Publications and Datasets

Constraints and promising interventions to strengthen fish seed systems in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Ghana

CONTEXT Aquaculture has surpassed capture fisheries in terms of production and is among the fastest growing food sectors. It has great potential to contribute to food security and nutrition, poverty reduction, jobs, and environmental sustainability. Fish seed is increasingly considered to be a major driver and disabler of aquaculture development. However, little is known about how fish seed systems operate, their challenges and opportunities, or entry points for strengthening them. OBJECTIVE This study analyzes primary data on the challenges and opportunities faced by various actors along the fish seed chain, documents the lessons from a fish seed project (Ghana Tilapia Seed Project, 2019–2022), and provides an analysis of entry points for strengthening fish seed systems. METHODS Using an analytical framework that tracks germplasm base, seed production and quality, seed availability and distribution, and the information flow along the fish seed value chain, we analyze the case of Ghana, the top producer of farmed tilapia in sub-Saharan Africa. The study uses a mixed-methods approach, including value chain analysis, action-oriented research methods, and statistical analysis of survey data. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS Findings indicate that the initial rapid growth in tilapia production in Ghana was partly due to an improved local strain released in 2004; however, the recent stagnation is largely caused by seed-related issues (poor maintenance and improvement of germplasm base, seed quality and availability, lack of information and coordination, and lack of enforcement of regulations). This study highlights the successes and lessons learned from the Ghana Tilapia Seed Project on broodstock distribution, training on fingerling production, establishment of nurseries, and training of fish farmers. The lessons highlight the need for policy changes and capacity building related to strain development and broodstock management. SIGNIFICANCE These findings fill the large gap in evidence on the functioning of fish seed systems and how to strengthen them. They can directly inform ongoing country-level efforts and programs aiming to develop aquaculture.

COVID-19 and rural livelihoods: Lessons from a longer-term assessment and the path to recovery

The COVID-19 pandemic had profound effects on livelihoods across rural populations worldwide. Building on earlier work that examined the initial effects of the pandemic on food security and nutrition among smallholder agricultural households in the Western Highlands of Guatemala, this study offers a longer-term assessment of the impacts and the path to recovery. We rely on a unique longitudinal survey of 1,262 households conducted over four rounds between 2019 and 2022, with the first round in person and the subsequent ones by phone. The results show substantial recoveries in food security and dietary diversity in the region by mid-2022 compared to 2020, but at levels still worse than pre-pandemic ones for some indicators. There is also a sustained increase in the intention to emigrate. The households that were initially more affected in terms of food security and nutrition but recovered faster include those located in one of the three studied departments and families living above the poverty line, while smallholders affected by hurricanes, non-coffee producers, and indigenous populations took longer to recover. We additionally provide quantitative estimates for a subsample of households interviewed in person during a fifth survey round at the end of 2022, showing an average decline of about 16 percent in total household income three years after the start of the pandemic, mainly driven by a decrease in agricultural income, combined with a 26-percent increase in expenditures and an important surge in indebtedness. Overall, the study offers valuable lessons regarding the recovery of vulnerable households following a major global crisis and in a context of additional shocks.

Estimating multidimensional development resilience

Existing measures of resilience are typically based on a single well-being indicator. This is problematic in contexts where households face deprivations across multiple dimensions. We develop a multidimensional resilience measure, integrating probabilistic moment-based resilience measurement approaches with multidimensional poverty measurement methods. Applying these to household panel data from Ethiopia, we show that univariate and multidimensional resilience measures based on expenditure-based poverty, dietary diversity, and livestock asset holdings can yield varied inferences on the ranking of households as well as potential impact of development interventions. Univariate resilience measures constructed using consumption expenditure, dietary diversity and livestock asset holdings show distinct temporal and spatial distributional patterns. But while univariate measures are weakly correlated with one another and with different well-being metrics, multivariate measures exhibit much stronger rank correlations. When we contrast univariate measures of resilience to multidimensional measures of resilience, we find that the latter vary less over the study period; multidimensional resilience measures seem to capture more “persistent or structural” vulnerability and associated capacity of households. We also demonstrate the differences in these univariate and multivariate measures, including the potential of the composite multidimensional resilience measures for supporting targeting processes.

Agricultural mechanization

Higher altitude stunts children’s physical growth: A systematic review and meta-analysis

How can anticipatory action programming support women? Application of the reach-benefit-empower-transform framework in Nepal and Nigeria

Exposure and disease burden of fumonisins and aflatoxins from sorghum consumption in Ethiopia

Studies on mycotoxin exposure from sorghum consumption and related public health risk estimation are rarely available in Ethiopia. The aim of this research was to assess fumonisin and aflatoxin exposure of adults through sorghum consumption in the Amhara National Regional State (ANRS) and at national level in Ethiopia and to estimate related health risks. Data on fumonisin and aflatoxin concentrations in sorghum samples were collected from a survey and literature. Estimated fumonisin exposure in the ANRS and at national level were below the FAO/WHO limit of 2000 ng/kg bw day to be considered a health concern. The estimated aflatoxin exposure levels in the ANRS and at national level fall below the Margin of Exposure value of 10000, indicating potential health concern. The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma due to aflatoxin exposure in the ANRS ranges from 0.0003 to 0.017 while at national level, it ranges from 0.181 to 8.47 (per100.000 persons/year). The related disability-adjusted life years estimates for the ANRS and at national level ranged from 0.0003 to 0.019 and 0.204 to 11.230, respectively. Aflatoxin exposures were driven more by sorghum intake than aflatoxin contamination. Dietary intervention could further reduce the health risk estimates.

Vouchers to increase fruit affordability in Nigeria and Vietnam

Although fruits are an important part of healthy diets, they are relatively expensive, so most individuals consume less than recommended. We use a randomized control trial to study a voucher program designed to improve the affordability of fruits in peri-urban and urban settings in Vietnam and Nigeria, and analyze whether vouchers can increase fruit consumption. The trial took place in 2021 among 601 households in Vietnam and 611 households in Nigeria. Vouchers were distributed between March and July in Vietnam and between June and November in Nigeria. In both contexts, a large majority of consumers who received vouchers used them. Following project conclusion, we find suggestive evidence of sustained increased fruit consumption only in Vietnam. In Nigeria, vouchers increased consumption of certain fruit categories during program implementation, but we find no evidence of sustained impacts. Fruit consumption is higher across the board in Vietnam, and the sample is wealthier overall, suggesting fruit affordability may not be a binding constraint for consumption. In Nigeria, the increase in consumption during the program along with a post-project decline suggest a lack of household resources to sustain consumption once the project concluded. The results suggest vouchers can improve consumption of healthy foods like fruits, but other actions are needed to make them more affordable in the longer term.

Gendered networks and demand for an agricultural technology in India

Studies on social learning and technology adoption often only consider the networks of a single individual in a household as a source of information influencing agricultural production decisions. We test the validity of this assumption by examining the role of men’s and women’s social networks in the adoption of a novel water-saving technology, laser land leveling (LLL), in India. Using network data from men and women in the same household, we test the influence of being connected to an adopter on demand for LLL. We identify the causal gender-specific network effects using a field experiment that combines an auction with a lottery for the technology, making the presence of adopters in networks exogenous. The data reveal that men’s and women’s networks vary in size and show little overlap. We find that whereas household demand for LLL increases when men are linked to an LLL-adopting household, it decreases when the network linkages run through women. These gender-differentiated effects are concentrated in households where the woman’s opinion about the technology is valued by the man and in non-poor households. The results highlight that social learning may interact with the socio-demographic characteristics of households in myriad ways to influence household technology adoption decisions, and that agricultural-based information interventions ought to also consider how information gets used in the household. JEL classification: D13; Q12; Q16

Imperfect competition and asymmetric welfare effects of global price and productivity shocks: a CGE model analysis for Senegal

This article investigates the asymmetric effects of global price and productivity shocks on welfare in the context of imperfect competition. The primary objective is to understand how market concentration affects the transmission of economic shocks and their impacts on various households. A CGE model, calibrated on a 2014 social accounting matrix for Senegal, is used. The model features a trading sector operating under a Cournot oligopoly with increasing returns to scale. Two scenarios are simulated: a 15% increase in global import prices and a 10% increase in agricultural productivity, each considering different levels of market concentration. The findings reveal that higher global import prices reduce household well-being, a situation exacerbated by low market competition. In contrast, agricultural productivity gains enhance well-being, with these benefits amplified by greater competition. However, the wealthiest households in Dakar benefit from low competition due to their positions in oligopolistic companies. To maximize household well-being, economic policies should focus on strengthening market competition, particularly in the trading sector. Actions such as reducing entry barriers for new businesses and regulating anti-competitive practices can help mitigate the adverse effects of global price increases and amplify the benefits of agricultural productivity gains.

