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David Spielman

David Spielman is the director of IFPRI’s Innovation Policy and Scaling Unit and has been with the institute since 2004. His research agenda covers a range of topics including agriculture and rural development policy; agricultural science, technology, and innovation; plant genetic resources and seed systems; agricultural extension and advisory services; and community-driven rural development.

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Foresight and Policy Modeling

Peixun Fang

Senior Research Analyst

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Bio

Peixun (Percy) Fang is a Senior Research Analyst in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit, conducting research on topics including agricultural commodities and livestock value chains, livelihoods, and mechanization. He has provided research support to the Malawi and Ghana country programs, and his most recent work has focused on the Myanmar Agricultural Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and rural household livelihood strategies in Papua New Guinea. Peixun received his master’s in Agricultural Economics from Cornell University.

Publications

Publications

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Working Paper

Malawi’s agrifood system: Transformation and environmental impacts

2025Diao, Xinshen; De Weerdt, Joachim; Fang, Peixun; Jones, Eleanor; Nagoli, Joseph; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James
Details

Malawi’s agrifood system: Transformation and environmental impacts

This paper is an update of Country Brief 8 in the series of Agrifood System Diagnostics coauthored by De Weerdt et al. (2023). The important addition from the previous country brief is a new section assessing agriculture’s environmental footprint, focusing on water use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by subsector and over time. Unlike the previous version, this brief does not include a forward-looking analysis—using IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model (IFPRI 2023)—of the contribution of productivity growth in agricultural value chains on agrifood transformation, employment, and socioeconomic outcomes. For a recent and extensive value chain ranking analysis that incorporates RIAPA modeling results, readers are referred to Pienaar et al. (2023). Malawi experienced slow growth in the post COVID-19 pandemic period. In addition to the economic impacts of the pandemic itself, the country suffered from high levels of public debt and a sustained balance of payments crisis. Global events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and adverse weather events such as Cyclone Freddy and the El Niño in 2023–2024 further prevented the Malawi economy from returning to pre-pandemic growth levels. Economic growth rates have dropped from an average of 4.1 percent in 2011–2019 to 2.2 percent since 2020 (World Bank 2025), with an average growth rate of 3.8 percent per year during 2009–2022.

Year published

2025

Authors

Diao, Xinshen; De Weerdt, Joachim; Fang, Peixun; Jones, Eleanor; Nagoli, Joseph; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James

Citation

Diao, Xinshen; De Weerdt, Joachim; Fang, Peixun; Jones, Eleanor; Nagoli, Joseph; et al. 2025. Malawi’s agrifood system: Transformation and environmental impacts. IFPRI Working Paper. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178668

Country/Region

Malawi

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Agrifood Systems; Environmental Impact; Value Chains; Trade

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Resource thumbnail

Working Paper

Regional implications of public investments and external shocks in Papua New Guinea: An economywide analysis

2025Dorosh, Paul A.; Fang, Peixun; Pradesha, Angga
Details

Regional implications of public investments and external shocks in Papua New Guinea: An economywide analysis

Improvements in telecommunications have enabled a tremendous increase in the flow of information across Papua New Guinea. Although transport costs remain high between various parts of the main island of Papua New Guinea, as well as between the main island and other parts of the country (e.g. the islands of New Britain and Bougainville to the East), phone and internet conditions enable government, traders and entrepreneurs to share market information that reduces transactions costs and improves market function. Nonetheless, there remain major differences in agricultural production, income sources and demand patterns across regions that are important to take into account in analyzing the impacts of external shocks and formulating development strategies. Earlier work on PNG by Schmidt et al., (2021) explored the effects of Covid-related income and world rice price shocks with a partial equilibrium model of PNG’s rice economy. Diao et al., (2021) used a regional multi-market model to analyze broader effects of Covid-19 and other shocks to agriculture and household incomes in four regions of PNG. Various other studies, including Dorosh and Pradesha (2022) and Diao et al. (2024), used national computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of PNG to analyze exchange rate, terms of trade, and productivity shocks on various household groups. In this paper, we extend these earlier analyses through use of a new regional CGE model that utilizes recent household survey data, including the 2023 IFPRI PNG rural household survey. The plan of this paper is as follows. The next section provides an overview of agriculture and economic growth in PNG over the last decade, highlighting the almost constant share of agriculture in GDP and very low per capita agricultural GDP growth rate. Section 3 describes the regional disaggregation of the PNG economy and the structure of household incomes and expenditure as reflected in the economywide database, the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), used in this analysis. Section 4 then presents a summary of the regional economywide model. (Details of the model are found in the annexes and in the references included in the paper.) Design of the model simulations and simulation results covering investments in agriculture and transport sectors, as well as world price shocks are discussed in Section 5. Chapter 6 concludes with a summary of the main findings and policy implications, as well as suggested areas for further work.

