Publications and Datasets

Traders and agri-food value chain resilience: The case of maize in Myanmar

Private sector promotion of agricultural technologies: Experimental evidence from Nigeria

Private sector agricultural businesses are critical for scaling new and potentially environmentally-friendly technologies, though much attention has focused on public agricultural investment. Working with a private firm, we conduct an experiment testing the effectiveness of alternative marketing strategies for promoting the adoption of urea super granule fertilizer (USG) among rice farmers in Nigeria. We disentangle the effects of price discount vouchers and the firm’s standard marketing package. We find that the firm’s standard marketing increases the adoption of USG fertilizer by 24 percentage points while reducing prilled urea utilization by 17 percentage points. Discount vouchers increase adoption of USG by an additional eight percentage points, but are not profitable for the firm. Although the adoption of USG leads to substantial environmental benefits by reducing nitrogen loss, farmer rice yields did not increase. Thus, despite the potential public benefits, private incentives facing firms and farmers are insufficient to drive scaling after a one-year intervention.

Herder-related violence, labor allocation, and the gendered response of agricultural households

Violent conflict between nomadic herders and settled agricultural communities in Nigeria occurs as both groups clash over the use of land and natural resources, in part, due to a changing climate. We generate theory and evidence to study the labor responses of individuals within agricultural households to herder-related violence and consider a “shadow of violence” mechanism, whereby previous exposure to a violent event alters labor responses to a recent event. Using panel data from 2010 through 2019, we highlight how exposure to violence can lead to differing responses in the planting or harvest seasons and among men or women. In the planting season, among both men and women living in households with no previous exposure to herder-related violence, we find that exposure (i.e., singular exposure) leads to a reduction in household enterprise work, but among households with previous exposure experience, exposure (i.e., repeated exposure) leads to an increase in household enterprise work. Meanwhile, repeated exposure to herder-related violence reduces agricultural work among men only. This leads total hours worked to decline in response to singular exposure and to increase in response to repeated exposure especially among women. In the harvest season, we find that singular exposure increases agricultural work among both men and women, but repeated exposure reduces agricultural work among men only. JEL Codes: E26, E29, I31, Q12

The agrifood-system wage gap and structural transformation: cross-country evidence

Evidence from high income countries shows that the gender pay gap in wage employment has decreased over time, though it has not closed. However, little evidence exists on how the gender wage gap varies as countries undergo processes of structural transformation that lead to rising wages and a shift in employment from primary agricultural production. Disaggregating agricultural, agrifood-system and non-agrifood-system wage employment, this study provides empirical estimates of the gender pay gap across countries at different stages of structural transformation. Based on a multi-country dataset and using the Kitagawa-Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition approach, the study sheds light on the different factors driving the pay gap along the structural transformation process. Our analysis shows significant gender gaps in both agrifood systems and non-agrifood systems that do not always decrease with structural transformation. Both differences in female and male employee’s observed characteristics and differences in returns continue to contribute to gender gaps, suggesting the need for gender-responsive policies to address the underlying factors that drive these gaps.

Achieving transformational sustainable land Intensification: Integrated general equilibrium and portfolio analysis for Senegal

Feeding a growing global population while conserving natural resources remains a central challenge of Sustainable Intensification (SI). Despite decades of SI efforts, cropland expansion in many developing countries continues to accelerate, contributing to deforestation and biodiversity loss. Even with observed increases in crop yields, studies suggest that farmers continue to expand cropland, underscoring the need to consider market dynamics and the economywide effects of productivity gains. This study offers a new perspective on achieving transformational sustainable land intensification by treating farming activities as investment decisions shaped by risk and return under production and markets uncertainties. Unlike the traditional SI strategies that focus on efficiency gains through improved inputs or agronomic practices, we apply an optimal portfolio analysis to cropland allocation, aiming to enhance farming efficiency by considering market interconnections across sectors. Using Senegal as a case study, we demonstrate that adopting an optimal diversification strategy on new cropland investment could reduce land expansion needs by up to 68 % by 2030. This strategy not only helps mitigate emissions and reduce water footprint but also enhances crop biodiversity. Socioeconomic and environmental benefits are found to be greater when the country promotes high-value crops in its portfolio, such as fruits and vegetables, compared to grain crops. Our findings also contribute to ongoing debates around land-sparing versus land-sharing strategies and offer new insights into the drivers of cropland expansion in light of current global land use patterns.

Profiling Chinese entrepreneurs

Entrepreneurship has played a crucial role in China’s economic growth. However, research has predominantly focused on listed firms and state-owned enterprises, overlooking the vast number of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) due to data paucity. Limited knowledge exists on the characteristics of entrepreneurs, particularly those in the SME sector. This study aims to address this knowledge gap by profiling two types of Chinese entrepreneurs: self-employed and incorporated private business owners. The analysis utilizes data from two large surveys of entrepreneurs and salaried workers conducted in the same six provinces of China (N = 8948, comprising 3218 self-employed entrepreneurs, 1338 incorporated entrepreneurs, and 4392 salaried workers). The comparison reveals that self-employed entrepreneurs share more similarities with incorporated entrepreneurs than salaried workers in terms of key personality traits. Both groups of entrepreneurs exhibit higher risk tolerance, greater trust in others, and stronger interpersonal skills compared to their salaried counterparts. On the other hand, self-employed entrepreneurs align more closely with salaried workers in terms of human capital and family background than with incorporated entrepreneurs. The findings suggest that equalizing opportunities, particularly in education, could pave the way for self-employed entrepreneurs to transition into incorporated entrepreneurship.

Women’s tenure security on collective lands: A conceptual framework

Within discussions of land and resource rights, there is growing attention to women’s rights, mostly in terms of household and individual rights to private property. This leaves unanswered questions about whether and how women’s land rights can be secured under collective tenure, upon which billions of people worldwide depend. There is an important gap in conceptual tools, empirical understanding, and policy recommendations on this topic. To address this gap and lay the foundations for a sound body of empirical studies and appropriate policies, we develop a conceptual framework to improve understanding of women’s land rights under collective tenure. We discuss what secure tenure for women on collective lands would entail, then what factors would affect women’s tenure security. We give attention to particularities of rangelands, forests, and other types of collective lands as well as commonalities across types. A key theme that emerges is that for women to have secure tenure under collective tenure, the collective (group) itself must have tenure security and the women must have secure rights within this collective. The latter requires us to consider the governance structures, how men and women access and control land, and the extent to which women have voice and power within the collective. More consistent analyses of collective tenure systems using the conceptual framework presented in this paper can help to identify which action resources are important for groups to secure rights to collective lands, and for women to advocate for their rights within the group.

A comparative study of the legal and regulatory dimension of seed sector development in Sub-Saharan Africa using regulatory systems maps: The case of Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Uganda

Agency and behavior change in agricultural research for development: New directions for guiding agri-food system transformations

CONTEXT Agri-food system transformations require change across sectors and actors within the system. Initiatives contributing to these changes need to connect system change processes to individual and collective agency and behaviors. OBJECTIVE We propose a conceptual framework on agency and behavior change for transforming agri-food systems (ACT framework). ACT emphasizes agri-food system actors’ behaviors with attention to their power, agency, and the influence of structural agri-food system elements. Researchers can apply ACT to assess an initiative’s contributions to changes in system elements through individual and collective behaviors. METHODS We conducted literature reviews and key informant interviews for 29 initiative case studies. Using ACT, we identified patterns in terms of initiatives’ targeted actors, behaviors, and the factors shaping actors’ agency and behavior. We then applied ACT in an initiative in Zimbabwe to develop a theory of change that links behavior change pathways with broader systems transformation. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS The reviewed initiatives focused heavily on shaping producers’ behavior through knowledge transfer, less often considering other actors and structural challenges and opportunities. Key informants frequently reported enablers and impediments to achieve initiative outcomes that were associated with structural system elements. Few were able to articulate their initiative’s theory of change and underlying assumptions. SIGNIFICANCE ACT can support a more diverse and theory-based exploration of agri-food system initiatives’ target actors, behaviors, and factors shaping behaviors. Development professionals can apply the ACT framework to design more effective TOCs that attend to diverse actor groups and leverage the factors influencing these actors’ agency and behaviors.

Country profile – Kenya: Gender, climate change, and nutrition linkages

Agriculture is vital to Kenya’s economy, accounting for 20% of the country’s GDP in 2020. Yet the growth of the sector has slowed in recent years due to unfavorable weather conditions, leading to a reduction in crop and livestock performance (Central Bank of Kenya, 2023). While employment in agriculture has been steadily declining (to 32% in 2023), the sector still employs a large share of the rural population and is the main source of informal employment, rural income, and livelihoods (D’Alessandro et al., 2015; ILO 2025). A majority of Kenyan farmers operate on a small scale and are solely dependent on rainfall (D’Alessandro et al., 2015). However, since the 1970s, the country has experienced significant changes in rainfall pat terns–average rainfall during the long season has decreased while rainfall during other times of the year has increased and the country has experienced more frequent climate extreme events (Kogo et al. 2021). Increased climate variability has negative effects on agriculture and may exacerbate inequalities within the sector. Due to gender inequalities and gender-differentiated roles in agrifood systems, men and women do not experience climate change and variability in the same ways (Balikoowa et al., 2019; Lecoutere et al. 2023). According to the World Economic Forum, women are more vulnerable than men to climate change due to lower education and exclusion from the political and domestic decision-making processes that affect their lives (Gunawardena, 2020).

