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With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

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Timothy Thomas

Timothy Thomas is a Senior Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. His research focuses on the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Tim’s work involves developing innovative methods for simulated climate futures and model coordination between climate, crop, water, energy, and economics.

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Foresight and Policy Modeling

Abhijeet Mishra

Research Fellow

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Bio

Abhijeet Mishra is a Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. Abhijeet’s research interests include future sustainable pathways for the global land-use system and the trade-offs between land-based mitigation, food security, and other sustainable development goals. Before joining IFPRI, he worked in the land-use management group at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), where he contributed to the development of a forestry sector in MAgPIE, an open-source partial equilibrium land-use model.

Abhijeet is an agricultural economist with a PhD from Humboldt University, Germany; a master’s degree in rural economics and management from Ghent University, Belgium; and a bachelor’s degree in agricultural marketing and cooperation from the University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore, India.

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Publications

Resource thumbnail

Report

Global agrifood systems outlook to 2050

2026
Wiebe, Keith; Cenacchi, Nicola; Dunston, Shahnila; Gabriel, Sherwin; Hartley, Faaiqa; Mishra, Abhijeet; Robertson, Richard D.; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Sulser, Timothy B.; Thomas, Timothy S.
…more Willenbockel, Dirk
Details

Global agrifood systems outlook to 2050

Agrifood systems are changing in remarkable ways, driven by changes in population, income, technology, climate, and many other factors. Preparing for the future requires learning from the past while exploring how the future will differ. Helping public and private decision-makers in low- and middle-income countries plan strategically to meet future agrifood systems challenges requires a comprehensive longer-term outlook. This report uses advanced modeling tools to explore the likely direction and magnitude of changes in major agrifood systems indicators under “middle-of-the-road” assumptions about long-term changes in drivers. The authors present projections for a wide range of agrifood systems drivers and impact indicators over the next 25 years at global and regional levels. Substantial progress is projected across regions and agrifood systems indicators, but major challenges remain. <B>Report Landing Page</B>: https://www.ifpri.org/ifpri-book/global-agrifood-systems-outlook-to-2050/ <B>Print on Demand</B>: https://www.amazon.com/dp/089629479X <B>Launch Event</B>: https://www.ifpri.org/event/global-agrifood-systems-outlook-to-2050-informing-decisions-under-uncertain-future/

Year published

2026

Authors

Wiebe, Keith; Cenacchi, Nicola; Dunston, Shahnila; Gabriel, Sherwin; Hartley, Faaiqa; Mishra, Abhijeet; Robertson, Richard D.; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Sulser, Timothy B.; Thomas, Timothy S.; Willenbockel, Dirk

Citation

Wiebe, Keith; Cenacchi, Nicola; Dunston, Shahnila; Gabriel, Sherwin; Hartley, Faaiqa; et al. 2026. Global agrifood systems outlook to 2050. Report September 2026. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/185223

Keywords

Agrifood Systems; Forecasting; Climate Change; Commodities; Agricultural Products; Modelling

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Report

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Journal Article

Food systems transformation would reshape global agriculture

2026
Gibson, Matthew; Sundiang, Marina; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Diniz Oliveira, Thais; Beier, Felicitas; Benavidez, Lauren; Bos, Astrid; Chepeliev, Maksym; Doelman, Jonathan; Dunston, Shahnila
…more Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Hristov, Jordan; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Kozicka, Marta; Kuiper, Marijke; Kyle, Page; de Lange, Thijs; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Luchtenbelt, Hermen; Chen, David Meng-Chuen; Mishra, Abhijeet; Müller, Christoph; Nelson, Gerald; Palazzo, Amanda; Perez Dominguez, Ignacio; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Springmann, Marco; Stehfest, Elke; Sulser, Timothy B.; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Tassinari, Gianmaria; Thom, Ferike; Thornton, Philip K.; Tsuchiya, Kazuaki; van Zeist, Willem-Jan; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Van Vuuren, Detlef; van Zanten, Hannah H. E.; Weindl, Isabelle; Wiebe, Keith; Zhao, Xin; Herrero, Mario
Details