Understanding spatial heterogeneity of hidden hunger in Senegal

Using household consumption data collected in 2017/18, this paper analyzes patterns of urban and rural food consumption in Senegal. We adopt two methodological approaches: an in-depth (spatial) profiling of current diets and corresponding nutrient intakes and an application of the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS). Our findings indicate that Senegal is a typical case of micronutrient deficiency, especially regarding calcium, iron, and vitamin B12. Due to their higher income status and better food access, urban dwellers on average have a more diversified diet with higher nutrient intakes compared to their rural counterparts, especially regarding calcium, vitamin B12, and vitamin A. While the country’s food system in general is unable to assure a nutritious diet for all, the most remote rural departments in Senegal, such as Saraya and Podor, display the highest nutrient deficiencies and therefore should be targeted with priority. Apart from geographical targeting and given their higher responsiveness to price and income changes, policies based on food pricing and income transfers should be implemented to ensure a minimal nutrient intake among the most food-insecure households. These policies could be further complemented with behavioral change campaigns to promote an alternative set of nutrient-rich and cost-effective food items.

Step by step to higher yields? Adoption and impacts of a sequenced training approach for climate-smart coffee production in Uganda

Climate change further exacerbates sustainability challenges in coffee cultivation. Addressing these requires effective delivery mechanisms for sustainable farming practices, particularly in smallholder contexts. We assess a novel public-private extension approach in Uganda, called Stepwise, comprising a sequence of climate-smart and good agricultural practices in four incremental steps. Using a mixed-method approach, an index that captures adoption intensity rather than binary uptake, and survey data from 915 Robusta and Arabica coffee farmers, we find adoption levels around 46% and relatively uniform amongst treated, spillover and comparison farmers. Regional variations suggest differing benefits across coffee varieties. Qualitative findings identify barriers to adoption, including financial and labour constraints, suboptimal training delivery, and input and output market imperfections. Despite relatively low uptake, adoption of more than half of the Stepwise practices is associated with substantial gains: inverse probability weighted regression adjustment reveals a 23% increase in yield and a 32% increase in revenue. Our findings add to the adoption literature, which often highlights limited uptake, and have important policy implications. Strengthening producer organizations, delivering targeted training but also innovative solutions for access to inputs and fair pricing, hold considerable potential to increase the adoption of climate-smart practices, particularly among resource-constrained farmers.

Malawi’s agrifood system: Transformation and environmental impacts

This paper is an update of Country Brief 8 in the series of Agrifood System Diagnostics coauthored by De Weerdt et al. (2023). The important addition from the previous country brief is a new section assessing agriculture’s environmental footprint, focusing on water use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by subsector and over time. Unlike the previous version, this brief does not include a forward-looking analysis—using IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model (IFPRI 2023)—of the contribution of productivity growth in agricultural value chains on agrifood transformation, employment, and socioeconomic outcomes. For a recent and extensive value chain ranking analysis that incorporates RIAPA modeling results, readers are referred to Pienaar et al. (2023). Malawi experienced slow growth in the post COVID-19 pandemic period. In addition to the economic impacts of the pandemic itself, the country suffered from high levels of public debt and a sustained balance of payments crisis. Global events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and adverse weather events such as Cyclone Freddy and the El Niño in 2023–2024 further prevented the Malawi economy from returning to pre-pandemic growth levels. Economic growth rates have dropped from an average of 4.1 percent in 2011–2019 to 2.2 percent since 2020 (World Bank 2025), with an average growth rate of 3.8 percent per year during 2009–2022.

Energy and macronutrient intake among women of reproductive age: Baseline findings from the FRESH End-to-End Evaluation

In Tanzania, unhealthy diets are a major contributor to non-communicable diseases such as obesity, hypertension, and diabetes. Tanzanian diets are generally cereal-based and low in fruit and vegetables (F&V) and animal sourced foods. With rising incomes, consumption of energy-dense processed and ultra-processed foods has increased, reaching 694 kg/year per adult in 2019. Among women of reproductive age (WRA), daily energy intake is also increasing. Although nationally representative data are lacking, individual studies indicate an increase over time from 1,347 kcal/day in 2014 to 1,631 kcal/day in 2015/16 and 2,174 kcal/day in 2022. The CGIAR Research Initiative on Fruit and Vegetables for Sustainable Healthy Diets (FRESH), now under the CGIAR Science Program on Better Diets and Nutrition (BDN), uses an end-to-end approach, described in more detail in Research Brief 1, that combines demand, food environment, and supply interventions to increase desirability, affordability, accessibility, and availability of F&V. In Tanzania, an ongoing impact evaluation is testing the effectiveness of this end-to-end approach in improving F&V intake and vegetable production across 33 villages in the Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions. In this research brief, we describe baseline findings on the energy and macronutrient intake among WRA in the study area.

Bridging Nigeria’s fertilizer supply-demand gap for agricultural transformation

Nigeria’s fertilizer sector exhibits a persistent disconnect between national supply and farm-level use. Despite rapid growth in domestic production and increased private-sector participation, fertilizer adoption among smallholder farmers remains among the lowest in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper examines the key drivers of Nigeria’s fertilizer supply–demand imbalance and its implications for agricultural transformation. Using national statistics, market data, and policy reviews, it identifies persistent barriers – including high distribution costs, inconsistent government policies, weak extension systems, limited credit access, and poor product quality – that constrain effective fertilizer use. It also assesses how export-oriented incentives and underdeveloped domestic markets influence local availability and pricing. The findings show that expanding production alone is insufficient to achieve meaningful agricultural change. Coordinated market reforms, stronger regulatory enforcement, improved delivery mechanisms, and targeted support to smallholder farmers are needed to improve affordability, access, and agronomic efficiency. The paper concludes with policy recommendations aimed at better aligning the fertilizer sector with Nigeria’s long-term goals for productivity growth and food system resilience.

Digital agricultural technology in Egypt: Insights from app developers

Digital technologies have rapidly reshaped agricultural systems worldwide, and Egypt is no exception. Over the past decade, the proliferation of smartphones, mobile internet, and low-cost digital tools has opened new channels through which farmers, traders, processors, and aggregators access information and services. Smartphone applications, websites, call centers, and SMS-based platforms now offer advice on crop management, weather and climate alerts, input and output price information, traceability tools, and digital marketplaces. For smallholder farmers—who make up the backbone of Egypt`s agricultural sector—these tools have the potential to reduce information frictions, improve decision-making, and increase productivity and profitability. For larger firms engaged in aggregation, processing, or export, digital platforms can streamline supply chains, enhance coordination, and improve quality assurance.

Gendered work norms in Egypt: Evidence on preferences and social perceptions

We examine the nature and scope of gendered work norms in Egypt using new experimental evidence from a household survey. Societal norms around work, care responsibilities and the types of jobs women and men can hold can have a profound effect on gender differences in employment, earnings and life satisfaction. Indeed, while lack of childcare and secure transportation remain widely cited constraints to women’s employment in low-income settings, descriptive and experimental evidence also suggest that deeply rooted social norms about gender roles play a prominent role in driving the persistence of such barriers and in how households evaluate women’s work. Norms emphasizing men as primary breadwinners and women as primary caregivers shape both economic decisions and perceptions of behavior in ways that may limit women’s labor force participation even when opportunities exist. We implement three survey-based experiments among economically disadvantaged households to elucidate these norms and measure their salience. A wage‐comparison choice experiment shows that households strongly prefer that men—not women—take on additional paid work, even when this preference entails substantial forgone income for the household. When offered identical wages for equal hours of work, only 12.4 percent of respondents select the wife to take it as a first part-time job versus the husband taking it as a second part-time job. Even when her wage is double that of her husband, a clear majority still prefer that the husband works instead. These results indicate a large implicit cost that households place on women working outside the household. Two randomized vignette experiments further demonstrate that identical actions are interpreted differently depending on whether they are performed by men or women. Men who take on a second job to support their financially struggling household are widely viewed as more competent and more moral, whereas perceptions of women making the same choice are far more divided. Perceptions of workplace effort are broadly similar across genders, with small differences appearing only in perceptions of morality. Together, these findings emphasize the strength of gendered work norms in Egypt and reveal nuance in how they shape behavior. The findings also underscore the relevance of gender norms for designing programs affecting household work decisions and testing new approaches to promote women’s economic inclusion.