Case studies on efforts to digitalize payments in agri-food value chains

Agriculture remains the backbone of rural economies across much of both Sub-Saharan Africa and South and Southeast Asia, employing 54 and 43 percent of the workforce, respectively, and providing livelihoods for most of the rural poor (GSMA, 2020; Nair and Varghese, 2020). Yet, financial transactions in agri-food value chains continue to rely overwhelmingly on cash. The 2021 Global Findex survey finds that most adults in low- and middle-income countries who were paid for agricultural products received their payment in cash. On average, one in four recipients, and fewer than one in six in Sub-Saharan Africa, received agricultural payments into an account (Nair and Varghese, 2020; Demirgüç-Kunt et al., 2022). This reliance on cash introduces a range of inefficiencies and risks, including high transaction costs, security vulnerabilities, lack of transparency, and exclusion from formal financial services (BTCA, 2023a). Digitalizing agricultural payments offers a promising solution to these challenges. Digital financial ser vices (DFS) for the agriculture sector, including mobile money, e-wallets, digital banking, digital credit, savings products, insurance, and e-commerce solutions tailored to agricultural value chains, can facilitate safer, faster, and more transparent transactions while simultaneously connecting farmers and intermediary actors to broader financial ecosystems (GSMA, 2020). By digitalizing payments, farmers can build verifiable financial histories that enable access to formal credit and insurance markets, manage income more effectively, and reduce the risks associated with cash handling. For agribusinesses, digital payments offer substantial operational efficiencies: they lower cash handling costs, improve procurement transparency, support traceability initiatives crucial for compliance with international sustainability standards, and enhance supplier loyalty through faster and more reliable payment processes (Beaman et al., 2014; Nair and Varghese, 2020; BTCA, 2023a).

Women’s economic empowerment and leadership: Examining an intervention for smallholder farmers delivered via farmer producer organizations in Guatemala using qualitative methods

Women work across multiple nodes in agricultural value chains, though their participation in value chains varies within and across contexts and their contributions are often underrecognized (Malapit et al., 2020; Quisumbing et al., 2021). Addressing issues such as weak economic growth, climate change, and hunger will require strengthening agricultural value chains, though doing so without a gender-sensitive lens may exacerbate existing gender inequalities within them (Rubin & Manfre, 2014). Development practitioners seeking to strengthen agricultural value chains are increasingly interested in programs that use group-based approaches, as they may reach many people efficiently using such a strategy. However, there is not much evidence on how to increase women’s economic opportunities in agricultural value chains and bolster women’s leadership within the context of group-based interventions. TechnoServe, with funding support from the Walmart Foundation, began implementing the Smallholder Market Access (SMA) program in Guatemala and Nicaragua in 2019. The goal of this program was to work with farmer producer organizations (FPOs) and affiliated smallholder farmers in fresh produce agricultural value chains (AVCs) to increase the productivity, profits, and the market share of FPOs among smallholder farmers. The program also sought to strengthen women’s inclusion in AVCs, leadership, and empowerment by offering both gender-responsive and gender-transformative program components, particularly though agronomy trainings and gender equality trainings for women and men, as well as women’s leadership trainings for women only. This qualitative study focuses on SMA in Guatemala. We investigated gender dynamics in FPOs, women’s empowerment, women’s leadership, and how SMA may influence these themes. Ultimately, the goal of this study was to gain insights on the strengths of SMA programming with regard to women smallholder farmers’ economic and leadership opportunities, as well as to identify opportunities to strengthen the program. We collected data from in-depth interviews with eight SMA staff, nine FPO lead ers, and 18 FPO members. We also conducted six single-sex focus group discussions with FPO members, which included 15 women and 13 men total. The FPOs sampled did not receive the full SMA treatment prior to data collection; as such, the results presented in this study reflect perceptions of different components of SMA that had been only partially implemented prior to data collection.

IFPRI Malawi Monthly Maize Market Report, June 2025

Highlights Retail prices of maize increased by 8 percent in June. Prices rose in all regions of Malawi despite continued imports. Maize retailed above the government-mandated price in 13 out of 26 monitored markets.

Wages of the poor and food price inflation: Insights from the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey in Q4 2024

This research note examines changes in food prices and their effects on the cost of both common and healthy diets, as well as on the purchasing power of casual wages. Data on food prices and casual wage levels were collected through interviews with food vendors in rural and urban areas across Myanmar, conducted between December 2021 and December 2024 as part of the ongoing Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS).

Double burden or Newfound freedom? Women’s empowerment amid large-scale male labor migration from rural Tajikistan

Labor migration is generally motivated by the prospect of higher earnings abroad, and many migrants support their left-behind household members through remittances. Migrants’ long-term absence from home may, however, also affect intra-household dynamics among those remaining behind. Relying on primary qualitative data as well as quantitative data from 938 married women, we analyze empowerment impacts of migration on women in rural southern Tajikistan. Tajikistan is one of the most remittance-dependent countries in the world. A large share of young men migrates internationally, leaving behind – and often supporting – a multi-generational household. Yet, strong social norms limit the decision-making power and mobility of women, particularly of young women. Whereas senior women report noticeable differences when their spouses migrate, this is far less so for young women who live with their parents-in-law. Our study demonstrates that accounting for a respondent’s position within the household is key to understanding empowerment outcomes of its members.

How climate-induced conflict is shaping rural Nigeria

As climate change stretches Nigeria’s dry seasons and disrupts traditional grazing patterns, tensions between nomadic herders and settled farmers fuel violent conflict—most intensely just before the planting season. New research shows how repeated exposure to violence shifts labour patterns differently by gender and across agricultural seasons. While households often pivot to non-farm enterprise work, these shifts fail to offset economic losses, revealing indirect costs of conflict. Despite policy efforts such as open-grazing bans, violence has surged, highlighting the failure of exclusionary approaches and the need for inclusive policymaking.

Commercialization of Papua New Guinea’s vegetable sector: Identifying constraints using quantitative, qualitative, and large language model methods

This paper evaluates the constraints within Papua New Guinea’s vegetable sector, drawing on large scale household surveys, extensive qualitative interviews with key stakeholders, and Large Language Model (LLM) methods. Our survey data reveal that vegetable production is ubiquitous, with almost all households surveyed (91%) growing at least one vegetable. Indigenous varieties, such as leafy greens (96%) and fresh beans (69%), are widely cultivated across regions, while high-value vegetables like onion (17%) and tomato (19%) show more regional concentration. Over half (53%) of PNG vegetable farmers sell their produce, with farmers located in the nonseasonal highlands agro-ecological area leading in market participation (66%), contributing to an overall commercialization rate of 24% (defined as the share of pro duction sold). However, modern input use, particularly improved seed adoption, significantly lags behind output commercialization in all agroecological zones except the islands survey areas. The quantitative analysis, using the PNG Rural Household Survey 2023, and the qualitative analysis, drawing from both manual review and LLM-assisted processing of in-depth interview notes, consistently identify poor feeder roads as critical bottlenecks for every stakeholder across PNG’s vegetable value chain. Beyond transportation, these interviews repeatedly highlighted persistent seed supply shortages and high seed costs as significant hurdles. Since PNG depends on imported vegetable seeds, several structural and procedural barriers contribute to these shortages. These include potentially arduous quarantine procedures, limited foreign exchange for seed imports, and cumbersome permit processes, often leaving major distributors with insufficient stock. These reported bottlenecks may contribute to the low improved seed adoption and use reflected in the household survey analysis.

How good are livestock statistics in Africa?

Livestock supports the livelihoods of around one billion people in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) (Thorne and Conroy 2017, Baltenweck et al. 2020). However, growth and productivity of the livestock sector in many LMICs are not keeping pace with the increasing demand for animal-source foods. Boosting the sector’s productivity is crucial for poverty reduction in LMICs, which continue to face multifaceted challenges and shocks that threaten the sustainability of food systems. This, in turn, requires reliable livestock data for informing livestock policies and investments. However, there is a significant gap in the quality and reliability of livestock data, which inhibits evaluations of the livestock sector’s role in livelihoods and national economies and therefore impedes evidence-based livestock policies and investments.

Do others’ health count for peanuts? Health, market returns, and pro-sociality

Individuals often make decisions considering both private returns and welfare impacts on others. Food safety decisions by smallholder agricultural producers exemplify this choice, particularly in low-income countries where farmers often consume some of the food crops they produce and sell or donate the rest. We conduct a lab-in-the-field experiment with peanuts producers in Senegal to study the decision to invest in food safety information, exogenously varying the degree of private returns (monetary or health-wise) and welfare impacts on others. Producers are willing to pay real money for food safety information even absent the potential for private returns, but willingness to pay increases with the potential for private returns. A randomized information treatment significantly increases willingness to pay in all scenarios. Our results shed light on the complex interplay between altruism and economic decisions in the presence of externalities, and point to the potential of timely and targeted information to address food safety issues.