Food systems transformation would reshape global agriculture

Food systems are a major contributor to exceeding planetary boundaries and poor quality diets are a key mortality risk globally. Projected population and income growth could exacerbate these challenges. In response, there are calls for transformation towards healthy and sustainable food systems. However, the scale and distribution of the impacts of this transformation on agriculture are underexplored. Here we show that, by 2050, the transformation of food systems towards healthy diets (adoption of the EAT–Lancet reference diet), improved productivity and halving of food waste results in a fundamental restructuring of global agriculture, aspects of which break with historical trends. Scenario simulations using a multimodel ensemble of ten global economic models show a 6% median decrease in agricultural land (+1% to −26%) compared with 2020 levels. By 2050, agricultural production would be 17% lower than business-as-usual projections (−2% to −32%) and, economically, the value of this production is US$1.6 trillion (26%) lower (+8% to −58%). Within this, the value of livestock production would be substantially lower than current 2050 projections (−49% to −83%), while vegetable, fruit, nut and legume production value would increase by 23% (−33% to +106%). Results are dependent on the assumed policies to achieve the transformation scenario. We highlight a more active role for food policy to consider the benefits of such a transformation (improved population health and reduced environmental pressures) and navigate the political economy of its impacts.

Year published

2026

Authors

Gibson, Matthew; Sundiang, Marina; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Diniz Oliveira, Thais; Beier, Felicitas; Benavidez, Lauren; Bos, Astrid; Chepeliev, Maksym; Doelman, Jonathan; Dunston, Shahnila; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Hristov, Jordan; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Kozicka, Marta; Kuiper, Marijke; Kyle, Page; de Lange, Thijs; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Luchtenbelt, Hermen; Chen, David Meng-Chuen; Mishra, Abhijeet; Müller, Christoph; Nelson, Gerald; Palazzo, Amanda; Perez Dominguez, Ignacio; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Springmann, Marco; Stehfest, Elke; Sulser, Timothy B.; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Tassinari, Gianmaria; Thom, Ferike; Thornton, Philip K.; Tsuchiya, Kazuaki; van Zeist, Willem-Jan; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Van Vuuren, Detlef; van Zanten, Hannah H. E.; Weindl, Isabelle; Wiebe, Keith; Zhao, Xin; Herrero, Mario

Citation

Gibson, Matthew; Sundiang, Marina; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Diniz Oliveira, Thais; Beier, Felicitas; et al. 2026. Food systems transformation would reshape global agriculture. Nature 657(8130): 156-163. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10775-2

Keywords

Food Systems; Agricultural Transformation; Agriculture; Food Policies; Sustainability; Mathematical Models

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10775-2 Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Journal Article

Resource thumbnail

Conference Paper

Assessing potential environmental and socioeconomic consequences of a food system transformation. An overview of economic modelling supporting the second EAT-Lancet commission

2026
Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Sundiang, Marina; Gibson, Matthew; Oliveira, Thais Diniz; Beier, Felicitas; Benavidez, Lauren; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bos, Astrid; Chepeliev, Maksym; Chen, David Meng-Chuen
…more de Lange, Thijs; Doelman, Jonathan; Dunston, Shahnila; Frank, Stefan; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Hristov, Jordan; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Kozicka, Marta; Kiper, Marijke; Kyle, Page; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Luchtenbelt, Hermen; Mishra, Abhijeet; Müller, Christoph; Nelson, Gerald C.; Palazzo, Amanda; Perez Dominguez, Ignacio; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Springmann, Marco; Stehfest, Elke; Sulser, Timothy B.; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Van Zaist, Willem-Jan; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Van Vuuren, Detlef; van Zanten, Hannah H. E.; Weindl, Isabelle; Wiebe, Keith D.; Zhao, Xin; Herrero, Mario
Details

Assessing potential environmental and socioeconomic consequences of a food system transformation. An overview of economic modelling supporting the second EAT-Lancet commission

