however, is required.

Year published

2025

Authors

Larson, Leila M.; Frongillo, Edward A.; Akter, Fahmida; Wooten, Shelbie; Brander, Rebecca L.; Ruel, Marie T.; Leroy, Jef L.

Citation

Larson, Leila M.; Frongillo, Edward A.; Akter, Fahmida; Wooten, Shelbie; Brander, Rebecca L.; et al. 2025. Perspective: Growth monitoring and promotion as an opportunity to improve early childhood development. Advances in Nutrition 16(8): 100470. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advnut.2025.100470

Keywords

Child Growth; Child Development; Monitoring

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Record type

Journal Article

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of poverty in relation to food system transformation?

2025Pauw, Karl; Dorosh, Paul A.; Xu, Wenqian; Balié, Jean
Details

What do we know about the future of poverty in relation to food system transformation?

Global poverty declined rapidly over the past 25 years, from around 30 percent to 8.5 percent today, but a series of global crises caused the pace of poverty reduction to slow down from 2020 onward. Some regions have done well; for instance, the East Asia and Pacific region has now effectively eliminated extreme poverty, a Sustainable Development Goal (SDG), while extreme poverty in South Asia is expected to be eradicated by 2030. But with almost no further reduction in the extreme poverty rate in sub-Saharan Africa until 2030, the number of poor people in this region will expand by 10 percent to reach 500 million. This means that by 2030, around 80 percent of the global population of poor people will live in sub-Saharan Africa. Poverty and food systems are closely intertwined. Both theory and evidence support the notion that investments in the food system that reduce food prices or create jobs in the food system will be highly effective at reducing poverty, and likely more so than investments outside of the food system, especially during the earlier stages of a country’s development. With respect to investments within the food system, since the majority of the world’s extreme poor are engaged in farming, investments in the on-farm part of the food system are likewise more effective at reducing extreme poverty than off-farm investments, such as in processing, distribution, and food services. However, rural-urban migration and structural shifts in employment into off-farm jobs, combined with growing demand for processed foods from retail or food service outlets, will gradually increase the poverty-reducing impacts of off-farm investments. Foresight analysis can help policymakers anticipate employment and dietary shifts and allocate their food system investments in a way that would maximize their impact on extreme poverty. Policies and investments designed to facilitate food systems transformation may be associated with trade-offs across development outcomes. For instance, while investments in staple crop productivity may be most effective at reducing poverty and calorie availability, they may not contribute to improving dietary quality or health outcomes, which are also important SDGs. Likewise, regulations that encourage the adoption of environmentally conscious food production processes, also central to several of the SDGs, may raise the cost of food, with negative consequences for poverty. At the same time, inaction now to facilitate a transition toward more sustainable food systems will contribute to conflicts, disasters, physical displacement, and adverse health and economic outcomes in the future, the burden of which will fall disproportionately on future generations of poor people. Foresight analysis can help policymakers understand these trade-offs as they consider alternative investment choices and measures to protect vulnerable populations from any adverse impacts.

Year published

2025

Authors

Pauw, Karl; Dorosh, Paul A.; Xu, Wenqian; Balié, Jean

Citation

Pauw, Karl; Dorosh, Paul A.; Xu, Wenqian; and Balié, Jean. 2025. What do we know about the future of poverty in relation to food system transformation? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part One: What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems Drivers and Impacts? Chapter 2, Pp. 8-12. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175110

Keywords

Poverty; Poverty Reduction; Food Systems; Policies; Investment; Agricultural Productivity; Rural Development

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of food systems in Central and West Asia and North Africa?

2025Frija, Aymen
Details

What do we know about the future of food systems in Central and West Asia and North Africa?

The subregions of Central and West Asia and North Africa (CWANA) will continue to import around 50 percent of domestic food requirements by 2050. Natural resources will continue to degrade in the CWANA region until 2050 and beyond. Agrifood systems transformation in CWANA can be facilitated by fast-tracking technology transfer approaches, leading to sustainable productivity growth. Foresight analyses are needed to generate scenarios of agrifood system transformation in CWANA, with a focus on reducing trade and importation risks related to international market volatility.

Year published

2025

Authors

Frija, Aymen

Citation

Frija, Aymen. 2025. What do we know about the future of food systems in Central and West Asia and North Africa? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part Two: What Do We Know About the Future of Food System in Selected Regions? Chapter 19, Pp. 109-114. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175456

Keywords

Africa; West and Central Africa; Northern Africa; Food Systems; Imports; Natural Resources Management; Resource Depletion; Forecasting; Technology Transfer; Water Scarcity; Nutrition; Agricultural Productivity

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of diets and nutrition?

2025Sulser, Timothy B.; Ruel, Marie T.; Thilsted, Shakuntala H.
Details

What do we know about the future of diets and nutrition?

Diets continue to evolve and nutrition challenges are changing as diets shift from traditional to more modern ones that are higher in animal-source foods, refined grains, and processed and ultra-processed foods; high in saturated fats, sugar, and salt; and low in fiber. Important progress, though uneven, has been made over several decades in improving diets and nutrition, but these trends have reversed or slowed since 2010. Undernutrition has decreased over time, while micronutrient deficiencies have not. Overweight and obesity are rapidly rising in all low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and remain high in high-income countries. Multiple burdens of malnutrition coexist within countries, regions, communities, households, and individuals. Nutrition literature increasingly highlights the multiple burdens of malnutrition but rarely looks explicitly at future trajectories for nutritional indicators. Simulation studies explore alternative futures explicitly and give a good indication regarding dietary trends but are limited with respect to nutritional outcome trends. A critical need and opportunity exist for more work that combines nutrition with foresight modeling, particularly with a focus on LMICs.

Year published

2025

Authors

Sulser, Timothy B.; Ruel, Marie T.; Thilsted, Shakuntala H.

Citation

Sulser, Timothy B.; Ruel, Marie T.; and Thilsted, Shakuntala H. 2025. What do we know about the future of diets and nutrition? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part One: What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems Drivers and Impacts? Chapter 3, Pp. 13-21. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175111

Keywords

Diet; Nutrition; Healthy Diets; Micronutrient Deficiencies; Undernutrition; Food Supply

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of the agrifood system in South Africa?

2025Meyer, Ferdi; Pienaar, Louw; Davids, Tracy; Kalaba, Mmatlou
Details

What do we know about the future of the agrifood system in South Africa?

South Africa’s primary agriculture sector witnessed profound productivity growth in recent decades, yet structural transformation is stalling due to a combination of sluggish nonfarm growth and persistent structural challenges that inhibit wider societal progress. Looking ahead, the agrifood system is well placed to increase the supply of goods at competitive prices but requires consistency in policymaking and an investment-friendly environment, as well as stronger domestic demand for products. Given the complexity and interconnectedness of the country’s agrifood system, future foresight research should focus on better understanding cross-sector productivity gains and how the entire system can be reoriented to support greater agricultural transformation.

Year published

2025

Authors

Meyer, Ferdi; Pienaar, Louw; Davids, Tracy; Kalaba, Mmatlou

Citation

Meyer, Ferdi; Pienaar, Louw; Davids, Tracy; and Kalaba, Mmatlou. 2025. What do we know about the future of the agrifood system in South Africa? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part Three: What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems in Selected Countries? Chapter 27, Pp. 159-163. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175514

Country/Region

South Africa

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Southern Africa; Food Systems; Agricultural Sector; Policies; Productivity; Transformation; Economic Development; Forecasting

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of food systems in South Asia?

2025Nedumaran, Swamikannu; Thomas, Judy; Nandi, Ravi; Padmanabhan, Jyosthnaa; Afari-Sefa, Victor
Details

What do we know about the future of food systems in South Asia?

Micronutrient availability in South Asia is projected to increase by 46 percent by 2050, reflecting a significant transition from traditional cereal-based diets to diverse, nutrient-rich foods, though affordability limits access for low-income groups. The shift from traditional diets to processed foods has led to an increase in obesity and diet-related noncommunicable diseases. Rising demand for animal-source foods also puts pressure on local resources and increases reliance on imports. Agriculture in South Asia relies heavily on freshwater, primarily groundwater, which is critically overused. Additionally, soil degradation and the burning of crop residues contribute to air pollution and pose risks to the sustainability and productivity of the region’s agricultural land. Climate change is expected to significantly affect crop yields, particularly for staples such as rice, wheat, and maize, with projected reductions by 2050. This climate impact will exacerbate food insecurity in the region, especially as food demand continues to grow. Current foresight studies often overlook the impacts of unexpected external shocks, such as pandemics and the Russia-Ukraine war, on agriculture and food systems. Addressing these research gaps and focusing on context-specific technological solutions, climate-smart practices, and self-sufficiency could enhance resilience and sustainability across South Asia’s agrifood sector.

Year published

2025

Authors

Nedumaran, Swamikannu; Thomas, Judy; Nandi, Ravi; Padmanabhan, Jyosthnaa; Afari-Sefa, Victor

Citation

Nedumaran, Swamikannu; Thomas, Judy; Nandi, Ravi; Padmanabhan, Jyosthnaa; and Afari-Sefa, Victor. 2025. What do we know about the future of food systems in South Asia? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part Two: What Do We Know About the Future of Food System in Selected Regions? Chapter 20, Pp. 115-120. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175457

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Food Systems; Trace Elements; Obesity; Non-communicable Diseases; Health; Climate Change; Shock; Crop Yield; Groundwater; Technology Transfer; Nutrition

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of animal-source foods and food systems?

2025Enahoro, Dolapo K.; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Herrero, Mario; Mensah, Charles; Baltenweck, Isabelle
Details

What do we know about the future of animal-source foods and food systems?

Urbanization and income growth lead to more diverse diets and increased consumption of animal-source foods (ASF) in lower-income countries, while in some higher-income countries, consumer preferences may slowly be shifting away from ASF. A significant shift in diets is projected for lower-income countries, with the demand for ASF expected to increase by 20 percent in absolute kcal/person/day terms under conditions of baseline socioeconomic trends to 2050. Projected shifts in ASF consumption will disrupt local-to-global food production and distribution, but most attention has focused on its implications for nutrition and health, climate, and the environment, with less attention to socioeconomic and livelihood impacts. Strategies proposed for addressing the complex and multidimensional future impacts of changes in ASF demand, production, and distribution need further exploration.

Year published

2025

Authors

Enahoro, Dolapo K.; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Herrero, Mario; Mensah, Charles; Baltenweck, Isabelle

Citation

Enahoro, Dolapo K.; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Herrero, Mario; Mensah, Charles; and Baltenweck, Isabelle. 2025. What do we know about the future of animal-source foods and food systems? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part Three: What Do We Know About the Future of Selected Food Commodities? Chapter 28, Pp. 166-171. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175515

Keywords

Food Systems; Livestock Products; Animal Source Foods; Urbanization; Income Generation; Food Production; Diet; Climate Change; Greenhouse Gases

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of agrifood systems in Southeast Asia?

2025Tran, Nhuong; Valera, Harold Glenn; Chan, Chin Yee; Pede, Valerien Olivier; Aung, Yee Mon; Antonio, Ronald Jeremy
Details

What do we know about the future of agrifood systems in Southeast Asia?

The food systems of Southeast Asia (SEA) are projected to be under increasing pressure due to multiple drivers, including population growth, urbanization, biodiversity loss, and the uncertainties stemming from climate change. Rice and fish will remain staple foods and the backbone of diets in the region’s rural and urban areas. In 2019, SEA produced 72 percent of the world’s aquatic food products and 25 percent of the world’s rice. Rice accounts for 50 percent of calorie intake for its population, while fish contributes more than 50 percent of per capita average animal protein intake. These shares are expected to rise over the next several decades due to population growth. Production and consumption of staple foods are expected to fall due to the impacts of climate change, potentially jeopardizing food and nutrition security in the region and beyond. The projected magnitude of climate change impacts on rice production varies greatly, depending on the models used. Previous regional foresight studies have explored the implications of climate change on food production in SEA, but other driving forces and outcomes of food systems transformation have received less attention.

Year published

2025

Authors

Tran, Nhuong; Valera, Harold Glenn; Chan, Chin Yee; Pede, Valerien Olivier; Aung, Yee Mon; Antonio, Ronald Jeremy

Citation

Tran, Nhuong; Valera, Harold Glenn; Chan, Chin Yee; Pede, Valerien Olivier; Aung, Yee Mon; and Antonio, Ronald Jeremy. 2025. What do we know about the future of agrifood systems in Southeast Asia? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part Two: What Do We Know About the Future of Food System in Selected Regions? Chapter 21, Pp. 121-124. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175507

Keywords

Asia; South-eastern Asia; Food Systems; Rice; Seafoods; Population Growth; Climate Change; Aquaculture; Nutrition; Fishery Resources

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of land in relation to food systems?

2025Robertson, Richard D.; Cenacchi, Nicola; Mishra, Abhijeet
Details

What do we know about the future of land in relation to food systems?

The total amount of cropland across the globe is likely to expand over the next three decades due to rising demand for food along with feed for livestock. Pasture will likely be stable or contract as livestock production continues to shift away from grazing and toward intensive use of feed and transported fodder. Climate change will increase the overall challenge and drive additional cropland expansion by generally reducing potential yields, although some crops and locations will benefit (typically higher latitudes and, to a lesser extent, higher elevations). Natural land will be displaced by cropland in some areas. In particular, forests in the tropics are at greater risk of conversion than in other regions. Beyond cropland incursion, the types, mixes, and footprints of natural vegetation may be affected by climate change.

Year published

2025

Authors

Robertson, Richard D.; Cenacchi, Nicola; Mishra, Abhijeet

Citation

Robertson, Richard D.; Cenacchi, Nicola; and Mishra, Abhijeet. 2025. What do we know about the future of land in relation to food systems? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part One: What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems Drivers and Impacts? Chapter 9, Pp. 50-53. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175231

Keywords

Land; Food Systems; Land Use; Farmland; Intensive Farming; Climate Change; Land-use Change; Deforestation; Modelling

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of food trade?

2025Glauber, Joseph W.; Gabriel, Sherwin
Details

What do we know about the future of food trade?

Trade in agriculture and food products increased dramatically over the past 20 years, driven by population and income growth that resulted in consumption exceeding production in many countries. Productivity growth grew as well, allowing countries with surplus production to meet global import demand. Reforms in the global trading system have reduced import barriers, also encouraging trade. As a result, imports as a percentage of total consumption have increased steadily (particularly in low-income countries) and forecasts for the near term (next 10 years) as well as longer-term projections (to 2050) suggest that these trends will continue. Climate change will pose continued challenges as production shifts due to increased temperatures and more variable rainfall. Trade will be necessary to help mitigate the impacts of these changes, so the global trading system must remain open and free of harmful distortions.

Year published

2025

Authors

Glauber, Joseph W.; Gabriel, Sherwin

Citation

Glauber, Joseph W.; and Gabriel, Sherwin. 2025. What do we know about the future of food trade? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part One: What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems Drivers and Impacts? Chapter 13, Pp. 73-80. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175406

Keywords

Trade; Agricultural Trade; World Markets; Cereals; Maize; Rice; Wheat; Agricultural Products; Trade Policies; Oil Crops

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of urbanization in relation to food systems?

2025Dorosh, Paul A.; Thurlow, James
Details

What do we know about the future of urbanization in relation to food systems?

The world is urbanizing rapidly. The global urban population increased from 2.87 billion in 2000 to 4.38 billion in 2020, a 53 percent rise, and is projected to reach 6.57 billion by 2050, representing 68 percent of the world’s population (World Bank 2024a). Urbanization is often associated with structural economic transformation, marked by a growing share of nonagriculture sectors (that is, industry and services) in gross domestic product (GDP) and employment, as well as increased productivity and incomes — ideally driven by high-productivity industries. Rapid urbanization typically leads to significant growth in market volumes (Reardon and Timmer 2014; Minten et al. 2020). However, this growth can result in declining diet quality due to reduced availability of fruits and vegetables. Additionally, improving sanitation and food safety becomes a major challenge. Excessively rapid urbanization can lead to the development of urban slums and increased poverty, and it often coincides with underinvestment in agriculture and the rural economy, exacerbating rural poverty. More research is needed, using detailed spatial data to link biophysical and socioeconomic outcomes, to better understand the ongoing urbanization-driven transformation of food systems.

Year published

2025

Authors

Dorosh, Paul A.; Thurlow, James

Citation

Dorosh, Paul A.; and Thurlow, James. 2025. What do we know about the future of urbanization in relation to food systems? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part One: What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems Drivers and Impacts? Chapter 14, Pp. 81-84. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175407

Keywords

Urbanization; Food Systems; Economic Sectors; Food Safety; Diet Quality; Urban Population; Rural Urban Migration; Slums

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of rice in relation to food systems?

2025Valera, Harold Glenn; Pede, Valerien Olivier; Antonio, Ronald Jeremy
Details

What do we know about the future of rice in relation to food systems?

Global rice production remained more stable than maize and wheat production in recent years, while rice consumption continues to increase, albeit at a slower pace. Rice production and consumption are projected to increase worldwide, with Asia to continue as the world’s leading source of rice through 2050. Southeast Asia’s rice surplus will increase by 2040 by closing the exploitable yield gap by one-half. The global rice sector will experience an increasing economic surplus with faster productivity growth and will contribute to a decline in the number of undernourished children and people at risk of hunger. Demographic changes and rice trade policy reforms will be key drivers of rice demand and prices in different countries.

