Subscribe

Back

Who we are

With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Danielle Resnick

Danielle Resnick is a Senior Research Fellow in the Markets, Trade, and Institutions Unit and a Non-Resident Fellow in the Global Economy and Development Program at the Brookings Institution. Her research focuses on the political economy of agricultural policy and food systems, governance, and democratization, drawing on extensive fieldwork and policy engagement across Africa and South Asia.

Back

What we do

Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

Research topics

Projects and impact

Food Security Portal

Modeling tools

What’s new

Where we work

Back

Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 480 employees working in over 70 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

IFPRI Regional Programs

IFPRI Country Programs

Research by country and region

Subscribe

experts

Development Strategies and Governance

Nabila Shaima

Research Analyst

Follow

Nabila

at:

ORCiD

Bio

Nabila Afrin Shaima is a Research Assistant in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit. She joined IFPRI in 2018 under the Integrated Food Policy Research Program in Bangladesh. Her research interests focus on environmental development and social sciences. She hopes to function as a change agent and initiate, promote, and manage processes of transition toward sustainable policies in economic, scientific, and civil organizations. Prior to joining IFPRI, Nabila was a Research Assistant in the Math and Science Department of the Asian University for Women. She holds a bachelor’s degree in Biological Sciences from the Asian University for Women and a master’s degree in Biotechnology from BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Development Strategies and Governance

Publications

Resource thumbnail

Working Paper

Foresight for food markets: Developing and implementing market forecasting methods/models

2024Dorosh, Paul A.; Mustafa, Shoumi; Kabir, Razin; Shaima, Nabila Afrin
Details

Foresight for food markets: Developing and implementing market forecasting methods/models

The “Foresight for Food Markets: Developing and Implementing Market Forecasting Methods/Models with Hands-on Training at the FPMU” is an element of Integrated Food Policy Research Program (IFPRP). Originally signed in 2016 between the Government of Bangladesh (GoB) and the Joint Venture (JV) comprising the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), the Bangladesh Institute of the Development Studies (BIDS), and the University of Illinois, IFPRP was extended and modified in subsequent periods. The most recent updated contract between the GoB and the JV was signed in mid-2022. Deliverable 4.3, Foresight for Food Markets: Developing and Implementing Market Forecasting Methods/Models with Hands-on Training at the FPMU is one of the new deliverables included in the updated contract. Rising prices of essential commodities affect consumer welfare and pose a serious challenge to the Government of Bangladesh. Knowing prices of essentials in advance would allow the government to take necessary measures to restrain the extent of price increases or to mitigate effects of rising prices; such measures could include provisions of direct distributions of rice and wheat through social safety net programs or of subsidized open market sales on the one hand and engaging in direct imports of essentials or easing import restrictions for the private sector, on the other. Because price fluctuations are a feature of a free market, there is a persistent need for the government to be able to project consumer prices in advance. Accordingly, it is important that in addition to receiving estimates prepared by external experts, the government has the ability to obtain its own price projections; the government should have the estimates when it needs them and for commodities for which such information is needed. Against this backdrop, IFPRP is providing hands-on training on price projection techniques to officials from the Food Planning and Monitoring Unit (FPMU), the Directorate General of Food (DG Food), and the Ministry of Food (MoFood). It is envisioned that trained officials from the DG Food, the Ministry of Food, and mostly from the FPMU will produce price projection estimates on their own with IFPRP personnel helping a consultative capacity.

Year published

2024

Authors

Dorosh, Paul A.; Mustafa, Shoumi; Kabir, Razin; Shaima, Nabila Afrin

Citation

Dorosh, Paul A.; Mustafa, Shoumi; Kabir, Razin Iqbal; and Shaima, Nabila Afrin. 2024. Foresight for food markets: Developing and implementing market forecasting methods/models. IFPRP Working Paper 13. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/149088

Country/Region

Bangladesh

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Capacity Development; Food Policies; Forecasting; Prices

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Policies, Institutions, and Markets

Record type

Working Paper

Resource thumbnail

Working Paper

Diagnostic study of DG Food: An assessment of DG Food’s current mandates, performance, and capacity gaps, and a remedial program to strengthen the agency

2024Mustafa, Shoumi; Ali, A. M. M. Shawkat; Islam, Kazi Nurul; Dorosh, Paul A.; Rashid, Shahidur; Shaima, Nabila Afrin
Details

Diagnostic study of DG Food: An assessment of DG Food’s current mandates, performance, and capacity gaps, and a remedial program to strengthen the agency