Persistence of individual and social preferences in rural settings

Preferences play a key role in decision-making and are generally assumed as time-invariant in economic modeling despite the mixed empirical evidence. We examine the stability of individual and social preferences in rural settings using the COVID-19 pandemic as a major global shock. We employ a unique longitudinal dataset comprising 1,262 smallholder households, based on interviews with household heads conducted across four survey waves between 2019 and 2022. We find a temporal, two-year shift in risk tolerance, while interpersonal trust and generosity perceptions show a sustained deterioration over three years. We explore possible variations by household characteristics and the degree of exposure to the virus, self-confinement, and extreme weather events.

Rethinking delivery modalities in conflict-affected settings: Why beneficiaries in Sudan prefer digital transfers

The recent surge in armed conflicts across Africa is increasing demand for humanitarian and social assistance, creating significant pressure on humanitarian actors to deliver life-saving support amid insecurity and constrained resources. The conflict that erupted in Sudan in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has resulted in the world’s largest displacement crisis, triggering an acute and multidimensional humanitarian emergency requiring urgent and substantial international support. These armed conflicts in Africa are threatening important gains in poverty reduction made in the last few decades. While armed conflicts and associated crises increase the need for assistance, they simultaneously undermine the capacity to deliver it. In conflict-affected settings, the operational environment is often marked by damaged infrastructure, disrupted markets, weakened institutions, and limited humanitarian access. These challenges hinder the effectiveness, targeting, and coverage of social protection and humanitarian aid programs (Ghorpade, 2017; 2020; Lind et al., 2022). Moreover, the proliferation of armed groups—including both state and non-state actors—can obstruct aid delivery or divert assistance, further limiting program reach and impact. Compounding these challenges is a widening humanitarian financing gap, driven by escalating needs and declining donor contributions. In response, development and humanitarian actors are increasingly exploring cost-effective delivery mechanisms to improve efficiency, transparency, and reach of humanitarian aid to vulnerable populations. Among these, digital transfers, including mobile money, offer promising avenues for delivering assistance in fragile settings where conventional approaches may be impractical or insecure. This brief draws on evidence from Sudan to assess the feasibility and demand for digital transfers in humanitarian response. It explores emerging practices and offers insights for policymakers, donors, and implementing agencies aiming to adapt assistance modalities to meet the challenges of protracted crises.

Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Kenya

Kenya’s agrifood systems are broad and diverse, including both staple food crops and high-value exports which are essential to the economic and social advancement of the nation. The agricultural sector em ploys more than 40 percent of Kenya’s workforce, including more than 70 percent of rural residents, and accounts for about 33 percent of the country’s GDP (FAO, 2023a; FAO, n.d.). The growth of Kenya’s agrifood system is largely driven by domestic market demand rather than exports, a trend driven by rapid urbanization and rising income opportunities in the rural nonfarm sector, which are leading to shifts in dietary preferences and are expected to further influence ongoing structural transformation (Diao et al., 2023). Kenya’s agricultural sector is characterized by several value chains that significantly support economic output, job creation, and trade. Tea is Kenya’s most significant agricultural export, contributing about 2 percent to the overall GDP and 4 percent to GDP in agriculture. Managed predominantly by the Kenya Tea Development Agency (KTDA), which oversees over 60 percent of national tea production, the sector supports approximately 6.5 million people (Tea Board of Kenya, 2024). Tea also contributes around 21 percent of Kenya’s export earnings, which makes it the third-largest source of foreign exchange earnings in the nation after diaspora remittances and tourism (Kilimo News, 2024).

Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Ethiopia

Agriculture is of paramount importance to Ethiopia’s economy. Agriculture accounts for 40 percent of the country’s GDP, 80 percent of export earnings, and employs 75 percent of the population (Tamene & Ali, 2022). Crop and livestock production account for roughly 65 percent and 25 percent of agricultural GDP, respectively (International Trade Administration, 2024). Cereals account for roughly 90 percent of total grain production. Teff, known for its gluten-free nutritional aspect, takes the leading share of cereals by production area (ESS 2022). Ethiopia is also the second-largest wheat producer in Africa, following South Africa, with an expansion potential of 1.3 million hectares (Senbeta & Worku, 2023). Coffee, a crop with high cultural and economic importance in Ethiopia, accounts for 30 percent of exports and 25 percent of total employment. Ethiopia stands as Africa’s leading coffee producer and among the top five coffee producing nations worldwide (Tefera & Torry, 2023). Within Ethiopia’s overall agri-food system, most agricultural value chain activity fits the traditional definition, where subsistence farming dominates, postharvest value addition is minimal, and grain production constitutes the largest share (Barrett et al., 2022). However, some commodities in Ethiopia are progressing from traditional to transitional and modern value chains. The dairy value chain can be considered transitional, as it is characterized by a growing processing and logistics sector and emerging pre-urban supply chains (which disfavor remote regions with high production potential as they need more advanced logistics). The coffee value chain in Ethiopia can be considered as a modern value chain – i.e., characterized by product standardization and quality control aimed at the global market/export (Ambler et al., 2023; Barrett et al., 2022).

Do cash transfer programmes affect child anaemia? Results From a meta-analysis

Childhood anaemia is common and debilitating. Nutrition-specific policies are effective for addressing anaemia in many contexts but less is known about nutrition-sensitive policies such as cash transfers. We reviewed over 4000 studies and gathered 26 estimates of the effect of cash transfer programmes on childhood haemoglobin and anaemia. Overall, neither the impact of cash on haemoglobin (0.065 d/L, CI [−0.054, 0.184]) nor on anaemia prevalence (−0.092, CI [−1.227, 1.042]) were significant. While cash on its own had basically a null effect, programmes that provided cash in combination with other interventions such as behaviour change communication or nutritional supplements were more successful. The impact of social protection on haemoglobin and anaemia is surprisingly understudied compared to height, on which a previous study found well over 100 impacts of cash transfer programmes. Overall impacts of cash transfer programmes on haemoglobin and anaemia are weak: evidence is inconclusive at best. Cash transfer programmes are more successful in combination with other programmes providing education and/or nutritional supplements.

Accuracy of using weight and length in children under 24 months to screen for early childhood obesity: A systematic review

The global increase in early childhood overweight and obesity has prompted interest in early prediction of overweight and obesity to allow timely intervention and prevent lifelong consequences. A systematic review was conducted to assess the accuracy and feasibility of predicting overweight and obesity in individual three to seven-year-old children using data available in healthcare and community settings on children under 24 months of age. This review was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42024509603) and followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. From 7,943 unique articles identified through PubMed, CINAHL, Scopus, and Google Scholar, 14 studies met the inclusion criteria, 13 from high-income countries and one from a middle-income country. These studies evaluated the accuracy of predicting childhood overweight or obesity in individual children using anthropometrics-alone or multiple-predictor models. Anthropometrics-alone models yielded areas under the curve (AUCs) ≥0.56 with expert guidance and ≥0.77 with machine learning. Multiple-predictor models yielded AUC ≥0.68 with expert guidance and ≥0.76 with machine learning. The inclusion of child, parental, and community predictors improved predictive accuracy but led to greater variation in performance across models. Models were more accurate when children were older at the initial assessment, multiple assessments were made, and the time between assessment and outcome prediction was shorter. Prediction models with an AUC ≥0.70 used machine learning to optimize variable selection, limiting their practicality for broad-scale implementation in healthcare or community settings. There is insufficient evidence on the accuracy of overweight and obesity prediction models for children in low- and middle-income countries. Existing prediction models are not well-suited for broad-scale screening of individual children for risk of early childhood overweight or obesity.

A comparison of the effects of local and EAT-Lancet dietary recommendations on selected economic and environmental outcomes in India

The global discourse is nearly unanimous that dietary transitions are crucial to achieve sustainability goals. In this context, healthy dietary recommendations offer demand-side solutions towards minimizing environmental impacts from food production. However, these guidelines have also faced some criticism for their blanket approach and limited consideration of regional preferences. Using a validated food-economy-environment integrated modelling framework, we compare between two types of healthy diets − the globally recommended EAT-Lancet diets and Indian government’s National Institute of Nutrition (NIN) local diets − by examining their impacts on agricultural production, agricultural commodity prices, food expenditures, trade impacts, Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and water withdrawals. Our results suggest that the adoption of regional recommendations (NIN diets) lead to better outcomes for select economic and environmental indicators. When India shifts to NIN diet, its domestic demand for cereal crops decreases, leading to a 36 % reduction in cereal crop production by 2050 and change in demand for sugars and animal-sourced foods (ASFs). This has the potential to reduce commodity prices of food by upto 24 % by 2050. A shift to the NIN diet in India reduces methane (CH4) emissions by 36 % and N2O by 35 % compared to business-as-usual, performing better than the EAT-Lancet diet, which reduces CH4 emissions by 13 %. Water withdrawals reduce almost by the same value under both the dietary scenarios primarily due to lesser dependence on cereal crops and livestock products. These findings remain consistent in our sensitivity analysis, with varying global trade scenarios, offering greater benefits of food systems transformation through liberal trade policies. Our analysis underscores the pivotal role of regional inclusivity in global assessments, enhancing our comprehension of how food systems can be reimagined to align with both food security and environmental sustainability.