Year published

2025

Authors

Valera, Harold Glenn; Pede, Valerien Olivier; Antonio, Ronald Jeremy

Citation

Valera, Harold Glenn; Pede, Valerien Olivier; and Antonio, Ronald Jeremy. 2025. What do we know about the future of rice in relation to food systems? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part Three: What Do We Know About the Future of Selected Food Commodities? Chapter 32, Pp. 191-195. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175530

Keywords

Rice; Food Systems; Crop Production; Yield Gap; Forecasting; Supply Balance; Farmland; Trade Policies; Productivity

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of food systems innovation?

2025Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Herrero, Mario; Kugler, Cody; Remans, Rosaline; Thornton, Philip K.; Zornetzer, Heather
Details

What do we know about the future of food systems innovation?

Innovations have been and will continue to be critical drivers of food systems and societal change. Predicting “game-changing” technology ahead of time is not possible, and silver bullets do not exist. Novel innovations can alleviate some challenges, but unintended consequences always arise. Foresight research can help to identify undesirable outcomes early on and align investments and incentives with social and environmental objectives.

Year published

2025

Authors

Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Herrero, Mario; Kugler, Cody; Remans, Rosaline; Thornton, Philip K.; Zornetzer, Heather

Citation

Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Herrero, Mario; Kugler, Cody; Remans, Rosaline; Thornton, Philip K.; and Zornetzer, Heather. 2025. What do we know about the future of food systems innovation? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part One: What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems Drivers and Impacts? Chapter 12, Pp. 64-72. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175234

Keywords

Food Systems; Innovation; Agricultural Innovation; Agricultural Productivity; Technology Adoption; Research; Policies

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of the agrifood system in Indonesia?

2025
Jamal, Erizal; Sahara, Sahara; Izzulhaq, Syahid; Amaliah, Syarifah; Ahmad, Fahmi Salam; Komalawati, Komalawati; Buhaerah, Pihri; Martino, Ifan; Metafurry, Wulan; Mutaqin, Dadang Jainal
…more Firdaus, Irfan Thofiq; Setyawati, Dewi; Pradesha, Angga; Yulaswati, Vivi; Beik, Irfan Syauqi; Wardhana, Irwanda Wisnu; Indarto, Jarot; Nugroho, Agus Eko; Arifin, Bustanul; Sudaryanto, Tahlim
Details

What do we know about the future of the agrifood system in Indonesia?

Productivity growth has played a dominant role in driving the growth of Indonesia’s agricultural production in recent decades, but it has been accompanied by the increasing role of land expansion. Indonesia is projected to achieve high-income status by 2045 if the country can maintain a 6–7 percent annual economic growth rate. To achieve high income and economic growth, the country needs to boost investment activities by increasing national saving, foreign direct investment (FDI), and investment efficiency. Future foresight research should include environmental impacts such as emissions and land use change and explore long-term changes in dietary patterns and poverty alleviation.

Year published

2025

Authors

Jamal, Erizal; Sahara, Sahara; Izzulhaq, Syahid; Amaliah, Syarifah; Ahmad, Fahmi Salam; Komalawati, Komalawati; Buhaerah, Pihri; Martino, Ifan; Metafurry, Wulan; Mutaqin, Dadang Jainal; Firdaus, Irfan Thofiq; Setyawati, Dewi; Pradesha, Angga; Yulaswati, Vivi; Beik, Irfan Syauqi; Wardhana, Irwanda Wisnu; Indarto, Jarot; Nugroho, Agus Eko; Arifin, Bustanul; Sudaryanto, Tahlim

Citation

Jamal, Erizal; Sahara, Sahara; Izzulhaq, Syahid; Amaliah, Syarifah; Ahmad, Fahmi Salam; et al. 2025. What do we know about the future of the agrifood system in Indonesia? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part Three: What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems in Selected Countries? Chapter 26, Pp. 151-158. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175513

Country/Region

Indonesia

Keywords

Asia; South-eastern Asia; Food Systems; Agricultural Productivity; Savings; Foreign Investment; Investment; Land Use; Poverty; Economic Development; Cultivated Land; Horticulture

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of wheat?

2025Kruseman, Gideon; Sonder, Kai; Pequeno, Diego; Reynolds, Matthew; Frija, Aymen
Details

What do we know about the future of wheat?

Wheat has been and will remain a major component of diets globally. It accounts for an average of 18 percent of total energy intake and 19 percent of total protein intake globally. It is the primary staple food for 1.5 billion resource-constrained people in the Global South. Wheat represents 29 percent of the global cereals area and 14 percent of the global cropland area. It is an important crop in most agricultural areas of the world except the humid tropics and is less prominent in sub-Saharan Africa. Compared to rice and maize, it is more drought- and cold-tolerant. Wheat will continue to be an important source of protein in 2050, even under changing diets. In meat-based diets, wheat is often part of animal feed. In plant-based diets, wheat is a source of protein. Climate change offers both challenges and opportunities for wheat. Areas previously unsuitable for wheat production may have a comparative advantage under climate change. Similarly, some traditional wheat-growing areas may become less suitable for wheat production under climate change, especially due to heat stress. While Jägermeyr et al. (2021) indicate it can be beneficial for many existing wheat-growing areas, the impacts, for example, of increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, warmer night temperatures, and other weather anomalies are likely to counteract some of the benefits. Some of the poorer regions of the world are historically considered to be wheat-deficit areas and will increasingly depend on imports. This is a key factor in Africa, where there is less wheat production and wheat consumption is increasing with rising incomes.

Year published

2025

Authors

Kruseman, Gideon; Sonder, Kai; Pequeno, Diego; Reynolds, Matthew; Frija, Aymen

Citation

Kruseman, Gideon; Sonder, Kai; Pequeno, Diego; Reynolds, Matthew; and Frija, Aymen. 2025. What do we know about the future of wheat? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part Three: What Do We Know About the Future of Selected Food Commodities? Chapter 34, Pp. 201-207. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175532

Keywords

Wheat; Food Systems; Food Security; Nutrition Security; Plant Protein; Climate Change; Cold Tolerance; Drought Tolerance

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of the environment and biodiversity in relation to food systems?

2025Gotor, Elisabetta; Masso, Cargele
Details

What do we know about the future of the environment and biodiversity in relation to food systems?

The environment’s proper functioning is essential for a better life on Earth, including maintaining, enhancing, and restoring biodiversity and ecosystem services. While the environment is driven by external factors and shocks as well as interventions within the global food system, it simultaneously drives the overall health and stability of the planet. This relationship involves complex interactions and tipping points, which foresight research needs to capture in analyzing alternative future pathways for food system transformation. A sustainable and resilient environment requires holistic approaches, strategies, and policies to address environmental stresses and promote conservation, regeneration, and coexistence with nature. These include practices that respect ecological boundaries, reduce resource consumption and conflict, foster biodiversity, and enhance ecosystem recovery and adaptability. Foresight research is essential to help decision-makers understand synergies and trade-offs between long-term public goods benefits and short-term private costs from resource use and management. Addressing food systems challenges — including root causes of environmental degradation and biodiversity loss — requires sustainable land and soil management, conservation efforts, and food production practices, in addition to economic viability and social inclusion. Foresight analysis can help policymakers, communities, and industries make informed decisions and prioritize and deploy effective and holistic strategies at the biodiversity-climate-society nexus.

Year published

2025

Authors

Gotor, Elisabetta; Masso, Cargele

Citation

Gotor, Elisabetta; and Masso, Cargele. 2025. What do we know about the future of the environment and biodiversity in relation to food systems? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part One: What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems Drivers and Impacts? Chapter 5, Pp. 28-33. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175227

Keywords

Environment; Biodiversity; Food Systems; Environmental Degradation; Resource Conservation; Sustainability; Ecosystem Services; Climate Change; Natural Resources Management; Sustainable Land Use

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of food systems in Latin America and the Caribbean?

2025Piñeiro, Valeria; Hareau, Guy; Andrade, Robert
Details

What do we know about the future of food systems in Latin America and the Caribbean?

Heterogeneity and inequality: Latin America and the Caribbean’s (LAC) agrifood systems are marked by significant disparities across the region and within countries in production, trade, and access to food, with inequality a central challenge. These disparities not only undermine food security but also hinder the region’s ability to develop sustainable and resilient food systems. Sustainability and climate resilience: The future of LAC’s agrifood systems will be shaped by the region’s ability to balance agricultural growth with environmental sustainability and the conservation of the stock of natural resources in the long run. Role of policies: Closing the gap between the rich and poor, between large and small producers, and between urban and rural populations requires targeted action, including investing in rural infrastructure, facilitating access to appropriate technologies, and encouraging regional cooperation. Specialization and governance: The region’s continued specialization in agricultural exports presents both opportunities and challenges. Strengthening food security governance frameworks and promoting inclusive policies will be essential to ensure that the benefits of agricultural growth are shared more equitably and that agrifood systems are resilient in the face of climate change and other global challenges. Foresight research can help address these challenges, focusing on the consequences of structural transformation, the trade-offs between agricultural productivity and sustainable management of LAC, the long-term effects of climate change, and how disruptors and drivers of agrifood systems transformation can affect the different LAC regions and countries.

Year published

2025

Authors

Piñeiro, Valeria; Hareau, Guy; Andrade, Robert

Citation

Piñeiro, Valeria; Hareau, Guy; and Andrade, Robert. 2025. What do we know about the future of food systems in Latin America and the Caribbean? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part Two: What Do We Know About the Future of Food System in Selected Regions? Chapter 22, Pp. 125-131. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175508

Keywords

Latin America and the Caribbean; Food Systems; Equality; Sustainability; Climate Resilience; Policies; Governance; Technology Transfer; Natural Resources; Nutrition; Trade

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of agriculture systems in China?

2025Han, Xinru; Hu, Xiangdong; Chen, Kevin Z.
Details

What do we know about the future of agriculture systems in China?

Addressing the dual challenge of limited resources and a large population, China must prioritize sustainable agricultural practices to ensure food security and environmental sustainability. The shift toward a more nutritionally balanced diet by 2050 will not only improve public health but also significantly alter the demand patterns for various food commodities, increasing the need for strategic adjustments in agricultural production. Technological innovation in agriculture presents a critical solution to overcoming constraints of land and water, highlighting the importance of continued investment in research and development for sustainable growth. Future agricultural transformations will likely involve a move away from traditional small-scale farming toward more efficient and cooperative agricultural models, driven by rural demographic changes and the growth of socialized service organizations.

Year published

2025

Authors

Han, Xinru; Hu, Xiangdong; Chen, Kevin Z.

Citation

Han, Xinru; Hu, Xiangdong; and Chen, Kevin Z. 2025. What do we know about the future of agriculture systems in China? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part Three: What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems in Selected Countries? Chapter 24, Pp. 139-144. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175511

Country/Region

China

Keywords

Asia; Eastern Asia; Agriculture; Resource Availability; Population Number; Food Security; Sustainability; Diet; Health; Agricultural Innovation; Food Systems; Nutrition; Sustainability

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of agrobiodiversity in relation to food systems?

2025Cenacchi, Nicola; Gotor, Elisabetta; Petsakos, Athanasios; Schiek, Benjamin
Details

What do we know about the future of agrobiodiversity in relation to food systems?

Agrobiodiversity — the diversity of living organisms that underpin agricultural systems — provides numerous critical benefits, from on-farm crop diversity and genetic resources that allow farmers to adapt crops to changing environments to the provision of ecosystem services such as pollination, disease and pest resistance, soil health, and water conservation. These benefits in turn support resilient livelihoods, food security, and diversified, nutritious diets. A number of ex ante theoretical and practical approaches have been used to show how greater agricultural biodiversity is connected to higher production and lower risk exposure, and to assess the role that agrobiodiversity plays in supporting agricultural systems resilience. But little has been done to integrate the measurement of agrobiodiversity into foresight modeling, or to apply foresight tools and methods to study long-term effects of agrobiodiversity on socioeconomic or environmental outcomes. The recent development of the Agrobiodiversity Index and advances in integrated modeling systems provide opportunities for improved scenario analysis focused on agrobiodiversity and informed by agroecology and agricultural economics theory.

Year published

2025

Authors

Cenacchi, Nicola; Gotor, Elisabetta; Petsakos, Athanasios; Schiek, Benjamin

Citation

Cenacchi, Nicola; Gotor, Elisabetta; Petsakos, Athanasios; and Schiek, Benjamin. 2025. What do we know about the future of agrobiodiversity in relation to food systems? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part One: What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems Drivers and Impacts? Chapter 7, Pp. 41-44. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175229

Keywords

Food Systems; Agrobiodiversity; Risk Analysis; Resilience; Modelling; Ecosystem Services; Diversification; Genetic Resources; Agroforestry

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book

What do we know about the future of food systems?

2025Wiebe, Keith D.; Gotor, Elisabetta
Details

What do we know about the future of food systems?

Food systems have achieved remarkable progress in recent decades, but moving forward, they will face significant challenges in delivering the many outputs and services we expect and need. This book presents a collection of short chapters on the current state of knowledge about different aspects of the future of food systems, written by a diverse group of scientists from around the world with expertise in a wide range of related disciplines and regions. Each chapter examines a particular aspect of food systems, describes recent trends and challenges that highlight the importance of the topic, summarizes the latest available foresight research on that topic, and identifies key gaps in existing foresight research that merit further attention. In a world of complexity and uncertainty, the goal of this book — and the purpose of foresight analysis, more generally — is not to predict the future with precision, but rather to carefully consider and present what can be known about possible future pathways in order to inform choices today. The collection includes 15 chapters focused on major drivers and impacts of change in food systems, 11 chapters that provide regional and national perspectives on the future of food systems, 7 chapters on the future of major food commodities, and 3 chapters on food systems measurement and modeling tools. The contributors come from across CGIAR and many other partner research institutions around the world. This collection was begun as part of the CGIAR Research Initiative on Foresight during the 2022–2024 period and completed as part of the ongoing area of work on foresight and prioritization under the CGIAR Science Program on Policy Innovations.

Year published

2025

Authors

Wiebe, Keith D.; Gotor, Elisabetta

Citation

Wiebe, Keith D.; and Gotor, Elisabetta. 2025. What do we know about the future of food systems? Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175019

Keywords

Food Systems; Forecasting; Natural Resources; Policies; Uncertainty

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of foresight modeling related to food systems?

2025Wiebe, Keith D.; Mosnier, Aline; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Petsakos, Athanasios; Svensson, Johannes; Zurek, Monika
Details

What do we know about the future of foresight modeling related to food systems?

“Foresight modeling” is thinking about the future using a simplified representation of reality to inform choices we make today. Quantitative foresight modeling is increasingly used to inform decision-making related to food systems by analytically exploring alternative possible futures in a world that is becoming more complex and uncertain. Foresight modeling is improving in coverage and resolution, but various technical and institutional gaps remain. Artificial intelligence can help gather and synthesize information to improve foresight modeling, but it cannot replace the role of human expertise and foresight in testing assumptions and helping to shape the future. To be most effective, quantitative foresight modeling needs to be better linked with qualitative foresight approaches and complemented by engagement with decision-makers in an ongoing and systematic process.

Year published

2025

Authors

Wiebe, Keith D.; Mosnier, Aline; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Petsakos, Athanasios; Svensson, Johannes; Zurek, Monika

Citation

Wiebe, Keith D.; Mosnier, Aline; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Petsakos, Athanasios; Svensson, Johannes; and Zurek, Monika. 2025. What do we know about the future of foresight modeling related to food systems? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part Four: What Do We Know About the Future of Foresight Data and Analytical Tools? Chapter 37, Pp. 223-229. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175535

Keywords

Artificial Intelligence; Food Systems; Modelling; Climate Models; Growth Models; Econometric Models; Decision-support Systems

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of gender equality in relation to food system transformation?

2025Bryan, Elizabeth; Magalhaes, Marilia; Puskur, Ranjitha; Haan, Nicoline C. de; Lecoutere, Els; Malapit, Hazel J.
Details

What do we know about the future of gender equality in relation to food system transformation?

Foresight research has yet to fully explore gender equality as an outcome and a driver of food systems transformation. Foresight analysis can assess which food systems investments and interventions are most effective at reducing gender inequalities and increasing women’s empowerment. Addressing structural inequalities, promoting inclusivity in decision-making, and challenging patriarchal norms can enhance gender equality, social inclusion, and women’s empowerment in food systems transformation. Neglecting gender barriers when designing and disseminating food systems innovations may exacerbate gender inequalities and limit women’s empowerment. Gender equality, women’s empowerment, and social inclusion also drive food systems transformation, leading to improved welfare outcomes for all. Foresight research should examine how closing gender gaps in livelihood opportunities, agricultural productivity, and resilience capacities can impact other food systems outcomes, such as poverty reduction, food security, and nutrition. While data on gender inequalities in food systems and women’s empowerment have increased over the last 10 years, more sex-disaggregated data and impact evaluation studies are needed for rigorous foresight research on gender equality in agrifood systems.

Year published

2025

Authors

Bryan, Elizabeth; Magalhaes, Marilia; Puskur, Ranjitha; Haan, Nicoline C. de; Lecoutere, Els; Malapit, Hazel J.

