Consequences of Russia's war of aggression; “We must prevent further hoarding" (Der Spiegel)
Der Spiegel published an article featuring senior research fellow David Laborde. In an in-depth interview, Der Spiegel asked Laborde several questions about how the blocked ports in the Black Sea and extreme droughts throughout the world have created a chain of crises worldwide, making food more expensive. Laborde says that global hunger was there before, but the war has exacerbated the problems. The Russian blockade of Ukrainian ports has taken millions of tons of wheat from the world market. Wheat prices recently skyrocketed by more than 40 percent – and thus became unaffordable for many buyers in the MENA region (the Middle East and Northern Africa)—and these countries are huge consumers of wheat. He adds that the effects of the blockades and other problems involving food security are “Very different.
As in Germany, people in some regions simply must pay more. In others, they will be forced to eat less. Still, others will die because they have already faced the abyss. Up to six million people died every year as a result of starvation. Russia's invasion could starve another 200,000 people around the world. But the crisis goes beyond these numbers. It also affects the quality of life. A couple of months of malnutrition have negative consequences for the whole life.”
“COVID-19, climate change (droughts and flooding) has us dealing with one crisis after the next. The fertilizer crisis is here and will soon develop to its full extent if no action is taken.” Laborde explains, “Russia is one of the main exporters of all types of fertilizers, so it can hardly be replaced. The prices for nitrogen fertilizers are massive due to the increase and high prices of natural gas. This starts a vicious circle. Poor farmers can buy less fertilizer resulting in poorer harvests. So next season they have even less income and can buy even less fertilizer.” To stop the current crises, Laborde suggests, “The best thing for these countries would be the reopening of Ukrainian ports, but there is little progress. This is why we urgently need to prevent further panic and hoarding.”
Discussing export bans and countries that offer subsidies to farmers, Laborde says, “I think most of them are harmful. The US subsidies for wheat make it difficult for farmers in poorer countries to get a fair price for their crops. The decisions made now will only pay out in seven or eight years. Wheat is receiving media focus now, but other crops remain profitable. In terms of policies, Laborde said, “We need a well-informed and coordinated policy. That can Include subsidies, but they should specifically support poor people who pay higher food prices. This could be done, for example, by bank transfers by phone. In the long term, projects like Ceres 2030 aim to increase the income of small farmers in a sustainable way by 2030. In the short term, it should remain a priority that normal trade routes in the to reopen the Black Sea. The initiated by Germany, G7 Global Food Security Alliance is promising.”