The impact of genetically modified cowpea on yields, postharvest losses, and profitability in Nigeria: Findings from a cluster randomized controlled trial

We assess the impacts of a genetically modified pod borer-resistant (PBR) cowpea variety in Nigeria through a cluster randomized controlled trial conducted in two major cowpea-cultivating states. Our design allows us to examine the impacts of PBR cowpea with and without a package of complementary inputs (fertilizer and insecticides) and in comparison to farmers who received only a conventional improved cowpea variety. Results indicate that farmers who received and planted PBR cowpea experienced significant increases in yield (21 percent) and net margins (49 percent) compared to those growing the conventional variety, with larger gains observed among those provided with the inputs package. Analysis of heterogeneous effects indicates substantial variation in outcomes based on baseline characteristics such as household size, landholding, pest control practices, and wealth. Estimation of group average treatment effects and classification analysis using a causal machine learning approach identify plot size, pesticide use, and assets as key drivers of impact heterogeneity. Findings highlight the need for targeted dissemination strategies to realize the sizable benefits of PBR cowpea for small-scale, resource-constrained farmers.

Micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises and their role in sustainable healthy diets in Ethiopia

Ethiopia is working to transform its food system through a set of game changers that strive to change Ethiopia’s agricultural production patterns and to help improve consumption of under-consumed foods. The goal is to improve diet quality for Ethiopian consumers and households, which can only take place if consumers are more aware of what types of food to eat and if production of certain types of food can expand. In collaboration with national partners, CGIAR collected and analyzed data collected in Ethiopia on consumers and businesses selling food to consumers within the same food environments. The goal of this exercise was to learn about what dietary gaps exist, the type of businesses selling those foods, and factors constraining MSMEs from selling more healthy foods. There were three aspects to the data collection that are pertinent to this note, all collected in Kolfe Keranyo and Butajira: a consumer survey, which included information about households, adolescents, and their caregivers (typically mothers); a food environment survey, which collected some basic information about all businesses that sold food, including the foods they sold; and a survey covering micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) that work in the food environment. The latter survey included detailed information about MSMEs to understand their role in providing food to consumers. In this brief, we describe highlights from that analysis, with an eye towards ways the analysis can inform actions taken to implement specific game changers that catalyze food systems transformation from a consumer perspective.

Mozambique: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Mozambique’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. In Mozambique, investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors and traders are identified as the most cost-effective means of enhancing social outcomes, such as poverty reduction and addressing undernourishment. They are also highly ranked in accelerating agrifood GDP and employment. Moreover, extension services for livestock and agronomy, rural road infrastructure, and post-harvest losses reduction are also highly ranked. However, many of these cost-effective investments come with relatively high environmental footprints, which highlight potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options over time and marginally so in the presence of extreme production shocks.

The development potential of anchor enterprise models in Malawi

Smallholder-centered agricultural development strategies have had limited success in Malawi over the past several decades. Policy makers are now increasingly looking for alternative ways to accelerate agricultural and rural development. One emerging approach involves larger farms or agri-business firms partnering with smallholder farming households, in what we will refer to as an anchor enterprise model. Support for such partnerships is growing, but there is still little clarity on what they involve, what they aim to achieve and the conditions they need for success. Summarizing findings from a detailed report (Benson, Cockx, and De Weerdt, forthcoming). This policy note seeks to address these questions and provide guidance for future action. We structure our discussion around five questions: what the model is, when it can make sense, for whom it can work, how it can be implemented, and whether it can contribute to inclusive rural development.

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, November 2025

Retail prices of maize decreased in nearly all monitored markets by 6 percent on average in November. Sustained imports at steady exchange rates helped stabilize prices at a time when they would normally rise as peak lean season approaches. Imports dominated maize trade at all border points except Mchinji, which recorded exports to Zambia.

Internal displacement and the measurement of women’s empowerment: Evidence from a test-retest survey experiment

Women’s empowerment includes the ability to participate in existing market activities, access and control the use of productive resources, obtain opportunities for decent work, control the use of time, and voice and participate in decision making within households and communities (United Nations 2018). Increasing women’s economic empowerment is relevant to several sustainable development goals (i.e., to achieve gender equality, promoting full and productive employment and decent work for all, and reducing existing inequalities). Given all of this, accurately measuring women’s empowerment systematically across a variety of settings is imperative. As such, studying innovations in measuring women’s agency, empowerment, or decision-making power is an active area of research (Malapit et al. 2019; Donald et al. 2020; Laszlo et al. 2020; Buvinic et al. 2020; Quisumbing et al. 2023; Jayachandran et al. 2023).

The landscape of youth engagement in labor markets in Africa: Are youth driving structural transformation?

This paper assesses the landscape and evolution of youth engagement in labor markets in Africa, focusing on three important countries—Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria—which together account for 40 percent of Africa’s youth population. We also examine whether Africa’s youth are driving structural transformation. To do so, we combine nationally representative data and surveys spanning more than two decades (from the 1990s to the 2020s). We situate the analysis within the region’s pressing youth unemployment challenge, where annual labor-force entrants surpass job creation. Our findings show that, despite substantial heterogeneities across countries, largely due to sectoral composition of economies, youth remain engaged in agriculture almost as much as adults. While labor continues to gradually shift out of agriculture, it has moved overwhelmingly into services rather than industry, reinforcing the unique pattern of structural transformation in Africa. More importantly, exit rates from agriculture are similar for youth and adults, except in Ethiopia, where youth are leaving agriculture at slightly higher rates than adults. In Ethiopia and Kenya, the entry rate into services is higher among young women, while entry into industry is higher among young men, suggesting distributional and equity implications of Africa’s ongoing structural transformation. These findings offer important insights and challenge simplistic views that youth are leaving agriculture in “droves” as well as the sometimes-embroidered perceptions of their role in that transformation. We discuss the implications of these findings for sustaining inclusive employment opportunities and argue that agriculture should remain central to job creation efforts in Africa.

Whole maize flour could enhance food and nutrition security in Malawi

Maize is the staple cereal in Malawi, with a daily per capita consumption of 383 g (dry matter basis), primarily consumed in the form of nsima, a thick porridge. We combined a milling experiment with focus group discussions (FGDs) to provide insights into mass and nutrient losses during maize grain dehulling and maize flour consumption patterns in rural Malawi. Milling batches (30 kg) of four maize grain varieties were dehulled at three abrasive disk dehullers under controlled conditions. The impact of maize variety and dehuller design on mass and nutrient losses during dehulling was statistically significant (p < 0.05), with a mean mass loss of 28.1 ± 5.7%, and nutrient losses of 9.8 ± 1.9% for protein, 61.7 ± 2.0% for zinc, and 47.7 ± 3.6% for iron. Six FGDs conducted in rural areas of Lilongwe District revealed a preference for refined flour due to convenience and cultural norms, despite the nutritional benefits of whole grain flour, which was recognized for its ability to provide satiety, particularly during periods of maize scarcity. Participants also highlighted switching between flour types based on seasonal maize availability, social stigma associated with whole grain flour, and awareness of nutrient losses during dehulling. Given Malawi’s precarious food insecurity situation, transitioning from dehulled maize flour nsima to whole maize flour or less refined nsima, is imperative. Our study findings can have food and nutritional savings for other southern Africa countries where the dehulling is a common practice.