Citation

Bryan, Elizabeth; Magalhaes, Marilia; Puskur, Ranjitha; Haan, Nicoline C. de; Lecoutere, Els; and Malapit, Hazel J. 2025. What do we know about the future of gender equality in relation to food system transformation? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part One: What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems Drivers and Impacts? Chapter 4, Pp. 22-27. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175112

Keywords

Gender; Gender Equality; Food Systems; Women’s Empowerment; Decision-support Systems; Social Inclusion; Gender Norms; Agricultural Productivity

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of agriculture in Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay?

2025Jorge, Nicolas; Campos, Silvia Kanadani; Gianatiempo, Juan Pablo; Pereira, Vanessa da Fonseca; Piñeiro, Valeria
Details

What do we know about the future of agriculture in Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay?

Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay (ABPU) have significant weight in the global agricultural market. In 2020–2022, the bloc accounted for 53.1 percent of Latin America and the Caribbean’s total agricultural exports, and 9.3 percent of the world total. This contribution is key in many products at the global level too, such as soybean products (for which the group accounts for 56 percent of world trade), corn (32 percent), bovine meat (26 percent), poultry meat (20 percent), pork meat (6 percent), and wheat (6 percent) (2020–2022 Comtrade data). These commodities are essential for global food security, particularly in regions with growing populations and increasing food demand, notably Asia and Africa. Ensuring the sustainability of ABPU production is paramount not only for food security but also for environmental concerns. ABPU projections show robust growth in cereal and oilseed production, which is expected to increase by 26 percent (118 million tons) by 2033/34 relative to 2023/24. Total exports of cereals and oilseeds are projected to rise by 74 million tons, reaching 355 million tons, driven largely by corn, soybeans, and wheat. Despite slowing growth in global demand and trade of food products, opportunities exist for ABPU countries to increase their food production and exports. Making the most of these opportunities will require increasing yields to maintain production growth while ensuring sustainability. To this end, technological advancements such as minimal soil disturbance, permanent cover cropping, crop diversification, intensive fattening, biotechnology, biological inputs, and precision agriculture can help increase productivity while minimizing environmental impact. The investments required to increase the use of enhanced technology could benefit greatly from a more stable political and macroeconomic context, as well as clear and consistent policies. For example, multilateral trade negotiations in agriculture should not be undermined. Collaboration among ABPU countries could greatly enhance the strategies needed to achieve these sustainability and food security objectives. The analysis described here is intended to kickstart this collaboration, which has shown significant potential for future work.

Year published

2025

Authors

Jorge, Nicolas; Campos, Silvia Kanadani; Gianatiempo, Juan Pablo; Pereira, Vanessa da Fonseca; Piñeiro, Valeria

Citation

Jorge, Nicolas; Campos, Silvia Kanadani; Gianatiempo, Juan Pablo; Pereira, Vanessa da Fonseca; and Piñeiro, Valeria. 2025. What do we know about the future of agriculture in Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part Three: What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems in Selected Countries? Chapter 23, Pp. 134-138. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175509

Country/Region

Argentina; Brazil; Paraguay; Uruguay

Keywords

Latin America and the Caribbean; World Markets; Soybean Products; Livestock Products; Wheat; Sustainability; Food Security; Maize; Food Production; Trade

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of food assistance?

2025Omamo, Steven Were
Details

What do we know about the future of food assistance?

Food assistance has evolved to address both immediate needs and long-term resilience, reflecting the broader scope of interventions beyond traditional food aid. Localized and cash-based assistance is growing in importance, but externally sourced, in-kind assistance remains crucial in areas where markets and food systems are disrupted and thus unable to ensure timely and stable access to nutritious food. Future food assistance needs will increasingly reflect changing geographies, growing urban food insecurity, and heightened market volatility, requiring adaptive, anticipatory, and multilayered strategies. Significant gaps remain in understanding how to sustainably transition from international food assistance to locally driven, resilient food systems that address long-term nutritional adequacy and adapt to compounding crises. Foresight research can help highlight the intersection of climate change, conflict, and economic volatility as key drivers of future food assistance needs, and the nature of innovations to boost efficiency and impact. Expanded use of digital tools and integration of food assistance into social protection systems offer promising pathways toward enhanced efficiency and impact. Further research is needed to ensure that innovations reach the most vulnerable in low-resource settings and that integrated systems are sustainable.

Year published

2025

Authors

Omamo, Steven Were

Citation

Omamo, Steven Were. 2025. What do we know about the future of food assistance? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part One: What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems Drivers and Impacts? Chapter 16, Pp. 91-96. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175409

Keywords

Food Assistance; Social Protection; Food Aid; Nutrition; Markets; Food Security; Wfp; Cash Transfers; Digital Technology

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of food demand, production, and food security based on IMPACT model projections?

2025Cenacchi, Nicola; Sulser, Timothy B.; Mishra, Abhijeet
Details

What do we know about the future of food demand, production, and food security based on IMPACT model projections?

Global food demand is projected to increase as incomes rise, and diets will continue shifting toward more nutrient-dense foods, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). IMPACT model projections indicate that global production for all agricultural commodities will increase by over 40 percent between 2020 and 2050, driven by innovation and productivity growth, but resource constraints and climate change pose challenges. As with demand, production is projected to grow fastest in LMICs. In the coming decades, food demand is projected to outpace production in most LMIC regions. As a result, most of these regions, with the exception of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), are expected to increase their reliance on imports. Increases in production and trade are expected to enhance food availability, but most LMIC regions are not on track to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 2.1 on ending hunger by 2030. Strengthening model integration and incorporating socioeconomic disaggregation will enhance IMPACT’s ability to provide more comprehensive insights for decision-making to address these challenges.

Year published

2025

Authors

Cenacchi, Nicola; Sulser, Timothy B.; Mishra, Abhijeet

Citation

Cenacchi, Nicola; Sulser, Timothy B.; and Mishra, Abhijeet. 2025. What do we know about the future of food demand, production, and food security based on IMPACT model projections? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part Four: What Do We Know About the Future of Foresight Data and Analytical Tools? Chapter 36, Pp. 216-222. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175534

Keywords

Modelling; Market Demand; Food Production; Food Security; Trade; Population Growth

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of food systems in relation to climate change?

2025Thomas, Timothy S.; Mukherji, Aditi
Details

What do we know about the future of food systems in relation to climate change?

Climate change poses major challenges to agriculture and food systems, but the latest foresight modeling suggests impacts may be more nuanced than previously thought. For example, economic feedback mechanisms affect global average impacts of climate change on yields and important differences arise between the various greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios and climate models. More importantly, global averages mask wide diversity in impacts across geographies, commodities, and people’s ability to adapt. In addition to long-term impacts of changes in global averages, increasing climate variability is likely to lead to a higher frequency of production shocks from adverse climate events. Climate change is expected to lower GDP and therefore increase the number of food-insecure households and increase poverty. It may also slow growth of agricultural productivity, adversely impacting rural households. Agriculture and food systems (including diets, energy use, and land use change) play a key role in global emissions and strategies to reach net zero, but these strategies are at cross purposes with meeting food needs under climate change and rising demand for food globally. Foresight modeling can help decision-makers evaluate these trade-offs and ameliorate particularly adverse impacts.

Year published

2025

Authors

Thomas, Timothy S.; Mukherji, Aditi

Citation

Thomas, Timothy S.; and Mukherji, Aditi. 2025. What do we know about the future of food systems in relation to climate change? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part One: What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems Drivers and Impacts? Chapter 6, Pp. 34-40. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175228

Keywords

Food Systems; Climate; Climate Change; Climate Models; Greenhouse Gas Emissions; Yield Factors; Extreme Weather Events; Poverty; Resilience

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of water in food systems?

2025Ringler, Claudia; McCartney, Matthew P.; Hafeez, Mohsin
Details

What do we know about the future of water in food systems?

Demand is growing while supply is uncertain: Globally, the demand for water in agriculture and food systems is growing, alongside competing needs in other sectors. Freshwater consumption is projected to increase by 17 percent between 2020 and 2050, most of it for irrigation, and almost all of it in low- and middle-income countries. At the same time, water availability is becoming increasingly uncertain due to climate extremes, long-term climate change, pollution, and land use changes such as deforestation and wetland degradation. The rising variability and scarcity contribute to competition among different water users. The water supply-demand gap must be addressed: As the gap between water supply and demand increases, both tested and new technologies, policies, and institutions are needed to improve water productivity and efficiency. At the same time, more research is needed to identify solutions that mitigate the negative impacts of water shortages, pollution, and poor water management on food systems as well as to curb the adverse impacts arising from inefficient and wasteful food systems on water resources and the environment. Agriculture and food systems drive many of the pressures on freshwater ecosystems. According to the IUCN Red List, 25 percent of freshwater species are threatened with extinction (IUCN 2024). This loss of biodiversity threatens not only the species themselves but also the vital services they and their ecosystems provide to humanity. With water a connector across sectors, new approaches to management are critical: With rising water scarcity, decisions in areas such as climate, nutrition, energy, and trade policy will increasingly shape the future of water in food systems. To improve water management in food systems, a more integrated, forward-looking approach is needed that considers the broader implications of policies and investments across multiple sectors. In addition, strengthening governance and institutions and empowering farmers, as key stewards of water resources, are essential for sustainable outcomes.

Year published

2025

Authors

Ringler, Claudia; McCartney, Matthew P.; Hafeez, Mohsin

Citation

Ringler, Claudia; McCartney, Matthew P.; and Hafeez, Mohsin. 2025. What do we know about the future of water in food systems? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part One: What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems Drivers and Impacts? Chapter 10, Pp. 54-59. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175232

Keywords

Water; Food Systems; Water Management; Water Demand; Water Supply; Food Security; Nutrition; Irrigation; Groundwater Depletion; Water Pollution; Water Governance

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the impacts of the next El Niño on agrifood systems?

2025Koo, Jawoo; Anderson, Weston
Details

What do we know about the impacts of the next El Niño on agrifood systems?

As of June 2023, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared that El Niño conditions were present and consensus existed among climate prediction centers that El Niño would likely persist from November 2023 to February 2024. El Niño is typically associated with seasonal climate anomalies and extreme weather events throughout the developing world, especially across sub-Saharan Africa, but the economic impacts caused by these events are difficult to disentangle from those of other climate shocks, natural disasters, and economic cycles. Additionally, the strength and consistency of El Niño’s agroclimatic impacts vary by region. El Niño’s unique slow onset, periodic pattern, and lead times of prediction (from a few months to a year) make it possible to design anticipatory policies and prepare emergency responses in advance. Policymakers should closely monitor the evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases and the potential impacts of El Niño and be prepared to coordinate policy responses quickly as the situation unfolds. As global warming continues and climate extremes occur more frequently, actions to foster climate-resilient agrifood systems should be broadly prioritized.

Year published

2025

Authors

Koo, Jawoo; Anderson, Weston

Citation

Koo, Jawoo; and Anderson, Weston. 2025. What do we know about the impacts of the next El Niño on agrifood systems? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part One: What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems Drivers and Impacts? Chapter 15, Pp. 85-90. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175408

Keywords

El Niño; Agrifood Systems; Climate Prediction; Extreme Weather Events; Agroclimatology; Early Warning Systems; Climate Variability; Climate Change

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of food systems in India?

2025Balaji, Sedithippa Janarthanan; Birthal, Pratap S.; Pal, Barun Deb
Details

What do we know about the future of food systems in India?

Rapid growth in the livestock and fisheries subsectors, driven by increasing demand, has advanced the frontiers of agricultural growth in India. Irrigation plays the dual role of enhancing both productivity and resilience in agriculture, but increasing reliance on groundwater for irrigation and the consequent decline in groundwater levels impede the sustainable transformation of India’s agrifood production systems. Although climate change is a significant challenge to the sustainability of agriculture, implementation of climate-smart interventions can significantly improve agricultural productivity and resilience. Changing dietary patterns reinforce the need to reshape agricultural policies to promote diversification of agriculture in favor of nutrient-dense foods, including animal-source foods and fruits and vegetables. Diversification may contribute to the enhanced sustainability of natural resources, mitigate risk, and augment farm income, thereby addressing nutrition insecurity and reducing farm poverty. Enhancing self-sufficiency in specific commodities, such as edible oils and pulses, requires technological advancements and safeguards against low-cost imports.

Year published

2025

Authors

Balaji, Sedithippa Janarthanan; Birthal, Pratap S.; Pal, Barun Deb

Citation

Balaji, Sedithippa Janarthanan; Birthal, Pratap S.; and Pal, Barun Deb. 2025. What do we know about the future of food systems in India? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part Three: What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems in Selected Countries? Chapter 25, Pp. 145-150. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175512

Country/Region

India

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Food Systems; Agrifood Sector; Groundwater Irrigation; Climate-smart Agriculture; Agricultural Productivity; Agrifood Systems; Livestock

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of aquatic foods in global agrifood systems?

2025Chan, Chin Yee; Tran, Nhuong; Hoong, Yan; Sulser, Timothy B.; Aung, Yee Mon
Details

What do we know about the future of aquatic foods in global agrifood systems?

Demand for aquatic foods has increased rapidly due to population growth, rising incomes, and enhanced appreciation for the health benefits of fish. The rapid growth of aquaculture in the past two decades has been the key contributor to meeting the increasing demand for aquatic foods. Aquatic foods are nutrient-rich, generate low emissions and impacts on land and water, and contribute to the human health, well-being, and livelihoods of rural communities. The latest fish foresight studies provide multifaceted insights into future scenarios of technological progress, climate change, population growth, diet transformation, urbanization, investments, and policy shifts in the fish sector and the potential for fish to provide nutrition-sensitive interventions to combat food insecurity and malnutrition at the global, regional, and national level. Further foresight studies are needed to inform policymaking and develop a deeper understanding of the role aquatic foods can play in addressing the nutritional, social, and environmental food systems challenges while navigating the trade-offs of pursuing these different goals.

Year published

2025

Authors

Chan, Chin Yee; Tran, Nhuong; Hoong, Yan; Sulser, Timothy B.; Aung, Yee Mon

Citation

Chan, Chin Yee; Tran, Nhuong; Hoong, Yan; Sulser, Timothy B.; and Aung, Yee Mon. 2025. What do we know about the future of aquatic foods in global agrifood systems? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part Three: What Do We Know About the Future of Selected Food Commodities? Chapter 29, Pp. 172-176. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175523

Keywords

Aquatic Food Systems; Aquatic Foods; Food Systems; Diet; Health; Aquaculture

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of crop pests and diseases in relation to food systems?

2025Petsakos, Athanasios; Montes, Carlo; Pequeno, Diego; Schiek, Benjamin; Sonder, Kai
Details

What do we know about the future of crop pests and diseases in relation to food systems?

Crop pests and diseases (P&D) can cause substantial yield losses and pose a threat to global food security. Losses at a regional level can even exceed 40 percent for crops like maize and rice. Most studies show that a warmer climate creates a conducive, albeit spatially variable, environment for P&D spread. However, existing foresight research is largely biophysical in nature and focuses on individual pathosystems, examined mostly at the national level. As such, projections of the magnitude of economic impacts of changing patterns of P&D are missing. Global assessment of model-based historical and future P&D impacts on food systems remains constrained by the small number of available models that can estimate yield losses under contrasting climate and agroecological conditions. Efforts are needed to improve data accessibility, model versatility, and simulation platforms and to establish international observation and modeling networks. Artificial intelligence (AI) and related methods can assist in the development of robust and adaptable models to capture the impacts of P&D on food systems.

Year published

2025

Authors

Petsakos, Athanasios; Montes, Carlo; Pequeno, Diego; Schiek, Benjamin; Sonder, Kai

Citation

Petsakos, Athanasios; Montes, Carlo; Pequeno, Diego; Schiek, Benjamin; and Sonder, Kai. 2025. What do we know about the future of crop pests and diseases in relation to food systems? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part One: What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems Drivers and Impacts? Chapter 8, Pp. 45-49. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175230

Keywords

Food Systems; Plant Pests; Plant Diseases; Plant Health; Yield Factors; Climate Change; Yield Losses; Pathogens; Artificial Intelligence; Modelling

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of food systems in West and Central Africa?

2025Enahoro, Dolapo K.; Mensah, Charles; Gbegbelegbe, Sika
Details

What do we know about the future of food systems in West and Central Africa?

Food systems in West and Central Africa (WCA) are challenged by slow growth in productivity and incomes and by climate change. Urbanization and related trends are creating new opportunities for the region’s agricultural value chains to meet nutrition and employment needs, including those of women and young people. Climate change poses a significant threat to future agricultural production in the region, and dependence on food imports is mostly projected to increase. Foresight studies that account for the future can help guide the transformation of food, land, and water systems in WCA in response to climate change. However, new analyses are needed to address the multidimensional nature of the region’s challenges.

Year published

2025

Authors

Enahoro, Dolapo K.; Mensah, Charles; Gbegbelegbe, Sika

Citation

Enahoro, Dolapo K.; Mensah, Charles; and Gbegbelegbe, Sika. 2025. What do we know about the future of food systems in West and Central Africa? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part Two: What Do We Know About the Future of Food System in Selected Regions? Chapter 17, Pp. 98-102. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175454

Keywords

Africa; Middle Africa; Western Africa; Food Systems; Productivity; Climate Change; Urbanization; Trade; Imports; Employment; Forecasting

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of pulses in global and regional agrifood systems?