The first EAT-Lancet report proposed a great food system transformation composed of a shift to a healthy diet, increased agricultural productivity and reductions in food loss and waste. This study highlighted the potential of such a food system transformation to move towards greater environmental sustainability. However, questions were raised about the health and nutritional adequacy of the recommended diet as well as the socioeconomic and justice implications of such a food system transformation. In response to these questions the modelling in the second EAT-Lancet report looked to explore a broader range of socioeconomic and justice implications of a food system transformation. To do this the modelling efforts in the second commission were expanded to include a multi-model ensemble composed of 10 global economic models. This ensemble ran a series of scenarios to assess the potential impacts of the original 3 EAT-Lancet transformation drivers (dietary change, reduced food loss and waste, and increased agricultural productivity), as well as a new driver of ambitious climate mitigation, with the objective of identifying potential complementarities and trade-offs between the drivers of change. This paper presents the ensemble approach and summarizes key modeling results from this effort, which are broadly consistent with results from the first EAT-Lancet report. However, the application of economic models suggests that there may be greater challenges in achieving all environmental objectives (e.g., nitrogen and phosphorous) without additional measures. This class of models also facilitated an assessment of potential price and food affordability consequences of a global shift to a healthy diet. This paper will explore these findings and highlight where there is greater agreement across the model, as well as note where substantial model uncertainty remains. focus on identifying where the models are in greater agreement and where substantial model uncertainty remains.

Year published

2026

Authors

Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Sundiang, Marina; Gibson, Matthew; Oliveira, Thais Diniz; Beier, Felicitas; Benavidez, Lauren; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bos, Astrid; Chepeliev, Maksym; Chen, David Meng-Chuen; de Lange, Thijs; Doelman, Jonathan; Dunston, Shahnila; Frank, Stefan; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Hristov, Jordan; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Kozicka, Marta; Kiper, Marijke; Kyle, Page; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Luchtenbelt, Hermen; Mishra, Abhijeet; Müller, Christoph; Nelson, Gerald C.; Palazzo, Amanda; Perez Dominguez, Ignacio; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Springmann, Marco; Stehfest, Elke; Sulser, Timothy B.; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Van Zaist, Willem-Jan; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Van Vuuren, Detlef; van Zanten, Hannah H. E.; Weindl, Isabelle; Wiebe, Keith D.; Zhao, Xin; Herrero, Mario

Citation

Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Sundiang, Marina; Gibson, Matthew; Oliveira, Thais Diniz; Beier, Felicitas; et al. 2026. Assessing potential environmental and socioeconomic consequences of a food system transformation. An overview of economic modelling supporting the second EAT-Lancet commission. Presented during the 29th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis in Kyoto, Japan, June 17-19, 2026. https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/res_display.asp?RecordID=7829

Keywords

Modelling; Econometric Models; Environmental Impact; Socioeconomic Impact; Sustainable Development; Food Prices; Food Security; Mathematical Models

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Conference Paper

Events

Global Agrifood Systems Outlook to 2050: Informing Decisions for an Uncertain Future
IFPRI Policy Seminar

 | 

September 10, 2026, 9:30 – 11:00 am

Global Agrifood Systems Outlook to 2050: Informing Decisions for an Uncertain Future

Around the world, agrifood systems are changing rapidly as populations grow, incomes rise, technological innovations emerge, and the climate shifts. But how will these systems continue to evolve over the next 25 years? Anticipating and preparing for change requires us to learn from the past and anticipate future dynamics. While near-term forecasts and medium-term outlooks […]

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

August 2 to 7, 2024

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists

The triennial International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE-2024), centred on the theme “Transformation Towards Sustainable Agri-Food Systems” is scheduled from August 2-7, 2024, in New Delhi, India. The conference offers a distinctive platform, providing a golden opportunity for the agricultural academic institutions and researchers to convene in person, exchange knowledge, and actively contribute to the […]

News

September 10, 2026 | Press Release

New IFPRI/CGIAR report explores the future of global agrifood systems through 2050

Comprehensive long-term analysis highlights opportunities for progress and the need for strategic policy and investment planning to address emerging food, nutrition, and sustainability challenges.

July 15, 2026 | Press Release

Healthier and more sustainable diets could reshape global agriculture

A new study published in Nature today found that combining healthier diets, sustainable agricultural intensification, and cutting food waste in half would reduce pressure on land and natural resources while still meeting food needs.

November 05, 2025 | Press Release

New study examines affordability and nutritional implications of the 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission diet

The study, published in The Lancet Planetary Health, used IFPRI’s IMPACT model to assess how adopting the EAT-Lancet diet could affect calorie availability, share of income spent on food, nutrient availability, and food prices.

View all News