Publications and Datasets

The complex economics of a complete ban on child labor in the cobalt supply chain: The case of the DR Congo

Traders and agri-food value chain resilience: The case of maize in Myanmar

Private sector promotion of agricultural technologies: Experimental evidence from Nigeria

Private sector agricultural businesses are critical for scaling new and potentially environmentally-friendly technologies, though much attention has focused on public agricultural investment. Working with a private firm, we conduct an experiment testing the effectiveness of alternative marketing strategies for promoting the adoption of urea super granule fertilizer (USG) among rice farmers in Nigeria. We disentangle the effects of price discount vouchers and the firm’s standard marketing package. We find that the firm’s standard marketing increases the adoption of USG fertilizer by 24 percentage points while reducing prilled urea utilization by 17 percentage points. Discount vouchers increase adoption of USG by an additional eight percentage points, but are not profitable for the firm. Although the adoption of USG leads to substantial environmental benefits by reducing nitrogen loss, farmer rice yields did not increase. Thus, despite the potential public benefits, private incentives facing firms and farmers are insufficient to drive scaling after a one-year intervention.

Herder-related violence, labor allocation, and the gendered response of agricultural households

Violent conflict between nomadic herders and settled agricultural communities in Nigeria occurs as both groups clash over the use of land and natural resources, in part, due to a changing climate. We generate theory and evidence to study the labor responses of individuals within agricultural households to herder-related violence and consider a “shadow of violence” mechanism, whereby previous exposure to a violent event alters labor responses to a recent event. Using panel data from 2010 through 2019, we highlight how exposure to violence can lead to differing responses in the planting or harvest seasons and among men or women. In the planting season, among both men and women living in households with no previous exposure to herder-related violence, we find that exposure (i.e., singular exposure) leads to a reduction in household enterprise work, but among households with previous exposure experience, exposure (i.e., repeated exposure) leads to an increase in household enterprise work. Meanwhile, repeated exposure to herder-related violence reduces agricultural work among men only. This leads total hours worked to decline in response to singular exposure and to increase in response to repeated exposure especially among women. In the harvest season, we find that singular exposure increases agricultural work among both men and women, but repeated exposure reduces agricultural work among men only. JEL Codes: E26, E29, I31, Q12

The agrifood-system wage gap and structural transformation: cross-country evidence

Evidence from high income countries shows that the gender pay gap in wage employment has decreased over time, though it has not closed. However, little evidence exists on how the gender wage gap varies as countries undergo processes of structural transformation that lead to rising wages and a shift in employment from primary agricultural production. Disaggregating agricultural, agrifood-system and non-agrifood-system wage employment, this study provides empirical estimates of the gender pay gap across countries at different stages of structural transformation. Based on a multi-country dataset and using the Kitagawa-Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition approach, the study sheds light on the different factors driving the pay gap along the structural transformation process. Our analysis shows significant gender gaps in both agrifood systems and non-agrifood systems that do not always decrease with structural transformation. Both differences in female and male employee’s observed characteristics and differences in returns continue to contribute to gender gaps, suggesting the need for gender-responsive policies to address the underlying factors that drive these gaps.

Achieving transformational sustainable land Intensification: Integrated general equilibrium and portfolio analysis for Senegal

Feeding a growing global population while conserving natural resources remains a central challenge of Sustainable Intensification (SI). Despite decades of SI efforts, cropland expansion in many developing countries continues to accelerate, contributing to deforestation and biodiversity loss. Even with observed increases in crop yields, studies suggest that farmers continue to expand cropland, underscoring the need to consider market dynamics and the economywide effects of productivity gains. This study offers a new perspective on achieving transformational sustainable land intensification by treating farming activities as investment decisions shaped by risk and return under production and markets uncertainties. Unlike the traditional SI strategies that focus on efficiency gains through improved inputs or agronomic practices, we apply an optimal portfolio analysis to cropland allocation, aiming to enhance farming efficiency by considering market interconnections across sectors. Using Senegal as a case study, we demonstrate that adopting an optimal diversification strategy on new cropland investment could reduce land expansion needs by up to 68 % by 2030. This strategy not only helps mitigate emissions and reduce water footprint but also enhances crop biodiversity. Socioeconomic and environmental benefits are found to be greater when the country promotes high-value crops in its portfolio, such as fruits and vegetables, compared to grain crops. Our findings also contribute to ongoing debates around land-sparing versus land-sharing strategies and offer new insights into the drivers of cropland expansion in light of current global land use patterns.

Profiling Chinese entrepreneurs

Entrepreneurship has played a crucial role in China’s economic growth. However, research has predominantly focused on listed firms and state-owned enterprises, overlooking the vast number of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) due to data paucity. Limited knowledge exists on the characteristics of entrepreneurs, particularly those in the SME sector. This study aims to address this knowledge gap by profiling two types of Chinese entrepreneurs: self-employed and incorporated private business owners. The analysis utilizes data from two large surveys of entrepreneurs and salaried workers conducted in the same six provinces of China (N = 8948, comprising 3218 self-employed entrepreneurs, 1338 incorporated entrepreneurs, and 4392 salaried workers). The comparison reveals that self-employed entrepreneurs share more similarities with incorporated entrepreneurs than salaried workers in terms of key personality traits. Both groups of entrepreneurs exhibit higher risk tolerance, greater trust in others, and stronger interpersonal skills compared to their salaried counterparts. On the other hand, self-employed entrepreneurs align more closely with salaried workers in terms of human capital and family background than with incorporated entrepreneurs. The findings suggest that equalizing opportunities, particularly in education, could pave the way for self-employed entrepreneurs to transition into incorporated entrepreneurship.

Women’s tenure security on collective lands: A conceptual framework

Within discussions of land and resource rights, there is growing attention to women’s rights, mostly in terms of household and individual rights to private property. This leaves unanswered questions about whether and how women’s land rights can be secured under collective tenure, upon which billions of people worldwide depend. There is an important gap in conceptual tools, empirical understanding, and policy recommendations on this topic. To address this gap and lay the foundations for a sound body of empirical studies and appropriate policies, we develop a conceptual framework to improve understanding of women’s land rights under collective tenure. We discuss what secure tenure for women on collective lands would entail, then what factors would affect women’s tenure security. We give attention to particularities of rangelands, forests, and other types of collective lands as well as commonalities across types. A key theme that emerges is that for women to have secure tenure under collective tenure, the collective (group) itself must have tenure security and the women must have secure rights within this collective. The latter requires us to consider the governance structures, how men and women access and control land, and the extent to which women have voice and power within the collective. More consistent analyses of collective tenure systems using the conceptual framework presented in this paper can help to identify which action resources are important for groups to secure rights to collective lands, and for women to advocate for their rights within the group.