2025Gbegbelegbe, Sika; Msukwa, Wupe; Nedumaran, Swamikannu; Alene, Arega D.
Details

What do we know about the future of pulses in global and regional agrifood systems?

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) account for about 55 percent of global pulse production. Nearly one-half (48 percent) of global production occurs in 16 low- and lower-middle income countries in the drylands of South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The gap between pulse demand and supply is increasing in South Asia. Most recent foresight studies on pulses are focused on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. Future foresight studies on specific pulse crops should target regions where these pulses are important in human diets. Pulse trade should be promoted between countries that encompass the drylands of South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

Year published

2025

Authors

Gbegbelegbe, Sika; Msukwa, Wupe; Nedumaran, Swamikannu; Alene, Arega D.

Citation

Gbegbelegbe, Sika; Msukwa, Wupe; Nedumaran, Swamikannu; and Alene, Arega D. 2025. What do we know about the future of pulses in global and regional agrifood systems? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part Three: What Do We Know About the Future of Selected Food Commodities? Chapter 31, Pp. 183-190. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175526

Keywords

Africa; Asia; Grain Legumes; Food Systems; Dryland Farming; Trade; Supply Balance; Diet; Climate Change

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of maize value chains in a changing climate and agrifood system?

2025Tesfaye Fantaye, Kindie; Sonder, Kai; Pequeno, Diego; Hartley, Faaiqa; Gbegbelegbe, Sika
Details

What do we know about the future of maize value chains in a changing climate and agrifood system?

Population growth, changing diets, and a rapidly growing feed sector are contributing to a sharp increase in global maize demand, which is expected to double by 2050 relative to 2010. Average global maize yield is projected to decrease by 11 percent under a global warming scenario of 2°C (2060–2084) relative to the 1986–2005 period (in the absence of technological change, adaptation, or market adjustments). The feed demand for maize is expected to grow faster in the coming few decades, largely driven by rapid economic growth and diet shifts in highly populated regions in Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America. Meeting the growing demand for maize will require dramatic increases in production, marketing, use, and resilience of maize-based farming systems. While the supply of maize over the coming decades will be constrained by climate change and limited availability of land and water, technological and policy innovations will bring new opportunities. The combined challenges of increasing food demand, persistent poverty and malnutrition, natural resource depletion, and climate change will require the world to double the productivity and boost the sustainability and resilience of maize-based farming systems within planetary boundaries.

Year published

2025

Authors

Tesfaye Fantaye, Kindie; Sonder, Kai; Pequeno, Diego; Hartley, Faaiqa; Gbegbelegbe, Sika

Citation

Tesfaye Fantaye, Kindie; Sonder, Kai; Pequeno, Diego; Hartley, Faaiqa; and Gbegbelegbe, Sika. 2025. What do we know about the future of maize value chains in a changing climate and agrifood system? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part Three: What Do We Know About the Future of Selected Food Commodities? Chapter 30, Pp. 177-182. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175524

Keywords

Maize; Climate Change; Agricultural Value Chains; Food Systems; Production Increase; Agricultural Marketing; Resilience; Diet; Feeds

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of food systems in East and Southern Africa?

2025Tesfaye Fantaye, Kindie; Hartley, Faaiqa; Thomas, Timothy S.; Gbegbelegbe, Sika; Gabriel, Sherwin
Details

What do we know about the future of food systems in East and Southern Africa?

Food demand in East and southern Africa (ESA) is expected to be three to nine times higher by 2050 (relative to 2010), depending on the emerging economic and demographic trends. To meet demand, agrifood systems (AFS) in the region must expand and diversify. Consumption demand for meats and fruits and vegetables will more than triple by 2050, creating economic opportunities but also inclusivity challenges. Transformations in AFS must increase the sector’s resilience to supply-side shocks that threaten food security and nutrition. Favorable policies and investments that are country-specific, inclusive, and sustainable will be powerful tools to shape and influence AFS’s transition in the region.

Year published

2025

Authors

Tesfaye Fantaye, Kindie; Hartley, Faaiqa; Thomas, Timothy S.; Gbegbelegbe, Sika; Gabriel, Sherwin

Citation

Tesfaye Fantaye, Kindie; Hartley, Faaiqa; Thomas, Timothy S.; Gbegbelegbe, Sika; and Gabriel, Sherwin. 2025. What do we know about the future of food systems in East and Southern Africa? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part Two: What Do We Know About the Future of Food System in Selected Regions? Chapter 18, Pp. 103-108. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175455

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Southern Africa; Food Systems; Agrobiodiversity; Demand; Supply Balance; Food Security; Agricultural Production; Income Distribution; Nutrition; Trade

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of roots, tubers, and bananas in relation to food systems?

2025Kihiu, Evelyne; Hareau, Guy; Gbegbelegbe, Sika; Andrade, Robert; Petsakos, Athanasios; Alene, Arega D.
Details

What do we know about the future of roots, tubers, and bananas in relation to food systems?

Root, tuber, and banana (RT&B) crops are vital for food and nutrition security, providing quick calories, buffering against food crises, and offering opportunities for gender empowerment, particularly in seed systems. Their resilience to adverse weather and their sustainable integration into diverse farming systems enhance productivity while minimizing environmental impact. Production and consumption of fresh and processed RT&B crops are projected to increase by 17 percent and 9 percent, respectively, by 2050 in developing countries. Total RT&B production could reach almost 1.4 billion tons, with sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) emerging as the world’s leading supplier of RT&B crops. RT&Bs are mostly nontraded crops, although opportunities exist in some areas, such as intraregional exports of bananas from some SSA countries and cross-border trade of fresh potatoes between countries in Africa and Asia. Improving foresight research on biotic and abiotic stresses, trade, labor, and the efficiency of processing capacity and reducing postharvest losses in RT&B crops could contribute to stabilizing their supply in the developing world, lowering import reliance, and creating local economic opportunities.

Year published

2025

Authors

Kihiu, Evelyne; Hareau, Guy; Gbegbelegbe, Sika; Andrade, Robert; Petsakos, Athanasios; Alene, Arega D.

Citation

Kihiu, Evelyne; Hareau, Guy; Gbegbelegbe, Sika; Andrade, Robert; Petsakos, Athanasios; and Alene, Arega D. 2025. What do we know about the future of roots, tubers, and bananas in relation to food systems? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part Three: What Do We Know About the Future of Selected Food Commodities? Chapter 33, Pp. 196-200. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175531

Keywords

Roots; Tubers; Bananas; Seed Systems; Food Systems; Nutrition Security; Food Security; Postharvest Losses; Abiotic Stress; Biotic Stress

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of measuring food systems?

2025Fanzo, Jessica; Carducci, Bianca; Puma, Michael
Details

What do we know about the future of measuring food systems?

Many food systems-related databases, tools, and dashboards are available, but to ensure these tools are helpful for decision-makers, they must be harmonized and their sophistication increased to capture trade-offs and synergies. The Food Systems Countdown Initiative holds great potential to address this need, but its success will depend on several factors, such as filling national and subnational data gaps, ensuring countries formalize their commitments, translating global ambitions into national contexts, and integrating sectoral policies and programs. A new generation of food systems indicators must capture multifaceted interactions, trade-offs, and synergies by integrating observations, models, and complex system analyses with clear metadata for appropriate use.

Year published

2025

Authors

Fanzo, Jessica; Carducci, Bianca; Puma, Michael

Citation

Fanzo, Jessica; Carducci, Bianca; and Puma, Michael. 2025. What do we know about the future of measuring food systems? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part Four: What Do We Know About the Future of Foresight Data and Analytical Tools? Chapter 35, Pp. 210-215. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175533

Keywords

Food Systems; Measurement; Data; Indicators; Data Collection; Databases

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What are food systems and what can we know about their future?

2025Wiebe, Keith D.; Gotor, Elisabetta
Details

What are food systems and what can we know about their future?

Food systems are made up of the people, resources, and activities involved in the production, processing, distribution, and consumption of food. We cannot know the future of food systems with certainty, but we can make informed projections about alternative possible futures and ways to achieve (or avoid) them. This book provides a mosaic of perspectives from a diverse group of experts on the state of knowledge about different aspects of the future of food systems and how they are interlinked. Pressure on land and water resources is projected to increase, extreme events will become more frequent, and healthy diets will remain out of reach for many, but innovation and improved policies and investments can help address these challenges. Synergies and trade-offs between these different challenges and goals mean that they need to be understood and addressed as integrated parts of dynamic food systems.

Year published

2025

Authors

Wiebe, Keith D.; Gotor, Elisabetta

Citation

Wiebe, Keith D.; and Gotor, Elisabetta. 2025. What are food systems and what can we know about their future? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Chapter 1, Pp. 1-5. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175020

Keywords

Food Systems; Forecasting; Natural Resources; Policies; Uncertainty

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of energy and food systems?

2025Arndt, Channing
Details

What do we know about the future of energy and food systems?

The global energy transition currently in process involves increases in variable renewable energy generation and ongoing electrification of transport and industrial processes, leading to the possibility of absolute declines in the use of coal and petroleum before 2030. This transition creates both opportunities and risks for agrifood systems. Trade will be an important impact channel for net exporters and net importers of fossil fuels, with impacts spilling into the agrifood sector. Improvements in energy technology, particularly solar generation, have broad applications with potentially large implications for agrifood systems.

Year published

2025

Authors

Arndt, Channing

Citation

Arndt, Channing. 2025. What do we know about the future of energy and food systems? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part One: What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems Drivers and Impacts? Chapter 11, Pp. 60-63. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175233

Keywords

Energy; Food Systems; Energy Sources; Energy Generation; Trade; Energy Technology; Renewable Energy; Electrification; Fossil Fuels

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Opinion Piece

Why desk rejections happen and how young researchers can avoid them: Practical lessons from experience

2025Zerfu, Taddese Alemu
Details

Why desk rejections happen and how young researchers can avoid them: Practical lessons from experience

Publishing our work is a critical part of an ECR’s journey. Papers are not always sent out for revision, and it can be discouraging for ECRs to face desk rejections. Here, Dr. Taddese Zerfu shares his insights on how to minimize the chances of facing a desk rejection.

Year published

2025

Authors

Zerfu, Taddese Alemu

Citation

Zerfu, Taddese Alemu. 2025. Why desk rejections happen and how young researchers can avoid them: Practical lessons from experience. ECR Life blog posted July 17, 2025. https://ecrlife.org/why-desk-rejections-happen/

Keywords

Research; Scientists; Periodicals

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Record type

Opinion Piece

Report

Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – June 2025

2025Htar, May Thet; Minten, Bart; Masias, Ian
Details

Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – June 2025

Rice prices declined nationally, falling by almost 20 percent year-on-year, with sharp drops in Kayah and Kayin, but significant increases in Shan (East). Rice prices are lowest in secure, major rice-producing areas and highest in most conflict- and earthquake-affected regions. Export crop prices diverged, with green gram and maize increasing due to strong international demand, while black gram and pigeon pea declined year-on-year due to reduced demand in India. Animal-sourced food prices surged, led by beef (up 47 percent) and pork (up 64 percent), due to rising production and fuel costs, while fish prices rose amid strong export demand and a seasonal fishing ban. Multiple risks lie ahead, including the aftermath of the March earthquake, falling international rice prices, ongoing conflict, and uncertain monsoon season production, all of which may undermine farm income and food security.

Year published

2025

Authors

Htar, May Thet; Minten, Bart; Masias, Ian

Citation

Htar, May Thet; Minten, Bart; and Masias, Ian. 2025. Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – June 2025. Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report: June 2025. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Country/Region

Myanmar

Keywords

Asia; South-eastern Asia; Food Security; Food Prices; Crops; Agricultural Marketing; Rice; Animal Source Foods

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Record type

Report

Brief

Vegetable, fruit, and staple crop production and input use: Baseline findings from the FRESH end-to-end evaluation

2025
Bliznashka, Lilia; Dione, Malick; Zagré, Rock Romaric; Boniface, Simon; Dinssa, Fekadu; Mwambi, Mercy; Mbwambo, Omary; Mwombeki, Wiston; Jeremiah, Kidola; Malindisa, Evangelista
…more Kinabo, Joyce; Cunningham, Kenda; Olney, Deanna K.; Kumar, Neha
Details

Vegetable, fruit, and staple crop production and input use: Baseline findings from the FRESH end-to-end evaluation

In Tanzania, fruit and vegetable (F&V) production is the fastest growing agricultural subsector.1 Production is concentrated among smallholder farmers who face numerous barriers which hamper intensification. These include lack of quality inputs, insufficient financing, limited access to subsidies, limited extension services, and limited and unreliable access to markets. The CGIAR Research Initiative on Fruit and Vegetables for Sustainable Healthy Diets (FRESH), now under the CGIAR Science Program on Better Diets and Nutrition (BDN) Area of Work 3, is testing the effectiveness of its end-to-end approach in Northern Tanzania.2 This approach, described in more detail in Research Brief 1, combines demand, food environment, and supply interventions to increase desirability, affordability, accessibility, and availability of F&V. The supply interventions are designed to address known barriers faced by F&V farmers. For example, the provision of climate-resilient vegetable cultivars tackles the lack of quality inputs, whereas training on safe and sustainable vegetable production, including integrated pest management, tackles limited extension services. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and partners are conducting a longitudinal evaluation to assess the impact of the FRESH end-to-end approach in Tanzania on household vegetable production and F&V intake among women of reproductive age. The evaluation is being conducted among 2,611 households living in 33 villages in five districts in the Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions. In this research brief, we describe baseline findings on the production of vegetables, fruit, and staple crops and the inputs used in production among different types of farming households in the study area.

Year published

2025

Authors

Bliznashka, Lilia; Dione, Malick; Zagré, Rock Romaric; Boniface, Simon; Dinssa, Fekadu; Mwambi, Mercy; Mbwambo, Omary; Mwombeki, Wiston; Jeremiah, Kidola; Malindisa, Evangelista; Kinabo, Joyce; Cunningham, Kenda; Olney, Deanna K.; Kumar, Neha

Citation

Bliznashka, Lilia; Dione, Malick; Zagré, Rock Romaric; Boniface, Simon; Dinssa, Fekadu; et al. 2025. Vegetable, fruit, and staple crop production and input use: Baseline findings from the FRESH end-to-end evaluation. FRESH Research Brief 3. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Keywords

Tanzania; Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Capacity Building; Vegetables; Fruits; Staple Foods; Crop Production; Farming Systems

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Project

Fruit and Vegetables for Sustainable Healthy Diets

Record type

Brief

Report

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: June 2025

2025Siddig, Khalid; Rakhy, Tarig; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Mohamed, Shima; Abushama, Hala
Details

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: June 2025

This report analyzes key market trends in Sudan from February to June 2025, focusing on the prices, availability, and quality of essential commodities—cereals, vegetables, animal products, agricultural inputs, fuel, and exchange rates. Consistent with previous editions, it reveals significant spatial and temporal disparities across Sudan’s 18 states. Cereals showed mixed trends. Wheat prices stabilized in June after a mid-May spike, while sorghum and millet fluctuated modestly. Wheat flour prices continued rising. Perceived availability and quality, particularly of wheat and wheat flour, deteriorated in June, with highest prices in conflict-affected and remote areas. Vegetables—particularly tomatoes and potatoes—experienced sharp price hikes in June, largely due to seasonal pressures and logistical disruptions. Onion prices were more stable but showed regional variation. Animal products faced upward price pressure and volatility. Prices of lamb, beef, and eggs rose steadily; chicken and fish were erratic, and milk prices fluctuated. Availability declined, especially for beef and eggs. Perceived quality improved for meat but dropped for chicken and fish. Other staples, including sugar, cooking oil, fava beans, and oilseeds, had relatively stable trends overall, but prices varied widely by state. Sugar and fava beans rose sharply, particularly in South Kordofan and Kas sala. Agricultural inputs showed moderate price fluctuations. Improved seed varieties remained costlier than local ones, with peaks for wheat and potato seeds. Fuel prices in parallel markets spiked in April–May before easing in June. South Kordofan and Central Darfur recorded the highest prices. Exchange rates continued to diverge between official and parallel markets, with wide regional dis parities—Khartoum, Gedaref, and North Kordofan reported the highest parallel rates.

Year published

2025

Authors

Siddig, Khalid; Rakhy, Tarig; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Mohamed, Shima; Abushama, Hala

Citation

Siddig, Khalid; Rakhy, Tarig; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Mohamed, Shima; and Abushama, Hala. 2025. Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: June 2025. Sudan Market Prices and Availability Report 5. Khartoum, Sudan: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175659

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Africa; Northern Africa; Commodities; Prices; Market Economies; Shock; Capacity Building

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Record type

Report

Opinion Piece

Sudan’s war is an economic disaster: Here’s how bad it could get

2025Siddig, Khalid
Details

Sudan’s war is an economic disaster: Here’s how bad it could get

Year published

2025

Authors

Siddig, Khalid

Citation

Siddig, Khalid. 2025. Sudan’s war is an economic disaster: Here’s how bad it could get. The Conversation. First published online on July 16, 2025. https://theconversation.com/sudans-war-is-an-economic-disaster-heres-how-bad-it-could-get-260609

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Africa; Northern Africa; War; Economic Situation; Economic Sectors; Economic Impact

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Record type

Opinion Piece

Report

Is a negative US agricultural trade balance a cause for concern?