How social norms influence processes of change related to an economic intervention in Bangladesh

Intimate partner violence (IPV) occurs due to multiple factors at the individual, relational, community and societal levels. Previous research has shown that a cash, food and behaviour change communication programme called the Transfer Modality Research Initiative (TMRI) implemented from 2012 to 2014 in Bangladesh had sustained effects on IPV. We collected qualitative data among former TMRI participants in 2023 that allows exploring how social norms may have played a role in shaping the changes related to IPV along four pathways through which TMRI influenced IPV: 1) economic security, 2) family relationships, 3) women’s empowerment, and 4) social support and community relationships. We conducted nine focus group discussions (FGDs) with 49 women TMRI participants, nine FGDs with 52 husbands of women TMRI participants, 54 in-depth interviews (IDIs) with women TMRI participants, and 10 IDIs with women who did not participate in TMRI. We find: along 1) women’s economic contributions may facilitate weakening of IPV norms, however norms on gender roles and seclusion constrain change; along 2) norms related to family reputation could influence IPV condemnation, however norms on female submission and obedience to in-laws constrain change; along 3) norms on female submission constrain female empowerment but could be weakened if women display knowledge aligning with gender roles; and, along 4) linkages to reduced IPV were less clear, with female seclusion norms constraining change, highlighting the importance of group activities. Our findings draw attention to the potential for economic interventions layered with context-specific norms interventions to achieve longer-term changes in IPV and gender inequalities.

Does small-scale irrigation affect women’s time allocation? Insights from Ethiopia

Small-scale irrigation (SSI) interventions have received increasing attention as a potential pathway for women’s empowerment in sub-Saharan Africa. One key aspect of women’s empowerment that SSI can influence is women’s time burden. Hypothesized benefits of SSI for women are less energy exertion and reduced labor in agriculture. Yet, these hypotheses have not been tested empirically. We explore how household adoption of different SSI technologies affects the time allocation of women in the household, using two rounds of intrahousehold panel survey data from Ethiopia. Two different approaches are used to address potential endogeneity issues related to time-constant and time-varying factors that may be correlated with both SSI and time use: an instrumental variables-correlated random effects approach and a fractional multinomial logit-correlated random effects with control function approach. The results suggest that household use of SSI in general is associated with an increase in women’s leisure time. The results further suggest that household use of motor pumps is associated with an increase in women’s leisure time and reductions in the time they spend on farming and personal care. Given that women often provide the labor for irrigation using manual, labor-intensive methods, such as watering cans, buckets, or hand- or foot-powered treadle pumps, the results suggest that SSI using motorized methods has the potential to free up women’s time in farming and enable more leisure time. These findings have broad implications for women’s empowerment and labor allocation. Future research using new and more comprehensive data could explore the mechanisms for the findings in this study and determine if SSI enables women to improve their ability to allocate their time to activities they prefer.

Integrating carbon sequestration and yield optimization in Indian cropping systems

Agriculture contributes significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but also holds strong potential for mitigation – particularly through soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. This study evaluates the impact of integrated management practices—such as biochar application, optimized irrigation, and fertilizer management on yield improvement and SOC sequestration in semi-arid regions of Maharashtra, India. Using APSIM simulations across five districts and diverse cropping systems, it compares these practices with conventional farming. Results indicate that integrated practices consistently improve yields, SOC levels, and economic viability. For instance, maize yields under integrated practices increased by over 30 %, with substantial SOC gains. A cost-benefit analysis reveals high benefit-cost ratios, making these practices economically viable for smallholder farmers. This study highlights the transformative potential of integrated practices in addressing food security and environmental sustainability, especially in semi-arid regions. Policy recommendations include subsidizing biochar, promoting precision irrigation technologies, and integrating SOC sequestration strategies into national climate action plans. These findings provide actionable insights for scaling sustainable agricultural practices in resource-constrained settings. Previous article in

The characteristics of community seed schemes for grains and legumes: Insights from northern Nigeria

CONTEXT Despite the significant roles that intermediary seed systems play in the supply of quality seed in developing countries, including Africa South of the Sahara, the knowledge gap remains generally substantial regarding the general characteristics and seed quality assurance performance of intermediary seed systems like community seed schemes (CSS), which still predominantly operate outside the formal seed systems. OBJECTIVE We aim to narrow the knowledge gap on seed production practices implemented by CSS and their economic characteristics, the extent of seed quality assurance achieved, and potential challenges CSS is facing. METHODS Using primary survey data of seed producers of key grains (maize, rice, and sorghum) and legumes (cowpea and soybean) from 380 CSS in Kano state in northern Nigeria, we qualitatively assess seed production characteristics, financial structures of their seed production, aspects of quality assurance measures they engage, and potential roles of external support like training on their implementation of these quality assurance measures. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS We discovered that many of the interviewed CSS have emerged endogenously, taking up seed production to address the challenges in access to quality seed in their locality. Their seed production has often grown into viable businesses that have provided potentially significant additions to their incomes. Oftentimes, these CSS implemented some seed quality assurance measures, including making closer visual checks of seed, checking germination rates, and bagging/packing seed, among others. However, fuller seed quality assurance may be significantly skill-intensive, and most CSS still do not implement many of the recommended measures under some of the intermediary quality assurance standards like quality declared seed. Our qualitative assessment suggests that future support for CSS can focus on technical support to raise the ability to engage in broader categories of quality assurance activities in financially viable ways and to improve the awareness and knowledge of different varieties and access to early generation seed. SIGNIFICANCE The quality assurance provided by existing community seed schemes in Nigeria may be relatively limited, particularly in terms of proper maintenance of seed production field and the quality of original varieties that they intend to multiply. Providing external support through training and technical assistance may be an effective way to transform community seed schemes into critical providers of seed quality assurance in intermediary seed systems and fill gaps in the formal seed system.

Buyer-side gender discrimination in bargaining: Evidence from seed sales in Uganda

Haggling over prices is a common feature of economic transactions in many societies. This study examines whether the gender of the seller influences buyers’ negotiation strategies and outcomes in bilateral price bargaining. Using a bargaining experiment in eastern Uganda, we analyze interactions between smallholder maize farmers and either a male or female seed seller. Our findings reveal that buyers negotiating with female sellers are less likely to accept the initial offer price and respond with lower counter-bids compared to those bargaining with male sellers. Negotiations also last, on average, one round longer when the seller is a woman, and final transaction prices are nearly 9 percent lower. These results are particularly relevant for rural economies, where restrictive gender norms limit women’s financial autonomy. Given that small agribusinesses often provide one of the few viable income-generating opportunities for women, gender biases in market interactions can have substantial implications for economic empowerment and household welfare.

The (un)affordability of healthy diets in South Asia and the implications for nutrition-sensitive food policies

India’s agrifood system: Structural features and policy priorities

Gender roles in South Asian food systems

Adolescents in South Asian agrifood systems: Roles and aspirations

Food environments and behavioral drivers of food choice in South Asia

What are people eating in South Asia?

Social safety nets for a nutrition-sensitive food system in South Asia: Lessons from India

Consumption of foods high in fats, salt, and sugar in India: Prevalence, patterns, and policy imperatives

The agrifood system in South Asia: Pathways to sustainable healthy diets

South Asia is home to an estimated 2.08 billion people, making it the most densely populated region on the planet. This places immense pressure on the region’s agrifood systems to ensure that healthy and affordable food is available for all, a goal that can only be met by addressing today’s multiple interconnected challenges. Overcoming bottlenecks in agrifood systems — the networks of actors, activities, infrastructure, and policies that are involved in getting food from farms to mouths — requires data and evidence on the many elements of these complex systems. Moreover, that evidence must serve as a catalytic driver of change, which further requires strong partnerships between donors, researchers, civil society, industry, and policymakers. This report begins with a summary of the latest evidence on diets in the region, and then traces the drivers of current diets, starting from the food environment experienced by consumers, back through the diverse markets and farm production, and finally looks at the role of social protection and agrifood policy. The chapters on diets include close looks at consumption of unhealthy foods, the (un)affordability of healthy diets, and behavioral and environmental drivers of food choice. Production-related chapters consider trade-offs between production and consumption as well as how farming households adapt to climate shocks. Other chapters review evidence on the roles of men, women, and adolescents at different points in agrifood systems. The final chapters address lessons learned from social protection and on structural variations in India’s agricultural value chains. Many of the chapters draw from surveys recently conducted in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal under the CGIAR Research Initiative on Transforming Agrifood Systems (TAFSSA).