Integrating agriculture policies with climate change strategies and commitments in Nepal

The world continues to grapple with acute hunger, malnutrition, poverty, income inequality, and other crises. In 2023, approximately 864 million people experienced severe food insecurity (FAO et al. 2024). On the one hand, poor policy adoption disrupts market and supply chain vulnerabilities, exacerbates food insecurity, and causes economic instability and crises (Hélène and Cohen 2020). On the other hand, disasters and extreme weather conditions significantly damage available infrastructure, transportation networks, and storage facilities, disrupting the distribution of agricultural commodities and as well as regular food patterns (Hasegawa et al. 2021). The COP28 UAE Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Action recognizes that agriculture and food systems must urgently adapt and transform to meet the challenges of climate change. It commits to integrating agriculture and food systems into climate action while simultaneously mainstreaming climate action across policy agendas and actions related to agriculture and food systems (UNFCCC 2023).

Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Tanzania

Agriculture is vital to Tanzania’s economic framework, significantly contributing to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). According to the ministerial report on the agriculture sector, the agriculture sector contributed 26.3 percent to national GDP in 2024, an increase from 26.2 percent in the previous year (MOA, 2025). It employed an average of 61.4 percent of the population, a slight decrease from 65.6 percent in 2023. Furthermore, agriculture provides 65 percent of essential raw materials for industries (MOA, 2024). Specifically, crop production recorded a growth rate of 4.2 percent in 2023, up from 2.7 percent in 2022, contributing 16.1 percent to national GDP, an increase from 15 percent in 2022 (MOA, 2024). Agriculture continues to play a critical role in ensuring food security, meeting 128 percent of domestic food demand in 2024 (MOA, 2025). Exports of agricultural products also saw substantial growth, reaching approximately USD 3.54 billion in 2023/2024, a significant increase from about USD 1.2 billion in 2019/2020 (MOA, 2025). Tanzania’s agricultural transformation increasingly relies on modernizing agri-food value chains, especially those linking rural producers to growing urban and export markets, which are seeing a widening price gap. Value addition is essential for improving agricultural productivity and can take multiple forms. Hidayati et al. (2023) categorize value addition based on quality, safety, and market orientation, while emphasizing the importance of social factors such as job creation and food safety, alongside economic aspects such as sales, profitability, and environmental impacts. In agriculture, value addition involves transforming raw materials into finished products and by-products through processes such as drying, processing, packaging, and distribution. These activities enhance the market value of agricultural products, bolster economic growth through job creation, and contribute to food security. Consequently, maximizing value addition is crucial to fully leveraging the potential of Tanzania’s agricultural sector and translating it into measurable economic growth.

Contributions of District Health Information Software 2 (DHIS2) to maternal and child health service performance in Ethiopia: An interrupted time series mixed-methods study

Background The District Health Information Software 2 (DHIS2) is the primary digital platform for health management information systems (HMIS) in Ethiopia, aligning with the nation’s digitization strategy. Despite widespread implementation, its effectiveness on key health service indicators, particularly maternal and child health (MCH) services, remain unclear. Objective This study aimed to evaluate the contribution of DHIS2 on data use and the performance of selected MCH indicators in Ethiopia, comparing data before and after the implementation of DHIS2. Methods We analysed data from primary health care units (PHUs) across five diverse regions of Ethiopia, encompassing urban, agrarian, and pastoralist settings. A mixed-methods approach was employed, combining quantitative and qualitative methods to provide a comprehensive understanding of the data. The quantitative component involved examining performance reports of selected maternal and child health (MCH) indicators from 2013 to 2022 to assess changes before and after the implementation of the District Health Information System 2 (DHIS2). Data were collected electronically and analysed using descriptive statistics and interrupted time series (ITS) analyses to identify trends and patterns. The qualitative component included interviews and focus group discussions with health workers and stakeholders to explore contextual factors influencing MCH service utilization and performance. The data were analysed thematically using OpenCode 4.1 software. Results The implementation of DHIS2 significantly contributed to the enhancement of MCH data utilization within PHU facilities. This improvement supported decision-making processes in various aspects of maternal and child healthcare delivery, including target setting, resource allocation, program monitoring, and clinical service provision. Specifically, DHIS2 led to increased monthly mean performance of key indicators such as antenatal care visits, skilled birth attendance, and immunization rates. Notable improvements in service delivery were observed, with significant increases in institutional delivery rates over time. Conclusions The study highlights DHIS2’s significant contribution to improving MCH services in Ethiopia, with increased institutional delivery rates and ANC coverage reflecting enhanced data-driven decision-making. Most facilities relied on DHIS2 for resource allocation and program monitoring, though challenges like offline usage and accessibility persist. To maximize impact, improving offline data management, training staff, leveraging real-time reporting, and addressing accessibility through connectivity investments are recommended.

To defer or to differ: Experimental evidence on the role of cash transfers in Nigerian couples’ decision–making

Lessons Learned from Implementing the CAADP Biennial Review Process Under the Malabo Declaration

The Biennial Review (BR), launched under the 2014 Malabo Declaration, serves as the African Union’s (AU) primary mutual accountability tool for tracking Member States’ progress in implementing the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP). This brief, drawing lessons from four BR cycles, aims to inform the next phase of BRs in preparation for the domestication and implementation of the 2025 Kampala CAADP Declaration. While the BR has prompted policy and programmatic changes in several countries, its full impact is hindered by persistent challenges such as underfunding, weak monitoring and evaluation (M&E) capacities, and data quality issues. Despite these hurdles, innovations like the eBR and national data clusters have led to improvements in data quality and reporting rates. Still further improvements in data systems, capacities, and stakeholder engagement are urgently needed to strengthen the Biennial Review (BR) process. Key recommendations include adopting coherent data governance policies, promoting BR awareness and data utilization, refining the BR scorecard methodology, expanding data clusters to more countries, strengthening M&E capacities, ensuring inclusive BR validation, and integrating the BR database with M&E systems at both national and regional levels. Sustained political leadership, technical support, and domestic funding are critical to institutionalizing a robust, timely, high-quality, and impactful BR process that supports evidence-based decision-making and accelerates progress toward achieving the CAADP agrifood system transformation goals under the Kampala Declaration.

Outcomes and impacts of CGIAR Research Initiatives in Kenya from 2022 to 2024

Kenya hosted one of CGIAR’s largest portfolios of research and innovation from 2022 to 2024, when pooled funding for the CGIAR was distributed through CGIAR research initiatives. This paper synthesizes CGIAR’s contributions to Kenyan agriculture in that period by triangulating two evidence streams: 148 outcomes logged in the CGIAR Performance and Results Management System (PRMS) and 56 impact assessments published as peer-reviewed journal articles. The analysis shows that CGIAR’s work has catalyzed improvements in seed systems, facilitated refinements in agronomic techniques, and encouraged the adoption of climate-resilient, sustainable farming practices and technologies. These contributions have paved the way for increasing crop productivity, while also supporting key livestock innovations that enhance food safety and bolster the resilience of pastoral communities. Robust local partnerships underpinned several policy shifts and helped align many outputs with the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA). Yet, important gaps persist. Activities are mainly concentrated in easily reached areas rather than being spread across all agro-ecological zones, and outcomes are recorded in an isolated way, obscuring how separate successes add up to systemic change. Peer-reviewed impact evaluations focused on a different set of impact areas than outcomes reported in PRMS, rarely involve cross-center collaborations, and PRMS entries seldom document how evidence, policy uptake, and multidisciplinary collaboration link together. Looking ahead to the next CGIAR Science Programs phase, the paper urges broader engagement with under-served value chains, deeper cross-program synergies, and closer alignment with Kenya’s BETA and MTP IV priorities to foster inclusive, resilient agricultural growth.

Declining purchasing power of minimum wages in Papua New Guinea: Analysis of economic access to healthy diets

Key Messages To address rising living costs which reduce the purchasing power of the minimum wage, the Government of PNG recently launched a review of the country’s minimum wage. The minimum wage has been PGK 3.50 per hour or PGK 28 per 8-hour day since July 2016. At the beginning of 2025, the minimum wage could purchase about three-quarters as much food and other goods and services compared to July 2016. The cost of a healthy diet per adult per day in urban areas increased by 35 percent from PGK 7.70 in 2021 to PGK 10.37 in 2025. The cost of the healthy diet was the most expensive in Port Moresby—PGK 11.15 per adult per day in 2025 and increased the most in Kokopo (54 percent) from PGK 5.81 to PGK 8.92 between 2021 and 2025. One and a half full-time urban minimum wage earners earn just enough to feed a healthy diet to a family of five in 2025, with no money remaining for essential non-food expenses such as clothing, shelter, transportation, health, and education. The government recently published a public notice of Goods and Services Tax (GST) zero-rating of essential goods effective 1st June 2025 to 30th June 2026. We re-evaluate the purchasing power of a minimum wage by decreasing the price of tinned tuna and rice by 10% (reflective of the GST zero-rating) on Q1 2025 recorded prices. Assuming prices remain constant (with no shifts in demand due to decreased tax), the cost of the average urban healthy diet in the first quarter of 2025 is 4.7 percent lower without the GST (PGK 9.87) compared to the cost of a healthy diet with the GST (PGK 10.35) — slightly improving the purchasing power of minimum wage earners.