A comparative study of the legal and regulatory dimension of seed sector development in Sub-Saharan Africa using regulatory systems maps: The case of Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Uganda

Agency and behavior change in agricultural research for development: New directions for guiding agri-food system transformations

CONTEXT Agri-food system transformations require change across sectors and actors within the system. Initiatives contributing to these changes need to connect system change processes to individual and collective agency and behaviors. OBJECTIVE We propose a conceptual framework on agency and behavior change for transforming agri-food systems (ACT framework). ACT emphasizes agri-food system actors’ behaviors with attention to their power, agency, and the influence of structural agri-food system elements. Researchers can apply ACT to assess an initiative’s contributions to changes in system elements through individual and collective behaviors. METHODS We conducted literature reviews and key informant interviews for 29 initiative case studies. Using ACT, we identified patterns in terms of initiatives’ targeted actors, behaviors, and the factors shaping actors’ agency and behavior. We then applied ACT in an initiative in Zimbabwe to develop a theory of change that links behavior change pathways with broader systems transformation. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS The reviewed initiatives focused heavily on shaping producers’ behavior through knowledge transfer, less often considering other actors and structural challenges and opportunities. Key informants frequently reported enablers and impediments to achieve initiative outcomes that were associated with structural system elements. Few were able to articulate their initiative’s theory of change and underlying assumptions. SIGNIFICANCE ACT can support a more diverse and theory-based exploration of agri-food system initiatives’ target actors, behaviors, and factors shaping behaviors. Development professionals can apply the ACT framework to design more effective TOCs that attend to diverse actor groups and leverage the factors influencing these actors’ agency and behaviors.

Perspective: Growth monitoring and promotion as an opportunity to improve early childhood development

Growth monitoring and promotion (GMP) visits provide a frequent contact point with caregivers which can be an opportunity for the promotion of early child development (ECD). Using a combination of quantitative analyses of longitudinal and cross-sectional data and a review of the literature, we investigated whether the GMP platform could improve ECD by identifying children at risk of poor development and delivering responsive parenting education to caregivers of young children. Cross-sectional and lagged regression analyses and area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) indicated that growth indices were not accurate predictors of concurrent and later child development. Rather, validated tools, such as the Ages and Stages Questionnaire or the Survey of Well-being of Young Children, could be utilized during GMP visits to screen individual children for suboptimal development. Through a review of published literature on ECD interventions, we identified 10 light-touch ECD interventions which could feasibly be implemented during GMP visits, but only half have been evaluated for their effectiveness. Our findings demonstrate that, while growth indices cannot accurately identify children at risk of suboptimal development, the GMP platform could offer an opportunity to screen children for suboptimal development and to deliver ECD interventions. Further evidence on the implementation and effectiveness of light-touch parenting programs, however, is required.

What do we know about the future of poverty in relation to food system transformation?

Global poverty declined rapidly over the past 25 years, from around 30 percent to 8.5 percent today, but a series of global crises caused the pace of poverty reduction to slow down from 2020 onward. Some regions have done well; for instance, the East Asia and Pacific region has now effectively eliminated extreme poverty, a Sustainable Development Goal (SDG), while extreme poverty in South Asia is expected to be eradicated by 2030. But with almost no further reduction in the extreme poverty rate in sub-Saharan Africa until 2030, the number of poor people in this region will expand by 10 percent to reach 500 million. This means that by 2030, around 80 percent of the global population of poor people will live in sub-Saharan Africa. Poverty and food systems are closely intertwined. Both theory and evidence support the notion that investments in the food system that reduce food prices or create jobs in the food system will be highly effective at reducing poverty, and likely more so than investments outside of the food system, especially during the earlier stages of a country’s development. With respect to investments within the food system, since the majority of the world’s extreme poor are engaged in farming, investments in the on-farm part of the food system are likewise more effective at reducing extreme poverty than off-farm investments, such as in processing, distribution, and food services. However, rural-urban migration and structural shifts in employment into off-farm jobs, combined with growing demand for processed foods from retail or food service outlets, will gradually increase the poverty-reducing impacts of off-farm investments. Foresight analysis can help policymakers anticipate employment and dietary shifts and allocate their food system investments in a way that would maximize their impact on extreme poverty. Policies and investments designed to facilitate food systems transformation may be associated with trade-offs across development outcomes. For instance, while investments in staple crop productivity may be most effective at reducing poverty and calorie availability, they may not contribute to improving dietary quality or health outcomes, which are also important SDGs. Likewise, regulations that encourage the adoption of environmentally conscious food production processes, also central to several of the SDGs, may raise the cost of food, with negative consequences for poverty. At the same time, inaction now to facilitate a transition toward more sustainable food systems will contribute to conflicts, disasters, physical displacement, and adverse health and economic outcomes in the future, the burden of which will fall disproportionately on future generations of poor people. Foresight analysis can help policymakers understand these trade-offs as they consider alternative investment choices and measures to protect vulnerable populations from any adverse impacts.

What do we know about the future of food systems in Central and West Asia and North Africa?

The subregions of Central and West Asia and North Africa (CWANA) will continue to import around 50 percent of domestic food requirements by 2050. Natural resources will continue to degrade in the CWANA region until 2050 and beyond. Agrifood systems transformation in CWANA can be facilitated by fast-tracking technology transfer approaches, leading to sustainable productivity growth. Foresight analyses are needed to generate scenarios of agrifood system transformation in CWANA, with a focus on reducing trade and importation risks related to international market volatility.

What do we know about the future of diets and nutrition?

Diets continue to evolve and nutrition challenges are changing as diets shift from traditional to more modern ones that are higher in animal-source foods, refined grains, and processed and ultra-processed foods; high in saturated fats, sugar, and salt; and low in fiber. Important progress, though uneven, has been made over several decades in improving diets and nutrition, but these trends have reversed or slowed since 2010. Undernutrition has decreased over time, while micronutrient deficiencies have not. Overweight and obesity are rapidly rising in all low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and remain high in high-income countries. Multiple burdens of malnutrition coexist within countries, regions, communities, households, and individuals. Nutrition literature increasingly highlights the multiple burdens of malnutrition but rarely looks explicitly at future trajectories for nutritional indicators. Simulation studies explore alternative futures explicitly and give a good indication regarding dietary trends but are limited with respect to nutritional outcome trends. A critical need and opportunity exist for more work that combines nutrition with foresight modeling, particularly with a focus on LMICs.

What do we know about the future of the agrifood system in South Africa?

South Africa’s primary agriculture sector witnessed profound productivity growth in recent decades, yet structural transformation is stalling due to a combination of sluggish nonfarm growth and persistent structural challenges that inhibit wider societal progress. Looking ahead, the agrifood system is well placed to increase the supply of goods at competitive prices but requires consistency in policymaking and an investment-friendly environment, as well as stronger domestic demand for products. Given the complexity and interconnectedness of the country’s agrifood system, future foresight research should focus on better understanding cross-sector productivity gains and how the entire system can be reoriented to support greater agricultural transformation.

What do we know about the future of food systems in South Asia?