2025Glauber, Joseph W.
Details

Is a negative US agricultural trade balance a cause for concern?

The rising agricultural trade deficit is a relatively recent phenomenon, but it should not be a cause for alarm. Most exported goods face little competition from imports that help consumers meet their year-round demands for fresh fruits, vegetables, and other food products. Lower agricultural export values in recent years reflect the importance of bulk commodities like soybeans, corn, and wheat. Those commodities’ prices have significantly declined since reaching recent highs in 2022. Imported agricultural goods tend to be consumer-oriented products like fresh fruits and vegetables, which have processing and distribution costs that have increased with global inflation. In contrast to prices for bulk commodities, prices for consumer-oriented products have increased significantly since 2022. The Trump administration’s new tariffs may reduce imports and will certainly impose costs on US consumers, but their impact on the agricultural trade deficit is less clear as US agricultural exports could be adversely affected as well, particularly if they face counter-retaliatory tariffs.

Year published

2025

Authors

Glauber, Joseph W.

Citation

Glauber, Joseph W. 2025. Is a negative US agricultural trade balance a cause for concern? AEI Report. Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute. https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/is-a-negative-us-agricultural-trade-balance-a-cause-for-concern/

Country/Region

United States

Keywords

Americas; Northern America; Agricultural Trade; Exports; Imports; Trade Barriers; Tariffs; Commodities

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Record type

Report

Journal Article

Genetic control of seed iron and zinc concentration in Rwandan common bean population revealed by the Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS)

2025
Mukamuhirwa, Floride; Shirasawa, Kenta; Naito, Ken; Rurangwa, Edouard; Ndayizeye, Viateur; Nyombayire, Alphonse; Muhire, Jean Pierre; Govindaraj, Mahalingam; Ohtake, Norikuni; Okazaki, Keiichi
…more Okada, Moeko; Fukai, Eigo
Details

Genetic control of seed iron and zinc concentration in Rwandan common bean population revealed by the Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS)

Common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) is one of the most abundantly consumed legume crops as foods worldwide. In many African countries, this crop is an important staple food because of its rich nutrients. The Great Lakes region of Central Africa, which includes Rwanda, the nation with the highest per capita consumption of common beans worldwide, is known to be a center of common bean diversity in Africa. Increasing the amount of iron and zinc in common bean for biofortification has been a key breeding goal in Rwanda and other countries. In this study, using 192 accessions, including local landraces from Rwanda, breeding materials, released varieties, and others, we performed genome wide association studies (GWAS) to determine the loci governing those traits in addition to other agronomic traits. We identified a locus that was strongly associated with seed zinc concentration and candidate genes. The information might be a great help for marker-assisted breeding of this trait in common bean.

Year published

2025

Authors

Mukamuhirwa, Floride; Shirasawa, Kenta; Naito, Ken; Rurangwa, Edouard; Ndayizeye, Viateur; Nyombayire, Alphonse; Muhire, Jean Pierre; Govindaraj, Mahalingam; Ohtake, Norikuni; Okazaki, Keiichi; Okada, Moeko; Fukai, Eigo

Citation

Mukamuhirwa, Floride; Shirasawa, Kenta; Naito, Ken; Rurangwa, Edouard; Ndayizeye, Viateur; Nyombayire, Alphonse; et al. 2025. Genetic control of seed iron and zinc concentration in Rwandan common bean population revealed by the Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS). Breeding Science 75(3): 187-199. https://doi.org/10.1270/jsbbs.24087

Country/Region

Rwanda

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Biofortification; Common Beans; Genomes; Iron; Zinc

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Record type

Journal Article

Brief

Country profile – Kenya: Gender, climate change, and nutrition linkages

2025Mawia, Harriet; Ferguson, Nathaniel; Bryan, Elizabeth; Thomas, Timothy S.
Details

Country profile – Kenya: Gender, climate change, and nutrition linkages

Agriculture is vital to Kenya’s economy, accounting for 20% of the country’s GDP in 2020. Yet the growth of the sector has slowed in recent years due to unfavorable weather conditions, leading to a reduction in crop and livestock performance (Central Bank of Kenya, 2023). While employment in agriculture has been steadily declining (to 32% in 2023), the sector still employs a large share of the rural population and is the main source of informal employment, rural income, and livelihoods (D’Alessandro et al., 2015; ILO 2025). A majority of Kenyan farmers operate on a small scale and are solely dependent on rainfall (D’Alessandro et al., 2015). However, since the 1970s, the country has experienced significant changes in rainfall pat terns–average rainfall during the long season has decreased while rainfall during other times of the year has increased and the country has experienced more frequent climate extreme events (Kogo et al. 2021). Increased climate variability has negative effects on agriculture and may exacerbate inequalities within the sector. Due to gender inequalities and gender-differentiated roles in agrifood systems, men and women do not experience climate change and variability in the same ways (Balikoowa et al., 2019; Lecoutere et al. 2023). According to the World Economic Forum, women are more vulnerable than men to climate change due to lower education and exclusion from the political and domestic decision-making processes that affect their lives (Gunawardena, 2020).

Year published

2025

Authors

Mawia, Harriet; Ferguson, Nathaniel; Bryan, Elizabeth; Thomas, Timothy S.

Citation

Mawia, Harriet; Ferguson, Nathaniel; Bryan, Elizabeth; and Thomas, Timothy S. 2025. Country profile – Kenya: Gender, climate change, and nutrition linkages. Gender, Climate Change, and Nutrition Integration Initiative Project Note July 2025. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175631

Country/Region

Kenya

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Agriculture; Employment; Climate Change; Extreme Weather Events; Gender; Agrifood Systems

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Record type

Brief

Report

Case studies on efforts to digitalize payments in agri-food value chains

2025Wagner, Julia; de Brauw, Alan; Bloem, Jeffrey R.; Ambler, Kate
Details

Case studies on efforts to digitalize payments in agri-food value chains

Agriculture remains the backbone of rural economies across much of both Sub-Saharan Africa and South and Southeast Asia, employing 54 and 43 percent of the workforce, respectively, and providing livelihoods for most of the rural poor (GSMA, 2020; Nair and Varghese, 2020). Yet, financial transactions in agri-food value chains continue to rely overwhelmingly on cash. The 2021 Global Findex survey finds that most adults in low- and middle-income countries who were paid for agricultural products received their payment in cash. On average, one in four recipients, and fewer than one in six in Sub-Saharan Africa, received agricultural payments into an account (Nair and Varghese, 2020; Demirgüç-Kunt et al., 2022). This reliance on cash introduces a range of inefficiencies and risks, including high transaction costs, security vulnerabilities, lack of transparency, and exclusion from formal financial services (BTCA, 2023a). Digitalizing agricultural payments offers a promising solution to these challenges. Digital financial ser vices (DFS) for the agriculture sector, including mobile money, e-wallets, digital banking, digital credit, savings products, insurance, and e-commerce solutions tailored to agricultural value chains, can facilitate safer, faster, and more transparent transactions while simultaneously connecting farmers and intermediary actors to broader financial ecosystems (GSMA, 2020). By digitalizing payments, farmers can build verifiable financial histories that enable access to formal credit and insurance markets, manage income more effectively, and reduce the risks associated with cash handling. For agribusinesses, digital payments offer substantial operational efficiencies: they lower cash handling costs, improve procurement transparency, support traceability initiatives crucial for compliance with international sustainability standards, and enhance supplier loyalty through faster and more reliable payment processes (Beaman et al., 2014; Nair and Varghese, 2020; BTCA, 2023a).

Year published

2025

Authors

Wagner, Julia; de Brauw, Alan; Bloem, Jeffrey R.; Ambler, Kate

Citation

Wagner, Julia; de Brauw, Alan; Bloem, Jeffrey R.; and Ambler, Kate. 2025. Case studies on efforts to digitalize payments in agri-food value chains. IFPRI Project Paper July 2025. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175632

Keywords

Agriculture; Value Chains; Digital Technology; Rural Economics; Finance

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Record type

Report

Brief

Credit access, demand, and repayment among smallholder farmers in Nigeria: A follow-up analysis

2025Ambler, Kate; Balana, Bedru; Bloem, Jeffrey R.; Maruyama, Eduardo; Olanrewaju, Opeyemi
Details

Credit access, demand, and repayment among smallholder farmers in Nigeria: A follow-up analysis

Access to credit can be important for improving the performance of smallholders, as it enables farmers to purchase inputs while sustaining their livelihoods. In rural Nigeria, however, access to credit—particularly from formal financial institutions—is limited. As a result, farmers often have little to no choice but to depend on alternative credit sources, including informal lending. Small holder agricultural households often turn to friends and family, or local money lenders and other informal and semi-formal sources to meet their credit needs (EFInA, 2020).

Year published

2025

Authors

Ambler, Kate; Balana, Bedru; Bloem, Jeffrey R.; Maruyama, Eduardo; Olanrewaju, Opeyemi

Citation

Ambler, Kate; Balana, Bedru; Bloem, Jeffrey R.; Maruyama, Eduardo; and Olanrewaju, Opeyemi. 2025. Credit access, demand, and repayment among smallholder farmers in Nigeria: A follow-up analysis. IFPRI Project Note July 2025. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175654

Country/Region

Nigeria

Keywords

Africa; Western Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Access to Finance; Credit; Smallholders; Inputs; Repayment of Debts

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Record type

Brief

Report

Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Nigeria

2025Russel, Yeshua
Details

Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Nigeria

Nigeria’s agri-food sector is one of the largest and most complex in sub-Saharan Africa, encompassing diverse crops, regions, actors, and markets. With agriculture contributing approximately 24% to the national GDP and employing over 70% of the rural workforce (CBN, nd), the sector plays a central role in livelihoods, food security, and inclusive growth. Within this sector, agri-food value chains constitute the connective tissue that links smallholder farmers, processors, traders, input suppliers, and consumers, both within the domestic economy and across international markets. Nigeria’s agricultural output is predominantly driven by staple food crops such as maize, rice, and cassava, while export-oriented value chains like cocoa provide significant foreign exchange and economic diversification potential. These chains vary widely in terms of modernization, capital intensity, and integration into digital financial services. Staple crop chains are typically domestic-facing and labor-intensive, offering high employment shares and deep linkages with poverty alleviation. Export-oriented chains, although narrower in farmer reach, tend to offer higher margins, foreign earnings, and exposure to quality standards and global market dynamics.

Year published

2025

Authors

Russel, Yeshua

Citation

Russel, Yeshua. 2025. Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Nigeria. IFPRI Project Paper July 2025. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175658

Country/Region

Nigeria

Keywords

Africa; Western Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Agrifood Sector; Livelihoods; Value Chains; Smallholders; Staple Foods; Exports; Agricultural Value Chains; Digital Technology

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Record type

Report

Report

Women’s economic empowerment and leadership: Examining an intervention for smallholder farmers delivered via farmer producer organizations in Guatemala using qualitative methods

2025Myers, Emily; Heckert, Jessica
Details

Women’s economic empowerment and leadership: Examining an intervention for smallholder farmers delivered via farmer producer organizations in Guatemala using qualitative methods

Women work across multiple nodes in agricultural value chains, though their participation in value chains varies within and across contexts and their contributions are often underrecognized (Malapit et al., 2020; Quisumbing et al., 2021). Addressing issues such as weak economic growth, climate change, and hunger will require strengthening agricultural value chains, though doing so without a gender-sensitive lens may exacerbate existing gender inequalities within them (Rubin & Manfre, 2014). Development practitioners seeking to strengthen agricultural value chains are increasingly interested in programs that use group-based approaches, as they may reach many people efficiently using such a strategy. However, there is not much evidence on how to increase women’s economic opportunities in agricultural value chains and bolster women’s leadership within the context of group-based interventions. TechnoServe, with funding support from the Walmart Foundation, began implementing the Smallholder Market Access (SMA) program in Guatemala and Nicaragua in 2019. The goal of this program was to work with farmer producer organizations (FPOs) and affiliated smallholder farmers in fresh produce agricultural value chains (AVCs) to increase the productivity, profits, and the market share of FPOs among smallholder farmers. The program also sought to strengthen women’s inclusion in AVCs, leadership, and empowerment by offering both gender-responsive and gender-transformative program components, particularly though agronomy trainings and gender equality trainings for women and men, as well as women’s leadership trainings for women only. This qualitative study focuses on SMA in Guatemala. We investigated gender dynamics in FPOs, women’s empowerment, women’s leadership, and how SMA may influence these themes. Ultimately, the goal of this study was to gain insights on the strengths of SMA programming with regard to women smallholder farmers’ economic and leadership opportunities, as well as to identify opportunities to strengthen the program. We collected data from in-depth interviews with eight SMA staff, nine FPO lead ers, and 18 FPO members. We also conducted six single-sex focus group discussions with FPO members, which included 15 women and 13 men total. The FPOs sampled did not receive the full SMA treatment prior to data collection; as such, the results presented in this study reflect perceptions of different components of SMA that had been only partially implemented prior to data collection.

Year published

2025

Authors

Myers, Emily; Heckert, Jessica

Citation

Myers, Emily; and Heckert, Jessica. 2025. Women’s economic empowerment and leadership: Examining an intervention for smallholder farmers delivered via farmer producer organizations in Guatemala using qualitative methods. IFPRI Project Report July 2025. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175619

Country/Region

Guatemala

Keywords

Latin America and the Caribbean; Central America; Women; Women’s Empowerment; Smallholders; Agricultural Value Chains; Market Access; Economic Development; Training

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Record type

Report

Report

IFPRI Malawi Monthly Maize Market Report, June 2025

2025Anderson, Benson
Details

IFPRI Malawi Monthly Maize Market Report, June 2025

Highlights Retail prices of maize increased by 8 percent in June. Prices rose in all regions of Malawi despite continued imports. Maize retailed above the government-mandated price in 13 out of 26 monitored markets.

Year published

2025

Authors

Anderson, Benson

Citation

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). 2025. IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, June 2025. MaSSP Monthly Maize Market Report June 2025. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175617

Country/Region

Malawi

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Maize; Market Prices; Retail Prices; Food Prices; Imports

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Record type

Report

Brief

Wages of the poor and food price inflation: Insights from the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey in Q4 2024

2025Minten, Bart; Aung, Zin Wai; Zu, A Myint; Mahrt, Kristi
Details

Wages of the poor and food price inflation: Insights from the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey in Q4 2024

This research note examines changes in food prices and their effects on the cost of both common and healthy diets, as well as on the purchasing power of casual wages. Data on food prices and casual wage levels were collected through interviews with food vendors in rural and urban areas across Myanmar, conducted between December 2021 and December 2024 as part of the ongoing Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS).

Year published

2025

Authors

Minten, Bart; Aung, Zin Wai; Zu, A Myint; Mahrt, Kristi

Citation

Minten, Bart; Aung, Zin Wai; Zu, A Myint; and Mahrt, Kristi. 2025. Wages of the poor and food price inflation: Insights from the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey in Q4 2024. Myanmar SSP Research Note 122. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175601

Country/Region

Myanmar

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Food Prices; Inflation; Remuneration; Surveys

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Record type

Brief

Working Paper

Double burden or Newfound freedom? Women’s empowerment amid large-scale male labor migration from rural Tajikistan

2025Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Mardonova Tolibkhonovna, Mohru; Pechtl, Sarah; Teirlinck, Charlotte
Details

Double burden or Newfound freedom? Women’s empowerment amid large-scale male labor migration from rural Tajikistan

Labor migration is generally motivated by the prospect of higher earnings abroad, and many migrants support their left-behind household members through remittances. Migrants’ long-term absence from home may, however, also affect intra-household dynamics among those remaining behind. Relying on primary qualitative data as well as quantitative data from 938 married women, we analyze empowerment impacts of migration on women in rural southern Tajikistan. Tajikistan is one of the most remittance-dependent countries in the world. A large share of young men migrates internationally, leaving behind – and often supporting – a multi-generational household. Yet, strong social norms limit the decision-making power and mobility of women, particularly of young women. Whereas senior women report noticeable differences when their spouses migrate, this is far less so for young women who live with their parents-in-law. Our study demonstrates that accounting for a respondent’s position within the household is key to understanding empowerment outcomes of its members.