Preservation of the IFPRI record: Moving 50 Years of research

As the International Food Policy Research Institute approaches a half-century of agricultural research, the Communications Unit has taken the opportunity to review the legacy of both our organization and our researchers. As part of this effort, the Knowledge Management team spent a year migrating over 25,000 metadata records, including about 13,000 with a PDF file attached, from an Institutional Repository (CONTENTdm) to a shared Consortial Repository (CGSpace based on DSpace). In the process, we have improved the metadata and worked to conform our records with the different standards of the shared environment and ensure continued discoverability and usability. We were also able to identify key gaps in our open access holdings and added PDF files were possible. We continue to validate the metadata and holdings, including additions of chapter records that were previously missing. Our project has led to a greater role for our team on the shared platform and we have trained other CGIAR centers on how to successfully migrate their collections.

Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey Round Five: Note on Sample Characteristics and Weighting

The Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey (MAPS) is a nationally and sub-nationally representative phone survey with the objective of collecting bi-annual data on agricultural indicators including crop production and sales, input use, crop marketing, farm and livestock assets, and farm services. The Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) is a nationally and sub-nationally representative phone survey with the objective of collecting bi-annual data on household and individual welfare indicators, including poverty, food security, dietary quality, subjective wellbeing, and coping strategies. MAPS is a sub-sample survey that includes farming households from MHWS. There are five Rounds of MAPS. MAPS Rounds 1, 3, and 5 were conducted between January and March 2022 and 2024 and collect recall data on monsoon production. MAPS Round 2 and 4 were conducted between June and September 2022 and 2023 and collect recall data on dry season production (pre/post monsoon season). MAPS Round 5 consists of 11 modules (A-K) that are each included in the clean dataset and unique by household ID (hhid). Modules A, B, and J are introductory and closing modules that only include information on the call and confirmation of demographic information connected to MHWS. The remaining modules provide data on farmer demographics and agricultural production and marketing. Module C consists of background and demographic information. This includes data on farmer demographics along with farm area and crops grown. Module D provides data on rice production and sales for monsoon 2022 and 2023, including rice variety, amounts produced and sold, and farmgate prices. Module E contains similar information to Module D but pertaining to pulses and oilseeds. Module F consists of data on farm input use including purchased inputs, mechanization, labor, and the effect of natural shocks. Module G presents information on crop marketing and Module H provides data on farm and livestock assets. Module I contains data on farm services including agricultural extension, credit, mobility issues in the community, travel times to access services, contract farming, crop residues, and changes in rice consumption and paddy growing practices. Module K contains information on changes in rice consumption and paddy growing practices.

Political violence in the G5 Sahel countries — Conflict diffusion indicator: Methodology and implementation

The Conflict Diffusion Indicator, as defined by ACLED, measures the proportion of a country’s geographic area experiencing high levels of violence. This indicator assesses the geographic spread of conflict across administrative level 2 (adm2) regions, using a 10km-by-10km spatial grid. This document outlines the methodology and implementation steps for computing the indicator for the Sahel region (2018 data) using Google Earth Engine (GEE).

Landscape complexity as determined by socioeconomic trends, climate change, and broad agricultural policies: A study on multifunctional landscapes

Food systems face dire challenges, including climate change, biodiversity loss, and resource overuse. To ensure their long-term sustainability and resilience they need urgent transformation, while continuing to support livelihoods and address rising food insecurity. The design and management of multifunctional agricultural landscapes offer a pathway to address these challenges; and improved understanding of landscape complexity, including a diverse mix of natural and cropland covers, can help advance achievement of multiple food system goals. As land managers and decision makers plan for the future of our landscapes, they need to recognize that powerful forces outside their control will have a strong influence on the final outcome. This study explores the interplay between global drivers—such as population growth, economic trends, climate change—and landscape complexity, using a modeling system linking a global agricultural economic model to a land-use model. Global trends are described, and Kenya serves as a case study, representing broader local dynamics. Results indicate that the majority of agricultural landscapes, globally and in Kenya, are projected to experience increased complexity by 2050, primarily through cropland expansion at the expense of natural habitats. However, there are a few instances where an expansion in cropland may be liked to a decrease in landscape complexity. Patterns also vary under alternative scenarios of agricultural development. Where greater complexity is achieved through policies that further concentrate agricultural land in some areas, this is mainly associated with net gains in natural habitats and a contraction of cropland. Overall, this preliminary research underscores the need for integrated landscape management and more comprehensive scenarios to inform sustainable land-use planning aligned with global food security and environmental objectives.

The state of food security and nutrition in Myanmar, 2021-2024: Findings from eight rounds of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey

This working paper explores the state of food security and nutrition in Myanmar using eight rounds of nationally representative household panel data collected from December 2021 to December 2024. Overall, the state of food security and nutrition has deteriorated in Myanmar from 2021-2024. More than three percent of households were in moderate to severe hunger in September-December 2024. Hunger was highest in Kachin (6.5 percent), followed by Kayah (6.3 percent) and Chin (6.0 percent) in the latest survey round. Households with a low Food Consumption Score increased from 9.4 percent in December 2021-February 2022 to 14.2 percent in August-November 2023 and remained high at 14.2 percent in October-December 2024. The shares in October-December 2024 were highest in Chin (34.6 percent), Kayah (25.4 percent), and Shan (19.3 percent). Inadequate diet diversity among adults rose from 20.5 percent to 26.0 percent between December 2021-February 2022 to October-December 2024. Women saw a faster decline in diet quality (7.3 percentage points increase in poor diet quality compared to 3.2 percentage points for men). Decreases in diet quality among adults were driven by lower consumption of animal sourced food and vegetables. In the latest round of the survey, 30.7 percent of all children aged 6-23 months and 21.3 percent of all children aged 6-59 months had inadequate diet quality. Of note during October-December 2024, urban households faced greater food insecurity than rural households, with higher hunger rates (3.5 percent vs. 2.8 percent), and lower dietary diversity among both adults (26.0 percent vs. 25.0 percent) and children aged 6–59 months (23.2 percent vs. 20.4 percent). Regression analysis reveals low income and limited assets to be important risk factors for food security and adequate diet quality. Wage workers and low wage communities were particularly vulnerable. Rising food prices, conflict and physical insecurity increase the likelihood of poor diet quality. Receiving remittances was a source of resilience; remittance-receiving households were less likely to experience hunger or poor dietary diversity at the household, adult, and child level. To avert a full-blown nutrition crisis in Myanmar, effective multisectoral steps are required to protect nutritionally vulnerable populations. Expanded implementation of nutrition- and gendersensitive social protection programs, including maternal and child cash transfers, particularly to vulnerable groups is called for. Further, given the importance of remittances as an effective coping mechanism, supporting migration and the flow of remittances would help to improve the welfare of the Myanmar population.

Global rice price declines and expected effects on monsoon paddy farming: Insights from key informants

This brief draws on interviews with 51 agro-input retailers across 10 states and regions to assess how falling international rice prices may affect monsoon paddy cultivation in their communities. Key Findings: In May 2025, international rice prices (in real terms) reached their lowest level in the past 15 years, one-third lower than in May 2024. Myanmar’s dual exchange rate system has further depressed local rice prices. In addition to low export prices, rising marketing and processing costs—driven by persistent electricity shortages and transportation challenges—have widened the gap between farmgate prices and end-market prices (both domestic and export). According to informants, fertilizer (urea) prices rose 12 percent, while paddy prices fell by an average of 21 percent (median decline: 29 percent) in May 2025 compared to a year earlier. In response to weaker price incentives, respondents expect monsoon paddy area to decline by 11 percent and fertilizer use to drop by 18 percent compared to the 2024 monsoon season. Expected declines in paddy prices, cultivated areas, and yields are likely to reduce production, lower farm incomes, and increase rural poverty in 2025 – especially concerning given farmers’ relative resilience in recent years. Recommended Actions: To ensure adequate incentives for paddy farmers, the dual exchange rate system should be revised to give exporters—and, by extension, farmers—fairer and more predictable returns. Barriers to efficient domestic trade and processing—such as roadblocks, restrictive regulations, poor transportation infrastructure, and limited access to fuel and electricity—should be addressed to narrow the growing gap between producer and consumer prices.