Micronutrient availability in South Asia is projected to increase by 46 percent by 2050, reflecting a significant transition from traditional cereal-based diets to diverse, nutrient-rich foods, though affordability limits access for low-income groups. The shift from traditional diets to processed foods has led to an increase in obesity and diet-related noncommunicable diseases. Rising demand for animal-source foods also puts pressure on local resources and increases reliance on imports. Agriculture in South Asia relies heavily on freshwater, primarily groundwater, which is critically overused. Additionally, soil degradation and the burning of crop residues contribute to air pollution and pose risks to the sustainability and productivity of the region’s agricultural land. Climate change is expected to significantly affect crop yields, particularly for staples such as rice, wheat, and maize, with projected reductions by 2050. This climate impact will exacerbate food insecurity in the region, especially as food demand continues to grow. Current foresight studies often overlook the impacts of unexpected external shocks, such as pandemics and the Russia-Ukraine war, on agriculture and food systems. Addressing these research gaps and focusing on context-specific technological solutions, climate-smart practices, and self-sufficiency could enhance resilience and sustainability across South Asia’s agrifood sector.

What do we know about the future of animal-source foods and food systems?

Urbanization and income growth lead to more diverse diets and increased consumption of animal-source foods (ASF) in lower-income countries, while in some higher-income countries, consumer preferences may slowly be shifting away from ASF. A significant shift in diets is projected for lower-income countries, with the demand for ASF expected to increase by 20 percent in absolute kcal/person/day terms under conditions of baseline socioeconomic trends to 2050. Projected shifts in ASF consumption will disrupt local-to-global food production and distribution, but most attention has focused on its implications for nutrition and health, climate, and the environment, with less attention to socioeconomic and livelihood impacts. Strategies proposed for addressing the complex and multidimensional future impacts of changes in ASF demand, production, and distribution need further exploration.

What do we know about the future of agrifood systems in Southeast Asia?

The food systems of Southeast Asia (SEA) are projected to be under increasing pressure due to multiple drivers, including population growth, urbanization, biodiversity loss, and the uncertainties stemming from climate change. Rice and fish will remain staple foods and the backbone of diets in the region’s rural and urban areas. In 2019, SEA produced 72 percent of the world’s aquatic food products and 25 percent of the world’s rice. Rice accounts for 50 percent of calorie intake for its population, while fish contributes more than 50 percent of per capita average animal protein intake. These shares are expected to rise over the next several decades due to population growth. Production and consumption of staple foods are expected to fall due to the impacts of climate change, potentially jeopardizing food and nutrition security in the region and beyond. The projected magnitude of climate change impacts on rice production varies greatly, depending on the models used. Previous regional foresight studies have explored the implications of climate change on food production in SEA, but other driving forces and outcomes of food systems transformation have received less attention.

What do we know about the future of land in relation to food systems?

The total amount of cropland across the globe is likely to expand over the next three decades due to rising demand for food along with feed for livestock. Pasture will likely be stable or contract as livestock production continues to shift away from grazing and toward intensive use of feed and transported fodder. Climate change will increase the overall challenge and drive additional cropland expansion by generally reducing potential yields, although some crops and locations will benefit (typically higher latitudes and, to a lesser extent, higher elevations). Natural land will be displaced by cropland in some areas. In particular, forests in the tropics are at greater risk of conversion than in other regions. Beyond cropland incursion, the types, mixes, and footprints of natural vegetation may be affected by climate change.

What do we know about the future of food trade?

Trade in agriculture and food products increased dramatically over the past 20 years, driven by population and income growth that resulted in consumption exceeding production in many countries. Productivity growth grew as well, allowing countries with surplus production to meet global import demand. Reforms in the global trading system have reduced import barriers, also encouraging trade. As a result, imports as a percentage of total consumption have increased steadily (particularly in low-income countries) and forecasts for the near term (next 10 years) as well as longer-term projections (to 2050) suggest that these trends will continue. Climate change will pose continued challenges as production shifts due to increased temperatures and more variable rainfall. Trade will be necessary to help mitigate the impacts of these changes, so the global trading system must remain open and free of harmful distortions.

What do we know about the future of urbanization in relation to food systems?

The world is urbanizing rapidly. The global urban population increased from 2.87 billion in 2000 to 4.38 billion in 2020, a 53 percent rise, and is projected to reach 6.57 billion by 2050, representing 68 percent of the world’s population (World Bank 2024a). Urbanization is often associated with structural economic transformation, marked by a growing share of nonagriculture sectors (that is, industry and services) in gross domestic product (GDP) and employment, as well as increased productivity and incomes — ideally driven by high-productivity industries. Rapid urbanization typically leads to significant growth in market volumes (Reardon and Timmer 2014; Minten et al. 2020). However, this growth can result in declining diet quality due to reduced availability of fruits and vegetables. Additionally, improving sanitation and food safety becomes a major challenge. Excessively rapid urbanization can lead to the development of urban slums and increased poverty, and it often coincides with underinvestment in agriculture and the rural economy, exacerbating rural poverty. More research is needed, using detailed spatial data to link biophysical and socioeconomic outcomes, to better understand the ongoing urbanization-driven transformation of food systems.

What do we know about the future of rice in relation to food systems?

Global rice production remained more stable than maize and wheat production in recent years, while rice consumption continues to increase, albeit at a slower pace. Rice production and consumption are projected to increase worldwide, with Asia to continue as the world’s leading source of rice through 2050. Southeast Asia’s rice surplus will increase by 2040 by closing the exploitable yield gap by one-half. The global rice sector will experience an increasing economic surplus with faster productivity growth and will contribute to a decline in the number of undernourished children and people at risk of hunger. Demographic changes and rice trade policy reforms will be key drivers of rice demand and prices in different countries.

What do we know about the future of food systems innovation?

Innovations have been and will continue to be critical drivers of food systems and societal change. Predicting “game-changing” technology ahead of time is not possible, and silver bullets do not exist. Novel innovations can alleviate some challenges, but unintended consequences always arise. Foresight research can help to identify undesirable outcomes early on and align investments and incentives with social and environmental objectives.

What do we know about the future of the agrifood system in Indonesia?

Productivity growth has played a dominant role in driving the growth of Indonesia’s agricultural production in recent decades, but it has been accompanied by the increasing role of land expansion. Indonesia is projected to achieve high-income status by 2045 if the country can maintain a 6–7 percent annual economic growth rate. To achieve high income and economic growth, the country needs to boost investment activities by increasing national saving, foreign direct investment (FDI), and investment efficiency. Future foresight research should include environmental impacts such as emissions and land use change and explore long-term changes in dietary patterns and poverty alleviation.

What do we know about the future of wheat?

Wheat has been and will remain a major component of diets globally. It accounts for an average of 18 percent of total energy intake and 19 percent of total protein intake globally. It is the primary staple food for 1.5 billion resource-constrained people in the Global South. Wheat represents 29 percent of the global cereals area and 14 percent of the global cropland area. It is an important crop in most agricultural areas of the world except the humid tropics and is less prominent in sub-Saharan Africa. Compared to rice and maize, it is more drought- and cold-tolerant. Wheat will continue to be an important source of protein in 2050, even under changing diets. In meat-based diets, wheat is often part of animal feed. In plant-based diets, wheat is a source of protein. Climate change offers both challenges and opportunities for wheat. Areas previously unsuitable for wheat production may have a comparative advantage under climate change. Similarly, some traditional wheat-growing areas may become less suitable for wheat production under climate change, especially due to heat stress. While Jägermeyr et al. (2021) indicate it can be beneficial for many existing wheat-growing areas, the impacts, for example, of increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, warmer night temperatures, and other weather anomalies are likely to counteract some of the benefits. Some of the poorer regions of the world are historically considered to be wheat-deficit areas and will increasingly depend on imports. This is a key factor in Africa, where there is less wheat production and wheat consumption is increasing with rising incomes.