Year published

2025

Authors

Dorosh, Paul A.; Fang, Peixun; Pradesha, Angga

Citation

Dorosh, Paul A.; Fang, Peixun; and Pradesha, Angga. 2025. Regional implications of public investments and external shocks in Papua New Guinea: An economywide analysis. Papua New Guinea Food Policy Strengthening Working Paper 8. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178296

Country/Region

Papua New Guinea

Keywords

Oceania; Public Investment; Shock; Agriculture; Models; Agricultural Production

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Working Paper

Commercialization of Papua New Guinea’s vegetable sector: Identifying constraints using quantitative, qualitative, and large language model methods

2025Fang, Peixun; Anamo, Iga; Gimiseve, Harry; Hayoge, Glen; Mukerjee, Rishabh; Schmidt, Emily; Zhang, Xiaobo
Details

Commercialization of Papua New Guinea’s vegetable sector: Identifying constraints using quantitative, qualitative, and large language model methods

This paper evaluates the constraints within Papua New Guinea’s vegetable sector, drawing on large scale household surveys, extensive qualitative interviews with key stakeholders, and Large Language Model (LLM) methods. Our survey data reveal that vegetable production is ubiquitous, with almost all households surveyed (91%) growing at least one vegetable. Indigenous varieties, such as leafy greens (96%) and fresh beans (69%), are widely cultivated across regions, while high-value vegetables like onion (17%) and tomato (19%) show more regional concentration. Over half (53%) of PNG vegetable farmers sell their produce, with farmers located in the nonseasonal highlands agro-ecological area leading in market participation (66%), contributing to an overall commercialization rate of 24% (defined as the share of pro duction sold). However, modern input use, particularly improved seed adoption, significantly lags behind output commercialization in all agroecological zones except the islands survey areas. The quantitative analysis, using the PNG Rural Household Survey 2023, and the qualitative analysis, drawing from both manual review and LLM-assisted processing of in-depth interview notes, consistently identify poor feeder roads as critical bottlenecks for every stakeholder across PNG’s vegetable value chain. Beyond transportation, these interviews repeatedly highlighted persistent seed supply shortages and high seed costs as significant hurdles. Since PNG depends on imported vegetable seeds, several structural and procedural barriers contribute to these shortages. These include potentially arduous quarantine procedures, limited foreign exchange for seed imports, and cumbersome permit processes, often leaving major distributors with insufficient stock. These reported bottlenecks may contribute to the low improved seed adoption and use reflected in the household survey analysis.

Year published

2025

Authors

Fang, Peixun; Anamo, Iga; Gimiseve, Harry; Hayoge, Glen; Mukerjee, Rishabh; Schmidt, Emily; Zhang, Xiaobo

Citation

Fang, Peixun; Anamo, Iga; Gimiseve, Harry; Hayoge, Glen; Mukerjee, Rishabh; Schmidt, Emily; and Zhang, Xiaobo. 2025. Commercialization of Papua New Guinea’s vegetable sector: Identifying constraints using quantitative, qualitative, and large language model methods. Papua New Guinea Food Policy Strengthening Working Paper 7. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175558

Country/Region

Papua New Guinea

Keywords

Melanesia; Oceania; Asia; Vegetables; Large Language Models; Commercialization; Household Surveys; Artificial Intelligence; Value Chains; Value Chain

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Blogs

Improving agricultural value chain coordination and gender inclusiveness in Papua New Guinea
Research Post
 | 
December 20, 2022

Improving agricultural value chain coordination and gender inclusiveness in Papua New Guinea

By Lucia Carrillo, Peixun Fang, Katrina Kosec, and Emily Schmidt

Challenges and opportunities for women to engage in more profitable work.

COVID-19 and other shocks facing Papua New Guinea's food economy
Research Post
 | 
March 25, 2021

COVID-19 and other shocks facing Papua New Guinea’s food economy

By Emily Schmidt, Xinshen Diao, Paul Dorosh, and Peixun Fang

Modeling shows differering impacts for urban and rural households.