Modeling the economywide effects of water and energy interventions in the face of climate shocks in Ethiopia

The Ethiopian economy relies heavily on rainfed agriculture for income generation, export earnings, and rural livelihoods. However, projections from climate scenarios predict high frequency and intense extreme agro-climatic events, posing significant and growing risks to Ethiopia’s agri-food system and overall economy. This study evaluates the economic impacts of recurrent climate shocks on Ethiopia through 2040 and assesses the contribution of alternative investment options in lessening some of these impacts. Findings reveal that recurrent climate shocks could reduce Ethiopia’s cumulative GDP by up to 17 percent (or approximately US$ 534.3 billion) by 2040 compared to a “no climate change” baseline. These economic losses are predominantly concentrated in the agricultural sector, disproportionately affecting rural households and poorer urban populations. Strategic investments in irrigation infrastructure and hydroelectricity generation emerge as effective measures to mitigate some of the adverse effects of recurrent climate variability, underscoring the importance of proactive and targeted climate adaptation strategies for Ethiopia’s economic resilience. Results further indicate that significantly mitigating the socio-economic impacts of climate and weather shocks requires scaling up investments and diversifying adaptation strategies. The insights derived from this analysis can be informative to economies with similar structures.

Economic and social outcomes of investment on infrastructure and early warning system in Tajikistan’s agrifood system

Irrigation and timely access to sufficient volumes of water are vital to increase crops productivity, rural incomes, and food security (FAO 2023; World Bank 2021). In Tajikistan, irrigation sector faces several challenges and constraints such as: aged, poorly maintained infrastructure and poor management system that led low-quality irrigation services; limited investment in drainage infrastructure, inadequate maintenance, poor water management, and harmful irrigation practices that led salinization and waterlogging in some irrigated areas. In addition, the ongoing process of climate change and rising temperatures will increase crop water demands, while water supply reliability will decline, leading to more-severe, more-frequent water stress. The minimum required operation and maintenance on irrigation infrastructure estimated to be about US$35 million per year. Around 85 percent of cultivated land is irrigated and provides more than 90 percent of the total value of crop production. Since independence, the condition and performance of irrigation infrastructure has declined because of severe underfinancing. More than 40 percent of irrigated areas depend on pumping (the highest dependency in Central Asia), and many high-lift, high-volume pumping stations are in poor condition. Pumping is inefficient (~0.28 kWh/m3, which accounts for 20 percent of total national electricity use). The economic productivity of irrigation is among the lowest 5 percent of countries in the world (~0.21 USD/m) because of high water loss, predominance of low-value crops, and low yields. Irrigation is heavily subsidized but still underfunded. Between 2016 and 2019, the share of public agriculture expenditure on irrigation infrastructure was high (44.6 percent or 880.3 million Tajik Somoni). Irrigation is financed through direct transfers for electricity, government subsidies for pumping station staff costs, revenue from irrigation service fees, WUA membership fees (for on-farm operations and maintenance), and donor investments. More than 60 percent of irrigation capital expenditures (including flood protection) is donor financed (Khakimov et al. 2024; World Bank. SWIM Project 2022).

Economic and social outcomes of investment on market and food systems in Tajikistan

Findings of World Bank study (WB, SRAS Project 2021) indicates that lack of sufficient quantity and quality of seeds, seedlings, and planting materials in domestic market is one of the critical issues affecting farmers income and food security. Most donor projects provide direct extension support to farmers on multiplying and adopting seeds and seedlings. The local capacity to generate new varieties and planting materials remains low and over 50 percent of all agricultural inputs are imported. The capacity to test new varieties of crops for their adaptation to soils and climate in the country is also lacking, and in general the regular testing of new varieties, whether domestically developed or imported, is not conducted. Between 2016-2019, the share of public agriculture expenditure on inputs distribution to the farmers (0.04 percent or 0.81 million Tajik Somoni) and development of seeds and seedlings (0.8 percent or 16.64 million Tajik Somoni) were low (Khakimov et al. 2024).

Economic and social outcomes of investment on extension and advisory services in Tajikistan’s agrifood system

Findings of recent study shows that in 2021, roughly 5 percent of farms and nearly 14 percent of arable land used professional extension services. Extension service actors in Tajikistan include Ministry of Agriculture, Tajik Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Tajik Agrarian University, government extension specialists at the village level, the private sector, and NGOs, with a total staff of about 2,250 people, of whom about 600 are trained to provide professional extension services (Muminov 2021). The government’s fiscal space is limited the extent of support to such investments. Thus, there is a notable underinvestment in extension and advisory services (EAS), 2.4 percent of total public expenditure in agriculture sector between 2016-2019 (World Bank 2021). In this brief, for evaluating the potential impact of investment on extension and advisory services to accelerate agricultural transformation and inclusiveness in Tajikistan AFS, we rely on the IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) economywide dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model which incorporates household survey-based microsimulation and investment modules, and simulates the functioning of a market economy, comprising markets for products and factors which include land, labor, and capital (IFPRI 2023).

Economic and social outcomes of investment on research and development in Tajikistan’s agrifood system

The World Bank’s agriculture sector public expenditure review study (World Bank 2021) findings indicates that public expenditure on agriculture sector remains relatively small at less than one percent of GDP, though grew significantly between 2015 and 2020, and the sector relies heavily on donor financing (54 percent). There is a notable underinvestment in R&D, 0.7 percent of total public expenditure in agriculture sector between 2016-2019, which impacts productivity and climate resilience. In this brief, for evaluating the potential impact of investment on Research and Development (R&D) to accelerate agricultural transformation and inclusiveness in Tajikistan agrifood system (AFS), we rely on the IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) economywide dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model which incorporates household survey-based microsimulation and investment modules, and simulates the functioning of a market economy, comprising markets for products and factors which include land, labor, and capital (IFPRI 2023).

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: May 2025

This report presents an overview of trends in prices, availability, and quality of key commodities in Sudan from February to May 2025. It covers cereals, vegetables, animal products, and other essential commodities such as cooking oil, sugar, agricultural inputs (fertilizers and seeds), fuels, and exchange rates. The analysis reveals notable spatial and temporal disparities in prices, availability, and quality across Sudan’s 18 states.

Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – May 2025

The rapidly evolving agricultural and food security situation in Myanmar requires a high frequency, systematic, and comprehensive approach to monitoring. The Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report synthesizes food price trends using publicly available datasets, focusing on key agricultural crops and highlighting regional differences in rice prices. By analyzing these trends, the report aims to provide insights into the broader agricultural market and the factors driving food price fluctuations in Myanmar.

LC-MS/MS analysis of vitamin A and provitamin A carotenoids in human plasma

Sudan: Cereal markets and trade

Cereal production and markets, key components of Sudan’s food economy, have changed dramatically in the last decade due to conflict-related disruptions, as well as earlier changes in government policy. In western Sudan, particularly Darfur and surrounding regions, ongoing conflict has severely hindered agricultural activities, leading to a sharp decline in domestic cereal production. In contrast, other regions of Sudan have maintained relatively stable planting and harvesting activities, although marketing costs have risen substantially.

Nature+ Quantitative Monitoring Household Survey, Colombia

The NATURE+ survey conducted in Colombia integrated household and community-level questionnaires to develop a comprehensive understanding of the socio-economic, agricultural, and environmental dynamics influencing potential beneficiaries of NATURE+ interventions. The study focused on two key departments: Nariño and Putumayo. At the household level, the survey collected detailed socio-economic and demographic data, including household composition, education levels, land ownership, income sources, self-employment activities, and asset ownership. This information provides crucial insights into the economic conditions of the surveyed population. The survey also documented agricultural practices on farms and in chagras—traditional agroforestry systems maintained by Indigenous communities. Specific attention was given to crop and livestock production, crop biodiversity, and the use of fertilizers and pesticides. The survey further investigated the adoption of nature-positive solutions, including agroforestry practices, environmental management (such as waste handling and renewable energy use), and awareness of biodiversity benefits. Issues related to food security and dietary diversity were also addressed. At the community level, the questionnaire aimed to capture broader socio-economic, environmental, and institutional factors across selected communities in Cumbal (Nariño) and multiple municipalities in Putumayo. It gathered demographic estimates—such as population size, gender and age composition, and number of households—to construct a socio-economic profile of each community. The survey assessed the prevalence and benefits of nature-positive practices, such as biodiversity conservation, agroforestry, and sustainable land management. It also evaluated the role of external actors, including NGOs and extension agencies, in promoting these practices. Additional components covered community infrastructure, natural resource governance, and ongoing sustainability initiatives.

Brewing prosperity: An analysis of living income gaps among coffee smallholders in central Kenya

This study investigates the living income gap among coffee smallholders in central Kenya. It uses detailed survey data collected from coffee farmers organized in cooperatives and from coffee farm workers in Nyeri and Murang’a counties. Our analysis finds that coffee smallholders earn an average of only 109 KSh per day, just 35 percent of the 312 KSh living income benchmark, with the gap being particularly severe in Murang’a and among those with smaller landholdings. Sensitivity analyses show that enhancing prices paid to farmers and improving yields can partially reduce the income shortfall. For instance, doubling both parameters, especially when coupled with a 50 percent increase in farmers’ non-coffee income, lowers the incidence of households below the benchmark from more than 90 percent to about 67 percent. Yet, even under these relatively optimal conditions, the persistence of a significant gap underscores deep structural constraints in the local economy. Policy recommendations therefore call for a multidimensional approach that improves production efficiency, improves and stabilizes prices, promotes income diversification, and strengthens institutional support.