Year published

2025

Authors

Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Mardonova Tolibkhonovna, Mohru; Pechtl, Sarah; Teirlinck, Charlotte

Citation

Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Mardonova Tolibkhonovna, Mohru; Pechtl, Sarah; and Teirlinck, Charlotte. 2025. Double burden or Newfound freedom? Women’s empowerment amid large-scale male labor migration from rural Tajikistan. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2347. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175568

Country/Region

Tajikistan

Keywords

Asia; Central Asia; Migration; Gender; Households; Women’s Empowerment

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Project

Fragility, Conflict, and Migration

Record type

Working Paper

Working Paper

Commercialization of Papua New Guinea’s vegetable sector: Identifying constraints using quantitative, qualitative, and large language model methods

2025Fang, Peixun; Anamo, Iga; Gimiseve, Harry; Hayoge, Glen; Mukerjee, Rishabh; Schmidt, Emily; Zhang, Xiaobo
Details

Commercialization of Papua New Guinea’s vegetable sector: Identifying constraints using quantitative, qualitative, and large language model methods

This paper evaluates the constraints within Papua New Guinea’s vegetable sector, drawing on large scale household surveys, extensive qualitative interviews with key stakeholders, and Large Language Model (LLM) methods. Our survey data reveal that vegetable production is ubiquitous, with almost all households surveyed (91%) growing at least one vegetable. Indigenous varieties, such as leafy greens (96%) and fresh beans (69%), are widely cultivated across regions, while high-value vegetables like onion (17%) and tomato (19%) show more regional concentration. Over half (53%) of PNG vegetable farmers sell their produce, with farmers located in the nonseasonal highlands agro-ecological area leading in market participation (66%), contributing to an overall commercialization rate of 24% (defined as the share of pro duction sold). However, modern input use, particularly improved seed adoption, significantly lags behind output commercialization in all agroecological zones except the islands survey areas. The quantitative analysis, using the PNG Rural Household Survey 2023, and the qualitative analysis, drawing from both manual review and LLM-assisted processing of in-depth interview notes, consistently identify poor feeder roads as critical bottlenecks for every stakeholder across PNG’s vegetable value chain. Beyond transportation, these interviews repeatedly highlighted persistent seed supply shortages and high seed costs as significant hurdles. Since PNG depends on imported vegetable seeds, several structural and procedural barriers contribute to these shortages. These include potentially arduous quarantine procedures, limited foreign exchange for seed imports, and cumbersome permit processes, often leaving major distributors with insufficient stock. These reported bottlenecks may contribute to the low improved seed adoption and use reflected in the household survey analysis.

Year published

2025

Authors

Fang, Peixun; Anamo, Iga; Gimiseve, Harry; Hayoge, Glen; Mukerjee, Rishabh; Schmidt, Emily; Zhang, Xiaobo

Citation

Fang, Peixun; Anamo, Iga; Gimiseve, Harry; Hayoge, Glen; Mukerjee, Rishabh; Schmidt, Emily; and Zhang, Xiaobo. 2025. Commercialization of Papua New Guinea’s vegetable sector: Identifying constraints using quantitative, qualitative, and large language model methods. Papua New Guinea Food Policy Strengthening Working Paper 7. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175558

Country/Region

Papua New Guinea

Keywords

Melanesia; Oceania; Asia; Vegetables; Large Language Models; Commercialization; Household Surveys; Artificial Intelligence

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Record type

Working Paper

Opinion Piece

How good are livestock statistics in Africa?

2025Abay, Kibrom; Ayalew, Hailemariam; Terfa, Zelalem; Karugia, Joseph; Breisinger, Clemens
Details

How good are livestock statistics in Africa?

Livestock supports the livelihoods of around one billion people in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) (Thorne and Conroy 2017, Baltenweck et al. 2020). However, growth and productivity of the livestock sector in many LMICs are not keeping pace with the increasing demand for animal-source foods. Boosting the sector’s productivity is crucial for poverty reduction in LMICs, which continue to face multifaceted challenges and shocks that threaten the sustainability of food systems. This, in turn, requires reliable livestock data for informing livestock policies and investments. However, there is a significant gap in the quality and reliability of livestock data, which inhibits evaluations of the livestock sector’s role in livelihoods and national economies and therefore impedes evidence-based livestock policies and investments.

Year published

2025

Authors

Abay, Kibrom; Ayalew, Hailemariam; Terfa, Zelalem; Karugia, Joseph; Breisinger, Clemens

Citation

Abay, Kibrom; Ayalew, Hailemariam; Terfa, Zelalem; Karugia, Joseph; and Breisinger, Clemens. 2025. How good are livestock statistics in Africa? VoxDev. First available online July 8, 2025. https://voxdev.org/topic/methods-measurement/how-good-are-livestock-statistics-africa

Country/Region

Ethiopia

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Livestock; Livelihoods; Productivity; Poverty Reduction

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Record type

Opinion Piece

Opinion Piece

How climate-induced conflict is shaping rural Nigeria

2025Bloem, Jeffrey R.; Damon, Amy; Francis, David; Mitchell, Harrison
Details

How climate-induced conflict is shaping rural Nigeria

As climate change stretches Nigeria’s dry seasons and disrupts traditional grazing patterns, tensions between nomadic herders and settled farmers fuel violent conflict—most intensely just before the planting season. New research shows how repeated exposure to violence shifts labour patterns differently by gender and across agricultural seasons. While households often pivot to non-farm enterprise work, these shifts fail to offset economic losses, revealing indirect costs of conflict. Despite policy efforts such as open-grazing bans, violence has surged, highlighting the failure of exclusionary approaches and the need for inclusive policymaking.

Year published

2025

Authors

Bloem, Jeffrey R.; Damon, Amy; Francis, David; Mitchell, Harrison

Citation

Bloem, Jeffrey R.; Damon, Amy; Francis, David; and Mitchell, Harrison. 2025. How climate-induced conflict is shaping rural Nigeria. VoxDev. First available online on July 8, 2025. https://voxdev.org/topic/energy-environment/how-climate-induced-conflict-shaping-rural-nigeria

Country/Region

Nigeria

Keywords

Africa; Western Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Climate Change; Conflicts; Farmers; Households

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Record type

Opinion Piece

Working Paper

Do others’ health count for peanuts? Health, market returns, and pro-sociality

2025Abate, Gashaw T.; Bernard, Tanguy; Deutschmann, Joshua; Fall, Fatou
Details

Do others’ health count for peanuts? Health, market returns, and pro-sociality

Individuals often make decisions considering both private returns and welfare impacts on others. Food safety decisions by smallholder agricultural producers exemplify this choice, particularly in low-income countries where farmers often consume some of the food crops they produce and sell or donate the rest. We conduct a lab-in-the-field experiment with peanuts producers in Senegal to study the decision to invest in food safety information, exogenously varying the degree of private returns (monetary or health-wise) and welfare impacts on others. Producers are willing to pay real money for food safety information even absent the potential for private returns, but willingness to pay increases with the potential for private returns. A randomized information treatment significantly increases willingness to pay in all scenarios. Our results shed light on the complex interplay between altruism and economic decisions in the presence of externalities, and point to the potential of timely and targeted information to address food safety issues.

Year published

2025

Authors

Abate, Gashaw T.; Bernard, Tanguy; Deutschmann, Joshua; Fall, Fatou

Citation

Abate, Gashaw T.; Bernard, Tanguy; Deutschmann, Joshua; and Fall, Fatou. 2025. Does others’ health count for peanuts? Health, market returns, and pro-sociality. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2346. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175569

Country/Region

Senegal

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Western Africa; Food Safety; Health; Groundnuts; Aflatoxins; Smallholders; Returns

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Project

Policies, Institutions, and Markets

Record type

Working Paper

Journal Article

A comparative analysis of food consumption data from 24-Hour dietary recalls and Household Consumption and Expenditure Surveys in Tanzania

2025
Sandalinas, Fanny; Goto, Rie; Bliznashka, Lilia; Azupogo, Fusta; Osman, Mohammed; Kinabo, Joyce; Olney, Deanna K.; Hess, Sonja Y.; Malindisa, Evangelista; Jeremiah, Kidola
…more Joy, Edward JM
Details

A comparative analysis of food consumption data from 24-Hour dietary recalls and Household Consumption and Expenditure Surveys in Tanzania

Objective Household Consumption and Expenditure Surveys (HCES) are increasingly used to assess diets in low- and middle-income countries, but their validity compared to individual-level dietary data remains uncertain. We assessed the strengths and limitations of HCES data for informing strategies to improve diets and nutrition in Tanzania. Design Exploratory analysis of food group consumption estimated from HCES (individualized using the adult female equivalent approach) and 24-hour dietary recall (24hR). We examined concordance and trends by socioeconomic characteristics between methods for 10 food groups and fortifiable food vehicles. Setting and Participants Dietary 24hR of adult women (n=2,599) and HCES data (n=2,604) were collected from the same households in rural Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions in Tanzania. Additionally, food group consumption was estimated using HCES data from the Tanzania National Panel Survey Wave 5 at the national level (n=4,469 households) and for Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions (n=370). Results Dietary patterns were similar using HCES and 24hR data, including low consumption of nutrient-dense foods, while HCES were effective at capturing usual intake of food items eaten episodically. However, compared to 24hR data, energy intakes were substantially lower using HCES data, particularly in large households (42% difference), while there was poor concordance between methods for fruit and meat consumption and for wealth-related trends in cereal and vegetable intake. Conclusion HCES data can provide valuable insights for nutrition policy and planning, however, careful communication and interpretation of evidence is required, given limitations such as assumptions on within-household allocation of foods. Methods development could reduce measurement error.

Year published

2025

Authors

Sandalinas, Fanny; Goto, Rie; Bliznashka, Lilia; Azupogo, Fusta; Osman, Mohammed; Kinabo, Joyce; Olney, Deanna K.; Hess, Sonja Y.; Malindisa, Evangelista; Jeremiah, Kidola; Joy, Edward JM

Citation

Sandalinas, Fanny; Goto, Rie; Bliznashka, Lilia; Azupogo, Fusta; Osman, Mohammed; Kinabo, Joyce; et al. A comparative analysis of food consumption data from 24-Hour dietary recalls and Household Consumption and Expenditure Surveys in Tanzania. MedRxiv preprint available July 6, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.07.03.25330715

Keywords

Tanzania; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Capacity Development; Data; Diets; Nutrition

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Record type

Journal Article

Preprint

Women’s experiences in the food environment and their association with fruit and vegetables intake: Insights from Northern Tanzania

2025
Singh, Nishmeet; Bliznashka, Lilia; Azupogo, Fusta; Marshall, Quinn; Kumar, Neha; Malindisa, Evangelista; Jeremiah, Kidola; Hess, Sonja Y.; Kinabo, Joyce L.; Olney, Deanna K.
…more Jaacks, Lindsay M.; Bellows, Alexandra L.
Details

Women’s experiences in the food environment and their association with fruit and vegetables intake: Insights from Northern Tanzania

Background There is limited information from rural low-income contexts about consumers’ buying behaviours of fruit and vegetables (F&V) and accessibility to F&V in the food environments, which may inform interventions to increase F&V intake. Objectives We examined how women living in rural northern Tanzania experience the food environments by exploring buying patterns, perceptions, and accessibility of F&V, and their association with women’s F&V intake. Methods We used cross-sectional data from 2,597 women living in the Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions. Self-reported experiences of the food environments for F&V included buying frequency, sources, availability, and convenience. Accessibility was measured using geospatial measures of distance and time between home and reported typical buying sources. Data from a 30-day F&V food frequency questionnaire were used to calculate two scores that captured intake frequency and variety. We conducted a descriptive analysis of women’s experience indicators and tested their associations with the scores using multivariable and Poisson regression models, controlling for covariates. Results On average, 5% and 35% of women reported daily buying of F&V, respectively. Fruit was mostly bought from markets: F: 80%, V: 40%. Two-thirds of respondents perceived F&V as available (F: 65%, V: 60%). Median (IQR) distance and time to fruit sources was 9 km (2,19), 39 min (19,78), and to vegetable sources was 3 km (1,10), 32 min (8-69). Compared to women who reported making daily purchases of F&V, those who purchased F&V weekly or monthly reported lower frequency and diversity of F&V intake. Perceptions that F&V were less available and at a longer distance, but not time, were associated with lower frequency and variety of vegetable intake. Conclusion Buying frequency, perceived availability, and distance to markets were associated with women’s F&V intake frequency and variety, underscoring the need to consider these and other factors in food environments to increase F&V intake.

Year published

2025

Authors

Singh, Nishmeet; Bliznashka, Lilia; Azupogo, Fusta; Marshall, Quinn; Kumar, Neha; Malindisa, Evangelista; Jeremiah, Kidola; Hess, Sonja Y.; Kinabo, Joyce L.; Olney, Deanna K.; Jaacks, Lindsay M.; Bellows, Alexandra L.

Citation

Singh, Nishmeet; Bliznashka, Lilia; Azupogo, Fusta; Marshall, Quinn; Kumar, Neha; Malindisa, Evangelista; et al. 2025. Women’s experiences in the food environment and their association with fruit and vegetables intake: Insights from Northern Tanzania. MedRxiv preprint available July 3, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.07.01.25330643

Keywords

Tanzania; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Women; Rural Population; Diet; Food Environment; Consumer Behaviour

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Record type

Preprint

Report

Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Ethiopia

2025Wassie, Solomon
Details

Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Ethiopia

Agriculture is of paramount importance to Ethiopia’s economy. Agriculture accounts for 40 percent of the country’s GDP, 80 percent of export earnings, and employs 75 percent of the population (Tamene & Ali, 2022). Crop and livestock production account for roughly 65 percent and 25 percent of agricultural GDP, respectively (International Trade Administration, 2024). Cereals account for roughly 90 percent of total grain production. Teff, known for its gluten-free nutritional aspect, takes the leading share of cereals by production area (ESS 2022). Ethiopia is also the second-largest wheat producer in Africa, following South Africa, with an expansion potential of 1.3 million hectares (Senbeta & Worku, 2023). Coffee, a crop with high cultural and economic importance in Ethiopia, accounts for 30 percent of exports and 25 percent of total employment. Ethiopia stands as Africa’s leading coffee producer and among the top five coffee producing nations worldwide (Tefera & Torry, 2023). Within Ethiopia’s overall agri-food system, most agricultural value chain activity fits the traditional definition, where subsistence farming dominates, postharvest value addition is minimal, and grain production constitutes the largest share (Barrett et al., 2022). However, some commodities in Ethiopia are progressing from traditional to transitional and modern value chains. The dairy value chain can be considered transitional, as it is characterized by a growing processing and logistics sector and emerging pre-urban supply chains (which disfavor remote regions with high production potential as they need more advanced logistics). The coffee value chain in Ethiopia can be considered as a modern value chain – i.e., characterized by product standardization and quality control aimed at the global market/export (Ambler et al., 2023; Barrett et al., 2022).

Year published

2025

Authors

Wassie, Solomon

Citation

Wassie, Solomon. 2025. Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Ethiopia. IFPRI Project Paper July 2025. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175447

Country/Region

Ethiopia

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Agriculture; Digital Technology; Agrifood Systems; Value Chains; Finance

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Record type

Report

Report

Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Kenya

2025Wairimu, Edith
Details

Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Kenya

Kenya’s agrifood systems are broad and diverse, including both staple food crops and high-value exports which are essential to the economic and social advancement of the nation. The agricultural sector em ploys more than 40 percent of Kenya’s workforce, including more than 70 percent of rural residents, and accounts for about 33 percent of the country’s GDP (FAO, 2023a; FAO, n.d.). The growth of Kenya’s agrifood system is largely driven by domestic market demand rather than exports, a trend driven by rapid urbanization and rising income opportunities in the rural nonfarm sector, which are leading to shifts in dietary preferences and are expected to further influence ongoing structural transformation (Diao et al., 2023). Kenya’s agricultural sector is characterized by several value chains that significantly support economic output, job creation, and trade. Tea is Kenya’s most significant agricultural export, contributing about 2 percent to the overall GDP and 4 percent to GDP in agriculture. Managed predominantly by the Kenya Tea Development Agency (KTDA), which oversees over 60 percent of national tea production, the sector supports approximately 6.5 million people (Tea Board of Kenya, 2024). Tea also contributes around 21 percent of Kenya’s export earnings, which makes it the third-largest source of foreign exchange earnings in the nation after diaspora remittances and tourism (Kilimo News, 2024).

Year published

2025

Authors

Wairimu, Edith

Citation

Wairimu, Edith. 2025. Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Kenya. IFPRI Project Paper July 2025. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175448

Country/Region

Kenya

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Value Chains; Agrifood Systems; Agricultural Sector; Digital Technology; Finance

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Record type

Report

Brief

Rethinking delivery modalities in conflict-affected settings: Why beneficiaries in Sudan prefer digital transfers

2025Abay, Kibrom A.; Abushama, Hala; Mohamed, Shima; Siddig, Khalid
Details

Rethinking delivery modalities in conflict-affected settings: Why beneficiaries in Sudan prefer digital transfers

The recent surge in armed conflicts across Africa is increasing demand for humanitarian and social assistance, creating significant pressure on humanitarian actors to deliver life-saving support amid insecurity and constrained resources. The conflict that erupted in Sudan in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has resulted in the world’s largest displacement crisis, triggering an acute and multidimensional humanitarian emergency requiring urgent and substantial international support. These armed conflicts in Africa are threatening important gains in poverty reduction made in the last few decades. While armed conflicts and associated crises increase the need for assistance, they simultaneously undermine the capacity to deliver it. In conflict-affected settings, the operational environment is often marked by damaged infrastructure, disrupted markets, weakened institutions, and limited humanitarian access. These challenges hinder the effectiveness, targeting, and coverage of social protection and humanitarian aid programs (Ghorpade, 2017; 2020; Lind et al., 2022). Moreover, the proliferation of armed groups—including both state and non-state actors—can obstruct aid delivery or divert assistance, further limiting program reach and impact. Compounding these challenges is a widening humanitarian financing gap, driven by escalating needs and declining donor contributions. In response, development and humanitarian actors are increasingly exploring cost-effective delivery mechanisms to improve efficiency, transparency, and reach of humanitarian aid to vulnerable populations. Among these, digital transfers, including mobile money, offer promising avenues for delivering assistance in fragile settings where conventional approaches may be impractical or insecure. This brief draws on evidence from Sudan to assess the feasibility and demand for digital transfers in humanitarian response. It explores emerging practices and offers insights for policymakers, donors, and implementing agencies aiming to adapt assistance modalities to meet the challenges of protracted crises.

