AEI published a report/analysis by senior research fellows Joseph Glauber and David Laborde. They write, following a variety of recent shocks, prices of corn, soybeans, sunflower oil, and wheat on global markets are at near-record highs, while world stocks are low when compared to other recent price spikes; Low-income countries, whose families spend large shares of their incomes on food, and countries in the Middle East and North Africa that import large quantities of wheat from Russia and Ukraine will likely experience the most severe impacts due to war-related disruptions to grain and oilseed exports from the Black Sea. Left to themselves, over the medium; government policies (for example, providing increased incentives for biofuels or restricting grain exports) could exacerbate price volatility further. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will further disrupt global markets, hurt global grain supplies in the short term, and, by disrupting natural gas and fertilizer markets, negatively affect producers as they enter a new planting season. This could further increase already high food prices and have serious consequences for low-income net food–importing countries.