Prospects for cereal self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the world’s largest projected increase in demand for food. Increased dependence on imports makes SSA vulnerable to geopolitical and economic risks, while further expansion of agricultural land is environmentally harmful. Cereals, in particular, maize, millet, rice, sorghum, and wheat, take nearly 50% of the cropland and 43% of the calories and proteins consumed in the region. Demand is projected to double until 2050. Here, we assess recent developments in cereal self-sufficiency and provide outlooks until 2050 under different intensification, area expansion, and climate change scenarios. We use detailed data for ten countries. Cereal self-sufficiency increased between 2010 and 2020 from 84 to 92% despite the 29% population increase. The production increase was achieved by increased yields per hectare (44%), area expansion (34%), and a shift from millet to the higher yielding maize (22%). Outlooks for 2050 are less pessimistic than earlier assessments because of the larger 2020 baseline area, higher shares of maize and somewhat less steep projected population increase. Yet, to halt further area expansion, a drastic trend change in annual yield increase from the present 20 to 58 kg ha−1 y−1 is needed to achieve cereal self-sufficiency. While such yield increases have been achieved elsewhere and are feasible given the yield potentials in SSA, they require structural changes and substantial agronomic, socioeconomic, and political investments. We estimate that amounts of added nitrogen need to at least triple to achieve such yield improvements, but it is essential that this comes with improved context-specific agronomy.

Community and household shocks and coping strategies: Findings from the eighth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (July – December 2024)

The eighth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationally and regionally representative phone survey, was conducted between October and December 2024. This round follows seven previous rounds carried out since December 2021 and reflects conditions during July – December 2024. This report presents updated insights on the conflict, climatic, service, and economic shocks households faced, as well as the coping mechanisms they employ in response. Security conditions were difficult throughout the recall period. Seventeen percent of households reported feeling insecure in their communities, while 19 percent reported low levels of trust. Crime and violence affected 17 percent and 8 percent of communities, respectively. Insecurity remained highest in Kayah, Chin, and Kachin, while Rakhine became more insecure and isolated. Lawlessness was also widespread: 17 percent of households reported gambling and 14 percent reported drug use in their communities, especially in urban areas. Thirty-five percent of households express concerns over conscription, particularly in urban centers like Yangon and Nay Pyi Taw, as well as states like Shan and Rakhine. Additionally, 13 percent of respondents reported feeling unsafe while moving around and carrying out everyday tasks in their communities, and 3 percent reported risks of kidnapping. Climatic shocks further compounded hardship. Nineteen percent of farming households experienced climatic shocks, with severe flooding reported by 45 percent of households in Kayin, 35 percent in Kayah, and 36 percent in Rakhine. Intense winds affected 14 percent of households in Chin. These events, like conflict, have contributed to the destruction of homes, infrastructure, and services, further deepening vulnerability. Service disruptions further undermine wellbeing. Among households connected to the national power grid, 78 percent experienced daily power cuts lasting at least one hour. In urban Rakhine, households face up to 16 hours of outages daily. Internet access was limited for 55 percent of households, with near-total internet blackouts in Rakhine and Kachin, and over 30 percent without access in Sagaing and Kayah. Although school enrollment and access to medical services rose modestly, it remained low in conflict-affected areas, especially in Rakhine. Economic pressures continue to mount. Food inflation reached 39 percent between September and December 2024. Prices rose sharply for leafy greens, potatoes, and chicken. Although rice prices also increased, their contribution to overall food inflation was the lowest since 2022, at 19 percent. Petrol prices rose by 7 percent in the quarter and 54 percent year-on-year. Non-food essentials such as soap (25 percent increase), paracetamol (26 percent), and toothpaste (128 percent) also saw steep price increases. Households have resorted to increasingly desperate measures to cope. By late 2024, only 20 percent of households had any cash savings or bank deposits – just 7 percent in Kayah. Migration remains a key strategy, with about 10 percent of households reporting a migrant in Q4 2024. Borrowing played a central role: 64 percent of loans came from informal sources like friends and relatives, and were largely used to cover food, health, and daily expenses. Amid these challenges, 52 percent of households reported giving to social services and one in four provided direct assistance to vulnerable neighbors or local food initiatives. However, if shocks continue to intensify, households’ ability to cope may further erode, leaving many without the resources needed to meet even basic needs.

Cost effective options for inclusive agrifood system development in Tajikistan

This paper presents a model-based and data-driven analysis of alternative public investment options for Tajikistan’s agrifood system based on cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes. The study indicates that there is no single intervention that is the most cost-effective across all economic and social outcomes, including agrifood GDP growth, job creation, poverty reduction, lowered undernourishment, and improvement in diet quality. Irrigation infrastructure development, R&D in husbandry, and food loss and waste reduction are the most cost-effective investments in the combined economic outcomes, including growth and jobs. In contrast, irrigation, food loss and waste reduction, and seed systems are more effective in the combined social outcomes, including poverty, undernourishment, and diet. Considering time horizons, extension services are more effective in the short run, while irrigation and R&D deliver greater impact over time. Sector variations in the magnitude of effects are also observed among investment interventions. Overall, comparisons across development outcomes, sectoral focus, and timeframes reveal important synergies and trade-offs, underscoring the need for evidence-based tools to guide effective policy and investment decisions.

Ukrainian agriculture at risk as the European Union’s liberalized trade measures expire

The expiration of wartime trade exemptions by the European Commission on Ukrainian food imports could compound challenges for Ukrainian producers, who are now facing their fourth-straight growing season in wartime conditions.

Tanzania: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present research findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Tanzania’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining rates of undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in extension and advisory services on livestock are shown to be the most cost-effective in expanding agrifood GDP and jobs. We also find that targeting SME processors generates stronger impacts on jobs, while extension services in agronomy are particularly cost-effective in fostering growth. Similarly, investing in extension services in agronomy and livestock, along with support to SME processors, yields significant gains in social outcomes, though with varying effects on poverty, hunger, and diet quality. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, highlighting potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options over time and when extreme production shocks occur.

Weather risks and international migration: Panel-data evidence from Tajikistan

Climate change and increased frequency of abnormal weather are becoming growing threats to people’s livelihood, including in Central Asia. These threats are particularly challenging in Tajikistan, the poorest country in the Central Asia region. Despite the fact that migration is prevalent and remittances account for a significant share of GDP, evidence is scarce as to whether the decision to migrate is driven by weather shocks, whether migration is used as mitigating tool against adverse weather shocks, and how much of the loss in welfare is actually mitigated by such migration. This study aims to narrow this knowledge gap by providing evidence based on a unique panel dataset from one of the poorest and agriculturally dependent regions in Tajikistan (Khatlon province), combined with a detailed set of various climate data. In doing so, we apply a novel approach through the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) to identify key weather shock variables among a vast set of potential variables associated with outmigration decisions in different districts. Our results show that different types of weather shocks are associated with outmigration decisions in different districts within the province, ranging from rainfall, temperatures, drought, and windspeed in different subperiods throughout the year. Regardless, more abnormal weather is almost universally associated with more outmigration, and outmigration significantly mitigates the potentially adverse effects on household consumption and food/nutrition security in the origin households. However, more abnormal weather in the origin location is also associated with reduced remittances per month per migrant sent to the origin location. Thus, the capacity of migration to mitigate against weather shocks is still limited. Combined with migration policies that increase net earnings during migration, supplementary support to enhance climate resilience in home locations, such as climate-smart agriculture and development of the non-farm sector, remains critical.

High-frequency monitoring enables machine learning–based forecasting of acute child malnutrition for early warning

The number of acutely food insecure people worldwide has doubled since 2017, increasing demand for early warning systems (EWS) that can predict food emergencies. Advances in computational methods, and the growing availability of near-real time remote sensing data, suggest that big data approaches might help meet this need. But such models have thus far exhibited low predictive skill with respect to subpopulation-level acute malnutrition indicators. We explore whether updating training data with high frequency monitoring of the predictand can help improve machine learning models’ predictive performance with respect to child acute malnutrition by directly learning the dynamic determinants of rapidly evolving acute malnutrition crises. We combine supervised machine learning methods and remotely sensed feature sets with time series child anthropometric data from EWS’ sentinel sites to generate accurate forecasts of acute malnutrition at operationally meaningful time horizons. These advances can enhance intertemporal and geographic targeting of humanitarian response to impending food emergencies that otherwise have unacceptably high case fatality rates.

IFPRI Malawi Monthly Maize Market Report, May 2025

Highlights Retail prices of maize bottomed out in May. Prices rose in southern Malawi despite continued imports. Maize retailed below the government-mandated price in 25 out of 26 monitored markets.