What do we know about the future of the environment and biodiversity in relation to food systems?

The environment’s proper functioning is essential for a better life on Earth, including maintaining, enhancing, and restoring biodiversity and ecosystem services. While the environment is driven by external factors and shocks as well as interventions within the global food system, it simultaneously drives the overall health and stability of the planet. This relationship involves complex interactions and tipping points, which foresight research needs to capture in analyzing alternative future pathways for food system transformation. A sustainable and resilient environment requires holistic approaches, strategies, and policies to address environmental stresses and promote conservation, regeneration, and coexistence with nature. These include practices that respect ecological boundaries, reduce resource consumption and conflict, foster biodiversity, and enhance ecosystem recovery and adaptability. Foresight research is essential to help decision-makers understand synergies and trade-offs between long-term public goods benefits and short-term private costs from resource use and management. Addressing food systems challenges — including root causes of environmental degradation and biodiversity loss — requires sustainable land and soil management, conservation efforts, and food production practices, in addition to economic viability and social inclusion. Foresight analysis can help policymakers, communities, and industries make informed decisions and prioritize and deploy effective and holistic strategies at the biodiversity-climate-society nexus.

What do we know about the future of food systems in Latin America and the Caribbean?

Heterogeneity and inequality: Latin America and the Caribbean’s (LAC) agrifood systems are marked by significant disparities across the region and within countries in production, trade, and access to food, with inequality a central challenge. These disparities not only undermine food security but also hinder the region’s ability to develop sustainable and resilient food systems. Sustainability and climate resilience: The future of LAC’s agrifood systems will be shaped by the region’s ability to balance agricultural growth with environmental sustainability and the conservation of the stock of natural resources in the long run. Role of policies: Closing the gap between the rich and poor, between large and small producers, and between urban and rural populations requires targeted action, including investing in rural infrastructure, facilitating access to appropriate technologies, and encouraging regional cooperation. Specialization and governance: The region’s continued specialization in agricultural exports presents both opportunities and challenges. Strengthening food security governance frameworks and promoting inclusive policies will be essential to ensure that the benefits of agricultural growth are shared more equitably and that agrifood systems are resilient in the face of climate change and other global challenges. Foresight research can help address these challenges, focusing on the consequences of structural transformation, the trade-offs between agricultural productivity and sustainable management of LAC, the long-term effects of climate change, and how disruptors and drivers of agrifood systems transformation can affect the different LAC regions and countries.

What do we know about the future of agriculture systems in China?

Addressing the dual challenge of limited resources and a large population, China must prioritize sustainable agricultural practices to ensure food security and environmental sustainability. The shift toward a more nutritionally balanced diet by 2050 will not only improve public health but also significantly alter the demand patterns for various food commodities, increasing the need for strategic adjustments in agricultural production. Technological innovation in agriculture presents a critical solution to overcoming constraints of land and water, highlighting the importance of continued investment in research and development for sustainable growth. Future agricultural transformations will likely involve a move away from traditional small-scale farming toward more efficient and cooperative agricultural models, driven by rural demographic changes and the growth of socialized service organizations.

What do we know about the future of agrobiodiversity in relation to food systems?

Agrobiodiversity — the diversity of living organisms that underpin agricultural systems — provides numerous critical benefits, from on-farm crop diversity and genetic resources that allow farmers to adapt crops to changing environments to the provision of ecosystem services such as pollination, disease and pest resistance, soil health, and water conservation. These benefits in turn support resilient livelihoods, food security, and diversified, nutritious diets. A number of ex ante theoretical and practical approaches have been used to show how greater agricultural biodiversity is connected to higher production and lower risk exposure, and to assess the role that agrobiodiversity plays in supporting agricultural systems resilience. But little has been done to integrate the measurement of agrobiodiversity into foresight modeling, or to apply foresight tools and methods to study long-term effects of agrobiodiversity on socioeconomic or environmental outcomes. The recent development of the Agrobiodiversity Index and advances in integrated modeling systems provide opportunities for improved scenario analysis focused on agrobiodiversity and informed by agroecology and agricultural economics theory.

What do we know about the future of food systems?

Food systems have achieved remarkable progress in recent decades, but moving forward, they will face significant challenges in delivering the many outputs and services we expect and need. This book presents a collection of short chapters on the current state of knowledge about different aspects of the future of food systems, written by a diverse group of scientists from around the world with expertise in a wide range of related disciplines and regions. Each chapter examines a particular aspect of food systems, describes recent trends and challenges that highlight the importance of the topic, summarizes the latest available foresight research on that topic, and identifies key gaps in existing foresight research that merit further attention. In a world of complexity and uncertainty, the goal of this book — and the purpose of foresight analysis, more generally — is not to predict the future with precision, but rather to carefully consider and present what can be known about possible future pathways in order to inform choices today. The collection includes 15 chapters focused on major drivers and impacts of change in food systems, 11 chapters that provide regional and national perspectives on the future of food systems, 7 chapters on the future of major food commodities, and 3 chapters on food systems measurement and modeling tools. The contributors come from across CGIAR and many other partner research institutions around the world. This collection was begun as part of the CGIAR Research Initiative on Foresight during the 2022–2024 period and completed as part of the ongoing area of work on foresight and prioritization under the CGIAR Science Program on Policy Innovations.

What do we know about the future of foresight modeling related to food systems?

“Foresight modeling” is thinking about the future using a simplified representation of reality to inform choices we make today. Quantitative foresight modeling is increasingly used to inform decision-making related to food systems by analytically exploring alternative possible futures in a world that is becoming more complex and uncertain. Foresight modeling is improving in coverage and resolution, but various technical and institutional gaps remain. Artificial intelligence can help gather and synthesize information to improve foresight modeling, but it cannot replace the role of human expertise and foresight in testing assumptions and helping to shape the future. To be most effective, quantitative foresight modeling needs to be better linked with qualitative foresight approaches and complemented by engagement with decision-makers in an ongoing and systematic process.

What do we know about the future of gender equality in relation to food system transformation?

Foresight research has yet to fully explore gender equality as an outcome and a driver of food systems transformation. Foresight analysis can assess which food systems investments and interventions are most effective at reducing gender inequalities and increasing women’s empowerment. Addressing structural inequalities, promoting inclusivity in decision-making, and challenging patriarchal norms can enhance gender equality, social inclusion, and women’s empowerment in food systems transformation. Neglecting gender barriers when designing and disseminating food systems innovations may exacerbate gender inequalities and limit women’s empowerment. Gender equality, women’s empowerment, and social inclusion also drive food systems transformation, leading to improved welfare outcomes for all. Foresight research should examine how closing gender gaps in livelihood opportunities, agricultural productivity, and resilience capacities can impact other food systems outcomes, such as poverty reduction, food security, and nutrition. While data on gender inequalities in food systems and women’s empowerment have increased over the last 10 years, more sex-disaggregated data and impact evaluation studies are needed for rigorous foresight research on gender equality in agrifood systems.