From data to decision: How the National Information Platform for Nutrition (NiPN) bridges the research-policy gap in Ethiopia’s nutrition sector

Bridging the gap between research and policy continues to be a major challenge in Ethiopia, particularly in the nutrition sector, where evidence is often fragmented, inconsistently collected, and underutilized. Traditional research-to-policy approaches are frequently misaligned with policymaking needs due to differences in timelines, priorities, and communication practices. While these challenges are not unique to Ethiopia—and indeed, numerous global efforts have attempted to address them with varying degrees of success—examples from other settings offer useful insights for strengthening the interface between evidence and action. In the Ethiopian context, the National Information Platform for Nutrition (NiPN) represents an important shift toward a more responsive, demand-driven model that seeks to improve the relevance and uptake of evidence. Unlike conventional approaches that begin with research questions and proceed directly to data collection, Ethiopia’s NiPN starts with policy question formulation, aligning evidence generation with real-time decision-making priorities. This approach emphasizes embedding research in institutional processes and tailoring outputs to policy needs. The paper explores how NiPN addresses structural barriers to nutrition governance—such as limited institutional capacity, fragmented coordination, and weak knowledge translation. It engages multiple sectors in mapping evidence, analyzing data, and supporting dialogue to inform actionable recommendations. Using examples like the Seqota Declaration and the School Feeding Programme, the paper demonstrates how NiPN has improved policy relevance, intervention targeting, and national ownership. The Ethiopian case offers transferable insights for other countries seeking to institutionalize evidence-informed policymaking in complex, multisectoral domains.

Household food production and dietary diversity in a remote, former socialist society: Panel data evidence from Tajikistan

Background Despite a growing interest in household-level agriculture–nutrition linkage, evidence remains thin in countries like Tajikistan, one of the poorest former socialist countries where food crop production decisions by individual farm households had been significantly regulated by the government until recently. Objectives We narrow this knowledge gap by examining the linkages between households’ food production practice as well as their productivity performances and dietary diversity scores (DDS) of both the household and individual women in Tajikistan. Methods We use a panel sample of households and individual women of reproductive ages in the Khatlon province of Tajikistan, the poorest province and a major agricultural region of the country. Difference-in-difference propensity score regressions and panel fixed-effects instrumental variable regressions are applied. Results Higher overall diversity in food groups (FGs) produced by households, as well as greater overall production per land and per household member at the household level, leads to higher DDS both for the household and for individual women, particularly in areas with poor food market access. FG-specific analyses suggest that for vegetables, fruits, legumes/nuts/seeds, dairy products, and eggs, significant one-on-one linkage exists between own production and consumption for these FGs. Conclusions Results underscore the importance of supporting household-level agricultural diversification and agricultural productivity growth in Tajikistan to improve dietary diversity, especially in remote areas.

Evolving rural food environments in South Asia: The role of processed foods, traditional markets, and marketing influences

Farming households’ adaptation to climatic shocks in South Asia: A food systems perspective

Overview – Agrifood systems transformation in South Asia: An agenda for impact and learning at scale

Monitoring the impact of recent price volatility on food group consumption in Rwanda

This research uses high-frequency food price data from more than 60 Rwandan markets integrated with bi-weekly dietary consumption data collected during two periods in 2021/22 and 2023/24. During these periods considerable price fluctuations were observed, providing a unique opportunity to track consumption responses to large price instability created by global shocks.

Synopsis: Unlocking agricultural efficiency: A stochastic frontier analysis of smallholder farmers in Rwanda

This study assesses the technical efficiency of smallholder farmers in Rwanda, with a focus on maximizing crop output value and identifying the socioeconomic drivers that shape technical efficiency.

More land, more diverse diets? Exploring production and consumption trade-offs in the eastern Indo-Gangetic plains

Harvesting change: The impact of climate change on Africa’s agriFood systems

Africa is one of the most exposed continents to climate change. While global temperature has risen by 0.2°C per decade since 1991, in Africa the rate is faster, reaching 0.3°C (WMO 2022). Yet Africa contributes only modestly to climate change. Indeed, the continent emits 7 times less greenhouse gas compared to Europe and 15 times compared to North America (IPCC, 2023). In addition to rising temperatures, climate change affects Africa through several channels, including an increase in ocean levels, variations in precipitations (droughts and heavy rains), plant pests and animal diseases. Climate change is also expected to contribute to a significant reduction in arable land in the continent (IPCC, 2023). The new CAADP strategy and action plan for 2026-2035 recognizes that Africa is the hardest hit by climate change and that the phenomenon is one of the major threats to Africa’s agricultural systems and food security in the coming years. All of these changes will affect agricultural production, a major challenge for Africa, as African economies and livelihoods remain heavily dependent on agriculture. Agriculture still represents 16% of Africa GDP with contributions ranging from 3% in Southern Africa to 25% in the eastern part of the continent. Due to the low level of labor productivity in agriculture, the sector’s contributions to total employment are higher than those of other sectors. By inducing structural changes in agricultural production, climate change will also affect trade flows by shifting comparative advantages between and within continents. Prices will also be affected. This Policy Brief i shows how Africa’s agricultural production and trade patterns are altered by climate change. It highlights the large impacts of climate change on agricultural production, reinforcing results from other work. It shows that the impacts on prices compound the production impacts on African economies and people given many countries in the region are net importers. However, the work also shows that there are substantial differences across the region in the size of the impacts.

When trade saves natural resources: Evidence from cereals trade in SADC

Africa is one of the continents most vulnerable to climate change. While global temperatures have risen by 0.2°C per decade since 1991, Africa has registered a 0.3°C increase (WMO, 2022). Beyond rising temperatures, Africa faces various related challenges, including rising sea levels, unpredictable rainfall leading to both droughts and severe storms, and increased threats from plant pests and animal diseases. As a result, the continent is expected to see a significant decline in arable land, further compromising its agricultural future. Specifically, southern Africa is highly climate vulnerable. Water scarcity is critical for food security, yet trade can help reallocate cereals from water-rich to water-scarce areas. Indeed one often-overlooked aspect in the discussion about trade and climate change is how trade can actually help combat climate change. Indeed, when production is shifted from places that have limited environmental resources to those that are rich in them, the ecological footprint of economic activities can be lessened. For instance, international and regional trade have the potential to conserve water on both global and regional scales by exporting water-intensive goods from regions that have high water efficiency or abundant water resources to those with less availability (Fracasso 2014), yielding a much more efficient allocation of water resources around the world. SADC’s own regional water policy recognizes comparative advantage in water as a basis for trade integration (SADC 2005). This policy note reviews virtual water trade in the SADC region and tests whether trade flows reflect countries’ comparative advantage in water endowment, with a focus on cereals. It first presents an overview of virtual water trade flows in the region and uses an econometric model to test the link between water endowments and the water content of trade flows. We conclude with a discussion and some policy implications.

Rice milling and parboiling trade-offs for economic and nutritional gains with special attention to sub-Saharan Africa: A comprehensive review

Rice is an important source of calories and nutrients for people in low- and middle-income countries. In the quest to respond to consumer preferences and attract premium prices, paddy processors increase the degree of milling (polishing), largely affecting nutritional composition and economic value of milled rice. Milling and parboiling are crucial unit processing operations affecting the quality profile of rice. The literature poorly reports on milling and parboiling operations that provide economic and nutritional gains or losses. Thus, there are no standard milling and parboiling regimes recommended to influence technological and policy changes in favor of public health and nutrition. In this comprehensive review, rice milling and parboiling operations associated with nutritional, economic, food safety and environmental benefits have been presented and discussed. Optimal milling and parboiling strategies that provide nutritional, economic, food safety and environmental gains are proposed as alternatives to conventional processing technologies and practices. Improved parboiling and moderate degree of milling in two-stage systems appear to provide better economic and nutritional benefits.

A measure of industrial clustering: Considering relatedness and scale

JEL codes: L10; L50; L60

Rice productivity in Myanmar: Assessment of the 2025 dry season and outlook for the 2025 monsoon

We analyze paddy rice productivity and profitability for the 2024 and 2025 dry seasons, using data from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS), conducted between August 11 to October 26, 2025. The survey covered plots managed by 872 paddy producers.

