A shift to healthier and more sustainable food systems could dramatically change global agriculture by 2050. A new study published in Nature today found that combining healthier diets, sustainable agricultural intensification, and cutting food waste in half would reduce pressure on land and natural resources while still meeting food needs.
Under this scenario, the study found that:
- A shift to healthier diets along with reduced food loss and waste would lower the amount of output needed to meet consumer demand, primarily due to reduced demand for animal-source foods (and thus for livestock feed).
- As a result, by 2050, the value of livestock production would fall by 49–83% compared to a business-as-usual scenario, while other commodities would see increases.
- Combined with sustainable agricultural intensification, this means that global agricultural land use could decline by 6-42% compared to a business-as-usual scenario by 2050.
- Overall agricultural production would decrease by 2–32% compared with business-as-usual projections for 2050.
- The total economic value of agricultural production would be about 26% lower (roughly US$1.6 trillion less) in 2050 than projected under current trends.
Abhijeet Mishra, an IFPRI co-author, shares:”The study asks, what would global food systems look like if the world adopted the healthy diets recommended by the 2025 EAT-Lancet Commission? We found that it is possible, but the transformation needed would require a truly historically unprecedented restructuring of global agriculture, breaking from a long-standing trend of expanding production while reducing agricultural land use along with sustainable intensification. This transformation would also come with additional co-benefits for climate change mitigation and biodiversity.”
Using analysis from an ensemble of ten different global economic models from collaborating partners around the world, researchers compared a business-as-usual scenario to 2050 with a scenario that combines three major changes: adoption of healthier diets based on the 2025 EAT-Lancet recommendations, sustainable agricultural intensification, and a 50% reduction in food loss and waste.
Overall, the study suggests that it may be possible to create a healthier and more environmentally sustainable food system while using less land and providing adequate diets for all. However, such a transition would significantly affect farmers, livestock producers, and agricultural markets, highlighting the need for policies that help manage these changes. “Research that examines these diverse impacts and tradeoffs is essential to help policymakers and other stakeholders anticipate and develop strategies to manage these changes in the future,” says IFPRI’s Keith Wiebe, one of the co-authors of the study. Ongoing research with colleagues at the International Livestock Research Institute and the WorldFish Center is exploring these questions further.
“It’s important that our modeling team be ready to engage with research opportunities such as these,” reflects Timothy Sulser, another IFPRI co-author of the study. “Large-scale, global analyses with colleagues around the world that are published in high-level journals carry important influence in global and regional policy-making fora. Our modeling team brings a unique perspective to this type of work that emphasizes developing economies and the details of the agrifood system (disaggregated commodities and geographies) that are crucial for considering the realities faced in LMIC countries.“
The study was conducted by an international team of more than 40 researchers from leading universities, research institutes, and international organizations, including Cornell University, Wageningen University & Research, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), IFPRI, IIASA, ILRI, Purdue University, the European Commission Joint Research Centre, and other partners across North America, Europe, Asia, and Africa. Abhijeet Mishra, Timothy Sulser, and Keith Wiebe from IFPRI’s Foresight and Policy Modeling team contributed to the analysis using IFPRI’s IMPACT modeling system.
The IFPRI team’s work was carried out under the CGIAR Science Program on Policy Innovations, supported by funder contributions to the CGIAR Trust Fund.
Citation: Gibson, M., Sundiang, M., Mason-D’Croz, D. et al. Food systems transformation would reshape global agriculture. Nature (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10775-2
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About IFPRI: The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition. IFPRI’s strategic research aims to identify and analyze alternative international and country-led strategies and policies for meeting food and nutrition needs in low- and middle-income countries, with particular emphasis on poor and vulnerable groups in those countries, inclusive development, and sustainability. It is a research center of CGIAR; a worldwide partnership engaged in agricultural research for development. http://www.ifpri.org
Media inquiries: Evgeniya Anisimova, e.anisimova@cgiar.org