Year published

2025

Authors

Abay, Kibrom A.; Abushama, Hala; Mohamed, Shima; Siddig, Khalid

Citation

Abay, Kibrom A.; Abushama, Hala; Mohamed, Shima; and Siddig, Khalid. 2025. Rethinking delivery modalities in conflict-affected settings: Why beneficiaries in Sudan prefer digital transfers. FCA Policy Brief July 2025. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175477

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Africa; Northern Africa; Conflicts; Aid Programmes; Poverty; Capacity Assessment; Digital Technology

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Record type

Brief

Working Paper

Persistence of individual and social preferences in rural settings

2025Castillo, José Gabriel; Hernandez, Manuel A.
Details

Persistence of individual and social preferences in rural settings

Preferences play a key role in decision-making and are generally assumed as time-invariant in economic modeling despite the mixed empirical evidence. We examine the stability of individual and social preferences in rural settings using the COVID-19 pandemic as a major global shock. We employ a unique longitudinal dataset comprising 1,262 smallholder households, based on interviews with household heads conducted across four survey waves between 2019 and 2022. We find a temporal, two-year shift in risk tolerance, while interpersonal trust and generosity perceptions show a sustained deterioration over three years. We explore possible variations by household characteristics and the degree of exposure to the virus, self-confinement, and extreme weather events.

Year published

2025

Authors

Castillo, José Gabriel; Hernandez, Manuel A.

Citation

Castillo, José Gabriel; and Hernandez, Manuel A. 2025. Persistence of individual and social preferences in rural settings. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2345. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175452

Country/Region

Guatemala

Keywords

Americas; Central America; Covid-19; Decision Making; Extreme Weather Events; Risk; Rural Areas; Stability

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Record type

Working Paper

Journal Article

Do cash transfer programmes affect child anaemia? Results From a meta-analysis

2025Manley, James; Alderman, Harold
Details

Do cash transfer programmes affect child anaemia? Results From a meta-analysis

Childhood anaemia is common and debilitating. Nutrition-specific policies are effective for addressing anaemia in many contexts but less is known about nutrition-sensitive policies such as cash transfers. We reviewed over 4000 studies and gathered 26 estimates of the effect of cash transfer programmes on childhood haemoglobin and anaemia. Overall, neither the impact of cash on haemoglobin (0.065 d/L, CI [−0.054, 0.184]) nor on anaemia prevalence (−0.092, CI [−1.227, 1.042]) were significant. While cash on its own had basically a null effect, programmes that provided cash in combination with other interventions such as behaviour change communication or nutritional supplements were more successful. The impact of social protection on haemoglobin and anaemia is surprisingly understudied compared to height, on which a previous study found well over 100 impacts of cash transfer programmes. Overall impacts of cash transfer programmes on haemoglobin and anaemia are weak: evidence is inconclusive at best. Cash transfer programmes are more successful in combination with other programmes providing education and/or nutritional supplements.

Year published

2025

Authors

Manley, James; Alderman, Harold

Citation

Manley, James; and Alderman, Harold. 2025. Do cash transfer programmes affect child anaemia? Results From a meta-analysis. Maternal and Child Nutrition 21(3): e70026. https://doi.org/10.1111/mcn.70026

Keywords

Cash Transfers; Children; Meta-analysis; Anaemia; Haemoglobin; Social Protection

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Record type

Journal Article

Journal Article

Accuracy of using weight and length in children under 24 months to screen for early childhood obesity: A systematic review

2025Boncyk, Morgan; Leroy, Jef L.; Brander, Rebecca L.; Larson, Leila M.; Ruel, Marie T.; Frongillo, Edward A.
Details

Accuracy of using weight and length in children under 24 months to screen for early childhood obesity: A systematic review

The global increase in early childhood overweight and obesity has prompted interest in early prediction of overweight and obesity to allow timely intervention and prevent lifelong consequences. A systematic review was conducted to assess the accuracy and feasibility of predicting overweight and obesity in individual three to seven-year-old children using data available in healthcare and community settings on children under 24 months of age. This review was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42024509603) and followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. From 7,943 unique articles identified through PubMed, CINAHL, Scopus, and Google Scholar, 14 studies met the inclusion criteria, 13 from high-income countries and one from a middle-income country. These studies evaluated the accuracy of predicting childhood overweight or obesity in individual children using anthropometrics-alone or multiple-predictor models. Anthropometrics-alone models yielded areas under the curve (AUCs) ≥0.56 with expert guidance and ≥0.77 with machine learning. Multiple-predictor models yielded AUC ≥0.68 with expert guidance and ≥0.76 with machine learning. The inclusion of child, parental, and community predictors improved predictive accuracy but led to greater variation in performance across models. Models were more accurate when children were older at the initial assessment, multiple assessments were made, and the time between assessment and outcome prediction was shorter. Prediction models with an AUC ≥0.70 used machine learning to optimize variable selection, limiting their practicality for broad-scale implementation in healthcare or community settings. There is insufficient evidence on the accuracy of overweight and obesity prediction models for children in low- and middle-income countries. Existing prediction models are not well-suited for broad-scale screening of individual children for risk of early childhood overweight or obesity.

Year published

2025

Authors

Boncyk, Morgan; Leroy, Jef L.; Brander, Rebecca L.; Larson, Leila M.; Ruel, Marie T.; Frongillo, Edward A.

Citation

Boncyk, Morgan; Leroy, Jef L.; Brander, Rebecca L.; Larson, Leila M.; Ruel, Marie T.; and Frongillo, Edward A. 2025. Accuracy of using weight and length in children under 24 months to screen for early childhood obesity: A systematic review. Advances in Nutrition 16(7): 100452. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advnut.2025.100452

Keywords

Anthropometry; Children; Infants; Length; Obesity; Screening; Weight

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Record type

Journal Article

Journal Article

A comparison of the effects of local and EAT-Lancet dietary recommendations on selected economic and environmental outcomes in India

2025Singh, Vartika; Stevanović, Miodrag; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Mishra, Abhijeet; Ghosh, Ranjan Kumar; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann
Details

A comparison of the effects of local and EAT-Lancet dietary recommendations on selected economic and environmental outcomes in India

The global discourse is nearly unanimous that dietary transitions are crucial to achieve sustainability goals. In this context, healthy dietary recommendations offer demand-side solutions towards minimizing environmental impacts from food production. However, these guidelines have also faced some criticism for their blanket approach and limited consideration of regional preferences. Using a validated food-economy-environment integrated modelling framework, we compare between two types of healthy diets − the globally recommended EAT-Lancet diets and Indian government’s National Institute of Nutrition (NIN) local diets − by examining their impacts on agricultural production, agricultural commodity prices, food expenditures, trade impacts, Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and water withdrawals. Our results suggest that the adoption of regional recommendations (NIN diets) lead to better outcomes for select economic and environmental indicators. When India shifts to NIN diet, its domestic demand for cereal crops decreases, leading to a 36 % reduction in cereal crop production by 2050 and change in demand for sugars and animal-sourced foods (ASFs). This has the potential to reduce commodity prices of food by upto 24 % by 2050. A shift to the NIN diet in India reduces methane (CH4) emissions by 36 % and N2O by 35 % compared to business-as-usual, performing better than the EAT-Lancet diet, which reduces CH4 emissions by 13 %. Water withdrawals reduce almost by the same value under both the dietary scenarios primarily due to lesser dependence on cereal crops and livestock products. These findings remain consistent in our sensitivity analysis, with varying global trade scenarios, offering greater benefits of food systems transformation through liberal trade policies. Our analysis underscores the pivotal role of regional inclusivity in global assessments, enhancing our comprehension of how food systems can be reimagined to align with both food security and environmental sustainability.

Year published

2025

Authors

Singh, Vartika; Stevanović, Miodrag; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Mishra, Abhijeet; Ghosh, Ranjan Kumar; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

Citation

Singh, Vartika; Stevanović, Miodrag; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Mishra, Abhijeet; Ghosh, Ranjan Kumar; Popp, Alexander; and Lotze-Campen, Hermann. 2025. A comparison of the effects of local and EAT-Lancet dietary recommendations on selected economic and environmental outcomes in India. Food Policy 134(July 2025): 102898. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102898

Country/Region

India

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Agricultural Production; Capacity Development; Environment; Food Systems; Healthy Diets; Sustainability; Water

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Record type

Journal Article

Journal Article

To defer or to differ: Experimental evidence on the role of cash transfers in Nigerian couples’ decision–making

2025Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab; Fafchamps, Marcel; Goldstein, Markus; Leonard, Kenneth L.; Papineni, Sreelakshmi
Details

To defer or to differ: Experimental evidence on the role of cash transfers in Nigerian couples’ decision–making

Year published

2025

Authors

Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab; Fafchamps, Marcel; Goldstein, Markus; Leonard, Kenneth L.; Papineni, Sreelakshmi

Citation

Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab; Fafchamps, Marcel; Goldstein, Markus; Leonard, Kenneth L.; and Papineni, Sreelakshmi. 2025. To defer or to differ: Experimental evidence on the role of cash transfers in Nigerian couples’ decision–making. The Economic Journal 135(669): 1536–1574. https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueae117

Country/Region

Nigeria

Keywords

Africa; Western Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Cash Transfers; Decision Making; Marriage; Gender; Households; Resource Allocation

Language

English

Access/Licence

Limited Access

Record type

Journal Article

Brief

Lessons Learned from Implementing the CAADP Biennial Review Process Under the Malabo Declaration

2025Makombe, T.; Ulimwengu, John M.; Matchaya, Greenwell C.
Details

Lessons Learned from Implementing the CAADP Biennial Review Process Under the Malabo Declaration

The Biennial Review (BR), launched under the 2014 Malabo Declaration, serves as the African Union’s (AU) primary mutual accountability tool for tracking Member States’ progress in implementing the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP). This brief, drawing lessons from four BR cycles, aims to inform the next phase of BRs in preparation for the domestication and implementation of the 2025 Kampala CAADP Declaration. While the BR has prompted policy and programmatic changes in several countries, its full impact is hindered by persistent challenges such as underfunding, weak monitoring and evaluation (M&E) capacities, and data quality issues. Despite these hurdles, innovations like the eBR and national data clusters have led to improvements in data quality and reporting rates. Still further improvements in data systems, capacities, and stakeholder engagement are urgently needed to strengthen the Biennial Review (BR) process. Key recommendations include adopting coherent data governance policies, promoting BR awareness and data utilization, refining the BR scorecard methodology, expanding data clusters to more countries, strengthening M&E capacities, ensuring inclusive BR validation, and integrating the BR database with M&E systems at both national and regional levels. Sustained political leadership, technical support, and domestic funding are critical to institutionalizing a robust, timely, high-quality, and impactful BR process that supports evidence-based decision-making and accelerates progress toward achieving the CAADP agrifood system transformation goals under the Kampala Declaration.

Year published

2025

Authors

Makombe, T.; Ulimwengu, John M.; Matchaya, Greenwell C.

Citation

Makombe, T.; Ulimwengu, John M.; Matchaya, Greenwell. 2025. Lessons Learned from Implementing the CAADP Biennial Review Process Under the Malabo Declaration. Kigali, Rwanda: AKADEMIYA2063. 16p. (Kampala Policy Brief Series 04). doi: https://doi.org/10.54067/kpbs.04

Keywords

Africa; Agricultural Development; Data Quality; Stakeholders; Monitoring and Evaluation; Agrifood Systems

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Record type

Brief

Report

Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Tanzania

2025Valerian, Judith
Details

Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Tanzania

Agriculture is vital to Tanzania’s economic framework, significantly contributing to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). According to the ministerial report on the agriculture sector, the agriculture sector contributed 26.3 percent to national GDP in 2024, an increase from 26.2 percent in the previous year (MOA, 2025). It employed an average of 61.4 percent of the population, a slight decrease from 65.6 percent in 2023. Furthermore, agriculture provides 65 percent of essential raw materials for industries (MOA, 2024). Specifically, crop production recorded a growth rate of 4.2 percent in 2023, up from 2.7 percent in 2022, contributing 16.1 percent to national GDP, an increase from 15 percent in 2022 (MOA, 2024). Agriculture continues to play a critical role in ensuring food security, meeting 128 percent of domestic food demand in 2024 (MOA, 2025). Exports of agricultural products also saw substantial growth, reaching approximately USD 3.54 billion in 2023/2024, a significant increase from about USD 1.2 billion in 2019/2020 (MOA, 2025). Tanzania’s agricultural transformation increasingly relies on modernizing agri-food value chains, especially those linking rural producers to growing urban and export markets, which are seeing a widening price gap. Value addition is essential for improving agricultural productivity and can take multiple forms. Hidayati et al. (2023) categorize value addition based on quality, safety, and market orientation, while emphasizing the importance of social factors such as job creation and food safety, alongside economic aspects such as sales, profitability, and environmental impacts. In agriculture, value addition involves transforming raw materials into finished products and by-products through processes such as drying, processing, packaging, and distribution. These activities enhance the market value of agricultural products, bolster economic growth through job creation, and contribute to food security. Consequently, maximizing value addition is crucial to fully leveraging the potential of Tanzania’s agricultural sector and translating it into measurable economic growth.

Year published

2025

Authors

Valerian, Judith

Citation

Valerian, Judith. 2025. Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Tanzania. IFPRI Project Paper July 2025. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175446

Keywords

Tanzania; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Agriculture; Economic Development; Food Security; Agrifood Sector; Value Chains; Digital Technology

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Record type

Report

Journal Article

Contributions of District Health Information Software 2 (DHIS2) to maternal and child health service performance in Ethiopia: An interrupted time series mixed-methods study

2025Zerfu, Taddese Alemu; Asressie, Moges; Tareke, Amare Abera; Begna, Zenebu; Habtamu, Tigist; Werkneh, Netsanet; Nigatu, Tariku; Jisso, Meskerem; Genta, Addisalem
Details

Contributions of District Health Information Software 2 (DHIS2) to maternal and child health service performance in Ethiopia: An interrupted time series mixed-methods study

Background The District Health Information Software 2 (DHIS2) is the primary digital platform for health management information systems (HMIS) in Ethiopia, aligning with the nation’s digitization strategy. Despite widespread implementation, its effectiveness on key health service indicators, particularly maternal and child health (MCH) services, remain unclear. Objective This study aimed to evaluate the contribution of DHIS2 on data use and the performance of selected MCH indicators in Ethiopia, comparing data before and after the implementation of DHIS2. Methods We analysed data from primary health care units (PHUs) across five diverse regions of Ethiopia, encompassing urban, agrarian, and pastoralist settings. A mixed-methods approach was employed, combining quantitative and qualitative methods to provide a comprehensive understanding of the data. The quantitative component involved examining performance reports of selected maternal and child health (MCH) indicators from 2013 to 2022 to assess changes before and after the implementation of the District Health Information System 2 (DHIS2). Data were collected electronically and analysed using descriptive statistics and interrupted time series (ITS) analyses to identify trends and patterns. The qualitative component included interviews and focus group discussions with health workers and stakeholders to explore contextual factors influencing MCH service utilization and performance. The data were analysed thematically using OpenCode 4.1 software. Results The implementation of DHIS2 significantly contributed to the enhancement of MCH data utilization within PHU facilities. This improvement supported decision-making processes in various aspects of maternal and child healthcare delivery, including target setting, resource allocation, program monitoring, and clinical service provision. Specifically, DHIS2 led to increased monthly mean performance of key indicators such as antenatal care visits, skilled birth attendance, and immunization rates. Notable improvements in service delivery were observed, with significant increases in institutional delivery rates over time. Conclusions The study highlights DHIS2’s significant contribution to improving MCH services in Ethiopia, with increased institutional delivery rates and ANC coverage reflecting enhanced data-driven decision-making. Most facilities relied on DHIS2 for resource allocation and program monitoring, though challenges like offline usage and accessibility persist. To maximize impact, improving offline data management, training staff, leveraging real-time reporting, and addressing accessibility through connectivity investments are recommended.