IFPRI strategy 2026-2030: Food policy research for a changing world

IFPRI’s Strategy for 2026–2030 reaffirms the Institute’s commitment to providing research-based policy solutions. IFPRI works with partners to use the power of policy to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods, contribute to empowerment, and promote sustainability and climate resilience, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This new strategy responds to the many challenges and opportunities emerging today, from climate change to growing inequities to digital technologies and more. It combines a proven four-pronged research and engagement approach with five research themes that reflect a systems understanding of food policies—from farm to consumer. IFPRI’s research is designed to support impact at scale through country- and region-led policies that will help to sustainably end poverty, hunger, and malnutrition.

Agricultural innovation frames, policies, and instruments: Evolution, lessons, and future research

Regional implications of public investments and external shocks in Papua New Guinea: An economywide analysis

Improvements in telecommunications have enabled a tremendous increase in the flow of information across Papua New Guinea. Although transport costs remain high between various parts of the main island of Papua New Guinea, as well as between the main island and other parts of the country (e.g. the islands of New Britain and Bougainville to the East), phone and internet conditions enable government, traders and entrepreneurs to share market information that reduces transactions costs and improves market function. Nonetheless, there remain major differences in agricultural production, income sources and demand patterns across regions that are important to take into account in analyzing the impacts of external shocks and formulating development strategies. Earlier work on PNG by Schmidt et al., (2021) explored the effects of Covid-related income and world rice price shocks with a partial equilibrium model of PNG’s rice economy. Diao et al., (2021) used a regional multi-market model to analyze broader effects of Covid-19 and other shocks to agriculture and household incomes in four regions of PNG. Various other studies, including Dorosh and Pradesha (2022) and Diao et al. (2024), used national computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of PNG to analyze exchange rate, terms of trade, and productivity shocks on various household groups. In this paper, we extend these earlier analyses through use of a new regional CGE model that utilizes recent household survey data, including the 2023 IFPRI PNG rural household survey. The plan of this paper is as follows. The next section provides an overview of agriculture and economic growth in PNG over the last decade, highlighting the almost constant share of agriculture in GDP and very low per capita agricultural GDP growth rate. Section 3 describes the regional disaggregation of the PNG economy and the structure of household incomes and expenditure as reflected in the economywide database, the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), used in this analysis. Section 4 then presents a summary of the regional economywide model. (Details of the model are found in the annexes and in the references included in the paper.) Design of the model simulations and simulation results covering investments in agriculture and transport sectors, as well as world price shocks are discussed in Section 5. Chapter 6 concludes with a summary of the main findings and policy implications, as well as suggested areas for further work.

Public expenditure on agriculture, youth out-migration, and engagement in agriculture? Evidence from Nigeria

Theoretical models posit that migration decisions are driven by differences in economic opportunities across locations, including across rural and urban areas, which implies that increased rural investment can curb rural-urban migration and encourage engagement in agriculture. However, direct empirical evidence of this remains scant, especially on youth migration in Africa. We fill this knowledge gap by examining the effect of temporal changes in public expenditures for the agriculture sector (PEA) on rural youth’s migration and engagement in rural economies in Nigeria. We combine unique subnational data that capture PEA’s spatiotemporal variations and individual level youth data and estimate two-way fixed effects models. We find that a 1 percentage point increase (equivalent to a 25 percent increase) in the share of PEA, is associated with up to 0.9 percentage points reduction in youth’s out-migration. Conversely, an increase in PEA leads to increased youth engagement in farm activities. Our results suggest that public investments in rural economies can mitigate youth out-migration from rural areas. These results have important implications for informing youth and migration policies, especially in the context of Africa, often characterized by its youth bulge and the exodus of youth from rural areas because of perceived lack of economic opportunities.

Bridging the gap: How human-centered design can help unlock bottlenecks in the diffusion of small-scale irrigation in Nigeria

Ample evidence shows that small-scale irrigation (SSI) has positive impacts on agricultural productivity, poverty reduction, climate resilience and household food security, nutrition. Despite this, adoption of SSI has remained low in sub-Saharan Africa, including Nigeria, where previous research suggests potential for adoption is largest. Factors such as high cost of technologies, farmers’ risk behavior, lack of incentives, and lack of access to finance and capacity gaps have often been noted as key constraints limiting the adoption/scaling of SSI among smallholders. However, in an environment with low overall levels of use, it is important to not only focus on the challenges experienced by smallholder farmers, but also on those of key intermediary actors—specifically government, irrigation equipment distributors, and finance institutions—that are critical for a supportive enabling environment of SSI technology diffusion. To understand the constraints these groups encounter and propose innovative policy, financial, and supply chain solutions, we conducted a series of human-centered design (HCD) workshops in three locations in Nigeria. Key solutions proposed during nine workshops include the need for cross-sector coordination and policy harmonization, improved data and digital systems and platforms, customized financial products and risk-sharing options for SSI, capacity-sharing for extension services, and specific strategies to support women farmers so that they benefit equally.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: October 2025

Sudan’s markets in October 2025 showed relative stability with several commodities experiencing improved availability and quality. Wheat and wheat flour prices declined, while sorghum, millet, vegetables, lentils, meat, oilseeds, and sugar showed mixed but generally stable trends. Fuel prices fell early in the month before stabilizing, and fertilizer prices remained steady with better availability. Regional disparities persisted, with Darfur, Kordofan, and parts of Blue Nile continuing to record the highest prices for many goods due to conflict, transport disruptions, and liquidity constraints. Supply chain problems increased compared with September, driven by security concerns, high transport costs, exchange rate pressures, and limited cash access. Most merchants reported no major challenges related to storage, power, or hiring workers, although market safety concerns rose slightly, especially in North Darfur. Tax compliance increased at the federal level but remained highest at state and locality levels. Despite ongoing challenges, merchants continued to show resilience: over half plan to maintain current trade levels, nearly one-third expect to expand, and only small shares intend to reduce trade, change commodities, or relocate, although uncertainty increased modestly.

Rewriting the rules: How U.S. tariff paths could reshape global trade

This paper examines how the recent shift in United States tariff policy could reshape global agricultural trade and influence the stability of food systems worldwide. Using the MIRAGRODEP computable general equilibrium model, the analysis evaluates three policy scenarios that reflect the current trajectory of trade tensions: the North America scenario, the Liberation Day tariff package, and a renewed U.S.–China tariff confrontation. The scenario results reveal distinct lessons. The North America scenario shows that deeply integrated regional markets are extremely sensitive to tariff shocks, and even moderate tariff increases within North America lead to significant disruptions in agricultural trade and measurable welfare losses for Canada and Mexico. The Liberation Day scenario demonstrates that unilateral tariff escalation reduces U.S. competitiveness across a wide range of agricultural products and triggers substantial trade diversion toward countries with preferential access, particularly Mexico, which becomes the primary beneficiary of redirected U.S. import demand. The China scenario highlights that renewed U.S.–China tariff escalation produces severe distortions, especially in oilseed markets, as prohibitive tariffs drive China to shift its purchases almost entirely toward South American suppliers, sharply lowering U.S. export prices and fragmenting global supply chains. Across all scenarios, global agricultural trade contracts, supply chains become less efficient, and food systems become more exposed to climate and geopolitical shocks. These findings underscore the need for predictable and coordinated trade policies that limit uncertainty rather than amplify it. Strengthening trade diversification, investing in supply chain resilience, and aligning economic and geopolitical objectives remain essential for safeguarding global food security in an increasingly unstable trade environment.

