Karl Pauw

Paving the way: The impact of road infrastructure on agricultural productivity in isolated African settings

Road infrastructure is a key driver of agricultural growth and transformation. Using three large nationally representative, randomly sampled survey datasets and group-time difference-in-difference estimation strategies, this study establishes the relationship between paved road access and crop productivity in Malawi. Results reveal significant positive effects of access to paved roads on crop productivity, as measured by the average value product of land. They further reveal a growing impact over time, with estimated productivity increases ranging from 35% to 57% over a span of 10 years. This confirms that road infrastructure is a key enabler of sustained agricultural productivity growth, thus providing a strong justification for the allocation of more public resources toward investments in rural road networks that can improve market access, reduce transport costs and postharvest losses, and create incentives for the adoption of productivity-enhancing technologies.

Applying foresight analysis in national agrifood system investment planning

National governments, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, face considerable complexity in long- and midrange agrifood system development planning. These processes must translate political priorities and commitments into credible investment strategies, while coordinating across ministries, engaging diverse stakeholders, and mobilizing domestic and external financing. At the same time, planners must contend with deep uncertainty around climate change, technological change, market dynamics, and demographic and nutrition transitions, often under conditions of constrained analytical capacity and limited resources.

Agrifood systems of India: A state-level analysis using a social accounting matrix