What do we know about the future of agriculture in Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay?

Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay (ABPU) have significant weight in the global agricultural market. In 2020–2022, the bloc accounted for 53.1 percent of Latin America and the Caribbean’s total agricultural exports, and 9.3 percent of the world total. This contribution is key in many products at the global level too, such as soybean products (for which the group accounts for 56 percent of world trade), corn (32 percent), bovine meat (26 percent), poultry meat (20 percent), pork meat (6 percent), and wheat (6 percent) (2020–2022 Comtrade data). These commodities are essential for global food security, particularly in regions with growing populations and increasing food demand, notably Asia and Africa. Ensuring the sustainability of ABPU production is paramount not only for food security but also for environmental concerns. ABPU projections show robust growth in cereal and oilseed production, which is expected to increase by 26 percent (118 million tons) by 2033/34 relative to 2023/24. Total exports of cereals and oilseeds are projected to rise by 74 million tons, reaching 355 million tons, driven largely by corn, soybeans, and wheat. Despite slowing growth in global demand and trade of food products, opportunities exist for ABPU countries to increase their food production and exports. Making the most of these opportunities will require increasing yields to maintain production growth while ensuring sustainability. To this end, technological advancements such as minimal soil disturbance, permanent cover cropping, crop diversification, intensive fattening, biotechnology, biological inputs, and precision agriculture can help increase productivity while minimizing environmental impact. The investments required to increase the use of enhanced technology could benefit greatly from a more stable political and macroeconomic context, as well as clear and consistent policies. For example, multilateral trade negotiations in agriculture should not be undermined. Collaboration among ABPU countries could greatly enhance the strategies needed to achieve these sustainability and food security objectives. The analysis described here is intended to kickstart this collaboration, which has shown significant potential for future work.

What do we know about the future of food assistance?

Food assistance has evolved to address both immediate needs and long-term resilience, reflecting the broader scope of interventions beyond traditional food aid. Localized and cash-based assistance is growing in importance, but externally sourced, in-kind assistance remains crucial in areas where markets and food systems are disrupted and thus unable to ensure timely and stable access to nutritious food. Future food assistance needs will increasingly reflect changing geographies, growing urban food insecurity, and heightened market volatility, requiring adaptive, anticipatory, and multilayered strategies. Significant gaps remain in understanding how to sustainably transition from international food assistance to locally driven, resilient food systems that address long-term nutritional adequacy and adapt to compounding crises. Foresight research can help highlight the intersection of climate change, conflict, and economic volatility as key drivers of future food assistance needs, and the nature of innovations to boost efficiency and impact. Expanded use of digital tools and integration of food assistance into social protection systems offer promising pathways toward enhanced efficiency and impact. Further research is needed to ensure that innovations reach the most vulnerable in low-resource settings and that integrated systems are sustainable.

What do we know about the future of food demand, production, and food security based on IMPACT model projections?

Global food demand is projected to increase as incomes rise, and diets will continue shifting toward more nutrient-dense foods, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). IMPACT model projections indicate that global production for all agricultural commodities will increase by over 40 percent between 2020 and 2050, driven by innovation and productivity growth, but resource constraints and climate change pose challenges. As with demand, production is projected to grow fastest in LMICs. In the coming decades, food demand is projected to outpace production in most LMIC regions. As a result, most of these regions, with the exception of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), are expected to increase their reliance on imports. Increases in production and trade are expected to enhance food availability, but most LMIC regions are not on track to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 2.1 on ending hunger by 2030. Strengthening model integration and incorporating socioeconomic disaggregation will enhance IMPACT’s ability to provide more comprehensive insights for decision-making to address these challenges.

What do we know about the future of food systems in relation to climate change?

Climate change poses major challenges to agriculture and food systems, but the latest foresight modeling suggests impacts may be more nuanced than previously thought. For example, economic feedback mechanisms affect global average impacts of climate change on yields and important differences arise between the various greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios and climate models. More importantly, global averages mask wide diversity in impacts across geographies, commodities, and people’s ability to adapt. In addition to long-term impacts of changes in global averages, increasing climate variability is likely to lead to a higher frequency of production shocks from adverse climate events. Climate change is expected to lower GDP and therefore increase the number of food-insecure households and increase poverty. It may also slow growth of agricultural productivity, adversely impacting rural households. Agriculture and food systems (including diets, energy use, and land use change) play a key role in global emissions and strategies to reach net zero, but these strategies are at cross purposes with meeting food needs under climate change and rising demand for food globally. Foresight modeling can help decision-makers evaluate these trade-offs and ameliorate particularly adverse impacts.

What do we know about the future of water in food systems?

Demand is growing while supply is uncertain: Globally, the demand for water in agriculture and food systems is growing, alongside competing needs in other sectors. Freshwater consumption is projected to increase by 17 percent between 2020 and 2050, most of it for irrigation, and almost all of it in low- and middle-income countries. At the same time, water availability is becoming increasingly uncertain due to climate extremes, long-term climate change, pollution, and land use changes such as deforestation and wetland degradation. The rising variability and scarcity contribute to competition among different water users. The water supply-demand gap must be addressed: As the gap between water supply and demand increases, both tested and new technologies, policies, and institutions are needed to improve water productivity and efficiency. At the same time, more research is needed to identify solutions that mitigate the negative impacts of water shortages, pollution, and poor water management on food systems as well as to curb the adverse impacts arising from inefficient and wasteful food systems on water resources and the environment. Agriculture and food systems drive many of the pressures on freshwater ecosystems. According to the IUCN Red List, 25 percent of freshwater species are threatened with extinction (IUCN 2024). This loss of biodiversity threatens not only the species themselves but also the vital services they and their ecosystems provide to humanity. With water a connector across sectors, new approaches to management are critical: With rising water scarcity, decisions in areas such as climate, nutrition, energy, and trade policy will increasingly shape the future of water in food systems. To improve water management in food systems, a more integrated, forward-looking approach is needed that considers the broader implications of policies and investments across multiple sectors. In addition, strengthening governance and institutions and empowering farmers, as key stewards of water resources, are essential for sustainable outcomes.

What do we know about the impacts of the next El Niño on agrifood systems?

As of June 2023, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared that El Niño conditions were present and consensus existed among climate prediction centers that El Niño would likely persist from November 2023 to February 2024. El Niño is typically associated with seasonal climate anomalies and extreme weather events throughout the developing world, especially across sub-Saharan Africa, but the economic impacts caused by these events are difficult to disentangle from those of other climate shocks, natural disasters, and economic cycles. Additionally, the strength and consistency of El Niño’s agroclimatic impacts vary by region. El Niño’s unique slow onset, periodic pattern, and lead times of prediction (from a few months to a year) make it possible to design anticipatory policies and prepare emergency responses in advance. Policymakers should closely monitor the evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases and the potential impacts of El Niño and be prepared to coordinate policy responses quickly as the situation unfolds. As global warming continues and climate extremes occur more frequently, actions to foster climate-resilient agrifood systems should be broadly prioritized.