Nutrition and dietary quality in Sri Lanka: Insights from the 2024-2025 BRIGHT survey

Key findings and policy implications • Dietary quality in Sri Lanka – defined in terms of consumption levels of different healthy food groups – falls well short of the Sri Lankan Ministry of Health’s 2021 Food-Based Dietary Guidelines (FBDG) targets, with clear imbalances across food groups. • Heavy dependence on starchy staples. Starchy foods dense in calories but sparse in nutrients provide over 60% of total energy consumption, highlighting a strong over-consumption of rice. • Low consumption of nutrient-rich foods. Intakes of fruits, dark green leafy vegetables (DGLVs), and legumes are at only about one-third of the recommended levels. • Some households report zero consumption of healthy food groups. More than 30% of households report zero consumption of dairy foods in the past 7 days, while 15% report zero consumption of dark green leafy vegetables, and 5% zero fruit, indicating that important foods are absent from many household diets. • Multidimensional dietary deprivation. Nearly all Sri Lankan households are deprived in at least one food group. A typical deprived household falls below the reference threshold in six to seven of eight food groups and consumes only about 37% of the recommended amounts for the foods in which consumption is lower than recommended. • Significant dietary inequality across sectors. Dietary deprivation is most acute in the estate sector, while rural and urban areas fare moderately better. • There is a clear need to promote healthy dietary diversification, especially higher consumption of fruits, legumes, vegetables and dairy, while moderating excess consumption of starchy staples. • Institutionalize regular monitoring of diet deprivation, using the Reference Diet Deprivation (ReDD) index and other dietary indicators to guide targeted nutrition interventions. • Support further research on the drivers of dietary patterns in Sri Lanka to better understand its determinants and differences between sectors.

From pledges to action: NDC 3.0 for poverty reduction and climate justice in Nepal

Located in the heart of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region, Nepal plays a vital geopolitical and ecological role in South Asia’s climate landscape. Although the country contributes less than 0.03 percent to global greenhouse gas emissions (MoFE 2020) and has extensive forest cover of 46 percent (MoFE 2025), it faces disproportionate risks from climate-induced disasters, such as glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), erratic monsoons, and prolonged droughts. The HKH region spans eight countries and hosts 10 major river basins and more than 87,000 square kilometers of glaciers, delivering water and ecosystem services to more than 1.9 billion people downstream (ICIMOD 2025a). Within this complex hydrological system, Nepal’s rivers—including the Koshi, Gandaki, and Karnali—not only sustain local livelihoods but also feed millions in India’s Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, and even parts of China. Climate justice is imperative in this context: Nepal’s low emissions profile stands in stark contrast to its high vulnerability (CVF 2024), requiring urgent attention to equity, adaptation finance, and inclusive development pathways. This policy note discusses Nepal’s role in climate justice diplomacy, examines the regional and country-level context of climate risk, and assesses Nepal’s third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0) to reframe climate action through a justice-centered lens.

Climate risks and agricultural changes in conflict-affected Myanmar

Climate change and conflict are increasingly shaping livelihoods in Myanmar, with agricultural households among the most directly affected. Yet, empirical evidence on how these stressors affect farmers’ adaptation strategies and agricultural assets remains limited. We draw on unique largescale primary surveys: Over a three-year period, we conducted bi-annual surveys with nearly 5,000 farmers, collecting data on exposure to conflict, natural risks, climate change perceptions, agricultural adaptation, and agricultural land valuation.

Accessing Aswesuma: Key findings on Sri Lanka’s new social protection program from the bright 2024-25 national survey

• We use the nationally representative BRIGHT 2024-25 survey to document Aswesuma access at the national and subnational level, and among poor and food-insecure households • At the time of the BRIGHT 2024-2025 survey, the Aswesuma program covered 29.1% of the Sri Lankan population compared to just 18.8% of the population under Samurdhi in 2016: a 10.3 percentage point improvement. However, at the time of the survey, the Aswesuma program has still not reached its target of 35% national population coverage. • Encouragingly, the largest expansion of cash transfer access was in upland (Estate) districts, who had limited access to cash transfers under the previous Samurdhi program • Aswesuma access among poor populations was highest in the Estate sector (56%), followed by the rural (46%) and urban populations (44%) • Aswesuma transfers are unlikely to reduce employment or other income-generating activities among the poor, as Aswesuma cash transfers only represent 19% of the expenditures of the poorest 20% of households, and just 10% for the next poorest group. • While Aswesuma transfers may protect households against low calorie intake (hunger), Aswesuma households still have low-quality diets, under-consuming fruits, vegetables, dairy, and legumes in particular • Nutritional knowledge is also much poorer among Aswesuma beneficiaries than the rest of the Sri Lankan population, particularly knowledge of key micronutrient-rich foods • These results imply the need for a wide range of policy-oriented research and follow-up surveys on drivers of access to Aswesuma, but also impacts of Aswesuma on key welfare indicators • There is also a need to explore and improve multisectoral coordination between Aswesuma and other programs on child nutrition and development, as well as women’s empowerment.

The effects of a secondary school scholarship on youth outcomes: Evidence from a randomized trial

Although primary school enrollment has steadily increased in sub-Saharan Africa in recent years, enrollment in secondary school remains generally low in comparison with other regions (Evans and Mendez Acosta 2021). In Ethiopia, enrollment in lower secondary school roughly doubled over the past decade to reach an estimated 46 percent in 2021–2022, but substantial heterogeneity exists across rural and urban areas and across poorer and richer households (Tiruneh and Molla 2024). In rural areas, long distances from home to school often pose a substantial barrier to secondary school enrollment, especially for poor households. In addition to the real or perceived risks of insecurity linked to attendance – encountering insecure conditions along the route, or risks for youth who reside away from home to attend – these lengthy distances imply substantial out-of-pocket costs for transportation or accommodation, and households may struggle to manage these costs (Leight et al. 2022). Limited post-primary educational attainment can have substantial adverse effects for youth, limiting their opportunities for future employment and income generation and increasing the likelihood of early marriage for girls (Giacobino et al. 2024). This project note reports the main findings from a randomized trial conducted in rural Ethiopia, which assessed the effects of a scholarship for lower secondary school students (ninth and tenth grade) targeting extremely poor youth. We find that the provision of a scholarship led to a 12-percentage-point increase in the probability of secondary school enrollment two years later compared to youth who did not receive a scholarship, an effect that was greatest among students who received early notification about the scholarship (one year before eligibility). There was no change in attendance or academic performance, suggesting that students in the treatment arm performed as well as those in the control arm. Some evidence also indicated a small decline in the likelihood of child marriage and an enhancement in youth well-being. Overall, the findings suggest that the scholarship may be a valuable intervention to increase secondary school attainment, particularly if announced earlier; however, a third of youth who passed the primary school exam and were offered a scholarship still did not enroll. This suggests there are other important barriers to secondary school progression in this sample.

Implications of increased urbanization and consumer awareness on future food supplies in Tanzania

Tanzania’s food system faces increasing pressure from rapid urbanization, population growth, and shifting consumer preferences toward more nutritious and diverse diets. This study analyzes how these macro trends will affect national food supply needs by 2050 and identifies key policy entry points to ensure an efficient, sustainable, and equitable food system transformation. Using census data (2012–2022) and the National Panel Survey (2020/21), combined with two international healthy diet benchmarks – the EAT-Lancet Reference Diet (ELRD) and the Hypothetical Micronutrient Adequate Diet (HMAD) – the report projects the required food supply volumes to provide all Tanzanians with healthy diets by 2050. Tanzania’s population is projected to more than double, from 59.8 million in 2020/21 to 138.1 million by 2050, with the share of urban residents rising from 34.5% to 55.4%. This demographic shift implies that a relatively smaller rural workforce will need to feed a much larger and more urban population, requiring higher productivity and stronger rural-urban linkages. Current diets in Tanzania are heavily dominated by cereals and sugar products and contain too few fruits, dairy products, and eggs (according to both healthy diet references) combined with insufficient amounts of vegetables (according to ELRD) as well as meat and fish products (according to HMAD). To assure a heathy diet for all by 2050, the supplies and consumption of food from these food groups must expand substantially. This not only requires that total annual food supplies increase from 24 million tons to 52 million tons (under ELRD) or 62 million tons (under HMAD), but certainly also that its composition change dramatically: vegetables by roughly 3 times of current supply; oils by 4 times; fruits by 5 times; dairy by 8 times; eggs by 10 times (under ELRD) and 37 times (under HMAD), and meat and fish by 4 and 8 times (under HMAD), respectively. In contrast, cereal and sugar production can remain stable or even decrease slightly without compromising nutritional adequacy. Meeting these targets requires significant productivity gains. For key commodities such as milk, oranges, sunflower oil, tomatoes, and beans, yield improvements of 2-10 times current levels are needed, though still within feasible global productivity frontiers. Addressing post-harvest losses (PHL) and expanding processing, cold storage, and urban agriculture are possibly also critical avenues to reduce waste and improve food availability. From an environmental viewpoint, the study urges the adoption of sustainable intensification practices and climate-smart livestock management, with emphasis on reducing emissions per unit of output, diversifying protein sources toward fish and poultry, and improving logistics and market inclusion for smallholders. In policy terms, the report highlights alignment between its findings and Tanzania’s Agriculture Master Plan (2024), noting that 12 of the 20 government-prioritized commodities (e.g., banana, avocado, tomatoes, sunflower, beans, and dairy) are also essential for future healthy diets. However, important food items such as eggs, onions, leafy vegetables, mangoes, and oranges remain underemphasized and deserve greater policy focus. The agenda on PHL, though formally acknowledged, is also inadequately mainstreamed into Tanzania’s broader agricultural policy framework. In conclusion, achieving healthy diets for all Tanzanians by 2050 will require, in addition to raising nutrition awareness and improving economic affordability among the population: • A more than doubling of total food supplies with major shifts toward nutrient-rich foods, • Substantial agricultural productivity and efficiency gains, • A stronger emphasis on reducing PHL and strengthening urban food systems, and • A coordinated policy focus on nutrition-sensitive and environmentally sustainable production.