Food Security Simulator – Papua New Guinea

The Food Security Simulator Papua New Guinea (FSS-PNG) is an innovative and easy-to-use, MS-Excel-based tool for assessing the potential short-term impacts of food price or household income shocks, along with changes in preferences, on food security and people’s diets. The Simulator is an ideal tool for first-cut forward-looking evaluations of direct, household-level outcomes of economic crises and policy responses in a timely manner. The tool allows users to enter positive and negative price or income changes in percentage terms and provides simulated changes for a diverse set of food-consumption- and diet-quality-related indicators. In addition to detailed tabular presentations of all simulation results by household income quintile and residential area, key indicator results are summarized in concise overview tables and visualized in graphs for easy export and use in reports. The underlying data include estimates from representative household survey data and rigorous, sophisticated food demand models to capture consumer behavior.

Global Gridded Data on Climate Impact on Yields From DSSAT Crop Model, 2005–2050

This dataset presents percentage changes in agricultural yields due to climate change, comparing the projected yield in 2050 under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and 5 climate models, to the climate of 2005. The dataset includes spatially explicit outputs at a 0.5-degree resolution and covers seven key crops: maize, wheat, rice, soybeans, sorghum, groundnuts (peanuts), and potatoes. The analysis is done separately for growing under rainfed and irrigated conditions and includes separate results computed with and without CO2 fertilization. The yields used in the calculation were generated using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model. The projections are driven by climate inputs from five global climate models (GCMs) included in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 3b (ISIMIP3b), aligned with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). Two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways—SSP370 and SSP585—are used to represent divergent climate and development trajectories. Simulations were conducted both with and without the effects of carbon dioxide (CO₂) fertilization.

Country profile – Ethiopia: Gender, climate change, and nutrition linkages

This brief provides an overview of Ethiopia’s climate risks, gender dynamics, and nutrition challenges and includes discussion of how these issues are intertwined, an overview of the policy landscape, and recommendations for strengthening the integration of gender, climate change and nutrition in the country. With a population of approximately 126.5 million people as of 2023, Ethiopia ranks as the second most populous country in Africa and stands out as one of the region’s fastest-growing economies, with an economic growth rate of almost 10% per year over the last 15 years (World Bank, 2024). Ethiopia’s agrifood system accounted for 48% of Ethiopia’s national GDP and 77.2% of employment in 2019. Pri mary agriculture alone contributed more than 1/3 of GDP and 2/3 of employment, while other parts of the agrifood system such as processing, trade, and input supply contributed 12.8 percent to GDP and 9.4 percent to employment (Diao et al., 2023). The sector is dominated by smallholder farmers who cultivate a diverse array of crops, including cereals, pulses, oilseeds, fruits, and vegetables (Dawid & Mohammed, 2021). Women make up more than 40% of the agriculture labor force and head approximately 25% of all farming households in the country (World Bank, 2019).

An environmentally-extended input-output analysis of province-level carbon emissions from energy use in China’s food system

Potential decarbonization for balancing local and non-local perishable food supply in megacities

Ensuring urban food security while reducing carbon emissions from food systems is a key challenge. Food localization can reduce transport emissions; however, its role in agricultural production emissions reductions is unclear. Here, we explored the effects of localization of seven perishables, incorporating emissions from production and cold-chain logistics, in Beijing and Shanghai, China; determined decarbonization under different scenarios by increasing or decreasing the localization, with or without constrains, of each food category (balancing strategy). The results show that every 1% increase in the localization of vegetables, poultry, and aquatic products decreased 2020 emissions by 0.4–1.9 tCO2e, but for beef and lamb, it increased emissions by 0.2–2.9 tCO2e. Localization decreased cold-chain emission shares for all foods. The balancing strategy with constraints reduced emissions by 0.76 MtCO2e (5%) and 0.44 MtCO2e (2%) in 2020 in Beijing and Shanghai, respectively. Utilizing urban agriculture at all costs (i.e., without constraints) further reduced emissions by a factor of 3–4. Over 90% of Beijing’s emissions added by 2035 under the business-as-usual scenario were projected to be offset by the strategy. In Shanghai, the strategy could reduce emissions by an additional 0.44 MtCO2e. The results indicate that expanding imports of carbon-intensive ruminant meat to replace local production and reallocating urban resources to vegetables, poultry, and aquatic products could lead to more sustainable food supplies in megacities. Further development of cold-chain logistics is expected to reduce emissions in synergy with the balancing strategy. Our results could help inform better food system planning in megacities.

The influence of environmental cues on behavioral response: An assessment of the Protective Action Decision Model in the context of COVID-19

Effect of intermittent preventive treatment during pregnancy with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine on maternal gestational weight gain in low-income and middle-income countries: A systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis of randomised clinical trials

Background Studies have consistently demonstrated beneficial effects of intermittent preventive treatment during pregnancy (IPTp) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) on reducing malaria infection and improving birth outcomes among pregnant women in endemic areas. However, data on its impact on maternal gestational weight gain (GWG) are very limited. We aimed to conduct a two-stage meta-analysis of individual participant data to examine the effect of IPT with SP on GWG compared to other antimalarial regimens. Methods In this systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis, we conducted electronic literature searches of PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library to identify eligible RCTs among pregnant women. We did not apply any language or publication date restrictions in the search. The initial search was conducted on August 4th, 2021, and updated on February 15th, 2025. The study-level inclusion criteria were as follow: 1) the studies must be randomised controlled trials (RCTs), which could be individually randomised, cluster randomised, or a combination of both; 2) study participants were pregnant at enrollment or enrolled before pregnancy and followed up in pregnancy; 3) studies were conducted in a low-income, lower-middle-income, or upper-middle-income economy defined by the World Bank country classification for the 2021 fiscal year; 4) antimalaria and/or antibiotic interventions were provided during pregnancy; and 5) the intervention was provided alone or in combination with a co-intervention that was similar across arms. Since we focused on the intervention’s effect on GWG in generally healthy pregnant women, we applied the following study-level exclusion criteria: 1) studies without any measures of maternal weight during pregnancy; and 2) studies conducted exclusively among women with pre-existing health conditions, such as anemia, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, or diabetes. Within each eligible trial, we further applied individual-level criteria to identify eligible individual participants, including 1) singleton pregnancies, 2) at least one weight measurement in the second or third trimesters, 3) known gestational ages at the time of weight measurements, and 4) availability of maternal height measure. Risk of bias for each trial was assessed using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool, version 2 (RoB 2). GWG percent adequacy (%) and total weight gain (gram) at delivery were calculated according to the Institute of Medicine 2009 guidelines. Linear regression models were used to estimate mean difference (MD) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in GWG percent adequacy and total weight gain across intervention arms. Results from individual trials were pooled using fixed-effects inverse-variance meta-analysis models. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42023428794. Findings A total of 97 trials were identified in the search and sough for IPD, of them eight trials including 8550 pregnant women were included in the current analysis. Women who received IPTp with only 2 doses of SP had a greater GWG percent adequacy (MD: 5.61%; 95% CI: 2.61%, 8.60%; P = 0.0002; I2 = 84.26%), and total GWG in grams at delivery (MD: 702; 95% CI: 321, 1083; P = 0.0003; I2 = 83.78%) than those who received weekly chloroquine as prophylaxis. No significant differences in GWG percent adequacy (MD: −0.53%; 95% CI: −2.89%%, 1.83%; P = 0.66; I2 = 0.00%) or GWG grams (MD: −80; 95% CI: −380, 221; P = 0.60; I2 = 0.00%) were found between IPTp with 2-dose SP and monthly IPTp-SP (3-dose or more). Compared to women who received monthly IPTp-SP, those who received monthly IPTp with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (IPTp-DHA + PPQ) had a lower GWG percent adequacy (MD: −5.56%; 95% CI: −8.22%, −2.90%; P < 0.0001; I2 = 13.47%) and total GWG in grams (MD: −723; 95% CI: −1037, −410; P < 0.0001; I2 = 46.29%). Adding azithromycin to an antimalarial regimen was associated with a greater GWG percent adequacy (MD: 2.75%; 95% CI: 0.46%, 5.05%; P = 0.19; I2 = 0.00%) and total GWG in gram at delivery (MD: 485; 95% CI: 210, 760; P = 0.0005; I2 = 75.66%). Interpretation Our findings suggest that monthly IPTp-SP has superior effect on GWG compared to weekly chloroquine or IPTp-DHA + PPQ in malaria-endemic areas. The result provides further evidence indicating that IPTp-SP improves maternal weight gain, an important determinant of fetal growth beyond its antimalarial effects. Due to the limited number of trials with weight and height measures available for the IPD meta-analysis we were likely underpowered to detect any significant difference between 2-dose SP and monthly IPTp-SP. More efforts are warranted to examine the potential beneficial effect of adding azithromycin or DHA + PPQ to the standard antimalarial regimens.

Economic and food security impacts of climate disasters and mitigation policies: Insights from Nigeria

Households with special dietary needs experienced higher food access challenges and worries during COVID-19