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With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Kinya Kaibung’a

Kinya Kaibung’a is a Research Officer with the Development Strategies and Governance Unit, based in Nairobi, Kenya. She has a keen interest in leveraging machine learning, AI, and other cutting-edge technologies to boost climate resilience and food security in smart agriculture systems.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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experts

Foresight and Policy Modeling

Keith Wiebe

Senior Research Fellow

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Bio

Keith Wiebe is a Senior Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit and Lead of the CGIAR Research Initiative on Foresight. In addition to foresight, his areas of particular interest include climate change, natural resource management, agricultural productivity, and food security. Prior to joining IFPRI in 2013, he was Deputy Director of the Agricultural Development Economics Division of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in Rome, where he managed a program of economic research and policy analysis for food security and sustainable development, and helped coordinate preparation of FAO’s annual flagship reports on the State of Food and Agriculture and the State of Food Insecurity in the World. Previously, he was Deputy Director of the Resource and Rural Economics Division of the US Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service in Washington, DC. He received his BA in Economics from Carleton College, and his MA and PhD in Agricultural Economics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Publications

Publications

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Report

Global agrifood systems outlook to 2050

2026
Wiebe, Keith D.; Cenacchi, Nicola; Dunston, Shahnila; Gabriel, Sherwin; Hartley, Faaiqa; Mishra, Abhijeet; Robertson, Richard D.; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Sulser, Timothy B.; Thomas, Timothy S.
…more Willenbockel, Dirk
Details

Global agrifood systems outlook to 2050

This is an embargoed publication to be available on 10 September, 2026. Register for the launch event: https://www.ifpri.org/event/global-agrifood-systems-outlook-to-2050-informing-decisions-under-uncertain-future/

Year published

2026

Authors

Wiebe, Keith D.; Cenacchi, Nicola; Dunston, Shahnila; Gabriel, Sherwin; Hartley, Faaiqa; Mishra, Abhijeet; Robertson, Richard D.; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Sulser, Timothy B.; Thomas, Timothy S.; Willenbockel, Dirk

Citation

Wiebe, Keith D.; Cenacchi, Nicola; Dunston, Shahnila; Gabriel, Sherwin; Hartley, Faaiqa; Mishra, Abhijeet; Robertson, Richard D.; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Sulser, Timothy B.; Thomas, Timothy S., and Willenbockel, Dirk. 2026. Global agrifood systems outlook to 2050. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/185223

Keywords

Agrifood Systems; Forecasting; Climate Change; Commodities; Agricultural Products; Modelling

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Report

Resource thumbnail

Journal Article

Healthier diets: A global economic modelling study of income and employment impacts across regions

2026Komarek, Adam M.; Willenbockel, Dirk; Dunston, Shahnila; Cenacchi, Nicola; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Mason-D’Croz, Mason; Sulser, Timothy B.; Wiebe, Keith D.
Details

Healthier diets: A global economic modelling study of income and employment impacts across regions

Interest has grown in how to achieve healthy, sustainable, and affordable human diets. The potential income and employment effects of a transition towards healthier diets have received much less attention. We simulate aggregate and sectoral income and employment for business-as-usual and healthier diets for all geographic regions up to 2050 using scenario-based modelling. These healthier diets can increase food’s share of household expenditure in some regions, for example from 18% to 25% in East and Central Africa in 2050. Our results suggest that a global shift towards healthier diets leads to a reallocation of primary factors of production, especially low-skilled labour and capital, from non-agricultural sectors to crop agriculture in parts of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Notably, in 2050, with healthier diets, agriculture’s share of low-skilled labour increases by 3.2 percentage points in East and Central Africa and 1.5 percentage points in South Asia excluding India. Although Gross Domestic Product increases in these regions relative to business-as-usual, this reallocation raises agriculture’s share of Gross Domestic Product, consistent with a slower pace of long-run structural transformation. The reallocation leads to a mild increase in wages for low-skilled workers relative to high-skilled workers in most of these regions, compared to business-as-usual. However, in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, food price increases outweigh wage gains for low-skilled labour, reducing real purchasing power. Policies that encourage healthier diets may also alter income and employment and reduce economic welfare of poor populations in some regions, so care is needed in policy design to avoid adverse unintended consequences.

