The Russia-Ukraine conflict and global food security
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the conflict quickly sparked fears of a global food crisis. Food prices were already high in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, and many countries were facing serious food insecurity. The Black Sea region is critical to meeting the world’s food needs, as is Russia’s role in supplying natural gas and, along with Belarus, fertilizers. Any disruption to this trade would drive up food prices and aggravate poverty, hunger, and malnutrition in vulnerable countries. With other countries undertaking export restrictions, these trade disruptions became even larger. The conflict has primarily affected food systems through effects on trade in cereals and vegetable oils, interruptions to fertilizer exports, and rising energy prices, although a drop in agricultural production in Ukraine is also a significant factor. Together, these impacts could drive millions more people into hunger and poverty. Early in the crisis, the FAO estimated that a prolonged disruption of exports from Ukraine and Russia could increase the number of undernourished people by 8 to 13 million in 2022.
IFPRI responded rapidly to the need for information and policy advice to address this new crisis. We signaled the worrying outlook for some agricultural commodities prior to the onset of conflict, and our first analysis on potential impacts was released on February 24, the day of the invasion. Mindful of the urgent need for analysis, IFPRI established a new blog series on High Food and Fertilizer Prices and War in Ukraine. This series, which was supported by a set of online trackers and dashboards providing access to detailed information, allowed for rapid dissemination of critical information and was widely shared through our website and communications with policymakers and media outlets. IFPRI’s strong presence at the country level allowed researchers to provide important insights into the conflict’s impact on vulnerable countries and regions. The blog posts include timely analysis of trade flows, tracking of food prices and policy responses, and results of impact modeling for vulnerable countries, which were more fully examined in a series of briefs.
This book is a compilation of those blog posts. Together, they provide an overview of how the crisis has progressed, how the international community and individual countries responded with efforts to ensure food security, and what we are learning about the best ways to ensure food security in the aftermath of a major shock to global food systems. These blog posts each reflect a moment in time — the Russia-Ukraine war and its global repercussions have continued to evolve, especially since the earliest posts were written. Thus, they provide a vivid set of “snapshots” that can help us understand and learn from this crisis. As of this writing, international prices have declined from their post-invasion highs, but as the crisis continues to unfold, further volatility seems almost certain. Moreover, compounding factors have exacerbated inflation around the world. Given that the total supply of both food and fertilizers may be enough for all of humanity, the crisis remains one of affordability rather than availability.
Table of Contents
SECTION 1 A Conflict with Global Consequences.
- Chapter 1 How will Russia’s invasion of Ukraine affect global food security? [download]
by Joseph Glauber and David Laborde | Pp. 10-14 - Chapter 2 A food crisis was brewing even before the Ukraine war — but taking these three steps could help the most vulnerable [download]
by Derek Headey and Kalle Hirvonen | Pp. 15-17 - Chapter 3 The Russia-Ukraine war’s impact on global food markets: A historical perspective [download]
by Joseph Glauber, David Laborde, and Johan Swinnen | Pp. 18-23 - Chapter 4 The Russia-Ukraine war is exacerbating international food price volatility [download]
by Brendan Rice, Manuel A. Hernández, Joseph Glauber, and Rob Vos | Pp. 24-26 - Chapter 5 No end in sight yet for the global food price crisis [download]
by Joseph Glauber, Manuel Hernández, David Laborde, Will Martin, Brendan Rice, and Rob Vos | Pp. 27-32 - Chapter 6 The impact of the Ukraine crisis on the global vegetable oil market [download]
by Joseph Glauber, David Laborde, and Abdullah Mamun | Pp. 33-37 - Chapter 7 High fertilizer prices contribute to rising global food security concerns [download]
by Charlotte Hebebrand and David Laborde | Pp. 38-42 - Chapter 8 The Russia-Ukraine war after a year: Impacts on fertilizer production, prices, and trade flows [download]
by Charlotte Hebebrand and Joseph Glauber | Pp. 43-47 - Chapter 9 Is food price inflation really subsiding? [download]
by Rob Vos, Joseph Glauber, and David Laborde | Pp. 48-51 - Chapter 10 Assessing tight global wheat stocks and their role in price volatility [download]
by Joseph Glauber | Pp. 52-56 - Chapter 11 Ukraine one year later: Impacts on global food security [download]