Food insecurity in post-crisis Sri Lanka: Evidence from the 2024-2025 BRIGHT survey

We assess food insecurity in Sri Lanka using the BRIGHT National Household Survey data for 2024-2025, which collected data on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) developed by the FAO. • 32.8% of households in Sri Lanka experienced moderate or severe food insecurity in the 12 months prior to the survey, with 29.6% classified as moderately and 3.2% classified as severely food insecure. In contrast, food insecurity was just 12% in the 2019 Household Income and Expenditure survey (HIES), such that food insecurity has almost tripled since the 2022 economic crisis. • A very high 54.5% of Estate households (households that reside in housing on an estate/plantation) experienced food insecurity (43.2% moderate, and 11.4% severe), compared to 35.3% of urban and 31.8% of rural households. Eastern (39.1%), Uva (38.5%), and Southern (38.1%) provinces recorded the highest food insecurity rates. • Dry-zone households show slightly higher moderate and severe insecurity (34.6%) than inter-mediate (31.1%) and wet zones (24.6%). • Households dependent on informal employment are more than twice as likely to report food in-security (41% moderate, 5% severe) compared to formal employment households (18% moderate, 1% severe). • Fishing households are the most food insecure across all livelihoods with 58% experiencing moderate or severe insecurity, including 10% reporting severe food insecurity. Households de-pendent on construction (41%), agriculture (38%), textiles/artisans (35%), manufacturing (29%), food and beverage preparation (27%) and services (23%) also reported high food insecurity. • Splitting by wealth quintiles, the poorest 20% of households in Sri Lanka have a food insecurity prevalence of 45% including 10% who are severely food insecure. Food insecurity declines as wealth increases but is still high for the second (34%) and middle quintiles (25%). • The FIES-based indicator reports much higher food insecurity in 2024 (32.8%) than the WFP’s alternative CARI method of estimating food insecurity (16%). • FIES-based measures can support more frequent monitoring of food insecurity in Sri Lanka via phone surveys and help assess the impacts of programs such as Aswesuma.

Climate shocks and climate smart agricultural adoption in Sri Lanka, 2024-2025

We assess the adoption of climate-smart agricultural (CSA) practices and the role of climate shocks using the BRIGHT Integrated Household Survey data for 2024–2025. • Twenty percent of farmers faced severe climatic shocks, while 40 percent faced more moderate negative shocks. • The largest share of farmers reporting natural shocks lived in the dry zone. • Forty-four percent of farmers were negatively affected by pests and diseases, including 72 .per-cent of oilseed and tuber farmers. • Seventy-four percent of farmers reported that changing weather patterns affect their income. • Forty-one percent of farmers reported that they were currently using at least one climate smart agricultural practice (CSA). • Crop type strongly predicts CSA adoption. Vegetable, pulse, and maize farmers are significantly more likely to adopt CSA practices, with marginal effects indicating increases of roughly 16–17 percentage points. In contrast, rice cultivation is not significantly associated with adoption—im-portant given rice’s dominance in the country. • Adoption levels of CSA practices vary sharply across provinces. Eastern Province shows the highest adoption (66 percent), while Sabaragamuwa records the lowest adoption at just 14 per-cent. • Exposure to climate shocks increases CSA adoption. Experiencing a moderate or severe climate shock in the previous year is associated with a 6–7 percentage point increase in CSA adoption, suggesting that shocks are prompting adaptive responses. Policy Implications for Sri Lanka • Strengthen CSA adoption in lagging provinces. Sabaragamuwa, North Western, and Western show consistently low adoption despite exposure to climate risks. • Expand and tailor extension services to promote CSA for the most climate vulnerable farmers.

The state of agricultural extension services in Sri Lanka, 2024-2025

We assess the state of Sri Lanka’s agricultural extension services using the BRIGHT 2024-2025 national survey. We examine use of or access to extension by land size and wealth, farmers’ trust in different providers, and farmers use of innovative sources of extension, including digital channels.. • Fifty-five percent of Sri Lankan farmers accessed some form of extension in 2024/2025 • Public extension agents remain the most trusted source of advice, yet their reach differs sharply by region—from as high as 75% in North-Western Province to as low as 30% in Northern Province. • Access to agricultural extension varies widely across provinces, with the highest access in Northern Province (84%) and the lowest in Central and Western Provinces (around 44%). • In the Northern Province, despite low public provision, farmers compensate through strong reliance on input retailers (64%) and Farmers’ Organizations (71%), indicating robust informal ex-tension networks. • Extension access is strongly related to cultivated area and asset ownership. Only 40% of farmers cultivating less than 0.5 acres received any form of extension, compared to 71% among those with more than 3 acres. Similarly, only 39% of households in the lowest wealth quintile accessed extension, compared to 62% in the highest quintile. • Wealthier farmers and those with more cultivated acres not only access extension more frequently but also from a wider range of sources, underscoring inequality in information access and opportunity. • Digital channels, such as Facebook and other online groups, play a growing but still limited role, concentrated mainly in the Western Province where internet access is strongest. Policy Implications for Sri Lanka • Targeted efforts are needed to expand extension access in lagging regions—particularly Central, Western, and Uva Provinces—by strengthening reach of both public and non-public agents. • Dedicated actions are needed to expand extension services across a wider range of crops—particularly beyond rice and the traditional plantation sector—as well as across sub-sectors • Given the high trust and engagement within farmer associations, these organizations should be leveraged as key partners for training delivery, group learning, and scaling up new practices. • More research is needed on the effectiveness of different extension modalities, including digital

Water insecurity in Sri Lanka, 2024-2025: Evidence from the 2024-2025 BRIGHT survey

We assess water insecurity in Sri Lanka using the BRIGHT Integrated Household Survey data for 2024-2025. Key Findings • Compared to the 2016 DHS data, the 2024 BRIGHT results show moderate improvements in access to improved drinking water sources. Estate sector households show the greatest relative improvement, with the share using improved water sources increasing by approximately five percentage points. This shift is driven primarily by a 15-percentage-point rise in the use of protected wells, although nearly half (49%) of estate households continue to rely on rivers, springs, or tank water. • Most households in Sri Lanka report few insecurity experiences, and are therefore mostly water secure, with 90% not experiencing water insecurity. • Differences between groups are subtle and occur mainly between marginal and low levels of water security, rather than between fully secure and insecure households. • 68% of estate households (households on plantations), experienced at least water insecurity experience compared to only 28% of urban households and 33% of rural households. • Households in dry agroecological zones face slightly higher risks water insecurity (11%) com-pared to 9% of in both intermediate and wet zones. • Poverty is a key predictor of water insecurity. The poorest households are 6.8 times more likely to experience extreme water insecurity than the richest households. • Sri Lanka has lower levels of water insecurity than most other lower-middle income countries but needs to address poor water security in populations left behind. Improving water security in estate areas and in the dry zone should be national water security priorities