What do we know about the future of food systems in India?

Rapid growth in the livestock and fisheries subsectors, driven by increasing demand, has advanced the frontiers of agricultural growth in India. Irrigation plays the dual role of enhancing both productivity and resilience in agriculture, but increasing reliance on groundwater for irrigation and the consequent decline in groundwater levels impede the sustainable transformation of India’s agrifood production systems. Although climate change is a significant challenge to the sustainability of agriculture, implementation of climate-smart interventions can significantly improve agricultural productivity and resilience. Changing dietary patterns reinforce the need to reshape agricultural policies to promote diversification of agriculture in favor of nutrient-dense foods, including animal-source foods and fruits and vegetables. Diversification may contribute to the enhanced sustainability of natural resources, mitigate risk, and augment farm income, thereby addressing nutrition insecurity and reducing farm poverty. Enhancing self-sufficiency in specific commodities, such as edible oils and pulses, requires technological advancements and safeguards against low-cost imports.

What do we know about the future of aquatic foods in global agrifood systems?

Demand for aquatic foods has increased rapidly due to population growth, rising incomes, and enhanced appreciation for the health benefits of fish. The rapid growth of aquaculture in the past two decades has been the key contributor to meeting the increasing demand for aquatic foods. Aquatic foods are nutrient-rich, generate low emissions and impacts on land and water, and contribute to the human health, well-being, and livelihoods of rural communities. The latest fish foresight studies provide multifaceted insights into future scenarios of technological progress, climate change, population growth, diet transformation, urbanization, investments, and policy shifts in the fish sector and the potential for fish to provide nutrition-sensitive interventions to combat food insecurity and malnutrition at the global, regional, and national level. Further foresight studies are needed to inform policymaking and develop a deeper understanding of the role aquatic foods can play in addressing the nutritional, social, and environmental food systems challenges while navigating the trade-offs of pursuing these different goals.

What do we know about the future of crop pests and diseases in relation to food systems?

Crop pests and diseases (P&D) can cause substantial yield losses and pose a threat to global food security. Losses at a regional level can even exceed 40 percent for crops like maize and rice. Most studies show that a warmer climate creates a conducive, albeit spatially variable, environment for P&D spread. However, existing foresight research is largely biophysical in nature and focuses on individual pathosystems, examined mostly at the national level. As such, projections of the magnitude of economic impacts of changing patterns of P&D are missing. Global assessment of model-based historical and future P&D impacts on food systems remains constrained by the small number of available models that can estimate yield losses under contrasting climate and agroecological conditions. Efforts are needed to improve data accessibility, model versatility, and simulation platforms and to establish international observation and modeling networks. Artificial intelligence (AI) and related methods can assist in the development of robust and adaptable models to capture the impacts of P&D on food systems.

What do we know about the future of food systems in West and Central Africa?

Food systems in West and Central Africa (WCA) are challenged by slow growth in productivity and incomes and by climate change. Urbanization and related trends are creating new opportunities for the region’s agricultural value chains to meet nutrition and employment needs, including those of women and young people. Climate change poses a significant threat to future agricultural production in the region, and dependence on food imports is mostly projected to increase. Foresight studies that account for the future can help guide the transformation of food, land, and water systems in WCA in response to climate change. However, new analyses are needed to address the multidimensional nature of the region’s challenges.

What do we know about the future of pulses in global and regional agrifood systems?

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) account for about 55 percent of global pulse production. Nearly one-half (48 percent) of global production occurs in 16 low- and lower-middle income countries in the drylands of South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The gap between pulse demand and supply is increasing in South Asia. Most recent foresight studies on pulses are focused on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. Future foresight studies on specific pulse crops should target regions where these pulses are important in human diets. Pulse trade should be promoted between countries that encompass the drylands of South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

What do we know about the future of maize value chains in a changing climate and agrifood system?

Population growth, changing diets, and a rapidly growing feed sector are contributing to a sharp increase in global maize demand, which is expected to double by 2050 relative to 2010. Average global maize yield is projected to decrease by 11 percent under a global warming scenario of 2°C (2060–2084) relative to the 1986–2005 period (in the absence of technological change, adaptation, or market adjustments). The feed demand for maize is expected to grow faster in the coming few decades, largely driven by rapid economic growth and diet shifts in highly populated regions in Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America. Meeting the growing demand for maize will require dramatic increases in production, marketing, use, and resilience of maize-based farming systems. While the supply of maize over the coming decades will be constrained by climate change and limited availability of land and water, technological and policy innovations will bring new opportunities. The combined challenges of increasing food demand, persistent poverty and malnutrition, natural resource depletion, and climate change will require the world to double the productivity and boost the sustainability and resilience of maize-based farming systems within planetary boundaries.

What do we know about the future of food systems in East and Southern Africa?

Food demand in East and southern Africa (ESA) is expected to be three to nine times higher by 2050 (relative to 2010), depending on the emerging economic and demographic trends. To meet demand, agrifood systems (AFS) in the region must expand and diversify. Consumption demand for meats and fruits and vegetables will more than triple by 2050, creating economic opportunities but also inclusivity challenges. Transformations in AFS must increase the sector’s resilience to supply-side shocks that threaten food security and nutrition. Favorable policies and investments that are country-specific, inclusive, and sustainable will be powerful tools to shape and influence AFS’s transition in the region.

What do we know about the future of roots, tubers, and bananas in relation to food systems?

Root, tuber, and banana (RT&B) crops are vital for food and nutrition security, providing quick calories, buffering against food crises, and offering opportunities for gender empowerment, particularly in seed systems. Their resilience to adverse weather and their sustainable integration into diverse farming systems enhance productivity while minimizing environmental impact. Production and consumption of fresh and processed RT&B crops are projected to increase by 17 percent and 9 percent, respectively, by 2050 in developing countries. Total RT&B production could reach almost 1.4 billion tons, with sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) emerging as the world’s leading supplier of RT&B crops. RT&Bs are mostly nontraded crops, although opportunities exist in some areas, such as intraregional exports of bananas from some SSA countries and cross-border trade of fresh potatoes between countries in Africa and Asia. Improving foresight research on biotic and abiotic stresses, trade, labor, and the efficiency of processing capacity and reducing postharvest losses in RT&B crops could contribute to stabilizing their supply in the developing world, lowering import reliance, and creating local economic opportunities.

What do we know about the future of measuring food systems?

Many food systems-related databases, tools, and dashboards are available, but to ensure these tools are helpful for decision-makers, they must be harmonized and their sophistication increased to capture trade-offs and synergies. The Food Systems Countdown Initiative holds great potential to address this need, but its success will depend on several factors, such as filling national and subnational data gaps, ensuring countries formalize their commitments, translating global ambitions into national contexts, and integrating sectoral policies and programs. A new generation of food systems indicators must capture multifaceted interactions, trade-offs, and synergies by integrating observations, models, and complex system analyses with clear metadata for appropriate use.