by Joseph Glauber | Pp. 57-61
SECTION 2: Policy Recommendations
- Chapter 12 Do no harm: Measured policy responses are key to addressing food security impacts of the Ukraine crisis [download]
by Charlotte Hebebrand and David Laborde | Pp. 64-68 - Chapter 13 Short-term policy considerations to respond to Russia-Ukraine crisis disruptions in fertilizer availability and affordability [download]
by Elizabeth Bryan and Claudia Ringler | Pp. 69-74 - Chapter 14 The response to the global food crisis must address the needs of women and girls [download]
by Elizabeth Bryan and Claudia Ringler | Pp. 75-76 - Chapter 15 The global food price crisis threatens to cause a global nutrition crisis: New evidence from 1.27 million young children on the effects of inflation [download]
by Derek Headey and Marie Ruel | Pp. 77-80 - Chapter 16 MC12: How to make the WTO relevant in the middle of a food price crisis [download]
by Joseph Glauber, David Laborde, Abdullah Mamun, Elsa Olivetti, and Valeria Piñeiro | Pp. 81-85 - Chapter 17 Can the G7 be a force for good in the current global food security crisis? [download]
by David Laborde and Carin Smaller | Pp. 86-88
SECTION 3: Trade Policy Responses and Mitigation Options
- Chapter 18 From bad to worse: How Russia-Ukraine war-related export restrictions exacerbate global food insecurity [download]
by Joseph Glauber, David Laborde, and Abdullah Mamun | Pp. 92-96 - Chapter 19 Food export restrictions have eased as the Russia-Ukraine war continues, but concerns remain for key commodities [download]
by Joseph Glauber, David Laborde, and Abdullah Mamun | Pp. 97-102 - Chapter 20 The Russia-Ukraine grain agreement: What is at stake? [download]
by Joseph Glauber and David Laborde | Pp. 103-107 - Chapter 21 Suspension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative: What has the deal achieved, and what happens now? [download]
by David Laborde and Joseph Glauber | Pp. 108-111 - Chapter 22 How sanctions on Russia and Belarus are impacting exports of agricultural products and fertilizer [download]
by Joseph Glauber and David Laborde | Pp. 112-117
SECTION 4: Country Impacts and Responses
Ukraine
- Chapter 23 Regional war, global consequences: Mounting damages to Ukraine’s agriculture and growing challenges for global food security [download]
by Pavlo Martyshev, Oleg Nivievskyi, and Mariia Bogonos | Pp. 120-124
Middle East and North Africa
- Chapter 24 The Russia-Ukraine crisis poses a serious food security threat for Egypt [download]
by Kibrom Abay, Lina Abdelfattah, Clemens Breisinger, Joseph Glauber, and David Laborde | Pp. 125-128 - Chapter 25 Food price shocks and diets among poor households in Egypt [download]
by Kibrom Abay, Naureen Karachiwalla, Sikandra Kurdi, and Yousra Salama | Pp. 129-134 - Chapter 26 One of the world’s worst economic collapses, now compounded by the Ukraine crisis: What’s next for Lebanon? [download]
by Clemens Breisinger, Nadim Khouri, Joseph Glauber, and David Laborde | Pp. 135-139 - Chapter 27 The Russian invasion of Ukraine threatens to further exacerbate the food insecurity emergency in Yemen [download]
by Sikandra Kurdi, Clemens Breisinger, Joseph Glauber, and David Laborde | Pp. 140-144 - Chapter 28 Addressing the food crisis in Yemen: The private sector’s key role amid local conflict and global market disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine war [download]
by Sikandra Kurdi, Olivier Ecker, Joseph Glauber, and David Laborde | Pp. 145-149
Sub-Saharan Africa
- Chapter 29 West Africa faces mixed food security impacts from the Russia-Ukraine conflict [download]
by Antoine Bouët, David Laborde, and Fousseini Traoré | Pp. 150-153 - Chapter 30 The Russia-Ukraine conflict is likely to compound Sudan’s existing food security problems [download]
by Clemens Breisinger, Oliver Kirui, Paul Dorosh, Joseph Glauber, and David Laborde | Pp. 154-157 - Chapter 31 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens food security in Malawi. How can the country respond? [download]
by Joachim De Weerdt and Jan Duchoslav | Pp. 158-163 - Chapter 32 The Russia-Ukraine crisis presents threats to Nigeria’s food security, but potential opportunities for the fertilizer, energy sectors [download]
by Bedru Balana, Kwaw Andam, Mulubrhan Amare, Dolapo Adeyanju, and David Laborde | Pp. 164-169 - Chapter 33 Rising commodities prices driven by the Russia-Ukraine crisis threaten to undermine Kenya’s economy, increase poverty [download]
by Clemens Breisinger, Xinshen Diao, Paul Dorosh, Juneweenex Mbuthia, Lensa Omune, Edwin Ombui Oseko, Angga Pradesha, and James Thurlow | Pp. 170-174
Asia
- Chapter 34 How the war in Ukraine threatens Bangladesh’s food security [download]
by Abdullah Mamun, Joseph Glauber, and David Laborde | Pp. 175-180
Latin America
- Chapter 35 Can agricultural exports from Southern Cone countries make up for global supply disruptions arising from the Russia-Ukraine war? [download]
by Joseph Glauber, David Laborde, Valeria Piñeiro, and Agustín Tejeda | Pp. 181-186