Year published

2025

Authors

Zerfu, Taddese Alemu; Asressie, Moges; Tareke, Amare Abera; Begna, Zenebu; Habtamu, Tigist; Werkneh, Netsanet; Nigatu, Tariku; Jisso, Meskerem; Genta, Addisalem

Citation

Zerfu, Taddese Alemu; Asressie, Moges; Tareke, Amare Abera; Begna, Zenebu; Habtamu, Tigist; Werkneh, Netsanet; et al. 2025. Contributions of District Health Information Software 2 (DHIS2) to maternal and child health service performance in Ethiopia: An interrupted time series mixed-methods study. Archives of Public Health 83(2025): 173. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13690-025-01641-0

Country/Region

Ethiopia

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Data Analysis; Health; Maternal and Child Health; Performance Assessment

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-NC-ND-4.0

Record type

Journal Article

Brief

Integrating agriculture policies with climate change strategies and commitments in Nepal

2025Chaudhary, Arbind; Babu, Suresh Chandra; Srivastava, Nandita
Details

Integrating agriculture policies with climate change strategies and commitments in Nepal

The world continues to grapple with acute hunger, malnutrition, poverty, income inequality, and other crises. In 2023, approximately 864 million people experienced severe food insecurity (FAO et al. 2024). On the one hand, poor policy adoption disrupts market and supply chain vulnerabilities, exacerbates food insecurity, and causes economic instability and crises (Hélène and Cohen 2020). On the other hand, disasters and extreme weather conditions significantly damage available infrastructure, transportation networks, and storage facilities, disrupting the distribution of agricultural commodities and as well as regular food patterns (Hasegawa et al. 2021). The COP28 UAE Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Action recognizes that agriculture and food systems must urgently adapt and transform to meet the challenges of climate change. It commits to integrating agriculture and food systems into climate action while simultaneously mainstreaming climate action across policy agendas and actions related to agriculture and food systems (UNFCCC 2023).

Year published

2025

Authors

Chaudhary, Arbind; Babu, Suresh Chandra; Srivastava, Nandita

Citation

Chaudhary, Arbind; Babu, Suresh Chandra; and Srivastava, Nandita. 2025. Integrating agriculture policies with climate change strategies and commitments in Nepal. IFPRI Policy Note July 2025. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175444

Country/Region

Nepal

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Agricultural Policies; Climate Change; Extreme Weather Events; Food Systems

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Record type

Brief

Book Chapter

Options for methane mitigation in China’s rice sector

2025Yang, Jintao; Zhang, Yumei; Zhang, Ruizeng; Fan, Shenggen; Zhou, Sheng; Li, Yangyang; Wang, Bin; Yang, Xiaoguang; Chen, Kevin Z.
Details

Options for methane mitigation in China’s rice sector

Methane emissions from rice cultivation in China reached 248 million tonnes of CO2equivalent (CO2eq), representing 26.6% of total agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2021. Model simulations indicate that, due to a declining population and reduced rice consumption, methane emissions could decline by 15.9% in 2035 and by 35.4% in 2060, even without improvements in emission intensity reduction, driven primarily by a reduction in the cultivated area. Nevertheless, methane emissions from paddy fields remain a critical challenge for China in meeting its 2060 carbon neutrality target. Simulation results show that by 2035 and 2060, improved water management practices could reduce emissions by 20.4% and 32.4%, respectively; enhanced fertilizer and organic matter management by 10.6% and 16.8%, respectively; use of improved rice varieties by 3.5% and 6.9%, respectively; and optimized cultivation and tillage practices by 4.1% and 8.2%, respectively. A comprehensive mitigation strategy that integrates all of these measures could achieve total emission reductions by 39.1% in 2035 and by 63.8% in 2060. Despite the potential, scaling up these technologies faces several challenges. Many are still at the pilot or demonstration stage, with their effectiveness constrained by regional environmental conditions, low adoption rates, and insufficient technical support. Moreover, limited awareness, high technical complexity, and high implementation costs further hinder widespread uptake. Overcoming these barriers requires robust policy support, institutional innovation, and coordinated deployment of integrated technologies to facilitate scalable and sustained adoption.

Year published

2025

Authors

Yang, Jintao; Zhang, Yumei; Zhang, Ruizeng; Fan, Shenggen; Zhou, Sheng; Li, Yangyang; Wang, Bin; Yang, Xiaoguang; Chen, Kevin Z.

Citation

Yang, Jintao; Zhang, Yumei; Zhang, Ruizeng; Fan, Shenggen; Zhou, Sheng; Li, Yangyang; Wang, Bin; Yang, Xiaoguang; and Chen, Kevin Z. 2025. Options for methane mitigation in China’s rice sector. In China and Global Food Policy Report 2025: Low-Carbon Transformation of Chinese Agrifood Systems. Chater 2, Pp. 28-46. China Agricultural University. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3hqgUChFy7AyVyvpc46cWQ

Country/Region

China

Keywords

Asia; Eastern Asia; Methane Emission; Methane; Rice; Agrifood Sector; Emission Reduction

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Record type

Book Chapter

Journal Article

What adults in rural South Asia eat and when they eat it: Evidence from Bangladesh, India, and Nepal

2025Scott, Samuel P.; Patwardhan, Sharvari; Ruel, Marie T.; Chakrabarti, Suman; Neupane, Sumanta; Manohar, Swetha; Moursi, Mourad; Menon, Purnima
Details

What adults in rural South Asia eat and when they eat it: Evidence from Bangladesh, India, and Nepal

Year published

2025

Authors

Scott, Samuel P.; Patwardhan, Sharvari; Ruel, Marie T.; Chakrabarti, Suman; Neupane, Sumanta; Manohar, Swetha; Moursi, Mourad; Menon, Purnima

Citation

Scott, Samuel; Patwardhan, Sharvari; Ruel, Marie; Chakrabarti, Suman; Neupane, Sumanta; Manohar, Swetha; et al. 2025. What adults in rural South Asia eat and when they eat it: Evidence from Bangladesh, India, and Nepal. Journal of Nutrition 155(7): 2406-2415. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tjnut.2025.05.014

Country/Region

Bangladesh; India; Nepal

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Diet; Nutrition; Non-communicable Diseases; Adults; Meal Patterns; Rural Areas; Food Intake

Language

English

Access/Licence

Limited Access

Project

Transforming Agrifood Systems in South Asia

Record type

Journal Article

Working Paper

Outcomes and impacts of CGIAR Research Initiatives in Kenya from 2022 to 2024

2025Boukaka, Sedi Anne; Kimaiyo, Faith; Kramer, Berber; Ayalew, Hailemariam; Place, Frank
Details

Outcomes and impacts of CGIAR Research Initiatives in Kenya from 2022 to 2024

Kenya hosted one of CGIAR’s largest portfolios of research and innovation from 2022 to 2024, when pooled funding for the CGIAR was distributed through CGIAR research initiatives. This paper synthesizes CGIAR’s contributions to Kenyan agriculture in that period by triangulating two evidence streams: 148 outcomes logged in the CGIAR Performance and Results Management System (PRMS) and 56 impact assessments published as peer-reviewed journal articles. The analysis shows that CGIAR’s work has catalyzed improvements in seed systems, facilitated refinements in agronomic techniques, and encouraged the adoption of climate-resilient, sustainable farming practices and technologies. These contributions have paved the way for increasing crop productivity, while also supporting key livestock innovations that enhance food safety and bolster the resilience of pastoral communities. Robust local partnerships underpinned several policy shifts and helped align many outputs with the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA). Yet, important gaps persist. Activities are mainly concentrated in easily reached areas rather than being spread across all agro-ecological zones, and outcomes are recorded in an isolated way, obscuring how separate successes add up to systemic change. Peer-reviewed impact evaluations focused on a different set of impact areas than outcomes reported in PRMS, rarely involve cross-center collaborations, and PRMS entries seldom document how evidence, policy uptake, and multidisciplinary collaboration link together. Looking ahead to the next CGIAR Science Programs phase, the paper urges broader engagement with under-served value chains, deeper cross-program synergies, and closer alignment with Kenya’s BETA and MTP IV priorities to foster inclusive, resilient agricultural growth.

Year published

2025

Authors

Boukaka, Sedi Anne; Kimaiyo, Faith; Kramer, Berber; Ayalew, Hailemariam; Place, Frank

Citation

Boukaka, Sedi Anne; Kimaiyo, Faith; Kramer, Berber; Ayalew, Hailemariam; and Place, Frank. 2025. Outcomes and impacts of CGIAR research initiatives in Kenya from 2022 to 2024. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2344. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175411

Country/Region

Kenya

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Agriculture; Agricultural Innovation; Food Systems; Impact Assessment; Resilience

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Record type

Working Paper

Brief

Declining purchasing power of minimum wages in Papua New Guinea: Analysis of economic access to healthy diets

2025Mahrt, Kristi; Schmidt, Emily; Hayoge, Glen
Details

Declining purchasing power of minimum wages in Papua New Guinea: Analysis of economic access to healthy diets

Key Messages To address rising living costs which reduce the purchasing power of the minimum wage, the Government of PNG recently launched a review of the country’s minimum wage. The minimum wage has been PGK 3.50 per hour or PGK 28 per 8-hour day since July 2016. At the beginning of 2025, the minimum wage could purchase about three-quarters as much food and other goods and services compared to July 2016. The cost of a healthy diet per adult per day in urban areas increased by 35 percent from PGK 7.70 in 2021 to PGK 10.37 in 2025. The cost of the healthy diet was the most expensive in Port Moresby—PGK 11.15 per adult per day in 2025 and increased the most in Kokopo (54 percent) from PGK 5.81 to PGK 8.92 between 2021 and 2025. One and a half full-time urban minimum wage earners earn just enough to feed a healthy diet to a family of five in 2025, with no money remaining for essential non-food expenses such as clothing, shelter, transportation, health, and education. The government recently published a public notice of Goods and Services Tax (GST) zero-rating of essential goods effective 1st June 2025 to 30th June 2026. We re-evaluate the purchasing power of a minimum wage by decreasing the price of tinned tuna and rice by 10% (reflective of the GST zero-rating) on Q1 2025 recorded prices. Assuming prices remain constant (with no shifts in demand due to decreased tax), the cost of the average urban healthy diet in the first quarter of 2025 is 4.7 percent lower without the GST (PGK 9.87) compared to the cost of a healthy diet with the GST (PGK 10.35) — slightly improving the purchasing power of minimum wage earners.

Year published

2025

Authors

Mahrt, Kristi; Schmidt, Emily; Hayoge, Glen

Citation

Mahrt, Kristi; Schmidt, Emily; and Hayoge, Glen. 2025. Declining purchasing power of minimum wages in Papua New Guinea: Analysis of economic access to healthy diets. Papua New Guinea Project Note 20. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175410

Country/Region

Papua New Guinea

Keywords

Oceania; Economics; Purchasing; Healthy Diets; Consumer Behaviour

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Record type

Brief

Poster

Preservation of the IFPRI record: Moving 50 Years of research

2025Plummer, Leigh; Miller, Ryan; Yerramareddy, Indira
Details

Preservation of the IFPRI record: Moving 50 Years of research

As the International Food Policy Research Institute approaches a half-century of agricultural research, the Communications Unit has taken the opportunity to review the legacy of both our organization and our researchers. As part of this effort, the Knowledge Management team spent a year migrating over 25,000 metadata records, including about 13,000 with a PDF file attached, from an Institutional Repository (CONTENTdm) to a shared Consortial Repository (CGSpace based on DSpace). In the process, we have improved the metadata and worked to conform our records with the different standards of the shared environment and ensure continued discoverability and usability. We were also able to identify key gaps in our open access holdings and added PDF files were possible. We continue to validate the metadata and holdings, including additions of chapter records that were previously missing. Our project has led to a greater role for our team on the shared platform and we have trained other CGIAR centers on how to successfully migrate their collections.

Year published

2025

Authors

Plummer, Leigh; Miller, Ryan; Yerramareddy, Indira

Citation

Plummer, Leigh; Miller, Ryan; and Yerramareddy, Indira. 2025. Preservation of the IFPRI record: Moving 50 Years of research. Poster presented at the American Library Association (ALA) Annual Conference, Philadelphia, PA, June 29, 2025. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175252

Keywords

Digital Libraries; Library Sciences; Information Science; Institutional Development; Knowledge and Information Systems; Knowledge Management

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Record type

Poster

Data Paper

Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey Round Five: Note on Sample Characteristics and Weighting

2025Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity
Details

Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey Round Five: Note on Sample Characteristics and Weighting

The Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey (MAPS) is a nationally and sub-nationally representative phone survey with the objective of collecting bi-annual data on agricultural indicators including crop production and sales, input use, crop marketing, farm and livestock assets, and farm services. The Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) is a nationally and sub-nationally representative phone survey with the objective of collecting bi-annual data on household and individual welfare indicators, including poverty, food security, dietary quality, subjective wellbeing, and coping strategies. MAPS is a sub-sample survey that includes farming households from MHWS. There are five Rounds of MAPS. MAPS Rounds 1, 3, and 5 were conducted between January and March 2022 and 2024 and collect recall data on monsoon production. MAPS Round 2 and 4 were conducted between June and September 2022 and 2023 and collect recall data on dry season production (pre/post monsoon season). MAPS Round 5 consists of 11 modules (A-K) that are each included in the clean dataset and unique by household ID (hhid). Modules A, B, and J are introductory and closing modules that only include information on the call and confirmation of demographic information connected to MHWS. The remaining modules provide data on farmer demographics and agricultural production and marketing. Module C consists of background and demographic information. This includes data on farmer demographics along with farm area and crops grown. Module D provides data on rice production and sales for monsoon 2022 and 2023, including rice variety, amounts produced and sold, and farmgate prices. Module E contains similar information to Module D but pertaining to pulses and oilseeds. Module F consists of data on farm input use including purchased inputs, mechanization, labor, and the effect of natural shocks. Module G presents information on crop marketing and Module H provides data on farm and livestock assets. Module I contains data on farm services including agricultural extension, credit, mobility issues in the community, travel times to access services, contract farming, crop residues, and changes in rice consumption and paddy growing practices. Module K contains information on changes in rice consumption and paddy growing practices.

Year published

2025

Authors

Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity

Citation

Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity. 2024. Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey Round Five: Note on Sample Characteristics and Weighting. Data Paper. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

Country/Region

Myanmar

Keywords

South-eastern Asia; Asia; Household Surveys; Data; Rural Areas; Farmers; Welfare; Agricultural Production

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Record type

Data Paper

Software

Political violence in the G5 Sahel countries — Conflict diffusion indicator: Methodology and implementation

2025Hema, Aboubacar; Marivoet, Wim
Details

Political violence in the G5 Sahel countries — Conflict diffusion indicator: Methodology and implementation

The Conflict Diffusion Indicator, as defined by ACLED, measures the proportion of a country’s geographic area experiencing high levels of violence. This indicator assesses the geographic spread of conflict across administrative level 2 (adm2) regions, using a 10km-by-10km spatial grid. This document outlines the methodology and implementation steps for computing the indicator for the Sahel region (2018 data) using Google Earth Engine (GEE).

Year published

2025

Authors

Hema, Aboubacar; Marivoet, Wim

Citation

Hema, Aboubacar; and Marivoet, Wim. 2025. Political violence in the G5 Sahel countries — Conflict diffusion indicator: Methodology and implementation. Prepared for World Food Programme (WFP) Presentation June 27, 2025. Github. https://github.com/Abson-dev/Political-Violence-in-the-G5-Sahel-Countries/tree/main

Country/Region

Senegal; Gambia; Mauritania; Guinea; Mali; Burkina Faso; Niger; Chad; Cameroon; Nigeria

Keywords

Africa; Northern Africa; Eastern Africa; Western Africa; Capacity Development; Conflict Management; Methodology; Violence

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Record type

Software

Working Paper

Landscape complexity as determined by socioeconomic trends, climate change, and broad agricultural policies: A study on multifunctional landscapes

2025Cenacchi, Nicola; Petsakos, Athanasios; Robertson, Richard D.; Song, Chun; Mishra, Abhijeet
Details

Landscape complexity as determined by socioeconomic trends, climate change, and broad agricultural policies: A study on multifunctional landscapes

Food systems face dire challenges, including climate change, biodiversity loss, and resource overuse. To ensure their long-term sustainability and resilience they need urgent transformation, while continuing to support livelihoods and address rising food insecurity. The design and management of multifunctional agricultural landscapes offer a pathway to address these challenges; and improved understanding of landscape complexity, including a diverse mix of natural and cropland covers, can help advance achievement of multiple food system goals. As land managers and decision makers plan for the future of our landscapes, they need to recognize that powerful forces outside their control will have a strong influence on the final outcome. This study explores the interplay between global drivers—such as population growth, economic trends, climate change—and landscape complexity, using a modeling system linking a global agricultural economic model to a land-use model. Global trends are described, and Kenya serves as a case study, representing broader local dynamics. Results indicate that the majority of agricultural landscapes, globally and in Kenya, are projected to experience increased complexity by 2050, primarily through cropland expansion at the expense of natural habitats. However, there are a few instances where an expansion in cropland may be liked to a decrease in landscape complexity. Patterns also vary under alternative scenarios of agricultural development. Where greater complexity is achieved through policies that further concentrate agricultural land in some areas, this is mainly associated with net gains in natural habitats and a contraction of cropland. Overall, this preliminary research underscores the need for integrated landscape management and more comprehensive scenarios to inform sustainable land-use planning aligned with global food security and environmental objectives.

Year published

2025

Authors

Cenacchi, Nicola; Petsakos, Athanasios; Robertson, Richard D.; Song, Chun; Mishra, Abhijeet

Citation

Cenacchi, Nicola; Petsakos, Athanasios; Robertson, Richard D.; Song, Chun; and Mishra, Abhijeet. 2025. Landscape complexity as determined by socioeconomic trends, climate change, and broad agricultural policies: A study on multifunctional landscapes. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2343. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175363

Keywords

Landscape; Socioeconomics; Climate Change; Agricultural Policies; Land-use Change; Modelling

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Project

Foresight

Record type

Working Paper

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