This study conducts an assessment of the current mandates, performance, and capacity gaps of the Directorate General of Food (DG Food) and suggests remedies to strengthen the agency. Formed originally as the Supply Department in undivided Bengal under British rule in the early 1940s, the organization was named the Directorate General of Food by the provincial government of East Pakistan in 1956. Upon the independence of Bangladesh in 1971, DG Food became a part of the Ministry of Food and Civil Supplies and was later renamed as the Directorate General of Food in 1975. The last major reorganization of the agency took place in 1984. The current mandates and organogram are from 1984. As the custodian of the Public Food Distribution System (PFDS), DG Food plays an important role for the Government of Bangladesh (GoB). Under the Social Safety Net Programs (SSNP) of the GoB, DG Food ensures food security for vulnerable populations. In its sprawling countrywide network of 650-plus traditional warehouses, DG Food has an effective storage capacity of 1.9 million tons. In recent years, DG Food has procured and distributed approximately 3.0 million tons of foodgrains per year. A very large organization, DG Food has a sanctioned workforce of over 13,000 officers and employees, and an annual budget of approximately 1.5 billion U.S. dollars.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mustafa, Shoumi; Ali, A. M. M. Shawkat; Islam, Kazi Nurul; Dorosh, Paul A.; Rashid, Shahidur; Shaima, Nabila Afrin

Citation

Mustafa, Shoumi; Ali, A M M Shawkat; Islam, Kazi Nurul; Dorosh, Paul A.; Rashid, Shahidur; and Shaima, Nabila Afrin. 2024. Diagnostic study of DG Food: An assessment of DG Food’s current mandates, performance, and capacity gaps, and a remedial program to strengthen the agency. Integrated Food Policy Research Program Working Paper 14. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/149092

Country/Region

Bangladesh

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Capacity Assessment; Food Security; Rice; Wheat

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Policies, Institutions, and Markets

Record type

Working Paper

Resource thumbnail

Working Paper

Effectiveness of current and alternative procurement modalities: An evaluation of the effectiveness of current and potential alternative grain procurement modalities, and development of a framework for stock turnover

2024Rashid, Shahidur; Mustafa, Shoumi; Kabir, Razin; Shaima, Nabila Afrin
Details

Effectiveness of current and alternative procurement modalities: An evaluation of the effectiveness of current and potential alternative grain procurement modalities, and development of a framework for stock turnover

This report has been prepared as one of the deliverables of the Bangladesh Integrated Food Policy Research Program (BIFPRP) implemented by the Ministry of Food, Government of Bangladesh under a World Investment for Modernizing Food Storages Facilities in the country. The key arguments and recommendations drawn up for the report are based on both quantitative and qualitative data. Food and agricultural policies have historically played a crucial role in triggering growth in many developing countries. While there were debates, public procurement and distribution of food are widely accepted as a “second best” solutions for countries characterized by markets and institutional failures. However, Bangladesh has done remarkably well in adjusting to changing realities and the country is now widely recognized for its agricultural policy reforms. But there is still room for further improvement and efficiency gains for which two broad sets of recommendation can be considered: 1) Pricing and procurement targets – Pricing in Bangladesh continues to be based on the average cost of production but with the application of satellite imageries, app-based small area estimation, the procurement price estimates can be improved substantially. Also, the current procurement target determination formula misses out on some key aspects of production, marketing, and macroeconomic parameters. The quota for each upazila is based on total production and milling capacities but it also needs to consider the net surplus to calculate how much could be procured in each Upazilas. 2) Alternative procurement modalities a) The report recommends changing this modality to Delivered to Destination Warehouse (DDW) through the open tendering method and undertaking pilots and learning from experiences to enhance efficiency can be important. b) Linking smallholders to markets through product aggregation has received renewed attention globally. Available data suggests that Bangladesh’s public procurement has thus far not managed to effectively integrate small farmers to its procurement system. To scale up nationally, we believe that more innovation in technology and a new institutional set up will be necessary. c) Implementing Delivered Duty Paid Modality on a pilot basis where the seller assumes all responsibilities and costs for delivering the goods to the named place of destination. d) Piloting Deficiency Payment Method as an effective method to provide both income and price to farmers of a wide range of agricultural commodities. Two key instruments of implementing this method would be Marketing Assistance Loan (MAL) and the Loan Deficiency Payment (LDP), which are tools available to the farmers. A recent report by the NITI Aayog of India also makes a strong case for this procurement modality and we also argue in favor of undertaking this pilot.

Year published

2024

Authors

Rashid, Shahidur; Mustafa, Shoumi; Kabir, Razin; Shaima, Nabila Afrin

Citation

Rashid, Shahidur; Mustafa, Shoumi; Kabir, Razin Iqbal; and Shaima, Nabila Afrin. 2024. Effectiveness of current and alternative procurement modalities: An evaluation of the effectiveness of current and potential alternative grain procurement modalities, and development of a framework for stock turnover. IFPRP Working Paper 16. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/149087

Country/Region

Bangladesh

Keywords

Southern Asia; Price Policies; Agricultural Production; Markets; Supply Balance; Smallholders

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Policies, Institutions, and Markets

Record type

Working Paper

Research

Topics/Countries