Year published

2026

Authors

Komarek, Adam M.; Willenbockel, Dirk; Dunston, Shahnila; Cenacchi, Nicola; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Mason-D’Croz, Mason; Sulser, Timothy B.; Wiebe, Keith D.

Citation

Komarek, Adam M.; Willenbockel, Dirk; Dunston, Shahnila; Cenacchi, Nicola; Godfray, H. Charles J.; et al. 2026. Healthier diets: A global economic modelling study of income and employment impacts across regions. Food Policy 142(August 2026): 103118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103118

Keywords

Diet; Income; Employment; Econometric Models; Modelling; Food Affordability; Healthy Diets

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103118 Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Journal Article

Resource thumbnail

Journal Article

Food systems performance evaluated against targets and benchmarks reveals urgent gaps and a path to 2050

2026
Carducci, Bianca; Schneider Lecy, Kate; Nordhagen, Stella; Beal, Ty; Béné, Christophe; Gonzalez Fischer, Carlos; Herforth, Anna; Tubiello, Francesco N.; Ambikapathi, Ramya; Arunkumar, Krishna
…more Campeau, Christine; Dasgupta, Shouro; DeClerck, Fabrice; del Pino Álvarez, Inmaculada; Guarín, Alejandro; McLaren, Rebecca; Vivero-Pol, Jose Luis; Aburto, Nancy; Barquera, Simón; Battersby, Jane; Cafiero, Carlo; Conforti, Piero; Caron, Patrick; Cattaneo, Andrea; Covic, Namukolo; Elouafi, Ismahane; Fabi, Carola; Gephart, Jessica A.; Fremier, Alexander; Foley, Pat; Golden, Christopher D.; Hendriks, Sheryl L.; Huang, Jikun; Kennedy, Gina; Laar, Amos; Lal, Rattan; Lidder, Preetmoninder; Loken, Brent; Malapit, Hazel J.; Marshall, Quinn; Masuda, Yuta J.; Remans, Roseline; Resnick, Danielle; Saisana, Michaela; Sumaila, U. Rashid; Torero Cullen, Maximo; Webb, Patrick; Wiebe, Keith D.; Haddad, Lawrence; Rosero Moncayo, José; Fanzo, Jessica; Herrero, Mario
Details

Food systems performance evaluated against targets and benchmarks reveals urgent gaps and a path to 2050

Despite national and international commitments to food systems transformation and an increasing adoption of common indicators, no comprehensive targets have been established against which progress can be measured. Here, building on the Food Systems Countdown Initiative framework, we identify existing targets—based on internationally agreed commitments and normative goals—and establish benchmarks—based on empirically derived peer performance reference values at the global, regional and income group levels—for 44 Food Systems Countdown Initiative indicators. We also assess countries’ historical progress and the rate of change required to achieve targets and benchmarks over two different timescales. We show that current progress is insufficient to meet 2030 targets and benchmarks at global level. Comparing countries’ status to regional and income benchmarks, which are generally less ambitious, yields better performance across indicators and regions, although gaps remain. Achieving most targets and benchmarks by 2050 is possible if countries correct course and accelerate progress, but certain indicators will require considerable investment and intervention.

Year published

2026

Authors

Carducci, Bianca; Schneider Lecy, Kate; Nordhagen, Stella; Beal, Ty; Béné, Christophe; Gonzalez Fischer, Carlos; Herforth, Anna; Tubiello, Francesco N.; Ambikapathi, Ramya; Arunkumar, Krishna; Campeau, Christine; Dasgupta, Shouro; DeClerck, Fabrice; del Pino Álvarez, Inmaculada; Guarín, Alejandro; McLaren, Rebecca; Vivero-Pol, Jose Luis; Aburto, Nancy; Barquera, Simón; Battersby, Jane; Cafiero, Carlo; Conforti, Piero; Caron, Patrick; Cattaneo, Andrea; Covic, Namukolo; Elouafi, Ismahane; Fabi, Carola; Gephart, Jessica A.; Fremier, Alexander; Foley, Pat; Golden, Christopher D.; Hendriks, Sheryl L.; Huang, Jikun; Kennedy, Gina; Laar, Amos; Lal, Rattan; Lidder, Preetmoninder; Loken, Brent; Malapit, Hazel J.; Marshall, Quinn; Masuda, Yuta J.; Remans, Roseline; Resnick, Danielle; Saisana, Michaela; Sumaila, U. Rashid; Torero Cullen, Maximo; Webb, Patrick; Wiebe, Keith D.; Haddad, Lawrence; Rosero Moncayo, José; Fanzo, Jessica; Herrero, Mario

