The February 2022 invasion of Ukraine triggered trade disruptions and significant increases in international prices for energy, agricultural commodities, and fertilizer, which were already elevated due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, including value chain disruptions. Although global food and fertilizer prices have now receded from their peak levels, they remain high compared to pre-COVID levels, contributing to high domestic food price inflation in many low- and middle-income countries.
More information
The recent rapid rise in food, fuel, and fertilizer prices has raised concerns about economic stability, food security, and poverty in developing countries. IFPRI’s researchers have used two approaches to assess the impacts of these price shocks on a wide set of countries. The first approach used IFPRI’s economywide model (RIAPA) to estimate the expected effects of these price shocks on both farm and off-farm incomes and employment, food supplies, household consumption, inequality, poverty, and diet quality for 19 countries. The second approach assessed the degree of transmission of international price shocks for staple foods to domestic prices, and then used a household income and expenditure model to assess the resulting impacts on poverty in 6 countries. Separate country briefs have been prepared based on each approach. Click on the tabs below to read the briefs.
All RIAPA model-based briefs are also available at AgriLinks website. All household model-based briefs can also be accessed at the Food Security Portal.
Johan Swinnen, IFPRI Director General and Managing Director of CGIAR’s Systems Transformation Science Group, and Joseph Glauber, IFPRI Senior Research Fellow, serve as editors of this special blog series, which aims to shed light on the continuing repercussions of the Russia-Ukraine war and other factors exacerbating food price inflation and food insecurity, and to provide in-depth analysis and propose policy responses that can enhance the resilience of national and global food systems.
- Issue Post > IFPRI Blog
- Issue Post > IFPRI Blog
discussion paper | 2024 by Abdullah Mamun, David Laborde Debucquetdiscussion paper | 2024 by Nicholas Minot, Rob Vos, Soonho Kim, Beyeong Park, Sediqa Zaki, Pierre Mamboundoudiscussion paper | 2024 by Will Martin, Rob Vos
- In the News |
Wall Street Journal (Australia) quotes Keith Wiebe, IFPRI senior research fellow, in an article analyzing how heat waves and drought are threatening pasture on farms worldwide.
“If pasture becomes less productive, prices would be expected to rise, not just for meat, wool and dairy products but also for cereals and other food commodities that would see an increase in demand for use as feed,” said Wiebe.
- In the News |
"With duties, export bans, and other restrictions, New Delhi is harming the same developing nations it claims to want to lead," writes Mihir Sharma, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist and a senior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi.
- In the News |
"Countries have imposed restrictions on the food they export to protect their own supplies from the combined effect of the war in Ukraine, El Nino’s threat to food production and increasing damage from climate change," writes the Associated Press.