What are food systems and what can we know about their future?

Food systems are made up of the people, resources, and activities involved in the production, processing, distribution, and consumption of food. We cannot know the future of food systems with certainty, but we can make informed projections about alternative possible futures and ways to achieve (or avoid) them. This book provides a mosaic of perspectives from a diverse group of experts on the state of knowledge about different aspects of the future of food systems and how they are interlinked. Pressure on land and water resources is projected to increase, extreme events will become more frequent, and healthy diets will remain out of reach for many, but innovation and improved policies and investments can help address these challenges. Synergies and trade-offs between these different challenges and goals mean that they need to be understood and addressed as integrated parts of dynamic food systems.

What do we know about the future of energy and food systems?

The global energy transition currently in process involves increases in variable renewable energy generation and ongoing electrification of transport and industrial processes, leading to the possibility of absolute declines in the use of coal and petroleum before 2030. This transition creates both opportunities and risks for agrifood systems. Trade will be an important impact channel for net exporters and net importers of fossil fuels, with impacts spilling into the agrifood sector. Improvements in energy technology, particularly solar generation, have broad applications with potentially large implications for agrifood systems.

Why desk rejections happen and how young researchers can avoid them: Practical lessons from experience

Publishing our work is a critical part of an ECR’s journey. Papers are not always sent out for revision, and it can be discouraging for ECRs to face desk rejections. Here, Dr. Taddese Zerfu shares his insights on how to minimize the chances of facing a desk rejection.

Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – June 2025

Rice prices declined nationally, falling by almost 20 percent year-on-year, with sharp drops in Kayah and Kayin, but significant increases in Shan (East). Rice prices are lowest in secure, major rice-producing areas and highest in most conflict- and earthquake-affected regions. Export crop prices diverged, with green gram and maize increasing due to strong international demand, while black gram and pigeon pea declined year-on-year due to reduced demand in India. Animal-sourced food prices surged, led by beef (up 47 percent) and pork (up 64 percent), due to rising production and fuel costs, while fish prices rose amid strong export demand and a seasonal fishing ban. Multiple risks lie ahead, including the aftermath of the March earthquake, falling international rice prices, ongoing conflict, and uncertain monsoon season production, all of which may undermine farm income and food security.

Vegetable, fruit, and staple crop production and input use: Baseline findings from the FRESH end-to-end evaluation

In Tanzania, fruit and vegetable (F&V) production is the fastest growing agricultural subsector.1 Production is concentrated among smallholder farmers who face numerous barriers which hamper intensification. These include lack of quality inputs, insufficient financing, limited access to subsidies, limited extension services, and limited and unreliable access to markets. The CGIAR Research Initiative on Fruit and Vegetables for Sustainable Healthy Diets (FRESH), now under the CGIAR Science Program on Better Diets and Nutrition (BDN) Area of Work 3, is testing the effectiveness of its end-to-end approach in Northern Tanzania.2 This approach, described in more detail in Research Brief 1, combines demand, food environment, and supply interventions to increase desirability, affordability, accessibility, and availability of F&V. The supply interventions are designed to address known barriers faced by F&V farmers. For example, the provision of climate-resilient vegetable cultivars tackles the lack of quality inputs, whereas training on safe and sustainable vegetable production, including integrated pest management, tackles limited extension services. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and partners are conducting a longitudinal evaluation to assess the impact of the FRESH end-to-end approach in Tanzania on household vegetable production and F&V intake among women of reproductive age. The evaluation is being conducted among 2,611 households living in 33 villages in five districts in the Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions. In this research brief, we describe baseline findings on the production of vegetables, fruit, and staple crops and the inputs used in production among different types of farming households in the study area.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: June 2025

This report analyzes key market trends in Sudan from February to June 2025, focusing on the prices, availability, and quality of essential commodities—cereals, vegetables, animal products, agricultural inputs, fuel, and exchange rates. Consistent with previous editions, it reveals significant spatial and temporal disparities across Sudan’s 18 states. Cereals showed mixed trends. Wheat prices stabilized in June after a mid-May spike, while sorghum and millet fluctuated modestly. Wheat flour prices continued rising. Perceived availability and quality, particularly of wheat and wheat flour, deteriorated in June, with highest prices in conflict-affected and remote areas. Vegetables—particularly tomatoes and potatoes—experienced sharp price hikes in June, largely due to seasonal pressures and logistical disruptions. Onion prices were more stable but showed regional variation. Animal products faced upward price pressure and volatility. Prices of lamb, beef, and eggs rose steadily; chicken and fish were erratic, and milk prices fluctuated. Availability declined, especially for beef and eggs. Perceived quality improved for meat but dropped for chicken and fish. Other staples, including sugar, cooking oil, fava beans, and oilseeds, had relatively stable trends overall, but prices varied widely by state. Sugar and fava beans rose sharply, particularly in South Kordofan and Kas sala. Agricultural inputs showed moderate price fluctuations. Improved seed varieties remained costlier than local ones, with peaks for wheat and potato seeds. Fuel prices in parallel markets spiked in April–May before easing in June. South Kordofan and Central Darfur recorded the highest prices. Exchange rates continued to diverge between official and parallel markets, with wide regional dis parities—Khartoum, Gedaref, and North Kordofan reported the highest parallel rates.

Sudan’s war is an economic disaster: Here’s how bad it could get

Is a negative US agricultural trade balance a cause for concern?

The rising agricultural trade deficit is a relatively recent phenomenon, but it should not be a cause for alarm. Most exported goods face little competition from imports that help consumers meet their year-round demands for fresh fruits, vegetables, and other food products. Lower agricultural export values in recent years reflect the importance of bulk commodities like soybeans, corn, and wheat. Those commodities’ prices have significantly declined since reaching recent highs in 2022. Imported agricultural goods tend to be consumer-oriented products like fresh fruits and vegetables, which have processing and distribution costs that have increased with global inflation. In contrast to prices for bulk commodities, prices for consumer-oriented products have increased significantly since 2022. The Trump administration’s new tariffs may reduce imports and will certainly impose costs on US consumers, but their impact on the agricultural trade deficit is less clear as US agricultural exports could be adversely affected as well, particularly if they face counter-retaliatory tariffs.

Genetic control of seed iron and zinc concentration in Rwandan common bean population revealed by the Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS)

Common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) is one of the most abundantly consumed legume crops as foods worldwide. In many African countries, this crop is an important staple food because of its rich nutrients. The Great Lakes region of Central Africa, which includes Rwanda, the nation with the highest per capita consumption of common beans worldwide, is known to be a center of common bean diversity in Africa. Increasing the amount of iron and zinc in common bean for biofortification has been a key breeding goal in Rwanda and other countries. In this study, using 192 accessions, including local landraces from Rwanda, breeding materials, released varieties, and others, we performed genome wide association studies (GWAS) to determine the loci governing those traits in addition to other agronomic traits. We identified a locus that was strongly associated with seed zinc concentration and candidate genes. The information might be a great help for marker-assisted breeding of this trait in common bean.