Citation

Carducci, Bianca; Schneider Lecy, Kate; Nordhagen, Stella; Beal, Ty; Béné, Christophe; et al. 2026. Food systems performance evaluated against targets and benchmarks reveals urgent gaps and a path to 2050. Nature Food 7(8): 802-812. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-026-01379-0

Keywords

Food Systems; Frameworks; Transformation

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-NC-ND-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-026-01379-0 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

Blogs

Reducing ozone pollution can offset the food security cost of climate action
Research Post
 | 
May 15, 2026

Reducing ozone pollution can offset the food security cost of climate action

By Abhijeet Mishra, Timothy Sulser, Keith Wiebe, and Eleanor Jones

Uncovering an additional benefit of mitigation.

What do we know about the future of food systems?
Research Post
 | 
July 23, 2025

What do we know about the future of food systems?

By Keith Wiebe, Elisabetta Gotor, and Evgeniya Anisimova

Challenges and opportunities for transformation.

Models as assets for food security: The impacts of IFPRI's IMPACT, RIAPA, and SPAM models
Research Post
 | 
May 15, 2025

Models as assets for food security: The impacts of IFPRI’s IMPACT, RIAPA, and SPAM models

By Alix Underwood, Eleanor Jones, Karl Pauw, Keith Wiebe, and Liangzhi You

IFPRI’s modeling tools—IMPACT, RIAPA, and SPAM—provide global, national, and subnational insights to guide food policy decisions. These models have influenced major investments and policies, offering evidence-based projections to enhance food security, nutrition, and resilience in evolving agrifood systems.

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Events

Global Agrifood Systems Outlook to 2050: Informing Decisions for an Uncertain Future
IFPRI Policy Seminar

 | 

September 10, 2026, 9:30 – 11:00 am

Global Agrifood Systems Outlook to 2050: Informing Decisions for an Uncertain Future

Also streaming on Please type your questions into the chat box with name, affiliation, and country. The event video, presenter slides, and podcast will be available in the days following the event. Around the world, agrifood systems are changing rapidly as populations grow, incomes rise, technological innovations emerge, and the climate shifts. But how will […]

What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems?
IFPRI Policy Seminar

 | 

July 23, 2025, 9:30 – 11:00 am

What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems?

Food systems have achieved remarkable progress in recent decades, but moving forward, they will face significant challenges in delivering the many outputs and services—such as poverty alleviation, nutrition and health, livelihoods, and environmental sustainability—we expect and need. By combining sophisticated analysis and close engagement with stakeholders, we can identify and explore the likely impacts of […]

How should governments respond to crises? Rapid response using RIAPA modeling system
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

August 13, 2024, 9:30 – 10:30 am

How should governments respond to crises? Rapid response using RIAPA modeling system

IFPRI’s foresight modeling systems cover food, land, and water systems across the world’s poorest and most food insecure geographies. Thanks to longstanding investments in these systems, IFPRI is uniquely positioned to provide rapid analysis of the impacts of global or domestic crises on agrifood systems, poverty, and food security at global, regional, national, or subnational […]

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News

July 15, 2026 | Press Release

Healthier and more sustainable diets could reshape global agriculture

A new study published in Nature today found that combining healthier diets, sustainable agricultural intensification, and cutting food waste in half would reduce pressure on land and natural resources while still meeting food needs.

November 05, 2025 | Press Release

New study examines affordability and nutritional implications of the 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission diet

The study, published in The Lancet Planetary Health, used IFPRI’s IMPACT model to assess how adopting the EAT-Lancet diet could affect calorie availability, share of income spent on food, nutrient availability, and food prices.

December 12, 2023 | Press Release

Re-imagining Africa’s food security within the context of climate change and ecological sustainability

This press-release was initially published by WWF on December 12, 2023.  WWF, the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, IFPRI, CGIAR, and AfDB have released a new report to help African countries to achieve food security and implement climate and nature commitments. The report is based on a joint study, executed with the technical support […]

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