Country profile – Kenya: Gender, climate change, and nutrition linkages

Agriculture is vital to Kenya’s economy, accounting for 20% of the country’s GDP in 2020. Yet the growth of the sector has slowed in recent years due to unfavorable weather conditions, leading to a reduction in crop and livestock performance (Central Bank of Kenya, 2023). While employment in agriculture has been steadily declining (to 32% in 2023), the sector still employs a large share of the rural population and is the main source of informal employment, rural income, and livelihoods (D’Alessandro et al., 2015; ILO 2025). A majority of Kenyan farmers operate on a small scale and are solely dependent on rainfall (D’Alessandro et al., 2015). However, since the 1970s, the country has experienced significant changes in rainfall pat terns–average rainfall during the long season has decreased while rainfall during other times of the year has increased and the country has experienced more frequent climate extreme events (Kogo et al. 2021). Increased climate variability has negative effects on agriculture and may exacerbate inequalities within the sector. Due to gender inequalities and gender-differentiated roles in agrifood systems, men and women do not experience climate change and variability in the same ways (Balikoowa et al., 2019; Lecoutere et al. 2023). According to the World Economic Forum, women are more vulnerable than men to climate change due to lower education and exclusion from the political and domestic decision-making processes that affect their lives (Gunawardena, 2020).

Case studies on efforts to digitalize payments in agri-food value chains

Agriculture remains the backbone of rural economies across much of both Sub-Saharan Africa and South and Southeast Asia, employing 54 and 43 percent of the workforce, respectively, and providing livelihoods for most of the rural poor (GSMA, 2020; Nair and Varghese, 2020). Yet, financial transactions in agri-food value chains continue to rely overwhelmingly on cash. The 2021 Global Findex survey finds that most adults in low- and middle-income countries who were paid for agricultural products received their payment in cash. On average, one in four recipients, and fewer than one in six in Sub-Saharan Africa, received agricultural payments into an account (Nair and Varghese, 2020; Demirgüç-Kunt et al., 2022). This reliance on cash introduces a range of inefficiencies and risks, including high transaction costs, security vulnerabilities, lack of transparency, and exclusion from formal financial services (BTCA, 2023a). Digitalizing agricultural payments offers a promising solution to these challenges. Digital financial ser vices (DFS) for the agriculture sector, including mobile money, e-wallets, digital banking, digital credit, savings products, insurance, and e-commerce solutions tailored to agricultural value chains, can facilitate safer, faster, and more transparent transactions while simultaneously connecting farmers and intermediary actors to broader financial ecosystems (GSMA, 2020). By digitalizing payments, farmers can build verifiable financial histories that enable access to formal credit and insurance markets, manage income more effectively, and reduce the risks associated with cash handling. For agribusinesses, digital payments offer substantial operational efficiencies: they lower cash handling costs, improve procurement transparency, support traceability initiatives crucial for compliance with international sustainability standards, and enhance supplier loyalty through faster and more reliable payment processes (Beaman et al., 2014; Nair and Varghese, 2020; BTCA, 2023a).

Credit access, demand, and repayment among smallholder farmers in Nigeria: A follow-up analysis

Access to credit can be important for improving the performance of smallholders, as it enables farmers to purchase inputs while sustaining their livelihoods. In rural Nigeria, however, access to credit—particularly from formal financial institutions—is limited. As a result, farmers often have little to no choice but to depend on alternative credit sources, including informal lending. Small holder agricultural households often turn to friends and family, or local money lenders and other informal and semi-formal sources to meet their credit needs (EFInA, 2020).

Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Nigeria

Nigeria’s agri-food sector is one of the largest and most complex in sub-Saharan Africa, encompassing diverse crops, regions, actors, and markets. With agriculture contributing approximately 24% to the national GDP and employing over 70% of the rural workforce (CBN, nd), the sector plays a central role in livelihoods, food security, and inclusive growth. Within this sector, agri-food value chains constitute the connective tissue that links smallholder farmers, processors, traders, input suppliers, and consumers, both within the domestic economy and across international markets. Nigeria’s agricultural output is predominantly driven by staple food crops such as maize, rice, and cassava, while export-oriented value chains like cocoa provide significant foreign exchange and economic diversification potential. These chains vary widely in terms of modernization, capital intensity, and integration into digital financial services. Staple crop chains are typically domestic-facing and labor-intensive, offering high employment shares and deep linkages with poverty alleviation. Export-oriented chains, although narrower in farmer reach, tend to offer higher margins, foreign earnings, and exposure to quality standards and global market dynamics.

Women’s economic empowerment and leadership: Examining an intervention for smallholder farmers delivered via farmer producer organizations in Guatemala using qualitative methods

Women work across multiple nodes in agricultural value chains, though their participation in value chains varies within and across contexts and their contributions are often underrecognized (Malapit et al., 2020; Quisumbing et al., 2021). Addressing issues such as weak economic growth, climate change, and hunger will require strengthening agricultural value chains, though doing so without a gender-sensitive lens may exacerbate existing gender inequalities within them (Rubin & Manfre, 2014). Development practitioners seeking to strengthen agricultural value chains are increasingly interested in programs that use group-based approaches, as they may reach many people efficiently using such a strategy. However, there is not much evidence on how to increase women’s economic opportunities in agricultural value chains and bolster women’s leadership within the context of group-based interventions. TechnoServe, with funding support from the Walmart Foundation, began implementing the Smallholder Market Access (SMA) program in Guatemala and Nicaragua in 2019. The goal of this program was to work with farmer producer organizations (FPOs) and affiliated smallholder farmers in fresh produce agricultural value chains (AVCs) to increase the productivity, profits, and the market share of FPOs among smallholder farmers. The program also sought to strengthen women’s inclusion in AVCs, leadership, and empowerment by offering both gender-responsive and gender-transformative program components, particularly though agronomy trainings and gender equality trainings for women and men, as well as women’s leadership trainings for women only. This qualitative study focuses on SMA in Guatemala. We investigated gender dynamics in FPOs, women’s empowerment, women’s leadership, and how SMA may influence these themes. Ultimately, the goal of this study was to gain insights on the strengths of SMA programming with regard to women smallholder farmers’ economic and leadership opportunities, as well as to identify opportunities to strengthen the program. We collected data from in-depth interviews with eight SMA staff, nine FPO lead ers, and 18 FPO members. We also conducted six single-sex focus group discussions with FPO members, which included 15 women and 13 men total. The FPOs sampled did not receive the full SMA treatment prior to data collection; as such, the results presented in this study reflect perceptions of different components of SMA that had been only partially implemented prior to data collection.

IFPRI Malawi Monthly Maize Market Report, June 2025

Highlights Retail prices of maize increased by 8 percent in June. Prices rose in all regions of Malawi despite continued imports. Maize retailed above the government-mandated price in 13 out of 26 monitored markets.

Wages of the poor and food price inflation: Insights from the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey in Q4 2024

This research note examines changes in food prices and their effects on the cost of both common and healthy diets, as well as on the purchasing power of casual wages. Data on food prices and casual wage levels were collected through interviews with food vendors in rural and urban areas across Myanmar, conducted between December 2021 and December 2024 as part of the ongoing Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS).